Weekly Report 2 August 212 Weekly Report ENERGY STATISTICS 212, WEEK 33 OIL DISTILLATES NATURAL GAS COAL CO2 ELECTRICITY EXCHANGE RATES This document may not be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, for any purpose, without our prior written permission.
Notes 2 August 212 Note on EMP structural prices This report contains a range of theoretical curves, called EMP structural prices. The EMP structural prices are developed by EnergyMarketPrice analysts on the basis of a range of criteria pertinent for the respective markets. Specifically, oil EMP structural price takes into consideration US refinery capacity, crude runs, EIA crude stock levels and speculative positions in crude oil at NYMEX. Electricity EMP structural prices are constructed on the basis of modeled oil, natural gas, uranium, coal, carbon emissions transposed to the national power parks (taking also into account nuclear outages, were relevant). These curves have as a sole aim to aid understanding the influence of different factors on real market prices. These curves should not be used for any commercial quotations. Note on market views This report contains a range of flashes indicating the expected market trend for the short term. Upward flashes indicate that the market price is expected to increase. Downward flashes indicate that the market price is expected to decrease. Straight flashes indicate that the market price is expected to remain in the range in the short term. The expectations are based on EnergyMarketPrice analysts assessment, and there should be no liability on their part related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.
Overview 2 August 212 Oil Worldwide Crude oil rose to a three-month peak during last week, but retreated later on talks of a possible release of U.S. strategic petroleum reserves and expectations that North Sea output will rebound after maintenance curbs production in September. Speculators cut their net long U.S. positions. Natural Gas Wholesale prices rose as the system was undersupplied. In Belgium, the weekly average of spot prices rose by 1%, while the indicator gained 2% in Germany and France. Further out on the curve, prices gained around 1% on concerns of a gas supply squeeze in winter. CO2 EU carbon prices hit a four-week high as coal and German power prices held onto recent gains and traders speculated that energy prices would move higher amid hopes of decisive action to combat the euro zone s debt crisis. Technical traders said that the next resistance level is at 7.85 euros. Europe Distillates Gas oil and Heavy Fuel Oil 3.5% ARA rose by around 2%. Refining margins fell slightly in quiet summer trade but market participants expect a recovery. European refineries are due to cut capacity in autumn due to maintenance, while governments are rushing to boost stockpiles. Coal Physical prompt coal retreated from earlier highs as Colombia's main coal railway said it would resume operations after the end of a 25-day strike which cut exports by more than half. Physical prompt coal prices softened by 2.3% last week after rising by 6% on Colombian force majeure. Electricity Cal213 prices gained 1% in Belgium and around.5% in the Netherlands and France, on higher oil and natural gas prices. Spot power climbed by around 7% in weekly average in Belgium and France as a continuing heat wave boosted consumption.
Brent oil Heavy fuel oil Gas oil UK gas 212 (NBP) Dutch gas 212 (TTF) German gas 212 (BUD) European coal CO2 (EUAs) German power 212 French power 212 Belgian power 212 Dutch power 212 UK power 212 Nordic power 212 Italian power 212 Iberian power 212 Overview 2 August 212 of main energy products in last 3 days 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% %
Oil 2 August 212 Oil Price Brent Oil Week 33 113,71 Previous week 112,95 +,67% 12 115 11 15 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 WTI Brent in USD/tonne Gasoil Week 33 979,75 Previous week 959,5 1 98 96 94 92 9 88 86 84 82 +2,11% in USD/tonne Brent crude price has risen by 5,9% since the beginning of 212, and increased by 6,4% during the last 3 calendar days. Compared to the 212 average to date (112,1 USD/bbl) the current price is 1,5% higher. Brent crude EMP structural price is currently estimated at 122,7 USD/bbl, or 7,9% higher than the actual price,which suggests some upward potential for Brent. NYMEX crude price has fallen by 2,9% since the beginning of 212, and increased by 5% during the last 3 days. Compared to the 212 average (96,4 USD/bbl) the current price is,4% lower. Heavy fuel oil price has risen by 4,7% since the beginning of 212, and increased by 5,3% during the last 3 days. Compared to the 212 average (643,8 USD/bbl) the current price is % higher. Gas oil price has risen by 6% since the beginning of 212, and increased by 6,6% during the last 3 days. Compared to the 212 average (948,8 USD/bbl) the current price is 3,3% higher. 66 65 64 63 62 61 6 59 58 57 56 55 Heavy Fuel Oil 3.5% ARA Week 33 644 Previous week 631 +2,6% in USD/tonne Oil retreats from three-month peak, but remains high Crude oil rose to a three-month peak during last week, but retreated later on talks of a possible release of U.S. strategic petroleum reserves and expectations that North Sea output will rebound after maintenance curbs production in September. The front-month Brent price managed a small gain for the week, while U.S. crude posted a 3.38% weekly increase. It was the third straight weekly gain for Brent and U.S. crude. North Sea production curbs, escalating geopolitical tensions over Syria's civil conflict and the dispute over Iran's nuclear program and hopes that central banks will provide more stimulus had combined to pull crude prices up. Speculators cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions. Gas oil and Heavy Fuel Oil 3.5% ARA rose by around 2%. Refining margins fell slightly in quiet summer trade but market participants expect a recovery in the weeks ahead. A number of European refineries are due to cut capacity in autumn due to maintenance, while governments are rushing to boost stockpiles of crude oil and fuel.
