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Energy Security Fact Pack 217 @Securing_Energy #SAFEenergyfacts

ENERGY SECURITY FACT PACK Contents 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. QUARTER SUMMARY CHARTS OF THE QUARTER U.S. OIL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND TRADE GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS OIL DEPENDENCE AND ENERGY SECURITY SOLUTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES SAFE s Energy Security Fact Pack provides a data-driven overview of the latest trends in U.S. energy security, including domestic and global oil production and consumption, oil market dynamics, energy prices, consumer spending on oil, fuel efficiency, and alternative fuel vehicles. 1

QUARTER SUMMARY 217: Electric Mobility Ready to Roar The global oil market continues to tighten as a result of OPEC s extended November 216 agreement to cut 1.8 million barrels per day (mbd) of production, now planned to continue through the end of 218. OPEC s collective output cuts have drawn down commercial inventories, contributing to higher year-over-year (y-o-y) prices averaging $56 per barrel in September (Brent) [Page 24]. OPEC spare capacity increased 1. mbd y-o-y to nearly 2. mbd [Page 2]. Oil price volatility has been low for most of 217 but has the potential to erupt because of new Middle East tensions [Page 25]. Rising demand outside the OECD continues to stimulate non-opec supplies, which increased for a second consecutive quarter y-o-y in [Pages 16 to 18]. U.S. oil production continued to increase in, although it was temporarily interrupted by two major Gulf of Mexico hurricanes that collectively shut-in more than 1. mbd of supply [Page 21]. The EIA now forecasts domestic crude oil production to exceed 1 mbd by the end of next year, surpassing the 197 U.S. record [Pages 1 & 11]. Charts of the Quarter highlight growth in the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) market. Federal tax credits are essential to drive early adoption and help EVs become cost competitive with internal combustion engine vehicles. Consumer demand for EVs continues to rise, with 217 setting new records for purchases and vehicle model availability [Pages 4 & 3]. Although six models currently account for nearly two-thirds of sales, consumers can choose from a growing menu of models with better battery technology and declining fuel costs [Pages 5 to 7]. Consumers will have more choices as automakers introduce more EV models over the coming decade [Page 8]. 2

CHARTS OF THE QUARTER 217 Sees Record EV Sales Consumer demand for EVs continues to see strong growth. More than 14, EVs have been sold in the United States since the beginning of 217. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) account for 53% of 217 sales. 25, Units Sold 2, 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 15, 1, 5, Source: EC analysis based on data from HybridCars.com 4 8

CHARTS OF THE QUARTER EV Market is Increasingly Competitive Automakers Tesla, Nissan, General Motors, and Toyota have each introduced popular models that are increasing the competitiveness of the U.S. EV market. Six models account for nearly twothirds of total EV sales, including new entrants like the Chevy Bolt and 217 Toyota Prius. 1% 9% 8% Other Chevy Bolt EV 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: SAFE/EC analysis based on data from HybridCars.com Nissan Leaf EV Tesla Model X EV Toyota Prius PHEV Chevy Volt PHEV Tesla Model S EV 5 8

CHARTS OF THE QUARTER 217 Market Share Shows Even Mix The top-selling Chevy Volt PHEV, Toyota Prius PHEV, and Tesla Model S and Model X represent the majority of sales with between 14 and 11% market share. Released late last year, the upstart Chevy Bolt has 1% market share. 6 8

CHARTS OF THE QUARTER BEV Efficiency and Range Continue to Improve The average driving range for 217 EV models is now 14 miles, up from 96 in 212. At the same time, average costs have fallen considerably with more efficient batteries. The miles per gallon (of gasoline) equivalent used to determine fuel economy of new BEV models averaged 112 in 217. 6 U.S. Dollars Miles per Gallon (of Gasoline) Equivalent 115 5 11 4 15 3 1 Cost per mile of range (LHS) Average mpge (RHS) 2 212 213 214 215 216 217 Note: Cost per mile of range is calculated as the quotient of the median suggested retail price (MSRP) of new model year BEVs and range. Miles per gallon (of gasoline) equivalent (mpge) presents the average fuel economy of new model year BEVs. Data does not weigh for sales and includes the lowest-cost version of each vehicle model before federal and state incentives. Source: SAFE/EC analysis based on data from DOE, automaker press releases, and news reports. 95 7

