How Automated Roadway Vehicle Technology Will Impact Transit Systems, Facilities and Operations. J. Sam Lott Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc.

How Automated Roadway Vehicle Technology Will Impact Transit Systems, Facilities and Operations J. Sam Lott Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc. ITS Texas 2015 Conference November 12, 2015

Texas Southern University CTTR and Kimley-Horn Collaborative Exploring the New World of AV/CV Applications to Transit

Definition of Terms AV/CV Transit Vehicles Automated & connected roadway vehicles (AV/CV); robotic, driverless vehicles Transitways Exclusive lanes for AV/CV vehicles Automated Buses Rubber tired & driverless AV/CV vehicles of bus size and operating with assigned routes Demand-Responsive Service Dynamic reconfiguration of routes to meet demand Automated Supervisory System Command/control system that monitors, dispatches and optimizes the AV/CV transit vehicles Source: Kimley-Horn

Last 50 Years of Automated Guideway Transit

Driverless Automated Guideway Transit (AGT) Has Been Running for a Half Century! Source: Official Skybus Webpage, http://www.brooklineconnection.com/history/facts/skybus.html 1964

AGT Systems Have Been Very Effective as Circulator/Connector Systems Miami Metromover Downtown People Mover 1986 Began service in 1986 as part of the UMTA Downtown People Mover Program Source: Kimley-Horn

Full Automation Now Being Applied for Metropolitan-Scale Systems Singapore Metro Source: Kimley-Horn Starting in 2003, Singapore Land Transportation has run fully automated rapid transit lines, including the North East MRT Line (NEL) and the Circle Line (CCL). NEL began service in 2003 and CCL in 2009. 7

Robotic Vehicles in Passenger Service Applied as Automated Transit Networks Heathrow Airport Terminal 5 Parking Connector 2011 Source: ULTra PRT

Next Technology Advances Two key elements of technology evolution enabling system operational response to changing demand patterns are still in the experimental/developmental phase: Automated Demand-Response Large-scale (100+ vehicles) real-time demand-response operating modes with automated dispatching Dynamic Entrainment Virtual coupling of vehicles on-the-fly with train consists periodically reconfigured to fit demand patterns

Demand-Response Dispatching Will Change Fixed Route Transit Paradigm New Paradigm for Guideway Transit Operations Real-time demand-response dispatching Small vehicles, direct ride between O/D stations Off-line stations allow mainline express service Operational concepts developed through studies such as 2004 BART Study Simulation Modeling of fixed guideway AGT system between BART Fruitvale Station and Alameda Island Ref: Optimizing AGT Applications Through Demand-Responsive Control Systems Authors: J. Sam Lott, Eugene Nishinaga 2005 ASCE Automated People Mover Conference Source:

Toyota ITMS Demonstration of Dynamic Entrainment on Dedicated Transitways Expo 2006 Aichi, Japan Demonstrated Toyota s ITMS Intelligent Multimodal Transit System 2 Million Passengers Carried Automated vehicles steered themselves without physical guidance Automated entrainment demonstrated even as vehicles were moving Source: Toyota Ref: A New Public Transport System that Bridges the Gap between Cars and Rail: IMTS Authors: Keiji Aoki, Rie Hayashida 2005 ASCE Automated People Mover Conference

Next 50 years of Driverless AV/CV Public Transit

Evolutionary Path Over Near Term Near Term -- Next 5-10 Years Applications to HOV/Transitways and Managed Lanes with Vehicle Operator Onboard Applications in Controlled Environments at Low Speeds with Driverless Vehicles (e.g., campus setting) Medium Term Next 10-20 Years Applications in Mixed Traffic at Moderate Speeds and With Driverless Vehicles

Automated Roadway Vehicles Will Be On the Market By 2020s Source: Audi Source: Mercedes Source: Nissan

Parallel Path of AV/CV Technology Development is Well Underway Autonomous Vehicle (AV) Development By Private Sector/Auto Manufacturers NEAR & MEDIUM TERM System Equipment Connected Vehicle (CV) Development By USDOT and State DOTs LONG TERM Facilities and Operations All Transit Applications Automated Supervisory Control System Monitor the Status of the System Dispatch Each Transit Vehicle Respond to Passenger Trip Requests Take vehicles in and out of service Optimize all performance metrics