Focus 2 August 212 World power costs and gas prices NUS Deutschland GmbH, the Duesseldorf-based German NUS division, produced the annual ranking of world power costs for industry. Costs were based on prices on June 1 for the supply of 1, kilowatt with 45 hours use per annum, typical of a sizeable industrial manufacturer. The prices excluded value added tax. The percentage change was calculated on dollar basis, using local currencies in order to eliminate currency movement distortion, and then expressed in euros. For natural gas, the 212 survey showed both deregulated and liberalised prices on June 1 exclusive of value-added tax and based on a monthly consumption of 1.25 million kwh typical of a medium-sized industrial manufacturer. POWER COSTS RANK COUNTRY COST $ YR/YR PCT CENTS/KWH CHANGE 1 Italy 2.23 + 18.4 2 Germany 15.15-5.8 3 Portugal 13.63 + 12.1 4 Spain 13.52 + 1.4 5 Britain 12.45-12.3 6 Belgium 11.92-9.7 7 Australia 11.68 + 27.8 8 Netherlands 11.28-6.9 9 Austria 11.5-12.6 1 Poland 9.3 +.3 11 S. Africa 9.13 + 23.1 12 U.S. 8.89-6.2 13 France 8.76 + 5.1 14 Finland 8.64-17.7 15 Sweden 7.95-22.6 16 Canada 7.58 + 1.4 GAS PRICES RANK COUNTRY COST $ YR/YR PCT CENTS/KWH CHANGE 1 Sweden 1.35 + 2.2 2 S. Africa 7.12 + 24.3 3 Finland 7.1 + 1.9 4 Germany 5.33 + 5.3 5 Portugal 4.92 + 6.6 6 Italy 4.9 + 2.7 7 Austria 4.76 + 4.9 8 Spain 4.35 + 11.8 9 Britain 4.18-5.5 1 France 4.15-9.5 11 Belgium 4.1 + 1.2 12 Netherlands 4. +.3 13 Poland 3.91 + 7.2 14 Australia 3.29 + 1.8 15 U.S. 1.83-27.8 16 Canada 1.78-24. Natural gas prices in most European countries rose, with the exception of Britain and France, it said. German gas prices have become less susceptible to the oil price, to which they have been linked traditionally. But they could increase over the next months due to the loss of nuclear supply, which could stir local demand, and due to general geopolitical risks. Source: Reuters
1.1.28 1.2.28 1.3.28 1.4.28 1.5.28 1.6.28 1.7.28 1.8.28 1.9.28 1.1.28 1.11.28 1.12.28 1.1.29 1.2.29 1.3.29 1.4.29 1.5.29 1.6.29 1.7.29 1.8.29 1.9.29 1.1.29 1.11.29 1.12.29 1.1.21 1.2.21 1.3.21 1.4.21 1.5.21 1.6.21 1.7.21 1.8.21 1.9.21 1.1.21 1.11.21 1.12.21 1.1.211 1.2.211 1.3.211 1.4.211 1.5.211 1.6.211 1.7.211 1.8.211 1.9.211 1.1.211 1.11.211 1.12.211 1.1.212 1.2.212 1.3.212 1.4.212 1.5.212 1.6.212 1.7.212 Oil 2 August 212 Structural Price 17 15 13 11 EMP Structural price 9 7 EMP Structural price+speculation Oil 5 3 in USD/bbl Oil rose on fundamentals after falling on decreased speculation The EMP price, based on US refinery capacity and crude runs shows a structural increase of fundamentals, but speculation is less significant on macro economic news. Brent oil price fell close to 9 USD/bbl as hedge funds and other large investors reduced their net long positions. There is a high correlation with financial indicators. Oil structural price is a theoretical EMP modeled price based on US refinery capacity, crude runs, EIA crude stock levels and speculative positions in crude oil at NYMEX.
1.1.21 1.2.21 1.3.21 1.4.21 1.5.21 1.6.21 1.7.21 1.8.21 1.9.21 1.1.21 1.11.21 1.12.21 1.1.21 1.2.21 1.3.21 1.4.21 1.5.21 1.6.21 1.7.21 1.8.21 1.9.21 1.1.21 1.11.21 1.12.21 1.1.211 1.2.211 1.3.211 1.4.211 1.5.211 1.6.211 1.7.211 1.8.211 1.9.211 1.1.211 1.11.211 1.12.211 1.1.21 1.2.21 1.3.21 1.4.21 1.5.21 1.6.21 1.7.21 1.8.21 1.9.21 1.1.21 1.11.21 1.12.21 Oil 2 August 212 Stocks 45 4 35 3 25 Stock EIA 211 Week 33 366,16 Previous week 366,16 % Stock EIA crude range (24-211) 35 3 25 2 Stock ARA HFO 211 Week 33 243 Previous week 2328 Stock ARA Heavy Fuel Oil range (24-211) +3,22% 2 15 1 5 Stock EIA 212 15 1 5 Stock ARA HFO 212 in mln bbl in K tonnes 12 1 Stock ARA GOL 211 Week 33 837 Previous week 966-13,35% 14 12 Stock ARA Gasoline 211 Week 33 638 Previous week 773-17,46% 8 6 4 2 Stock ARA Gasoil range (24-211) Stock ARA GOL 212 1 8 6 4 2 Stock ARA Gasoline range (24-211) Stock ARA Gasoline 212 in K tonnes in K tonnes EIA crude stocks have fallen by 3,7% during the last 3 days, and are now 2,9% above the 24-211 median (32,98 mln bbl). ARA heavy fuel oil stocks have risen by 2,8% during the last 3 days, and are now 19,2% above the 24-211 median (216,5 mln b ARA gas oil stocks have risen by 3,1% during the last 3 days, and are now 27,8% above the 24-211 median (655 mln bbl). ARA gasoline stocks have fallen by 12,4% during the last 3 days, and are now 23,4% under the 24-211 median (1989 mln bbl).
