RVI G R O U P Our Experience is Your Assurance RVI RISK OUTLOOK Quarterly Analysis of Key Issues and Trends in Consumer Leasing December 2017 Forecast at a Glance Key economic indicators signal that the US economy is growing at stronger pace. In the third quarter of 2017, GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.3%, up from 3.1% in the second quarter of 2017. The expansion reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures, private inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment and a decrease in imports. In November, the U.S. unemployment rate and the labor participation rate came in at 4.1% and 62.7% respectively, both unchanged from the previous month. Inflation came in at 2.2% for November, up from 2.0% in October. Light vehicle sales declined to 17.3 million SAAR in November. On a year-over-year basis, light vehicle sales declined by 1.2% in November. The lease penetration rate for the third quarter of 2017 came in at 22.9% of total sales, unchanged from the third quarter of 2016. Market level incentive activity has continued to grow, increasing to 10.1% of MSRP in November from 9.8% of MSRP in October. In November, the new vehicle CPI decreased by 0.8% on a year-over-year basis but was unchanged from October to November. Real used vehicle prices (seasonally adjusted; 2-5-year-old vehicles) declined slightly on a year-overyear basis. According to the RVI Used Car Price Index, (real) used vehicle prices (after adjusting for MSRP) fell by 0.1% in November 2017 when compared to November 2016. Similarly, month-over-month real used vehicle prices declined by 0.1%. On a month-over-month basis, about half of the segments saw small gains in used car prices. Prices for used vehicles are stronger than expected due to higher demand for both new and used vehicles after the hurricane season damaged approximately 1 million cars. The increasing supply of used vehicles and steady growth of incentive activity will continue to put downward pressure on used car prices. We expect lease penetration to remain near record highs over the next two years. As the increased supply of off-leased vehicles enter the market, we expect to see further declines in used car prices. Used vehicle prices are expected to decline by 8.2% from current levels by 2020. Real used vehicle prices in Canada increased in November on a year-over-year basis. In November, the exchange rate was $0.78 USD/CAD, unchanged from October 2017. Canadian GDP slowed down in the third quarter of 2017, coming in at an annual rate of 1.7%, down from the 4.3% achieved in the second quarter of 2017. New vehicle sales increased, with 2.1 million units (SAAR) sold in October 2017. Meanwhile, real used car prices increased by 2.7% from October to November. Looking ahead, we expect that a growing supply of off-lease vehicles in North America will continue to put downward pressure on used car prices, which are expected to decline by 6.5% from current levels by 2020. Contacts: Rene Abdalah Wayne Westring Josiah Cimino (203) 975-2147 (203) 975-2150 (203) 975-2139 rabdalah@rvigroup.com wwestring@rvigroup.com jcimino@rvigroup.com US: C O N T E N T S U.S. Economy 2 New Vehicle Market 3 Residual Outlook 4-6 Canadian Outlook 7-9 UPCOMING EVENTS North America International Auto Show Detroit, MI January 13th NADA Convention & Expo Las Vegas, NV March 22nd-25th Conference of Automotive Remarketing Las Vegas, NV March 6th-7th CANADA: Canadian International Auto Show Toronto February 16th RVI Group, 201 Broad Street, Sixth Floor, Stamford, CT 06901-2048 www.rvigroup.com December 2017