CHARTS OF THE QUARTER Automakers Commit to All-Electric Future A growing number of available models and improved availability will underpin growth in EV sales. At least eight automakers have said they will introduce new EV models through 23, including GM, Ford, BMW, and Volkswagen. 23 VW Group Electrifies Entire 3-Car Lineup 7 223 Ford Produces 13 EV Models. GM Introduces 2 EV Models. 5 6 225 BMW Rolls Out 12 New BEV Models 218 GM Produces 2 EVs Within 18 Months 1 22 Jaguar Land Rover Electrifies its Entire New Lineup 2 3 219 All New Volvo Models Will Be Electric Or Hybrid 4 222 Renault, Nissan, and Mitsubishi Produce 12 BEV Models. Daimler Produces 5 Electric and Hybrid Models 8

U.S. OIL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND TRADE U.S. Oil Rig Count Growth Slows The U.S. oil rig count rose to a high of 768. Hurricanes Harvey and Nate, which impacted the Gulf Coast in late August and early October, together disrupted 1.8 mbd. Crude oil production nevertheless continued to grow reaching 9.6 mbd (+.2 mbd quarter-over-quarter (q-o-q)). 12, Thousand Barrels per Day Rig Count 1,8 1, 1,5 U.S. Crude Oil Production Oil Rig Count (RHS) 8, 6, EIA's Nov 218 forecast shows U.S. crude oil production reaching a high of 1.1 mbd. 1,2 9 4, 6 2, 3 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: EIA and Baker Hughes 1 8

U.S. OIL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND TRADE U.S. Oil Production Rebound Continues U.S. liquids production grew.2 mbd q-o-q in 217 (+.2 mbd, y-o-y). Inclusive of fuel ethanol and natural gas liquids, total U.S. liquids production is roughly 6.3 mbd higher than in 28. The United States is currently among the world s top three largest liquid fuels producers. 16 Million Barrels per Day 14 12 Crude Oil Fuel Ethanol NGLs 1 8 6 4 2 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA 11 1

U.S. OIL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND TRADE Transportation Fuel Demand Growth Slides U.S. demand for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel averaged 15 mbd in 217, +.6 mbd y-o-y. Total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) increased 3 million miles y-o-y (+.4%), continuing 14 consecutive quarters of growth. 1.2 Million Barrels per Day (Change, Y-o-Y) Million Miles per Day (Change, Y-o-Y) 4.9 3.6 2.3 1. -.3-1 -.6-2 -.9-3 Transport Fuels VMT (RHS) -1.2-4 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA 12 11

U.S. OIL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND TRADE Imports from OPEC Fall U.S. crude oil and petroleum product imports fell to 9.7 mbd in 217 (-.4 mbd y-o-y), breaking ten consecutive quarters of y-o-y increases. Imports from Saudi Arabia and Venezuela fell by.5 mbd q-o-q. OPEC accounted for roughly 31% of total U.S. imports. 16 Million Barrels per Day Saudi Arabia Venezuela Other OPEC 14 Canada Mexico Other Non-OPEC 12 1 8 6 4 2 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Note: 217 average calculated using July and August 217 data. SAFE Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA 13 11

U.S. OIL SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND TRADE U.S. Petroleum Trade Deficit Declines Although net imports have fallen by about two-thirds since 25, the United States continues to rely on imported crude oil. Petroleum s share of the trade deficit fell below 1% for the second time this decade. Total net petroleum imports fell to 4.5 mbd in (-.65 mbd y-o-y). 14 Million Barrels per Day Monthly Petroleum Trade Deficit (Percent of Total) 7% 12 6% 1 5% 8 4% 6 3% 4 2% 2 1% % -2-4 Petroleum Products Crude Oil Trade Deficit in Petroleum (RHS) -1% -2% 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA 14 13

GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS Global Oil Supplies Continue to Grow Global oil production increased in 217 to 98.3 mbd as Saudi cuts were offset by resurgent production elsewhere. The United States contributed approximately 59% of net global supply growth between 212 and 217. 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 Million Barrels per Day (Change, Y-o-Y) Global non-opec production has grown for three consecutive quarters. -2-3 -4-5 United States Liquids Saudi Arabia Crude OPEC NGLs Total Other non-opec Other OPEC Crude 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA 16 15

GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS Global Oil Demand Growth Keeps Steady Global oil demand grew 1.2 mbd y-o-y in 217 driven by growth in non-oecd countries (+1. mbd y-o-y). Demand in OECD countries grew to 47.5 mbd (+.2 mbd y-o-y). Global oil demand reached approximately 99. mbd in. 5 Million Barrels per Day (Change, Y-o-Y) 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 United States Other OECD China Other non-oecd Total 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA 17 16

GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS Non-OPEC Supply Continues Resurgence Non-OPEC supply increased for a second time q-o-q after four consecutive quarters of decline (+.9 mbd, y-o-y). Global oil demand growth outpaced non-opec liquids supply for ten the last quarters, and a trend last seen between 212 and 213. 5 Million Barrels per Day (Change, Y-o-Y) 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4-5 Global Demand Non-OPEC Liquids -6 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA 18

GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS Unplanned Crude Oil Outages Decline Global unplanned outages fell to 1.7 mbd in 217 (-.6 mbd q-o-q) as greater quantities of Nigerian and Libyan production returns to the market. OPEC outages fell.4 mbd q-o-q to 1.2 mbd, and non-opec outages decreased.1 mbd to.6 mbd q-o-q. 4. Million Barrels per Day 3.5 Non-OPEC Saudi Arabia Kuwait Iraq Libya Nigeria Iran 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 213 214 215 216 217 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA 19

GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS OPEC Spare Crude Oil Production Capacity Rises OPEC spare crude oil production capacity reached 2. mbd in 217 (+1. mbd y-o-y). This is equivalent to 2% of global consumption. The majority of OPEC s spare production capacity is held by Saudi Arabia. 1 Million Barrels per Day Percent 1 9 8 7 OPEC Spare Crude Oil Production Capacity Spare Capacity as a Percentage of World Liquids Consumption (RHS) 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA 2 21

GLOBAL OIL MARKET DYNAMICS Barrels at Risk Map Total oil supply outages fell to 1.5 mbd (-.4 mbd q-o-q) in 217. Weather events in the Gulf of Mexico shut-in significant supply in the United States. Political turbulence in Northern Iraq and Venezuela represent the most significant geopolitical supply risks. 21 2

OIL DEPENDENCE AND ENERGY SECURITY Light Truck Sales Continue Surge New light truck sales averaged 1.9 million units in 217, increasing by approximately.3 million units y-o-y. Light trucks now account for roughly 64% of light-duty vehicle sales, a 3. percentage point increase, y-o-y. 21 Million Units Percent Share (Light Truck Sales) 7 18 Light Truck Sales Car Sales Share (RHS) 6 15 5 12 4 9 3 6 2 3 1 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from BEA 23 24

OIL DEPENDENCE AND ENERGY SECURITY Brent and WTI Prices Rise Oil and product prices saw moderate increases in, with the WTI and Brent spread widening to $4.48 per barrel between July and September 217. September average Brent = $56.15/bbl, WTI = $49.82/bbl, U.S. gasoline = $2.57/gal. 2 Dollars per Barrel 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Price of WTI Crude Oil Price of U.S. Gasoline Price of Brent Crude Oil Price of U.S. Diesel 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA 24 23

OIL DEPENDENCE AND ENERGY SECURITY Oil Price Volatility Dips on Shale Recovery Oil price volatility has been low and relatively stable through most of 217.,, and volatility were 25%, 26%, and 27%, respectively. 3-day volatility at the end of was 28%, reflecting continued growth in U.S. crude oil production. 15 Dollars per Barrel Percent Volatility 125 Monthly Volatility (Annualized) (RHS) Oil Price 12 1 9 75 6 5 3 25 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA 25 24