Oil 2 August 212 Global Oil Production in mbpd The first number shows the production estimated for the month of June 212. The second number shows the difference with the same month of the previous year. The color of the second number s background indicates if there has been an increase or a decrease in production compared to the same period of last year: Norway 1,9 +,1 Other North Sea,23 -,3 Russia 1,21 +,1 Canada 3,66 +,27 UK (offshore),99 -,8 Other FSU/ East. Europe,26 +,3 Azerbaijan 1,, Turkmenistan,24 +,2 Kazakhstan 1,62 -,5 Mexico 2,95 -,2 U.S. (5 States) 1,9 +,9 Colombia,94 -,2 Ecuador,49, Other Central and S. America,44 -,3 Venezuela 2,2, Brazil 2,71 -,2 Argentina,77 +,4 Nigeria 2,15 -,2 Algeria 1,27, Libya 1,4 +1,3 Eq. Guinea,33 +,3 Gabon,25, Angola 1,75 +,15 Egypt,7 +,2 Sudan,11 -,32 Iraq 2,9 +,35 Saudi Arabia 9,8 +,2 UAE 2,5 -,1 Iran 3,13 -,57 Kuwait 2,6 +,1 Qatar,73 -,12 Yemen,15 +,7 Oman,88, India,94 -,1 Vietnam,36 +,6 China 4,47 +,1 Indonesia - - Malaysia,62 +,4 Australia,56 +,11 Syria,21 -,16 Total OPEC as % of world production Total North America Total FSU and East. Europe Total Asia and Oceania Total Europe Total Central and South America Total Africa Total Middle East 36,37 41, 17,51 13,33 8,97 4,6 4,86 2,3 1,29 +1,32 +,42 +1,16 +,1 +,31 -,1 -,2 -,27 -,9
end of period inventories, in million barrels in mbpd Oil 2 August 212 Global Demand and Supply, Inventories 91 9 89 88 87 86 85 84 83 82 81 31 26 21 16 11 6 j-9 a-9 s-9 j-9 a-9 s-9 o-9 n-9 d-9 j-1 f-1 m-1 a-1 m-1 j-1 j-1 Demand Supply Supply/Demand o-9 n-9 d-9 j-1 f-1 m-1 a-1 m-1 j-1 j-1 a-1 s-1 o-1 n-1 d-1 j-11 f-11 m-11 a-11 m-11 j-11 j-11 a-11 s-11 o-11 a-1 s-1 o-1 n-1 d-1 j-11 f-11 m-11 a-11 m-11 j-11 j-11 a-11 s-11 o-11 n-11 d-11 j-12 f-12 m-12 a-12 m-12 j-12 j-12 n-11 d-11 j-12 f-12 m-12 a-12 m-12 j-12 j-12 U.S. Commercial Inventory OECD Commercial Inventory U.S. Forward Days Cover OECD Forward Days Cover 1,3 1,2 1,1 1,99,98,97,96,95 63 61 59 57 55 53 51 49 47 45 ratio in days
Oil 2 August 212 Correlations 12 115 11 15 1 1,25 1,24 1,23 1,22 1,21 1,2 1,19 Brent oil in USD/bbl EUR/USD 12 115 11 15 1 134 132 13 128 126 124 oil in USD/bbl Brent DOW JONES 95 1,18 95 122 EUR/USD Week 33 1,2355 Previous week 1,229 +,52% DOW JONES Week 33 13275,2 Previous week 1327,95 +,5% 12 115 11 15 1 95 25 2 15 1 5 oil in USD/bbl Brent Speculative net long position on crude oil NYMEX 12 115 11 15 1 95 355 36 365 37 375 38 385 Brent EIA crude stock level (values in reverse order) oil in USD/bbl, stock in mln bbl SPECULATIVE NET POSITION EIA CRUDE STOCK Week 33 193382 Previous week 24499-5,43% Week 33 366,158 Previous week 373,586-1,98% EUR/USD exchange rate has fallen by 4,6% since the beginning of 212, and increased by 1,6% during the last 3 days. Compared to the 212 average (1,2834) the current rate is 3,7% lower. Dow Jones index has risen by 8,7% since the beginning of 212, and increased by 3,5% during the last 3 days. Compared to the 212 average (1283,6) the current index is 3,5% higher. Speculative net long position on crude oil at NYMEX has risen by 33,7% since the beginning of 212, and increased by 11,9% during the last 3 days. Compared to the 212 average (18746) the current level is 3,2% higher. EIA crude stock level has risen by 11,1% since the beginning of 212, and descended by 3,7% during the last 3 days. Compared to the 212 average (363,164 mln bbl) the current level is,8% higher.