US Economy Chart 1 GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.3% in the 3 rd quarter of 2017, higher than the 2 nd quarter of 2017. % Change fromprevious period 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% GDP Growth Chart 3 On a year-over-year basis, overall CPI increased by 2.2% in November 2017. % Change fromyear earlier 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% Consumer Price Index (seasonally adjusted) - All Items Chart 2 The unemployment rate in November was 4.1%, unchanged from October 2017. The labor force participation rate was also unchanged from October to November. 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 Unemployment Rate (SA) and Labor Force Participation Rate (SA) 67.0 66.0 65.0 64.0 63.0 62.0 61.0 60.0 Chart 4 Consumer sentiment decreased to 98.5 in November from 100.7 in October 2017. In November 2016, the index was at 93.8. 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 U. of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment Unemployment Rate Participation Rate (Right Axis) U.S. economic growth expanded during 2017 Q3. Increases in consumer spending, private inventory spending and nonresidential fixed investment were the main drivers for the gains. The unemployment rate was unchanged in November. Employment levels remained strong in November, adding 228,000 nonfarm payroll jobs. Gas prices increased by 2.2% from October to November; on a year-over-year basis prices increased by 16.7%. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis Bureau of Labor Statistics US Department of Energy University of Michigan Chart 5 Gas prices increased to $2.68/gallon in November from $2.62 /gallon in October 2017. $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 U.S. Gas Prices (All Grades & Formulations) December 20172
New Vehicle Market Chart 6 Light vehicle sales were 17.3 million units (SAAR) in November, down from 18.0 million (SAAR) in October. Millions ofunits 20.0 19.0 18.0 17.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR) Chart 8 In November, the CPI for new vehicles remained unchanged from October 2017. Index (Jan 2001 = 1.0) 1.06 1.04 1.02 1.00 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.92 Consumer Price Index (seasonally adjusted)- New Vehicles Chart 7 New vehicle prices in November declined by 0.8% when compared to November 2016. % Change from year earlier 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Consumer Price Index (not seasonal adjusted)- New Vehicles Chart 9 In November, incentives were 10.1% of MSRP, slightly down from 10.2% in November 2016. Incentives % MSRP 12.00 11.00 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 Total Incentives (% of MSRP) Light vehicle sales declined in November after two very strong months of sales. New vehicle prices declined on a year-over-year basis. At the same time, incentive activity continues to grow when compared to a year ago. On average, market level incentive activity continues to be well above 2016 levels. Sources: Federal Reserve Economic Database Bureau of Labor Statistics Autodata Chart 10 We expect incentive activity to continue growing in the U.S. over the next four years. Our annual average forecast shows market level incentives surpassing 10.5% by 2020. Incentives % MSRP 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 Market Level Incentives % MSRP December 2017 3
