Oerlikon Solar
Disclaimer i This presentation is based on information currently available to management. The forward-looking statements contained herein could be substantially impacted by risks and influences that are not foreseeable at present, so that actual results may vary materially from those anticipated, expected or projected.
Oerlikon Solar at a glance World leading manufacturer of proven end to end thin-film silicon PV solutions More than 730.000 000 manufactured panels produced 309 MCHF Sales in 2007 From 350 to 850 Employees in 2008 More than 200 global customer personnel at 13 locations in 9 countries
Oerlikon Solar Revenues 2006 2007 2008 More than 100% year on year revenue growth.
R & D Investments Over 300 scientists and engineers Over 200 patents and 300 patent applications 2006 2007 2008 applications
Business snapshot Oerlikon Solar has become a leading gp player in thin-film PV. The technology is well positioned to deliver competitive LCOE. Fastest growing sector of the PV market. Delivering all projects on schedule and on performance. Greater then 100% year on year revenue growth. Technology roadmap on schedule for 0.70 $/Wp by 2010. Proven ability to scale.
Global l energy demandd Total electricity production mix Gas 20% Hydro 16% Nuclear 15% Oil 6% Other 2% Wind 29,3% Waste Geothermal 14,9% 13,4% Biomass 39,1% Other 2,4% Solar PV 0,6% Solar Thermal 02% 0,2% Tide 0,1% Coal 41% Source: EIA PV market opportunity is effectively unlimited
Growth predictions 25,000 Annual PV module demand 20,000 MWp 15,000 10,000000 5,000 CAGR 2008 2013 32% 0 1 2,856 9,366 6,529 4,754 4,582 2,839 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 OCS (Base Case) Citi Nov 25, '08 DB Jan 21, 09 LLC, Nov '08 Navigant, Nov '08 EuPD Dec '08 1 8,072 Growth will return in 2010 when financial markets recover.
Thin-Film PV Segment Accumulated installed capacity GWp 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 CAGR Thin-Film 83% c-si 33% Total Capacity 41% c-si Thin Film (OS) Thin Film installed capacity growing rapidly
Thin-film annual manufacturing capacity additions 6,000 5,000 4,000 50% growth MW 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Growth revised from 70% pre crisis.
Highlights ht in 2008 What we have achieved We became a recognized technology leader Executive management team strengthened Manufacturing capacity expanded in Europe Strategic manufacturing partnership with Flextronics Expanded low cost sourcing supply chain in Asia Expanded service operations base in Asia Pilot line officially opened in Switzerland More than 730,000 panels manufactured by our customers Installed capacity now over 350 MW
Highlights ht in 2008 Technology achievements Launched: amorphihigh PERFORMANCE > 7% efficiency Received: IEC master certification from TÜV Achieved: Champion cell above 13% efficiency i for micromorph
Highlights ht in 2008 New customers in production Full scale amorphous end to end production at Sun Well (Taiwan) Start of first micromorph production Start of first micromorph production at Inventux (Germany)
Project update Customer Technology Type Contract Move-In SOP Signed On-Time On-Time MW Bosch/Ersol Amorphous Equipment 40 Schüco Amorphous Equipment R&D Schott Amorphous Equipment 40 CSG Amorphous Equipment 20 Sunwell Amorphous End-to-End 50 Inventux Micromorph Equipment 30 Next Solar Micromorph End-to-End 30 Tianwei Amorphous End-to-End 46 Auria Solar Micromorph End-to-End 60 Pramac Micromorph End-to-End 30 Sunwell (2) Micromorph End-to-End 60 Sunwell (3) Micromorph End-to-End 120 Gadir Amorphous End-to-End 40 Chint Micromorph Equipment 40 Total more than 600 MW
Business snapshot Short term challenge, long term opportunity In the first half of 2008 Oerlikon Solar established a strong market position New orders Order targets were where being met. g met. Demonstrated technical leadership with highest performance. All projects delivered on time All projects meeting performance promises. And then the financial crisis hit! New orders delayed due to the inability for customers to get financing. Potential for project execution delay on some existing orders due to possible customer financing delays. Expect 6 to 12 months before growth returns. Customers build plants today for markets in 2010. Fundamental need and benefits of PV have not changed. Political winds are favorable.
