TRENDS OF EUROPEAN PV MARKET: INVESTORS PERSPECTIVE Pius Hüsser, Director, Nova Energie GmbH IEA PVPS Task 1 Switzerland Vice President Swiss Solar Industry Association Swissolar Board Member Edisun Power Europe AG
DO WE HAVE A PROBLEME? 40000 IEA PVPS Trends Report 2010: Figure 1a - Cumulative installed grid-connected and off-grid PV power in the reporting countries 35000 Installed PV power (MW) 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 Grid-connected Off-grid 5000 0
SARASIN SOLAR REPORT NOVEMBER 2011 SOLAR INDUSTRY: SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST IN A FIERCELY COMPETITIVE MARKETPLACE, COURTESY OF MATTHIAS FAWER, SARASIN, SWITZERLAND Sustainable Swiss Private Banking since 1841.
EUROPEAN ELECTRICITY MARKET & PV SUPPLY OECD Europe: 3460 TWh supplied in 2010 PV electricity production in Europe (estimates): 28-30 TWh (<1%) end of 2010 46-48 TWh (1.3%) end of 2011
PV PERSPECTIVES IN EUROPE PV PLANTS up to 10% of consumption within 10 to 20 years with PV Per year: 0.5% of OECD-Europe Electricity consumption => 17 TWh => 12 to 15 GW newly installed capacity => 15 to 25 Billion Euro investment needed => huge opportunities for investors
SIDE BUSINESS - 1 Investment in Maintenance Companies Maintenance costs = 1 to 2 Eurocents / kwh => 10 to 20 Mi0 / TWh => Market will grow by at least 150 Mio per year
SIDE BUSINESS - 2 Investment along the value chain Cell materials (solar grade silicon etc) Cell/Modul production Inverters, Cabling Support structures Testing/Metering/Controlling Equipment Equipment manufacturer Engineering/EPC
INVESTMENT IN PV PLANTS Key parameters for PV plant investment (Triple I): Irradiation Interest Rate Investment costs The cost of a kwh in Germany can be the same as in Italy due to different Interest rates and Investment / maintenance costs
RISKS (FOR PV PLANT INVESTORS) FiT changes to fast Retroactive reduction of FiT (Spain/Czech Republic) increasing interest rates over time non cooperative utilities (technical issues, hidden barriers) new operational requirements (52 Hertz problem / peak shaving etc.) Growth restriction due to bottle necks with transmission lines / lack of storage capacity at peak hours
BUT THERE ARE STILL OPPORTUNITIES Foto von Mallorca? Mallorca, Spain Nov. 30, 2011 2 MWp Photo: Edisun Power Europe AG, Switzerland
SARASIN SOLAR REPORT NOVEMBER 2011 SOLAR INDUSTRY: SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST IN A FIERCELY COMPETITIVE MARKETPLACE, COURTESY OF MATTHIAS FAWER, SARASIN, SWITZERLAND Counrty Attractiveness Matrix, Large Plants, Sarasin, Nov 2011 * NSW in Australia, Flandern in Belgium, Ontario in Canada, California in the USA
SARASIN SOLARREPORT NOVEMBER 2011 SOLAR INDUSTRY: SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST IN A FIERCELY COMPETITIVE MARKETPLACE, COURTESY OF MATTHIAS FAWER, SARASIN, SWITZERLAND Newly installed PV capacity (MW) CAGR* 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 10-15 Germany 3,845 7,411 5,945 5,400 4,700 4,800 4,850-8% Italy 723 5,632 2,965 3,500 3,650 3,500 3,000-12% France 250 719 1,215 800 960 1,050 1,150 10% Spain 60 392 415 500 600 695 795 15% Slovakia - 145 345 150 175 180 200 7% Belgium 292 420 285 320 330 340 350-4% Greece 36 150 320 440 640 770 925 44% Czech Republic 411 1,490 150 120 140 175 225-31% UK 10 40 230 200 155 170 195 37% Portugal 35 29 110 150 200 250 320 62% Switzerland 26 37 85 140 200 240 280 50% Turkey - 1 6 15 25 50 95 149% Rest of Europe 33 120 255 480 870 1,450 2,200 79% Europe 5,721 16,586 12,326 12,215 12,645 13,670 14,585-3% USA 473 918 2,245 3,550 5,325 7,800 9,900 61% Canada 62 196 375 600 750 800 900 36% North America 535 1,114 2,620 4,150 6,075 8,600 10,800 58% Japan 483 991 1,375 2,200 2,700 3,250 3,750 30% China 200 500 1,950 2,500 3,100 3,850 4,850 58% India 30 80 450 810 1,300 1,850 2,600 101% South Korea 84 131 160 215 285 375 490 30% Rest of Asia 186 300 425 550 800 1,050 1,400 36% Asia 983 2,002 4,360 6,275 8,185 10,375 13,090 46% Australia 80 383 450 480 500 550 700 13% South Africa - 1 55 150 250 380 450 239% Rest of the World 180 250 1,150 1,850 3,000 4,500 6,300 91% Sustainable Swiss Private Banking Total newly since installed 1841. 7,499 20,336 20,961 25,120 30,655 38,075 45,925 18% Annual growth rate 26% 171% 3% 20% 22% 24% 21%
SARASIN SOLAR REPORT NOVEMBER 2011 SOLAR INDUSTRY: SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST IN A FIERCELY COMPETITIVE MARKETPLACE, COURTESY OF MATTHIAS FAWER, SARASIN, SWITZERLAND Moving Markets, Sarasin, Nov 2011 Sustainable Swiss Private Banking since 1841.
SARASIN SOLAR REPORT NOVEMBER 2011 SOLAR INDUSTRY: SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST IN A FIERCELY COMPETITIVE MARKETPLACE, COURTESY OF MATTHIAS FAWER, SARASIN, SWITZERLAND GLOBAL PV LONG TERM FORCAST Sustainable Swiss Private Banking since 1841.
SARASIN SOLAR REPORT NOVEMBER 2011 SOLAR INDUSTRY: SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST IN A FIERCELY COMPETITIVE MARKETPLACE, COURTESY OF MATTHIAS FAWER, SARASIN, SWITZERLAND SARASIN FITNESS RATING OF MAJOR COMPANIES Sustainable Swiss Private Banking since 1841.
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