Natural Gas 2 August 212 Natural Gas Price 28,5 25,5 28, 25, 27,5 24,5 27, 26,5 26, 25,5 25, Gas ZEE Cal+1 Gas TTF Cal+1 24, 23,5 23, 22,5 22, 21,5 Gas ZEE DA Gas TTF DA Gas NBP DA 24,5 21, in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Gas prices up on tight supplies Wholesale prices rose last week as the system was undersupplied. In Belgium, the weekly average of spot prices rose by 1%, while the indicator gained 2% in Germany and France and almost 3% in the Netherlands. Prices were kept high as there was a risk for lower gas flows through Norway's Langeled pipeline. Further out on the curve, prices gained around 1% on concerns of a gas supply squeeze in winter. The market is already tight although demand is around 3% below the seasonal norm, and traders are worried about what will happen when gas demand will rise during a cold snap. Gas ZEEBRUGGE 213 Week 33 27,96 Previous week 27,79 Gas TTF 213 Week 33 27,65 Previous week 27,26 Gas NBP 213 Week 33 28,11 Previous week 27,91 Gas BUNDE 213 Week 33 27,75 Previous week 27,35 Gas SPAIN 213 Week 33 3,24 Previous week 29,83 +,6% +1,43% +,74% +1,46% +1,37% Gas ZEEBRUGGE DA Week 33 avg 23,93 Prev.week avg 23,72 Gas TTF DA Week 33 avg 24,12 Prev.week avg 23,46 Gas NBP DA Week 33 avg 23,33 Prev.week avg 23,4 Gas BUNDE DA Week 33 avg 24,44 Prev.week avg 23,89 Gas PEG (FRANCE) DA Week 33 avg 24,39 Prev.week avg 23,89 +,88% +2,8% +1,22% +2,3% +2,9%
Natural Gas 2 August 212 95 9 85 8 75 7 Natural Gas Oil Linked Price Components Brent11 213 Brent73 213 Brent33 213 Brent63 213 Brent313 213 78 77 76 75 74 73 72 71 GOL33 212 GOL313 212 GOL63 212 GOL73 212 GOL11 212 Brent33 213 Week 33 89,82 Previous week 88,22 Brent313 213 Week 33 9,22 Previous week 88,69 Brent63 213 Week 33 89,42 Previous week 88,2 Brent73 213 Week 33 86,42 Previous week 85,8 Brent11 213 Week 33 89,5 Previous week 87,51 +1,8% +1,73% +1,6% +1,57% +1,75% 65 6 52 51 5 49 48 47 46 45 44 in EUR/bbl LFO33 213 LFO313 213 LFO63 213 LFO73 213 LFO11 213 in EUR/tonne 7 69 68 in EUR/tonne 33 average daily prices of the period Q-1 applied to calculate the price for the period Q 313 average daily prices of the months M-2 to M-4 applied to calculate the price for the period Q 63 average daily prices of the months Q-1 and Q-2, applied to calculate the price for the period Q 73 average daily prices of the months M-1 to M-7, applied to calculate the price for the period Q 11 - average daily prices of the month M-1 applied to calculate the price for the period M Q quarter, M month. GOL33 213 Week 33 769,27 Previous week 757,5 GOL313 213 Week 33 771,79 Previous week 759,29 GOL63 213 Week 33 766,81 Previous week 755,81 GOL73 213 Week 33 765,39 Previous week 754,56 GOL11 213 Week 33 764,3 Previous week 752,46 LFO33 213 Week 33 58,19 Previous week 499,11 LFO313 213 Week 33 59,89 Previous week 51,16 LFO63 213 Week 33 58,48 Previous week 5,26 LFO73 213 Week 33 57,12 Previous week 499,23 LFO11 213 Week 33 54,81 Previous week 495,5 +1,61% +1,64% +1,45% +1,43% +1,53% +1,81% +1,74% +1,64% +1,57% +1,87%
in EUR/MWh 2.8.211 3.8.211 9.9.211 19.9.211 29.9.211 9.1.211 19.1.211 29.1.211 8.11.211 18.11.211 28.11.211 8.12.211 18.12.211 28.12.211 7.1.212 17.1.212 27.1.212 6.2.212 16.2.212 26.2.212 7.3.212 17.3.212 27.3.212 6.4.212 16.4.212 26.4.212 6.5.212 16.5.212 26.5.212 5.6.212 15.6.212 25.6.212 5.7.212 15.7.212 Natural Gas 2 August 212 Oil Linked Natural Gas Price 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 12 1 8 6 4 2 TTF gas Cal Y+1 Oil linked gas price Cal212 Premium [Oil linked gas] - [ZEE TTF average] Oil linked natural gas more expensive than futures Oil linked gas price Cal212 Week 33 38,4 Previous week 37,82 +1,53% The current natural gas oil linked price for calendar 212 is 38,4 EUR/MWh, which is 12,3% higher that at the beginning of 212. During the last 3 days the price has increased by 3,9%. Compared to the year to date average of 36,21 EUR/MWh, the current price is 6% higher. The premium of natural gas oil linked price to Zeebrugge and TTF forwards average is currently at 1,75 EUR/MWh, which is,5 EUR/MWh lower compared to the beginning of the year, and 1,3 EUR/MWh more than the year to date average of 9,72 EUR/MWh. The premium has increased by 1,49 EUR/MWh during the last 3 days.