Residual Outlook The lease penetration rate for 2017 Q3 was 22.9% of total sales. We expect the lease penetration to remain near historical highs over the next two years. In November, our lease supply index rose 13.8% when compared to November 2016. As a result of the strong leasing rates over the past 2 years, we expect off-lease supply to continue growing through 2020. Real used vehicle prices decreased by 0.1% in November when compared to October 2017. When comparing to November 2016, prices fell by 0.1%. We expect used vehicle prices to continue to soften through 2020. Chart 11 In 2017 Q3, the lease penetration rate was 22.9%. In 2016 Q3 the rate was at the same level. Lease Penetration 25% 23% 21% 19% 17% 15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% US Lease Penetration Rate (% of Total Sales) Chart 12 In 2017 Q3, most brands saw a decline in their lease penetration rate. Fiat and Volvo saw the largest increase while Audi and Volkswagen saw the largest decrease in lease penetration from 2016 to 2017. Change in Lease Penetration 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% Change in Lease Penetration (% of TotalSales) - 2017 vs. 2016 Chart 13 In November, our lease supply index (a measure of off-lease volume in the market) showed an increase of 13.8% when compared to November of 2016. Index(Jan. 01=1.00) 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 RVI Lease Supply Index RVI Analy tical Serv ices Chart 14 In November, real used vehicle prices decreased by 0.1% when compared to October. Index(Jan2001=1.0) 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 RVI Used Car Price Index - Real RVI Analy tical Services Table 1 By 2020, we expect used vehicle prices (real) to drop by 8.2% from today s levels. Nov-17 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Unemployment 4.1 4.4 3.8 3.8 4.6 5.0 4.9 Gas Prices $2.68 $2.53 $2.62 $2.58 $2.63 $2.69 $2.74 vs Previous Year 12.5% 3.4% -1.6% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% GDP Growth Rate (2017Q3) 3.3 2.6 2.8 1.4 1.4 2.7 2.6 New Vehicle Sales (SAAR 11/1/2017) 17.3 17.1 16.9 16.6 15.9 16.2 17.5 vs Previous Year -2.0% -0.9% -2.2% -4.3% 2.3% 7.6% RVI Used Vehicle Stock Index 0.972 0.932 1.010 1.049 1.066 1.043 0.990 vs Previous Year 7.8% 8.4% 3.9% 1.5% -2.1% -5.1% Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Moody s Analytics Forecast Department of Energy Bureau of Economic Analysis Federal Reserve Economic Database RVI Analytical Services POLK Automotive Data Autodata RVI Lease Supply Index 1.152 1.102 1.254 1.468 1.514 1.446 1.267 vs Previous Year 20.2% 13.8% 17.0% 3.1% -4.5% -12.4% RVI Competitive Index 0.880 0.890 0.885 0.895 0.910 0.925 0.924 vs Previous Year -2.8% -0.5% 1.1% 1.6% 1.7% -0.1% Market Level Incentives 10.1% 10.0% 10.3% 10.4% 10.5% 10.4% 10.3% RVI UCPI - Real 1.062 1.021 1.030 0.977 0.975 1.008 1.033 vs Previous Year -3.3% 0.9% -5.1% -0.2% 3.4% 2.4% vs Current Levels -3.0% -7.9% -8.2% -5.0% -2.7% December 2017 4
