U.S. SOLAR ENERGY INDUSTRY: NATIONAL DYNAMICS & STATE-LEVEL IMPACTS Rick Umoff Regulatory Counsel and Director State Affairs, SEIA December 14, 2017 www.seia.org
U.S. SOLAR INDUSTRY: SETTING THE STAGE December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 2
The Grid Has Never Been More Diverse 100% U.S. Electricity Generation, 1950-2016 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1950 1953 1956 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Source: EIA Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Solar Wind Other December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 3
Grid Already Accommodates Large Penetration of Renewables 15 U.S. States already see solar & wind penetrations of 10% or above, with no reduction in reliability. Nationally, Solar & Wind represented 7% of total generation in 2016 December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 4
Share of New Capacity Additions (%) Solar s Share of New Capacity Has Grown 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Annual Additions of New Electric Capacity 4% 2% 3% 4% 2% 9% 7% 24% 29% 25% 10% 39% 41% 1% 10% 0% 32% 47% 16% 43% 29% 6% 26% 0% 29% 30% 20% 10% 0% 51% 36% 31% 39% 27% 27% 30% 4% 8% 9% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Solar Natural Gas Coal Wind Other December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 5
The Solar Industry Today 49.3 GW of solar installed through Q3 2017 Enough to power 9.5 million American homes 68% 10-year average annual growth rate 260,000 Workers employed in the solar industry: 1.6 million individual installations nationwide December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 6
Yearly Installed Solar Capacity (MWdc) Deployment Forecast Total solar deployment will more than double over the next 5 years, reaching 100 GW by 2021 16,000 U.S. Solar PV Deployment Forecast 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E Residential (PV) Non-residential (PV) Utility (PV) December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 7
$/watt-dc Prices have fallen by 10 18% over last 12 months $4.00 Installed Solar PV Prices $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Residential Non-Residential Utility-Scale (Fixed Tilt) Utility-Scale (Tracker) December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 8
Continuing to Create Jobs December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 9
Solar Growth Coast to Coast TOP 10 STATES (MW) 1. California 20,163 2. North Carolina 3,785 3. Arizona 3,336 4. Nevada 2,585 5. New Jersey 2,234 6. Massachusetts 1,898 7. Texas 1,847 8. Utah 1,566 9. Georgia 1,505 10. New York 1,176 Source: SEIA/GTM Research December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 10
OPPORTUNITIES FOR STATES December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 11
Solar and Wind are Price Competitive With All Other Energy Technologies Map shows the cheapest electricity technology for each county in the United states. Utility-scale solar (purple) is the cheapest source of electricity in large portions of the Southwest, West Coast and Southeast Wind (light green) is cheapest throughout Midwest, Great Plains, Northeast December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 12
Helping Schools Save Money 5,500 K-12 schools have gone solar, more than twice as many as there were three years ago December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 13
Fortune 100 Companies are Going Solar Top 25 Corporate users, led by Target, have installed more than 1 GW of total solar capacity They are choosing solar because it saves them money Clear and consistent financing options are critical to grow this market: C-PACE can help December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 14
RISKS & THREATS TO SOLAR GROWTH December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 15
Net Metering At the end of 2017, 36 states will be at grid parity for rooftop solar. If Net Metering export rate compensation is cut in half, only a handful will remain at grid parity We are committed to working with utilities to develop the next generation of net metering and rate design; consumers freedom to choose their energy is paramount December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 16
Reforming State Electricity Markets TX: Advocate against demand charges and interconnection fees in the El Paso Electric rate case, and efforts at the PUCT and ERCOT to maintain fair treatment of USP. MA: Fighting to get the NEM caps raised once again in the Commonwealth to align with the new incentive program. NV: Enacted new NEM policies that will reopen the state s residential market. But, challenges remain: Gov. Sandoval vetoed important community solar and RPS bills NC: Second largest solar state is jeopardized by harmful PURPA proposals, rooftop solar will continue to face strong headwinds CA: Working toward sensible nextgeneration solar policies in the nation s leading solar market. NY: Continuing to engage with REV process to maintain solar support and develop successor tariffs for net metering FL: Looking ahead to 2018 now that legislation has opened up the market December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 17
Installed Solar Capacity (MW) Jobs Section 201 Trade Case The proposed remedies will lead to job losses of 48,000 63,000 in 2018 and 60,000 84,000 in 2020, relative to baseline SolarWorld Trade Relief Proposal Impact on Solar Deployment and Jobs vs Baseline 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000-2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 - Installed Capacity (SolarWorld Proposal) Installed Capacity (Baseline) Jobs (SolarWorld Proposal) Jobs (Baseline) December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 18
Federal Tax Reform Preserving the solar Investment Tax Credit (ITC) is critical Also working to fight poison pill BEAT tax provision, which would severely limit the viability of tax equity financing December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 19
Federal Electricity Market Manipulation Federal Energy Regulatory Commission working to respond to DOE proposal regarding pricing for grid resiliency, which would essentially subsidize coal and nuclear power generation. This would stifle healthy competition in the energy industry December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 20
THANK YOU December 14, 2017 www.seia.org 21