in USD/tonne Coal CO2 2 August 212 Coal Index Coal, API N2 EUAs CO2 14 Week 33 99,4 Previous week 11,75-2,3% 9, Week 33 7,71 Previous week 7,21 +6,93% 12 8,5 1 8, 7,5 98 Coal, API N2, 6 kcal NAR CIF, USD/tonne 7, CO2 96 6,5 94 92 6, 5,5 5, in EUR/tonne Coal softened, for how long? Physical prompt coal retreated from earlier highs as Colombia's main coal railway said it would resume operations after the end of a 25-day strike which cut exports by more than half. Physical prompt coal prices softened by 2.3% last week after rising by 6% on Colombian force majeure. The bearish mood was enhanced by lower trading activity, as many players were away from the market. However, there seems to be a consensus that the market is likely to recover gradually in the next several months, when trading activity resumes. EUAs hit four-week highs EU carbon prices hit a four-week high as coal and German power prices held onto recent gains and traders speculated that energy prices would move higher amid hopes of decisive action to combat the euro zone s debt crisis. The euro zone slid into recession in the second quarter, but traders believed this made it more likely the European Central Bank would act to prop up the euro. Technical traders said that the next resistance level is at 7.85 euros, and that a challenge of 8 euros is possible, although it seems that the market overbought already.
Coal 2 August 212 Coal - Global Physical Trades and Futures, in USD/tone Rotterdam Month Ahead 94,25 Russia Baltic 89,4 LEGEND Phisical trade Futures EEX Month Ahead 94,3 Russia Eastern 91,75 China 116,24 Colombia 87,25 Richard Bay South Africa 9,95 Maputo South Africa 88,95 Richards Bay Month Ahead 89,45 Kalimantan Indonesia 68,5 Newcastle Australia 87,15 Newcastle Australia - Japan 115,25 13 98 12 China Kalimantan Indonesia 96 94 11 Richard Bay South Africa 92 1 9 8 7 Maputo South Africa Newcastle Australia - Japan Newcastle Australia Russia Baltic Russia Eastern 9 88 86 84 82 8 Richards Bay Month Ahead EEX Month Ahead 6 Russia Eastern 78 Physical Trades Futures
12,53 15,25 14,24 13,28 11,79 1,67 1.23 23,86 26,15 27,4 26,66 24,85 21,79 1.34 1.44 1.45 1.42 1.39 1.36 1.34 1.31 1.28 1.26 1.23 18.5 19.1 11.5 11. 23.2 23.4 22.7 122.3 127.9 26.1 23.9 132.8 136. 27.2 27.4 139.3 27.7 27.9 28.1 142.6 28.4 28.6 28.9 26.7 27.9 28.4 28.9 145.9 29.4 149.1 29.9 152.4 3.4 155.6 3.9 31.3 77.9 72.3 445. 391. 94.8 635.5 616.8 111.8 484. 116.7 119.3 762.5 122. 124.5 127.2 129.7 132.4 134.9 617.8 651.1 663.8 676.6 689.2 99.8 72.1 714.7 727.5 957.3 74.1 978.6 1.1 121.2 142.7 163.9 185.4 116.5 Energy Forecast 2 August 212 Long Term Trend Energy and Fundamentals Forecast 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 3 25 2 15 1 5 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Oil Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Natural Gas U. K. Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 CO2 Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-215 Jul-215 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1.5 1.45 1.4 1.35 1.3 1.25 1.2 1.15 1.1 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Heavy Fuel Oil Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Natural Gas Germany Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 EUR/USD Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 12 1 8 6 4 2 2 15 1 5 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Gasoil Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Coal Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Long term forecast is based on s trend of a relevant data series, selected for each market separately and reflects our expectation on the evolution of the given indicators until 215. The trend is the result of a statistical model. Figures are indicative only and there should be no liability on EMP related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.