1.1 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 RVI Risk Outlook Residual Outlook Small SUVs The lease penetration for Small SUVs has grown over the past three years, partially due to the increasing popularity of SUVs. Used Small SUV prices on a year-over-year basis increased by 0.3% as of November 2017. Compared to a market level drop of 0.1%, this segment is slightly outperforming the market. As the increasing off-lease supply of Small SUVs enters the market, we expect real used vehicle prices for the Small SUV segment to decline by 9.7% below current levels by 2020. Chart 15 In 2017 Q3, the lease penetration rate for Small SUVs decreased to 26.5% from 27.6% in 2017 Q2. % of Total Sales 32% 27% 22% 17% 12% 7% 2% Lease Penetration Small SUV Chart 16 By 2020, we expect the supply of used vehicles in the Small SUV segment to increase by 28.6% from today s levels. 1.30 RVI Used Vehicle Stock Index Small SUV Table 2 More than half of the segments saw declines in used car values on a year-over-year basis in November. However, on a monthover-month basis most segments saw small gains. RVI USED VEHICLE PRICE INDEX-REAL % Change from RVI_SEGMENT Nov-17 Oct-17 Nov-16 M-to-M Y-to-Y LUXURY COUPE 1.067 1.083 1.115-1.4% -4.2% SUB-COMPACT 1.295 1.296 1.339-0.1% -3.3% SMALL PICKUP 1.367 1.334 1.405 2.5% -2.7% SMALL SEDAN 1.008 1.010 1.029-0.2% -2.0% FULL-SIZE SEDAN 0.970 0.966 0.983 0.3% -1.3% COMPACT 0.944 0.940 0.953 0.4% -1.0% FULL-SIZE VAN 1.033 1.043 1.043-0.9% -0.9% LUXURY MID-SIZE SEDAN 0.957 0.961 0.965-0.5% -0.9% MID-SIZE SEDAN 1.002 1.002 1.006 0.0% -0.4% MID-SIZE SUV 1.190 1.207 1.191-1.4% -0.1% MINIVAN 1.147 1.146 1.148 0.1% -0.1% FULL-SIZE SUV 1.035 1.038 1.032-0.3% 0.2% SMALL SUV 0.968 0.960 0.965 0.9% 0.3% LUXURY SUV 1.076 1.072 1.070 0.4% 0.5% SPORTY COUPE 1.056 1.046 1.039 1.0% 1.7% LUXURY FULL-SIZE SEDAN 1.062 1.041 1.042 1.9% 1.9% FULL-SIZE PICKUP 1.117 1.126 1.095-0.9% 1.9% LUXURY SMALL SEDAN 0.972 0.967 0.952 0.5% 2.1% SPORTS CAR 0.965 0.960 0.943 0.5% 2.3% Total 1.062 1.063 1.062-0.1% -0.1% Chart 17 Small SUV prices are expected to decline over the next three years. RVI Used Car Price Index 2001 2006 Small 2011 SUV 2016 2021 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.968 1.10 0.90 0.60 0.50 0.70 0.50 RVI Analytical Services RVI Analytical Services Table 3 By 2020, used car prices in the Small SUV segment are expected to drop by 9.7% from today s levels. Nov-17 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 RVI Competitive Index 1.089 1.060 1.104 1.120 1.129 1.130 1.128 vs Previous Year 4.8% 4.2% 1.4% 0.8% 0.1% -0.2% RVI Used Vehicle Stock Index 0.746 0.704 0.811 0.886 0.959 1.004 0.983 vs Previous Year 10.8% 15.1% 9.3% 8.3% 4.6% -2.1% RVI Used Vehicle Price Index - Real 0.968 0.933 0.934 0.883 0.874 0.896 0.915 vs Previous Year -3.3% 0.2% -5.5% -1.0% 2.5% 2.2% vs Current Levels -3.7% -3.5% -8.8% -9.7% -7.5% -5.4% December 2017 5