Conceptual Texas Medical Center Plan for Automated Aerial Circulator System Rice Univ. Main Campus P Bus Rapid Transit Mid- Campus P Transit Circulator System Street Running LRT P South Campus Long Distance Commuter Rail Intermodal Stations P Pedestrian Access Stations Remote Parking Structure High Speed Suburban LRT Commuter Line Source: 2006 TMC Transit Circulator Definition Study P Conceptual Texas Medical Center Circulator Phase IV 20 30 Years

Conceptual TMC Automated Aerial Circulator With Virtually Coupled Automated Buses Source: Wikimedia https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/file:expo_2005 _of_three_imts(s)_organization.jpg Source: Kimley-Horn

Conceptual ATN System Connecting TMC, Rice University, Rice Village and Herman Park Rice Village Rice University Existing LRT System Proposed TMC/Rice Aerial Transitway And Surface Road Automated Transit Network System Herman Park & Zoo Texas Medical Center Campus Conceptual TMC Aerial Transit Circulator System

Conceptual ATN System With Small Driverless Vehicles Running on Campus Roadways and Passing Over Heavy Traffic on TMC Streets & Arterials Source: ULTra PRT

AV/CV Technology Development SYSTEMS

Early Applications of Driverless Vehicles on Dedicated Transitways Bus platooning, lateral steering control and precision docking in controlled environments have already been demonstrated Magnetic markers (nails) have provided guidance for steering control, with a driver providing acceleration and braking control Source: Caltrans Source: Caltrans

Automated Buses & Trains in the Future World of Transit Will be AV/CV Vehicles No operator onboard the vehicle/train Robotic controls navigate and steer the vehicle Rubber-tired vehicles replace rail vehicles No switches along the transitways 2011 Source: 2GetThere ATN Masdar City, Abu Dhabi 2011

Demand Response Transit Serving a Major Rail Station with 4-Pass. ATN Vehicles; Shared Ride Service Approximate ATN Corridor Length = 3.5 miles (5.6 km) Northeast Corridor (NEC) HSR Station 23

Demand-Response Network Routes Will Shape Transit Service Automated Transit Networks (ATNs)

AV/CV Technology Development FACILITIES

Automated AV/CV Transitways With Off- Line Station Configuration Conventional fixed route guideway transit has online stations AV/CV Transitway makes off-line stations possible without switches Source: Bombardier Source: Toyota

Station Configurations Investigated Serial Berth vs. Parallel Berths Station Capacity is of critical importance Serial Berths more compact, lower in cost Vehicle F24,, 3 Passengers Bound for NEC Station Maintaining Speed at 11 mph Time: 6:01:31 a.m.

Serial Berths Had Inadequate Capacity 4 Passenger Vehicles, 93 Vehicles in Fleet CONCLUSION: Station Platform is Full Due to Insufficient Capacity Peak 5 Minute Flow-In Rate (Brdg + Altg) = 200; (2400 pph Equiv. Rate) 203 Peak Occ. on Platform 170 Sustained Occ. on Platform 5 Minute Intervals Operating In a Shared Ride Dispatch Mode

Serial Berths Had Inadequate Capacity to Handle Surge Flows

Station Configurations Investigated Serial Berth vs. Parallel Berths Analysis of ridership demands, surge flows essential to station size and configuration Parallel Berths provide highest throughput Vehicle F24, 4 Passengers Bound for Terminal B Station 2 mph Speed, Accelerating to 5 mph Time: 6:00:21 a.m.

System Performance Constrained by Remote NEC Station and Inability to Sustain Adequate Vehicle Supply

Final Concept Added Empty Vehicle Storage Near NEC for Enlarged Fleet and Parrallel Berth Station Configuration Surge of passengers from departing train flow toward ATN station platform Empty vehicles waiting on Storage Track for dispatch Time: 6:12:46 a.m.

Case Study with Parrellel Berth Capacity 4 Passenger Vehicles, 116 Vehicles in Fleet and Storage Track Near Rail Station 5,879 Daily Boarding Passengers Peak 5 Minute Flow-In Rate (Brdg.+ Altg.) = 200 140 Peak Occ. on Platform 5 Minute Intervals Operating In a Shared Ride Dispatch Mode

Source: Kimley-Horn Future AV/CV Transit Stations Will Look Less Like This

Los Angeles And More Like This El Paso Source: Google Earth

AV/CV Technology Development OPERATIONS

Future View for Transit in 50 Years From Where We Stand With AV/CV Technology Off-Line Stations Combined with Appropriate Demand-Response Supervisory Control System Provide a New Paradigm for Metro Systems: Direct O/D station service is common Highest demand patterns efficiently served with customized service Dynamic adjustment to train routing based on peak station-to-station demand patterns with Real Time Dispatch by Supervisory Control