Power 2 August 212 Power Europe last 3 months 8 75 7 Belgium Netherlands 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 21.5.212 25.5.212 29.5.212 2.6.212 6.6.212 1.6.212 14.6.212 18.6.212 22.6.212 26.6.212 3.6.212 4.7.212 Bullish Cal213 and spot prices 8.7.212 12.7.212 16.7.212 2.7.212 Germany France Great Britain Nordic Pool Cal213 prices gained 1% in Belgium and around.5% in the Netherlands and France, on higher oil and natural gas prices. Spot power climbed by around 7% in weekly average in Belgium and France as a continuing heat wave boosted consumption. Forecasts for much warmer temperatures in Germany this week boosted bullish mood on the short end. On the supply side, French nuclear power capacity remains tight, while a slight increase in German wind and solar power output will fail to offset the consumption increase. Lower hydro output was also supportive. However, spot prices could turn bearish as much of the economic activity is on hold for the summer holidays. Spain Italy Austria
Power 2 August 212 Power Germany Power France 51 51 53, 52,5 5 52, 5 49 49 48 48 47 47 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 DE Cal+1 bsld DE Cal+2 bsld 51,5 51, 5,5 5, 49,5 49, EMP Structural Price Cal+1 FR Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+2 bsld 46 46 48,5 48, in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal213 price closed the week at 49,5 EUR/MWh, or 6,95% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 5,44 EUR/MWh, the current price is 1,86% lower. DE Cal+1 bsld The contract is,9 EUR/MWh Week 33 49,5 higher than the estimated EMP Previous week 49,5 Cal213 structural price, which DE Cal+2 bsld suggests some downward Week 33 49,85 Previous week 49,9 pressure on the forward curve. EMP Structural Price Cal+1 The Cal+2 bsld is currently Week 33 49,41 Previous week 48,96,35 EUR/MWh more expensive DE Spot than Cal+1 bsld. Week 33 avg 43,43 Prev. week avg 42,47 6 5 4 3 2 1 % -,1% +,92% +2,25% DE Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal213 price closed the week at 51,5 EUR/MWh, or 3% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 51,7 EUR/MWh, the current price is,84% higher. The contract is,15 EUR/MWh FR Cal+1 bsld Week 33 51,5 higher than the estimated EMP Previous week 51,25 Cal213 structural price, which FR Cal+2 bsld suggests some downward Week 33 52,2 Previous week 51,65 pressure on the forward curve. EMP Structural Price Cal+1 The Cal+2 bsld is currently,7 EUR/MWh more expensive than Cal+1 bsld. 6 5 4 3 2 1 Week 33 51,35 Previous week 5,7 FR Spot Week 33 avg 45,93 Prev. week avg 42,89 +,48% +1,6% +1,28% +7,9% FR Spot in EUR/ MWh
Power 2 August 212 Power Correlations 53 12 53 14 52 51 5 49 115 11 DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld 52 51 5 49 12 1 98 DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld 48 47 46 15 1 Brent oil 48 47 46 96 94 Coal Index 45 95 45 92 53 28 53 7,8 52 51 5 49 48 47 46 27,5 27 26,5 26 25,5 DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld Zeebrugge gas Cal+1 52 51 5 49 48 47 46 7,6 7,4 7,2 7 6,8 6,6 6,4 6,2 DE Cal+1 bsld FR Cal+1 bsld EUA 45 25 45 6
Power 2 August 212 Power Belgium Power Netherlands 53 54 52 53 51 52 5 49 BE Cal+1 bsld BE Cal+2 bsld 51 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 NL Cal+1 bsld 48 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 5 NL Cal+2 bsld 47 49 46 48 in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal213 price closed the week at 51,23 EUR/MWh, or,19% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 5,23 EUR/MWh, the current price is 2% higher. The contract is,55 EUR/MWh BE Cal+1 bsld Week 33 51,23 higher than the estimated EMP Previous week 5,69 Cal213 structural price, which BE Cal+2 bsld suggests some downward Week 33 51,77 Previous week 51,29 pressure on the forward curve. EMP Structural Price Cal+1 The Cal+2 bsld is currently Week 33 5,68 Previous week 5,,54 EUR/MWh more expensive BE Spot than Cal+1 bsld. Week 33 avg 46,8 Prev. week avg 43,9 6 5 4 3 2 1 +1,6% +,93% +1,34% +6,93% BE Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal213 price closed the week at 52,75 EUR/MWh, or 1,44% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 51,74 EUR/MWh, the current price is 1,95% higher. NL Cal+1 bsld The contract is,17 EUR/MWh Week 33 52,75 lower than the estimated EMP Previous week 52,5 Cal213 structural price, which NL Cal+2 bsld Week 33 51,5 suggests some upward pressure Previous week 51,25 on the forward curve. The EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Cal+2 bsld is currently 1,25 EUR/MWh less expensive than Cal+1 bsld. 43 43 42 42 41 41 4 4 39 39 Week 33 52,92 Previous week 52,45 NL Spot Week 33 avg 41,61 Prev. week avg 4,39 +,47% +,48% +,89% +3% NL Spot in EUR/ MWh