RVI Used Vehicle Price Index (Real) Forecast by Segment: USA USA - RVI Used Vehicle Price Index (Real): Forecast by Segment RVI SEGMENT Nov-17 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 SUB-COMPACT 1.295 1.246 1.250 1.188 1.205 1.275 1.319 vs Previous Year -5.5% 0.3% -4.9% 1.4% 5.8% 3.4% vs Current Levels -3.8% -3.5% -8.2% -6.9% -1.5% 1.9% COMPACT 0.944 0.906 0.915 0.872 0.876 0.911 0.940 vs Previous Year -5.2% 1.1% -4.7% 0.4% 4.0% 3.2% vs Current Levels -4.0% -3.0% -7.5% -7.2% -3.5% -0.3% MID-SIZE SEDAN 1.002 0.958 0.972 0.933 0.951 0.992 1.017 vs Previous Year -4.0% 1.5% -4.0% 1.9% 4.3% 2.5% vs Current Levels -4.4% -3.0% -6.9% -5.1% -1.0% 1.5% FULL-SIZE SEDAN 0.970 0.926 0.952 0.916 0.926 0.967 1.006 vs Previous Year -4.9% 2.9% -3.8% 1.1% 4.4% 4.1% vs Current Levels -4.5% -1.8% -5.5% -4.5% -0.3% 3.8% SPORTY COUPE 1.056 0.990 1.038 1.003 1.008 1.040 1.062 vs Previous Year -3.3% 4.8% -3.4% 0.6% 3.2% 2.1% vs Current Levels -6.3% -1.8% -5.1% -4.5% -1.5% 0.5% LUXURY COUPE 1.067 1.047 1.030 0.986 0.990 1.025 1.059 vs Previous Year -1.8% -1.6% -4.3% 0.4% 3.5% 3.3% vs Current Levels -1.9% -3.5% -7.6% -7.3% -4.0% -0.8% LUXURY SMALL SEDAN 0.972 0.924 0.934 0.898 0.912 0.934 0.944 vs Previous Year -4.0% 1.0% -3.8% 1.5% 2.4% 1.1% vs Current Levels -4.9% -3.9% -7.6% -6.1% -3.9% -2.8% LUXURY MID-SIZE SEDAN 0.957 0.931 0.941 0.912 0.912 0.939 0.960 vs Previous Year -3.5% 1.0% -3.1% 0.0% 3.0% 2.2% vs Current Levels -2.7% -1.7% -4.7% -4.7% -1.8% 0.3% LUXURY FULL-SIZE SEDAN 1.062 1.016 1.016 0.952 0.963 1.033 1.110 vs Previous Year -2.0% 0.0% -6.3% 1.2% 7.2% 7.5% vs Current Levels -4.3% -4.3% -10.3% -9.2% -2.7% 4.6% SMALL PICKUP 1.367 1.329 1.317 1.206 1.165 1.195 1.209 vs Previous Year -1.7% -0.9% -8.4% -3.4% 2.6% 1.2% vs Current Levels -2.8% -3.7% -11.8% -14.8% -12.6% -11.6% FULL-SIZE PICKUP 1.117 1.072 1.089 1.043 1.046 1.083 1.115 vs Previous Year 1.2% 1.6% -4.2% 0.3% 3.5% 2.9% vs Current Levels -4.0% -2.5% -6.6% -6.3% -3.0% -0.2% MINIVAN 1.147 1.081 1.132 1.099 1.108 1.148 1.175 vs Previous Year -2.4% 4.7% -2.9% 0.8% 3.6% 2.3% vs Current Levels -5.7% -1.3% -4.2% -3.4% 0.1% 2.4% FULL-SIZE VAN 1.033 0.993 1.019 0.981 0.977 1.010 1.034 vs Previous Year -1.5% 2.6% -3.8% -0.3% 3.3% 2.4% vs Current Levels -3.9% -1.4% -5.1% -5.4% -2.3% 0.1% SMALL SUV 0.968 0.933 0.934 0.883 0.874 0.896 0.915 vs Previous Year -3.3% 0.2% -5.5% -1.0% 2.5% 2.2% vs Current Levels -3.7% -3.5% -8.8% -9.7% -7.5% -5.4% MID-SIZE SUV 1.190 1.159 1.146 1.076 1.081 1.130 1.162 vs Previous Year -4.3% -1.1% -6.1% 0.5% 4.6% 2.8% vs Current Levels -2.6% -3.7% -9.6% -9.2% -5.0% -2.3% FULL-SIZE SUV 1.035 0.997 1.006 0.946 0.917 0.929 0.947 vs Previous Year -3.2% 0.9% -6.0% -3.1% 1.3% 1.9% vs Current Levels -3.6% -2.7% -8.6% -11.4% -10.2% -8.5% LUXURY SUV 1.076 1.059 1.036 0.966 0.951 0.977 0.997 vs Previous Year -3.5% -2.2% -6.7% -1.6% 2.7% 2.0% vs Current Levels -1.6% -3.7% -10.2% -11.6% -9.2% -7.4% Market Level 1.062 1.021 1.030 0.977 0.975 1.008 1.033 vs Previous Year -3.3% 0.9% -5.1% -0.2% 3.4% 2.4% vs Current Levels -3.9% -3.0% -7.9% -8.2% -5.0% -2.7% December 2017 6
Canadian Outlook Chart 18 Canadian GDP slowed down during the third quarter of 2017, growing at an annual rate of 1.7%. 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% % Change fromprevious period10.0% GDP Growth - Canada Chart 21 The US to Canadian exchange rate decreased from $0.79 USD/CAD in October to $0.78 USD/CAD in November. As of December 13, 2017, the exchange rate was at $0.78 USD/CAD. $US per $Can 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 Exchange Rate Chart 19 Unemployment decreased to 5.9% in November from 6.3% in October 2017. 