2 14 by Order Survey brent haight Shale Sets The Tone Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide s Mechanical Drive Order Survey is part two of three surveys designed to provide details on the markets of larger reciprocating engines, steam turbines and gas turbines used in power generation, mechanical drive and marine propulsion applications. Data is divided into three reports in order to provide a more in-depth look at each market segment. The Mechanical Drive Order Survey is devoted to engine orders for mechanical drive applications including pumps, compressors, oil exploration machinery, rail and other industrial applications. The Power Generation Order Survey (published in the May issue) examines reciprocating engines, steam turbines and gas turbines for power generation service. The Marine Propulsion Order Survey (to appear in the July/ August issue) examines mechanical drive, auxiliary and diesel-electric marine propulsions systems. Procedures The Mechanical Drive Order Survey includes drivers beginning at 5 kw (.5 MW). New orders are broken into reciprocating engine, gas turbine and steam turbine orders. types are simplified to reflect only liquid versus gaseous fuels. Liquid fuel, as reported in this survey, can be any form of diesel oil. An accompanying table identifies those companies that participated in the 214 survey. Every effort is made to ensure that this survey is as complete and comprehensive as possible and would not have the level of detail it contains without the generous contributions of the participating companies. It is important to note that the data in this survey does not represent units shipped, but only the total orders received during calendar-year 213. For reference, the geographic breakdown that was presented to the participating OEMs along with the survey forms is included in this report. Overview The 214 Mechanical Drive Order Survey (213 order data) reported 4453 total orders (all reported drive types), a 27% decline in total orders compared to last year s survey. It is important to note that fluctuations in OEM participation beyond our control do influence year-over-year comparison. As revealed in past Mechanical Drive Order surveys, as shale goes, so goes prime mover orders within the mechanical drive segment. Capacity issues, natural gas pricing concerns and myriad regulatory hurdles have slowed shale activity around the world. The result: order books in 213 marked the second straight year of decline. There were bright spots within the mechanical drive landscape. Rail continues to show promise for OEMs supplying 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Reciproca)ng Engine Orders Output Range Mechanical Drive Reciprocating Engine Orders, January December 213 Number Of Output For Each Output Range Engine Operating Speed Ranges 3 to 6 72 to 1 above 1 Diesel Heavy.5 to 1. 241 1525 241 2328 8 74 568 42 23 248 121 13 23 1364 2 6 1.1 to 2. 1384 23 1384 796 588 167 134 218 55 5 1 759 3 33 2.1 to 3.5 253 66 27 226 198 55 16 6 14 8 3 11 63 6 3.51 to 5. 5.1 to 7.5 7.51 and above Totals 447 4134 27 42 3322 8 717 751 182 23 66 184 21 44 2186 5 45 Natural Gas Western Europe Central America & June 214 Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide
214 Mechanical Drive Order Survey Mechanical Drive Gas Turbine Orders, January December 213 Output Range Number Of Output For Each Output Range Diesel Heavy Natural Gas 1. to 2. 2.1 to 3.5 3.51 to 5. 2 7 2 2 5.1 to 7.5 7.51 to 1. 3 23 3 1 2 1.1 to 15. 12 161 12 4 3 5 15.1 to 2. 4 74 4 4 2.1 to 3. 117 3368 3 114 3 42 5 5 4 3 15 2 17 21 3.1 to 6. 47 156 47 1 7 5 3 6 2 2 15 6 6.1 to 12. 16 1385 16 1 6 12.1 to 18. 