Power 2 August 212 Power UK Power Nordic Pool 67 41 66 4 65 64 63 62 61 UK Cal+1 bsld EMP Structural Price Cal+1 39 38 37 36 NP Cal+2 bsld EMP Structural Price Cal+1 NP Cal+1 bsld 6 35 59 34 in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal213 price closed the week at 65,87 EUR/MWh, or 17,3% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 6,66 EUR/MWh, the current price is 8,58% higher. The contract is 12,9 EUR/MWh UK Cal+1 bsld Week 33 65,87 higher than the estimated EMP Previous week 65,43 Cal213 structural price, which EMP Structural Price Cal+1 suggests some downward Week 33 65,21 Previous week 64,65 pressure on the forward curve. UK Spot 56 55 54 53 52 51 5 49 48 Week 33 avg 52,97 Prev. week avg 51,27 +,66% +,86% +3,31% UK Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal213 price closed the week at 38,95 EUR/MWh, or 6,14% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 38,98 EUR/MWh, the current price is,9% lower. NP Cal+1 bsld The contract is,7 EUR/MWh Week 33 38,95 lower than the estimated EMP Previous week 38,79 Cal213 structural price, which NP Cal+2 bsld Week 33 39,68 suggests some upward pressure Previous week 39,15 on the forward curve. The EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Cal+2 bsld is currently,73 EUR/MWh more expensive than Cal+1 bsld. 3 25 2 15 1 5 Week 33 39,2 Previous week 38,38 NP Spot Week 33 avg 24,36 Prev. week avg 15,55 +,41% +1,35% +1,66% +56,65% NP Spot in EUR/ MWh
Power 2 August 212 Power Italy Power Spain 75 53,5 75 74 53, 74 73 73 72 72 71 EMP Structural Price Y+1 IT CalY+1 bsld 52,5 52, 51,5 EMP Structural Price Y+1 SP Cal Y+1 bsld 71 7 51, 7 5,5 in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh Cal213 price closed the week at 74,4 EUR/MWh, or 13,49% less that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 74,49 EUR/MWh, the current price is,12% lower. IT CalY+1 bsld The contract is 6,7 EUR/MWh Week 33 74,4 lower than the estimated EMP Previous week 73, Cal213 structural price, which EMP Structural Price Y+1 Week 33 74,3 suggests some upward pressure Previous week 73,54 on the forward curve. IT Spot 1 95 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 Week 33 avg 81,1 Prev. week avg 83,18 +1,91% +,67% -2,49% IT Spot in EUR/ MWh Cal213 price closed the week at 53 EUR/MWh, or 1,92% more that at the beginning of the year. Compared to the 212 average to date of 51,6 EUR/MWh, the current price is 2,71% higher. The contract is 5,12 EUR/MWh SP Cal Y+1 bsld Week 33 53, higher than the estimated EMP Previous week 52, Cal213 structural price, which EMP Structural Price Y+1 suggests some downward Week 33 52,57 Previous week 52,39 pressure on the forward curve. SP Spot 6 5 4 3 2 1 Week 33 avg 47,88 Prev. week avg 48,27 +1,92% +,34% -,8% SP Spot in EUR/ MWh
Power 2 August 212 Power Austria Power Hungary Power Czech Rep. 51 5 5 49 49 48 48 47 47 46 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 AT Cal+1 bsld 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 HU Cal+1 bsld 51 5 49 48 47 46 45 44 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 CZ Cal+1 bsld in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh in EUR/MWh 55 5 45 4 35 3 AT Spot in EUR/ MWh 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 HU Spot in EUR/ MWh 6 5 4 3 2 1 CZ Spot in EUR/ MWh AT Cal+1 bsld Week 33 49,5 Previous week 49,5 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Week 33 49,62 Previous week 49,26 AT Spot Week 33 avg 47,64 Prev. week avg 42,71 % +,74% +11,53% HU Cal+1 bsld Week 33 57,25 Previous week 57,85 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Week 33 61,22 Previous week 57,3 HU Spot Week 33 avg 57,9 Prev. week avg 57,86-1,3% +7,34% -1,33% CZ Cal+1 bsld Week 33 49,55 Previous week 5,5 EMP Structural Price Cal+1 Week 33 49,35 Previous week 49,5 CZ Spot Week 33 avg 47,64 Prev. week avg 42,71 -,99% +,59% +11,53%
Power 2 August 212 Current prices UK 65,87 64,7 1,17 LEGEND Last quotation for Cal+1 bsld Last 2 days average Last quot. - Last 2 days average <-1 +1 to -1 >+1 Spain 53, 52,18,83 Belgium 51,23 5,44,79 France 51,5 51,12,38 Holland 52,75 52,28,47 Italy 74,4 73,5 1,35 Germany 49,5 49,21,3 Austria 49,5 49,21,3 Nordic 38,95 38,62,33 Czech Rep. 49,55 49,2,53 Hungary 57,25 6,52-3,27 Historical range 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Belgium Netherlands Germany France Spain UK 1.1.26 1.1.27 1.1.28 1.1.29 1.1.21 1.1.211 1.1.212