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted) Chart 22 Canadian gas prices increased to $1.23/liter in November from $1.15/liter in October. When compared to November 2016, gas prices are up by 18.0%. Canadian Cents Per Liter 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 Regular Gas Prices - Canada Chart 20 Prices (CPI) have increased by 1.4% from October 2016. % Change from year earlier 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% Consumer Price Index (seasonally adjusted) - All Items Chart 23 Light vehicle sales were 2.1 million SAAR in October, a 5.0% increase from October of 2016. Millions ofunits 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 Canadian Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR) 1.2 Sources: Statistics Canada. Kent Group Ltd. December 2017 7
Canadian Outlook (Cont d) Chart 24 In October 2017, new vehicle prices saw an increase of 5.0% from October 2016. Chart 25 For our Canadian forecast, we focus on the supply of offlease vehicles in the North American market. For November 2017, our Lease Supply Index increased by 13.9% when compared to November 2016. Table 4 Among higher volume segments, Small SUV prices increased the most on a year-over-year basis. Meanwhile, Sub-Compact Cars continued to perform below market average. RVI USED VEHICLE PRICE INDEX-REAL % Change from RVI_SEGMENT Nov-17 Oct-17 Nov-16 M-to-M Y-to-Y LUXURY FULL-SIZE SEDAN 0.812 0.934 0.968-13.0% -16.1% SUB-COMPACT 0.750 0.886 0.830-15.4% -9.7% COMPACT 0.947 0.911 0.970 3.9% -2.4% FULL-SIZE SEDAN 0.929 0.802 0.932 15.8% -0.4% MID-SIZE SUV 1.067 1.079 1.069-1.1% -0.2% SMALL SEDAN 0.824 0.839 0.807-1.8% 2.1% FULL-SIZE PICKUP 1.134 1.094 1.105 3.7% 2.7% LUXURY SUV 1.022 1.048 0.964-2.5% 6.0% FULL-SIZE SUV 0.927 0.910 0.865 1.9% 7.1% MID-SIZE SEDAN 1.047 1.010 0.974 3.6% 7.5% MINIVAN 0.985 0.929 0.910 6.0% 8.3% FULL-SIZE VAN 0.858 0.982 0.778-12.7% 10.2% LUXURY COUPE 1.412 1.297 1.277 8.9% 10.6% LUXURY SMALL SEDAN 0.994 0.958 0.889 3.8% 11.8% LUXURY MID-SIZE SEDAN 1.126 1.113 0.997 1.1% 12.9% SMALL SUV 0.987 0.956 0.871 3.3% 13.4% SPORTY COUPE 0.977 0.892 0.854 9.5% 14.4% SMALL PICKUP 1.505 1.299 1.219 15.9% 23.5% Total 0.999 0.973 0.960 2.7% 4.1% *Low volume vehicle segments highlighted in gray Table 5 Due to a growing supply of used vehicles (including many offlease vehicles), we expect Canadian used car prices to decline by 6.5% by 2020, relative to current levels. Nov-17 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Unemployment 5.9 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 Gas Prices (CAN$ / L) $ 1.23 $ 1.14 $ 1.16 $ 1.10 $ 1.12 $ 1.16 $ 1.17 vs Previous Year 12.1% 2.2% -5.0% 1.0% 4.3% 0.6% GDP Growth Rate (2017Q2) 1.70 3.10 2.20 1.45 2.06 2.15 2.23 Exchange Rates (US$ per CAN$) 0.78 0.77 0.80 0.84 0.85 0.83 0.84 Chart 26 In November, used car prices increased 2.7% when compared to October. On a year-over-year basis, real used vehicle prices increased by 4.1%. New Vehicle Sales (SAAR 10/1/2017) 2.13 2.03 2.03 2.01 1.96 1.95 1.96 vs Previous Year 5.0% 0.1% -1.4% -2.2% -0.4% 0.2% RVI Competitive Index 0.909 0.918 0.907 0.915 0.925 0.933 0.934 vs Previous Year -5.0% -1.2% 0.8% 1.1% 0.9% 0.1% RVI Lease Supply Index (North America) 1.040 0.994 1.135 1.319 1.366 1.324 1.194 vs Previous Year 19.8% 14.2% 16.2% 3.6% -3.1% -9.8% RVI Used Vehicle Stock Index 0.917 0.908 0.945 0.987 1.027 1.032 1.012 vs Previous Year 2.9% 4.1% 4.4% 4.0% 0.5% -2.0% RVI UCPI - Real 0.999 0.949 0.981 0.939 0.934 0.947 0.961 vs Previous Year 0.5% 3.4% -4.3% -0.5% 1.4% 1.5% vs Current Levels -5.1% -1.9% -6.1% -6.5% -5.2% -3.9% Sources: Statistics Canada Moody s Analytics Forecast RVI Analytical Services Kent Group Ltd December 2017 8