4 512 4 4 18.1 and above Totals 25 79 3 22 5 63 14 13 1 5 17 4 38 5 31 Western Europe Southeast Asia North America Central America & South America prime movers to that market. More and more countries are adding to their rail infrastructure and adding capacity in both passenger and freight transit. Analysts report that continues to be a top market for rail prime mover applications, followed by India, Brazil and Australia. The timeline of tightening emissions regulations moves almost in tandem with advances in LNG technology. This will provide opportunities in the rail sector for manufacturers able to meet the challenge. The large potential fuel cost savings from the switch to LNG locomotives from diesel has resulted in great interest on 6 5 4 3 2 1 Steam Turbine Orders 25 2 15 1 5 Gas Turbine Orders the part of the freight rail industry, observers, and analysts. The companies have discussed the potential of LNG as comparable with the switch from steam propulsion to diesel in the 194s and 5s. Other industry experts have responded with more caution, likening the switch to the more evolutionary transformation of diesel-electric freight rail locomotives from direct current (dc) to alternating current (ac) propulsion that has been occurring since the early 199s. Manufacturers are aggressively pursuing LNG. In November, CSX Corp. and GE announced an agreement to explore LNG technology for locomotives, beginning with a pilot program Mechanical Drive Steam Turbine Orders, January December 213 Output Range Number Of Output Condensing Steam Turbine Types Non- Condensing Reheat Extraction Induction Central America &. to 1. 1 29 9 91 8 14 18 15 11 28 6 1.1 to 5. 33 78 7 26 1 6 5 4 7 1 9 5.1 to 1. 16 137 12 2 2 1 1 3 5 2 1 3 1.1 to 3. 27 526 13 3 11 3 1 2 5 7 7 1 1 1 2 3.1 to 6. 24 168 19 5 1 17 3 3 1 6.1 to 12. 1 64 1 1 12.1 and Above Totals 21 192 6 122 19 4 1 23 29 46 33 1 1 44 3 11 Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide June 214
214 Mechanical Drive Order Survey Combined Geographic Totals (All Driver Types) January December 213 & Australia 27 18 66 48 268 227 665 766 top geographic destination for mechanical drive recip engines., the second top geographic destination for recip engines within the mechanical drive segment, received 18% of 213 order, followed by the Far East, which received 15%. The remains a region to watch and could someday challenge for top geographic location. Recip engine orders destined for the rose 96% from 212 to 213. Central America & 13 87 in 214. CSX plans to develop an LNG test plan and secure regulatory approvals. Under the agreement, GE will deploy its new Next natural gas retrofit kits for CSX. The kits enable existing GE Evolution Series locomotives to operate with dualfuel capabilities. EMD is researching dynamic gas blending (DGB) and high-pressure direct injection (HPDI). According to EMD, DGB would allow for the substitution of up to 6% of LNG for diesel fuel and HPDI up to 9% of the diesel. Despite a slowdown in shale activity, it is easy to find guarded optimism for order growth within the oil and gas segment. The U.S. is racing to become an LNG export leader, a game changer across many aspects of the energy landscape should the U.S. reach its goals. Elsewhere, China is making aggressive moves to capitalize on its own shale fields, announcing multiple partnerships between western OEMs and Chinese shale players. Hope does glimmer in the distance but not without concern from all players involved as, ultimately, oil and gas is an industry forced to move at the speed of government. This being the case, look for continued decline in prime mover orders within the mechanical drive market segment in 214. Reciprocating Engines The number of reciprocating engines ordered in 213 total 447 units, a 28% decrease compared to last year s survey. The majority of orders were divided between the output ranges of.5 to 1 MW (241 units) and 1.1 to 2. MW (1384 units). Engine operating speeds above 1 accounted for 99% of the recip orders reported in the survey. Diesel fuel once again dominated the fuel type, accounting for 82% of the reported orders. claimed the top geographic destination for reciprocating engines in 213 (54%), though recip orders in fell 42% between 212 and 213. Prolonged storage constraints will contribute to continued decline in recip orders within the mechanical drive landscape in North America, but until another country matches s shale development and infrastructure, it will remain the 2268 Gas Turbines Gas turbine orders increased by 18% compared to the 213 Mechanical Drive Order Survey. Total orders reported in this survey equaled 25. with the output range of 2.1 to 3. MW received the most orders (57%), followed by units rated 3.1 to 6. MW (23%). 6 5 4 3 2 1 12 1 8 6 4 2 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Combined Totals (All Driver Types) June 214 Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide
214 Mechanical Drive Order Survey Reciprocating Engine Manufacturers Participating And Reporting In This Mechanical Drive Order Survey Caterpillar Energy & Transportation Caterpillar Inc. Fairbanks Morse GE Distributed Power GE Power & Water Niigata Power Systems Co. Ltd. Rolls-Royce Power Systems Steam Turbine Manufacturers Participating And Reporting Orders In This Mechanical Drive Order Survey Dresser-Rand Fincantieri S.p.A. MAN Diesel & Turbo SE Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Compressor Corp. Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems Ltd. Gas Turbine Manufacturers Participating And Reporting In This Mechanical Drive Order Survey Dresser-Rand GE Distributed Power GE Power & Water MAN Diesel & Turbo Rolls-Royce Power Systems Siemens AG Siemens Industrial Turbomachinery Ltd. Vericor Power Systems Russia and CIS was once again the top geographic location for gas turbines in mechanical drive applications, receiving 31% of the orders. claimed the number two geographic location, accounting for 19% of the orders reported, followed by (15%). Steam Turbines Steam turbine orders fell 39% compared to last year s surveys. Total steam turbine units ordered in 213 was 21, falling mostly within the. to 1. MW output range (5%). Noncondensing steam turbines saw the most demand, accounting for 61% of the total steam turbines ordered. Due to varying classifications by OEMs, there is a slight difference between the totals reflected within the accompanying steam turbine orders chart. In some cases, extraction admission condensing turbines were counted as extraction and induction, respectively. The claimed the top geographic location with 23% of the total units ordered. accounted for 22%, followed by the, which totaled 16%. Annual Surveys On behalf of Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide, thank you to all contributors for your continued participation in this annual survey process. It is our hope that the three surveys combined will provide an accurate snapshot of the entire large engine landscape, with fine-tuned detail provided for three market segments through each individual report power generation, mechanical drive and marine propulsion. Electronic versions of past surveys are available at our website: www. dieselgasturbine.com. Questions, comments and suggestions should be directed to bhaight@dieselpub.com. A Country Information For Regions/Regional Codes D>W Annual Market Surveys Andorra Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Iceland Liechtenstein Luxembourg Italy Ireland Malta Netherlands Norway Portugal San Marino Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Estonia Georgia Hungary Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lithuania Moldova Poland Republic of Macedonia Romania Russia Serbia Slovac Republic Tajikistan Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan Bahrain Cyprus Egypt Iran Iraq Israel Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey United Arab Emirates Yemen China Hong Kong Japan Mongolia North Korea South Korea Taiwan Australia Brunei Burma Cambodia Fiji Islands Indonesia Kiribati Laos Malaysia Marshall Islands Micronesia Palau Papua New Guinea Philippines Samoa Singapore Solomon Islands Tahiti Tonga Thailand Tuvalu Vanuatu Vietnam Afghanistan Bangladesh India Maldives Islands Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Algeria Libya Morocco Tunisia Angola Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Cape Verde Cen. n Rep. Chad Comoros Congo Cote d Ivoire Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Gabon Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea Bissau Ivory Coast Kenya Lesotho Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mauritius Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Rwanda Senegal Seychelles Sierra Leone Somalia South Sudan Swaziland Tanzania Togo Uganda Zaire Zambia Zimbabwe Canada U.S.A. Central America & Bahamas Bermuda Belize Costa Rica Cuba Dominica Domin. Republic El Salvador Guatemala Haiti Honduras Jamaica Mexico Nicaragua Panama Puerto Rico Virgin Islands West Indies Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Guyana Paraguay Peru Surinam Uruguay Venezuela REPRINTED FROM JUNE 214 DIESEL & GAS TURBINE WORLDWIDE Copyright Diesel & Gas Turbine Publications Printed in U.S.A.