OIL DEPENDENCE AND ENERGY SECURITY Oil Intensity Steady as Household Expenditures Increase U.S. household spending on petroleum fuels increased approximately $29 billion y-o-y to $294 billion in 217, reflective of the steady increase in retail gasoline prices. The oil intensity of the economy has remained steady at.42 barrels per $1, of GDP..65 Oil Intensity (Barrels of Oil Consumed per $1, of GDP) Billion Dollars (Annualized) 6 Gasoline and Other Motor Fuels (RHS) Fuel Oil and Other Fuels (RHS).6 5 Other (RHS) Oil Intensity.55 4.5 3.45 2.4 1.35 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from EIA and BEA 26 8

SOLUTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES Electricity and Natural Gas Prices Remain Stable Liquid fuel prices have experienced substantial volatility since 2. The prices of compressed natural gas (CNG) and electricity, however, have remained relatively stable during the same time period. 6 Dollars per Gasoline Gallon Equivalent 5 4 3 2 1 Gasoline E85 CNG Propane Diesel B2 B99/B1 Electricity 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 216 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from Clean Cities Alternative Fuel Price Reports 28 26

SOLUTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES New Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy Ratings Stable The average fuel economy rating of new light-duty vehicles increased slightly in 217 to 25.3 mpg (+.1 mpg q-o-q), continuing a two-year trend. MY 217 fuel economy is 25.2 mpg, approximately 12% higher than 21 levels. 26 Miles per Gallon 25 24 Model Year Average Monthly Average MY 213 MY 214 MY 215 MY 216 MY 217 23 MY 212 22 21 2 MY 28 MY 29 MY 21 MY 211 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Note: Average sales-weighted fuel-economy rating of purchased new light-duty vehicles. Source: SAFE analysis based on data from Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle, University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute 29 27

SOLUTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES Plug-in Electric Vehicle Sales Reach New Heights Over 53, plug-in electric vehicles were sold in (+16% y-o-y and +11% q-o-q), crossing the 5,-vehicle threshold for the first time in the best quarter to date. Popular models included Tesla s Model S and Model X, Toyota s Prius, and Chevrolet s Volt. 6, Units Sold 5, 4, GM Nissan Ford Tesla Toyota BMW Others Volkswagen Fiat Daimler 3, 2, 1, 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: SAFE analysis based on data from HybridCars.com 3 28

SOLUTIONS AND ALTERNATIVES Advanced Fueling Stations Continue to Climb The number of advanced fueling stations nationwide increased 122% between 213 and 217, a net addition of approximately 33,3 stations. The vast majority of these new additions (95%) were for electric charging. 6 Count at End of Period (Thousands) Propane LNG Hydrogen CNG Biodiesel E85 Electric 5 4 3 2 1 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 217 217 Note: Starting in 211, electric charge equipment was counted by the plug rather than by the geographic location. This is different than other fuels, which only count the geographic location regardless of how many dispensers or nozzles are on site. Source: Alternative Fuels Data Center 31 31

ENERGY SECURITY FACT PACK About, Links, and Contact ABOUT Securing America s Future Energy (SAFE) is an action-oriented, nonpartisan organization that aims to reduce America s dependence on oil. Near-total dependence on petroleum in the transportation sector undermines the nation s economic and national security, and constrains U.S. foreign policy. To combat these threats, SAFE advocates for expanded domestic production of U.S. oil and gas resources, continued improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency, and transportation sector innovations including electric vehicles, natural gas trucks, and autonomous vehicles. SAFE s Energy Security Fact Pack, launched in 214, provides a data-driven overview of the latest trends in U.S. energy security, including domestic and global oil production and consumption, oil market dynamics, energy prices, consumer spending on oil, fuel efficiency, and alternative fuel vehicles. LINKS SAFE: www.secureenergy.org Electrification Coalition: www.electrificationcoalition.org The Fuse: www.energyfuse.org @Securing_Energy #SAFEenergyfacts CONTRIBUTORS Paul Ruiz, Policy Analyst Skylar Drennen, Policy Intern MEDIA CONTACT For media inquires please contact Bridget Bartol, bbartol@secureenergy.org or (22) 461-2361. 32 32

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