RVI Used Vehicle Price Index (Real) Forecast by Segment: Canada Canada - RVI Used Vehicle Price Index (Real): Forecast by Segment RVI_SEGMENT Nov-17 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 SUB-COMPACT 0.750 0.795 0.736 0.692 0.694 0.713 0.724 vs Previous Year -2.5% -7.4% -6.0% 0.2% 2.7% 1.6% vs Current Levels 6.1% -1.8% -7.7% -7.5% -4.9% -3.5% COMPACT 0.947 0.909 0.929 0.875 0.871 0.891 0.907 vs Previous Year 2.4% 2.2% -5.8% -0.5% 2.4% 1.8% vs Current Levels -3.9% -1.8% -7.5% -8.1% -5.9% -4.2% MID-SIZE SEDAN 1.047 0.953 1.029 0.981 0.978 0.996 1.012 vs Previous Year 2.8% 8.0% -4.7% -0.4% 1.9% 1.6% vs Current Levels -9.0% -1.6% -6.2% -6.6% -4.8% -3.4% FULL-SIZE SEDAN 0.929 0.941 0.908 0.864 0.867 0.889 0.912 vs Previous Year 4.7% -3.5% -4.8% 0.4% 2.5% 2.5% vs Current Levels 1.3% -2.2% -6.9% -6.6% -4.3% -1.8% SPORTY COUPE 0.977 0.902 0.958 0.903 0.903 0.929 0.946 vs Previous Year 5.6% 6.2% -5.8% 0.0% 2.9% 1.9% vs Current Levels -7.7% -1.9% -7.6% -7.6% -5.0% -3.2% LUXURY COUPE 1.412 1.268 1.385 1.328 1.322 1.340 1.361 vs Previous Year 0.5% 9.2% -4.1% -0.4% 1.4% 1.6% vs Current Levels -10.2% -1.9% -6.0% -6.4% -5.1% -3.6% LUXURY SMALL SEDAN 0.994 0.935 0.966 0.918 0.910 0.918 0.932 vs Previous Year -1.9% 3.3% -4.9% -0.9% 0.9% 1.4% vs Current Levels -5.9% -2.8% -7.6% -8.4% -7.6% -6.3% LUXURY MID-SIZE SEDAN 1.126 1.102 1.102 1.048 1.042 1.056 1.071 vs Previous Year 0.1% 0.0% -4.9% -0.6% 1.4% 1.4% vs Current Levels -2.2% -2.1% -6.9% -7.5% -6.2% -4.8% LUXURY FULL-SIZE SEDAN 0.812 0.930 0.795 0.768 0.762 0.777 0.805 vs Previous Year -1.6% -14.6% -3.4% -0.7% 2.0% 3.5% vs Current Levels 14.6% -2.1% -5.4% -6.1% -4.3% -0.9% SMALL PICKUP 1.505 1.333 1.479 1.442 1.409 1.396 1.409 vs Previous Year 4.8% 11.0% -2.5% -2.3% -0.9% 1.0% vs Current Levels -11.5% -1.7% -4.2% -6.4% -7.3% -6.4% FULL-SIZE PICKUP 1.134 1.061 1.113 1.104 1.097 1.091 1.105 vs Previous Year 0.2% 4.9% -0.8% -0.6% -0.5% 1.2% vs Current Levels -6.5% -1.8% -2.6% -3.3% -3.8% -2.6% FULL-SIZE VAN 0.858 0.813 0.842 0.809 0.805 0.813 0.823 vs Previous Year -2.4% 3.6% -3.9% -0.6% 1.0% 1.3% vs Current Levels -5.2% -1.8% -5.7% -6.2% -5.3% -4.0% MINIVAN 0.985 0.908 0.957 0.927 0.929 0.937 0.949 vs Previous Year 0.4% 5.4% -3.1% 0.2% 0.9% 1.3% vs Current Levels -7.8% -2.9% -5.9% -5.7% -4.8% -3.6% SMALL SUV 0.987 0.936 0.969 0.915 0.911 0.929 0.943 vs Previous Year -0.3% 3.5% -5.5% -0.5% 2.0% 1.5% vs Current Levels -5.1% -1.8% -7.2% -7.7% -5.9% -4.5% MID-SIZE SUV 1.067 1.063 1.043 0.995 0.992 1.011 1.029 vs Previous Year -3.4% -1.9% -4.6% -0.4% 1.9% 1.8% vs Current Levels -0.4% -2.3% -6.8% -7.1% -5.3% -3.6% FULL-SIZE SUV 0.927 0.898 0.911 0.892 0.879 0.874 0.885 vs Previous Year -3.0% 1.5% -2.1% -1.5% -0.5% 1.2% -3.1% -1.7% -3.7% -5.2% -5.7% -4.5% LUXURY SUV 1.022 1.027 1.000 0.952 0.947 0.961 0.974 vs Previous Year 1.0% -2.6% -4.8% -0.5% 1.5% 1.3% vs Current Levels 0.5% -2.1% -6.9% -7.4% -6.0% -4.7% Market Level 0.999 0.949 0.981 0.939 0.934 0.947 0.961 vs Previous Year 0.6% 3.3% -4.3% -0.5% 1.4% 1.5% vs Current Levels -5.0% -1.9% -6.1% -6.5% -5.2% -3.9% December 2017 9