Power Statistics 2 August 212 Spark Spreads Clean Spark Spreads 6 4 2-2 Spark Spread Spot DE Week 33 avg -5,7 Prev. week avg -4,92 Spark Spread Spot FR Week 33 avg -1,94 Prev. week avg -4,55 Spark Spread Spot NL Week 33 avg 2,7 Prev. week avg -3,58 4 2-2 -4 Clean Spark Spread Spot DE Week 33 avg -7,96 Prev. week avg -7,64 Clean Spark Spread Spot FR Week 33 avg -4,84 Prev. week avg -7,24 Clean Spark Spread Spot NL Week 33 avg -,18 Prev. week avg -6,3-4 -6-8 -1-12 Spark Spread Spot DE Spark Spread Spot FR Spark Spread Spot NL -6-8 -1-12 -14 Clean Spark Spread Spot DE Clean Spark Spread Spot FR Clean Spark Spread Spot NL -14-16, -1, -2, -3, Spark Spread Cal 212 DE Week 33-5,9 Previous week -5,6 Spark Spread 212 FR Week 33-3,76 Previous week -3,27 Spark Spread 212 NL Week 33-2,51 Previous week -2,2-2 -4 Clean Spark Spread 212 DE Week 33-9, Previous week -8,5 Clean Spark Spread 212 FR Week 33-6,86 Previous week -6,17 Clean Spark Spread 212 NL Week Clean 33 Spark Spread -5,61 Previous 212 DE week -4,92-4, -5, -6, -7, Spark Spread 211 DE Spark Spread 211 FR Spark Spread 211 NL -6-8 -1-12 Clean Spark Spread 212 FR Clean Spark Spread 212 NL
Power Statistics 2 August 212 Dark and Clean Dark Spreads 2,5 19,5 18,5 17,5 16,5 15,5 14,5 Dark Spread 212 DE Week 33 16,48 Previous week 15,62 Dark Spread 212 FR Week 33 18,48 Previous week 17,37 Dark Spread 212 NL Week 33 19,72 Previous week 18,61 Dark Spread 212 DE Dark Spread 212 FR Dark Spread 212 NL Spark spreads represent the essence of the relation between natural gas price and electricity price. It is the theoretical net income of a gas-fired power plant from selling a unit of electricity, after buying the fuel required to produce this unit. Spark spread = Price of electricity Price of gas / Efficiency of Electric Plant. Negative spark spreads indicate that the price of electricity delivered that day did not cover the price of gas bought the same day. The term dark spread refers to the similarly defined difference between cash streams for coal-fired power plants. Clean spark spread represents the net revenue a generator makes from selling power, having bought gas and the required number of carbon allowances. Clean dark spread refers to an analogous indicator for coal fired generation of electricity. 13,5 13, 12,5 12, 11,5 11, 1,5 1, 9,5 9, 8,5 8, 7,5 Clean Dark Spread 212 DE Week 33 11,13 Previous week 1,49 Clean Dark Spread 212 FR Week 33 9,15 Previous week 8,74 Clean Dark Spread 212 NL Week 33 12,38 Previous week 11,74 Clean Dark Spread 212 DE Clean Dark Spread 212 FR Clean Dark Spread 212 NL Premiums % -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% Week 33-3,88% Previous week -3,41% BE/FR Week 33 -,52% Previous week -1,9% BE/NL Week 33-2,88% Previous week -3,45% DE/NL Week 33-6,16% Previous week -5,71% DE/BE Week 33-3,38% Previous week -2,35% DE/BE DE/NL BE/NL BE/FR DE/FR -,46% +,56% +,56% -,44% -1,2% -8% DE/FR
44.5 46. 48.75 52.75 54.3 54.85 55.69 56.51 57.34 58.16 59. 59.82 69.25 7.93 68.7 73. 74.6 74.73 74.85 74.98 75.11 75.23 75.36 75.48 45.79 6.62 6.9 52. 62.61 53.7 53.8 65.28 66.9 56.45 68.54 7.15 58.62 71.78 43.2 42.85 59.67 73.39 6.74 75.3 61.79 76.64 62.85 5.95 46.6 63.9 64.97 66.2 49.59 5.27 5.97 51.65 52.34 53.2 53.71 54.39 52.78 53.15 52.5 56.9 58.77 59.73 6.71 61.66 62.64 54.3 56.1 54.9 55.65 57.1 57.94 58.88 59.81 52.56 6.76 53.34 63.59 64.57 61.69 62.63 54.82 65.53 63.56 55.77 57.47 58.5 59.55 6.58 61.62 62.65 63.69 64.72 Power Forecast 2 August 212 Long Term Trend Electricity Forecast 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Power Germany Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Power Netherlands Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Power Spain Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 8 6 4 2 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-21 Jul-21 Power France Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Power U. K. Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Power Italy Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Jan-21 Jul-21 6 5 4 3 2 1 Jan-21 Jul-21 Power Belgium Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Power Nord Pool Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Jan-211 Jul-211 Jan-212 Jul-212 Jan-213 Jul-213 Jan-214 Jul-214 Jan-215 Jul-215 Long term forecast is based on s trend of a relevant data series, selected for each market separately and reflects our expectation on the evolution of the given indicators until 215. The trend is the result of a statistical model. Figures are indicative only and there should be no liability on EMP related to any risks taken on the basis of these assessments.
Currency 2 August 212 Currency Rates 1,3 EUR/USD Week 33 1,2355 Previous week 1,229 +,52% 1,6 GBP/USD Week 33 1,571 Previous week 1,5691 +,12% 1,28 1,59 1,58 1,26 1,57 EUR/USD 1,56 GBP/USD 1,24 1,55 1,22 1,54 1,53 1,2 1,52 1,3 1,29 1,28 GBP/EUR Week 33 1,2715 Previous week 1,2767 -,4% 7,5 7,45 EUR/NOK Week 33 7,3295 Previous week 7,27 +,81% 1,27 7,4 1,26 1,25 1,24 GBP/EUR 7,35 7,3 EUR/NOK 1,23 1,22 7,25 1,21 7,2 1,2 7,15