Blend of Fixed Route and Demand- Response Network Routes Will Change Transit Corridor Operations Original Simulation Study Fixed Route Operation Demand-Response Network Operation Portions of Transit Corridors Will Remain Fixed Route Service

Portions of Transit Corridor Operations Reconfigured as Demand-Response Networks Original Simulation Study Fixed Route Operation Demand-Response Network Operation Demand-Response Operations Provide Direct Origin-to-Destination Service

Blend of Fixed Route and Demand-Response Network Routes Within Corridor Service Original Simulation Study Fixed Route Operation Demand-Response Network Operation Some Dominant Demand Patterns Most Efficiently Served by Fixed Route Service Within Transit Network

Blend of Fixed Route and Network Demand-Response Service With Vehicles Sized to Match Ridership Requirements Source: Toyota Source: 2GetThere

Automated Transit Networks Already Running with Small Driverless Vehicles Masdar City ATN Source: 2GetThere London Heathrow Airport Terminal 5 Source: ULTra

Virtually-Coupled Trains of Driverless Vehicles Can be Served with a Parallel Berth Station Configuration Fixed route trains can be virtually uncoupled to use the same berths as smaller automated transit vehicles

Independent Driverless Transit Vehicles or Trains Can Serve Unique Station-to-Station Demand Patterns Trains can bypass stations that are not the destination of passengers onboard Shorter trains can connect specific high demand station pairs with direct service

Different Sizes of Transit Vehicles Can Also Serve the Same Stations as Automated Trains Demand-response dispatching of smaller vehicles can serve a transit network Individuals or groups share a ride between common origin/destination station pairs

Trains Can Be Dynamically Reconfigured to Serve Changing Demand Patterns in Real Time Virtual Coupling allows train reconfiguration Independent transit vehicles can be automatically coupled to a train for the next route segment when the next station destination is the same for all vehicles

Trains Can Be Dynamically Reconfigured to Serve Changing Demand Patterns in Real Time Independent transit vehicles can be automatically coupled to a train for the next route segment when the next station destination is the same for all vehicles

Automated Supervisory Control System Optimizes Customer Service, Energy Consumption and Operational Efficiency During periods of low demand vehicles can be held in a dormant state in station berths until dispatched into service

New Operational Paradigm Blends Demand Responsive Service With Direct Origin-to- Destination Trips With Fixed Route Transit Dynamic Signage in station berths to: Show the destination served by the next vehicle to arrive Similar to gate departure signage in airport terminals A A B C A A B C Dynamic Signage Showing Destination

Station Berths With Dynamic Signage to Show the Next Destination Served ATN Demand-Response & Fixed Route Source: Wikipedia Toyota IMTS, Aichi 2005 Transportation Expo Source: Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/adolfo_su%c3% A1rez_Madrid%E2%80%93Barajas_Airport

Impacts of AV/CV Technology Applications to Transit Over the Next 50 Years CONCLUSIONS

SYSTEMS AV/CV Transit Conclusions Driverless Vehicles of all sizes Removal of Switches will facilitate off-line stations Main line by-passes station Station passing lanes allow parallel berths Virtual Coupling for off-line station flexibility Individual vehicle berths

FACILITIES AV/CV Transit Conclusions Station Platform Considerations Platform designs suitable for large and small vehicle sizes Virtual coupling/uncoupling adds flexibility to serve both entrained and independent vehicles Dynamic signage similar to gate departure signage in airport terminals Platform edge doors may be required

OPERATIONS AV/CV Transit Conclusions Supervisory Control Systems will provide automated dispatching of all vehicles and will optimize all aspects of system performance: Real-Time Dispatching in response to individual passenger trip demands Dynamic Routing of each vehicle Dynamic Train Reconfiguration to maximize transitway capacities on high-demand segments Empty Vehicle Management to position vehicles where needed or remove from service

OPERATIONS AV/CV Transit Conclusions Dynamic Routing Fixed Routes Hourly demand patterns will determine train lengths and station pairs served Demand Response Independent vehicles dispatched upon demand call Dynamic Train Reconfiguration Reconfiguration of vehicles to form a new train possible in the station or on-the-fly along the transitway

How Automated Roadway Vehicle Technology Will Impact Transit Systems, Facilities and Operations J. Sam Lott Kimley-Horn and Associates, Inc. TexITE 2015 Conference November 12, 2015