RVI G R O U P Our Experience is Your Assurance RVI Group offers a broad portfolio of specialty insurance products, financial solutions and analytical services. With our sophisticated underwriting, risk analysis and asset valuation expertise; we deliver a wide range of benefits to clients worldwide. RVI Group s two insurance companies are the world s leading providers of residual value insurance. For over 25 years, our solutions have brought financial, regulatory and accounting benefits to clients who are active worldwide in leasing, asset-based finance, and asset securitization. Residual value insurance helps clients manage asset value risk by guaranteeing that a properly maintained asset will have a specified value at a future date. It is an enormously flexible tool with benefits that range from simple risk mitigation to complex financial objectives such as capital and expense optimization. Residual value insurance has applicability in three major asset areas: Passenger Vehicles, Commercial Equipment and Aircraft, and Commercial Real Estate. RVI Analytical Services, Inc. provides residual value analysis of passenger vehicle portfolios for leasing companies and car manufacturers. RVIAS also offers a number of services to help clients manage risk at different stages of a lease term. These services include econometric risk modeling, portfolio value forecasting and end-of-term exposure analysis. Our offices located in Stamford, Connecticut, Hamilton, Bermuda and Scarsdale, New York serve the need of our clients in the United States, Canada, Europe, and Asia. Passenger Vehicles Our core expertise is residual risk assessment based on deep industry knowledge and sophisticated analytics. Our insurance solutions are underwritten utilizing proprietary modeling and residual value forecasts. Residual Value Insurance is utilized to a) manage residual risk exposure against unforeseeable market fluctuations, and b) optimize lease accounting by creating a financial asset which improves efficiency ratios. We work closely with clients to understand their business objectives, so that each insurance policy is custom designed to precisely match the client s needs. Each client is supported by a dedicated account team to provide RVI s best-in-class customer service. We serve a wide range of lessors and lenders: banks, captive finance companies, independent lessors, credit unions, and fleet management companies. New Residual Value Products to provide added confidence to dealers as they stock, trade and sell vehicle inventory and reduce uncertainty and limit risk for consumers in automobile transactions: Market Value Protection (MVP): short-term (30-90 day) residual value insurance providing coverage on the value of vehicles bought or sold in the wholesale market. MVP mitigates a dealer s risk to shifts in market values. Trade Value Protection (TVP): TVP offers a marketing advantage to dealers by allowing them to provide protection to a consumer in connection with the tradein of a purchased vehicle within a 2-4-year timeframe. TVP enhances customer loyalty by providing protection only upon return to the same dealer or OEM for the next vehicle purchase. *This is not a solicitation of business. These materials are provided for information purposes only and are provided on an as is, as available basis. 201 Broad Street Stamford, CT 06901-2048 Tel. 203.975.2100 Fax 203.975.2199 www.rvigroup.com