Grid parity: ahead of the solar PV market Potential for explosive growth in demand d upon convergence Electricity from Solar PV is becoming cheaper Demand Supply cost ($/kwh) ice, Solar PV US-Average price of electricity: 8,6 cents/kwh Grid Parity Rising Grid Costs Grid pr Potential for over-supply
Why thin-film instead of c-si? Absolute lowest cost of electricity! Much lower manufacturing cost then c-si Lower efficiency does result in slightly higher BOS cost However, overall result is lowest cost of electricity Better performance at higher operating temperatures Better performance in diffused light, wider range of incidence angles More KWhrs for every KWp Higher margins in manufacturing Higher rates of return on investment for solar projects
Pi Price development along PV value chain c-si panel (Sharp ND series, 2009 13% efficiency) Equipment Manufacturer Module Manufacturer BOS Suppliers Solar Farm Integrator Solar Farm Owner Wholesale Utilities (PPA) ($/W)5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 2.10 0.90 (30%) Inverters Mechanical 3.00 Electrical Land 1.41 4.41 O&M Insurance Overhead 0.34 4.75 Cost of Electricity 0.21 $/kwh 10 MW project in California including ITC Accelerated Depreciation 55% Equity@12% 45% Debt@9% 0.5 Grid Parity approx: 00 0.0 Module Cost Module Margin Module Price BOS Price System Price Ownership Costs (NPV) Cost to Own The System 0.12 $ / KWh
Pi Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon Solar, 2009 9% efficiency) Equipment Manufacturer ($/W) 5.0 Module Manufacturer BOS Suppliers Solar Farm Integrator Solar Farm Owner Wholesale Utilities (PPA) 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 1.60 0.69 (30%) Assumption 2.29 Inverters Mechanical Electrical Land O&M Insurance 172 1.72 Overhead 4.01 030 0.30 4.31 Cost of Electricity 0.19 $/kwh 10 MW project in California including ITC Accelerated Depreciation 55% Equity@12% 45% Debt@9% Grid Parity approx: 00 0.0 Module Cost Module Margin Module Price BOS Price System Price Ownership Costs (NPV) Cost to Own The System 0.12 $ / KWh
Pi Price development along PV value chain Micromorph panel (Oerlikon roadmap 2010) ($/W) 5.0 Equipment Manufacturer Module Manufacturer BOS Suppliers Solar Farm Integrator Solar Farm Owner Wholesale Utilities (PPA) 4.5 4.0 3.5 Grid Parity! Cost of Electricity 0.13 $/kwh 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 00 0.0 0.70 Module Cost 0.29 (30%) Module Margin 0.99 Module Price Inverters Mechanical Electrical Land 159 1.59 BOS Price O&M Insurance Overhead 0.19 2.58 277 2.77 System Price Ownership Costs (NPV) Cost to Own The System 10 MW project in California including ITC Accelerated Depreciation 55% Equity@12% 45% Debt@9% Grid Parity approx: 0.13 $ / KWh *For Equipment Offered in 2010
Production capacity ramps Rapid learning curve Ramp-Up Phase 20'000 18'000 FAB A FAB B KW kw 16'000 14'000 12'000 10'000 200% improvement of production levels at week 21 8'000 8000 6'000 4'000 2'000 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 Weeks Weeks since SOP SOP Project production ramp-up faster than expected
Production yield ramps Rapid learning curve Ramp-Up Yield 120 FAB B FAB A % 100 80 60 40 20 Target yields achieved after four weeks Yield is much more stable compared to earlier projects 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 Weeks Weeks since after SOP SOP Project yield ramp-up progress better than expected
Short term challenges, long term opportunities Solutions for a solar powered world Thin-film is the fastest growing PV segment, creating a 45 BUSD total solar market opportunity by 2012. On Oerlikon track to Solar achieve on grid track parity to offer by 2010. grid parity solutions by 2010. Proven solutions manufacturing for high volume solutions thin-film silicon solar module production More than with 730,000 more than panels 700 000 already produced produced panels.
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