EURO 6d Diesel Performance & Impact on Urban Air Quality

John Cooper Director General EURO 6d Diesel Performance & Impact on Urban Air Quality

Conclusions from Ricardo & AERIS studies EURO 6d vehicles tested by Ricardo under «RDE conditions» are compliant with the EU emissions limits for NOx and PM. AERIS modelling shows that by 2030 there is almost no difference in population exposure between the Zero Emission Vehicle scenario and the progressive replacement of diesel vehicles by Euro 6d diesel standard. As a result, replacing all new diesel vehicles by zero emission vehicles (tailpipe) will offer little improvement to the compliance outlook compared with the Euro6d scenario. Page 2

Findings from Ricardo & AERIS studies Page 3

Ricardo plc 2017 Expected Light Duty Vehicle Emissions from Final Stages of Euro 6 EU Refining Forum - 1 December 2017 Dr Nick Powell

Ricardo plc 2017 Unclassified - Public Domain Q015607 RD17-004000-2E 1 December 2017 5 Euro 6 Legislation Summary The New European Drive Cycle (NEDC), used since the 1990s, requires relatively light load and low speed engine operating conditions Drive cycles used for Euro 6 passenger cars Drive Cycle Duration (s) Average Speed (km/h) Maximum Speed (km/h) Maximum Acceleration (m/s 2 ) NEDC 1180 33.3 120.0 1.04 Source: EU Regulation, Ricardo

Ricardo plc 2017 Unclassified - Public Domain Q015607 RD17-004000-2E 1 December 2017 6 Euro 6 Legislation Summary The Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Cycle (WLTC) is more representative of real world driving conditions than NEDC Drive cycles used for Euro 6 passenger cars Drive Cycle Duration (s) Average Speed (km/h) Maximum Speed (km/h) Maximum Acceleration (m/s 2 ) NEDC 1180 33.3 120.0 1.04 WLTC 1800 46.5 131.3 1.67 RDE and WLTC have Increased number & magnitude of accelerations Higher maximum speeds Source: EU Regulation, Ricardo

Ricardo plc 2017 Unclassified - Public Domain Q015607 RD17-004000-2E 1 December 2017 7 Euro 6 Legislation Summary An RDE cycle is complementary to the WLTC, testing vehicles on real roads under realistic driving conditions Drive cycles used for Euro 6 passenger cars Drive Cycle Source: EU Regulation, Ricardo Duration (s) Average Speed (km/h) Maximum Speed (km/h) Maximum Acceleration (m/s 2 ) NEDC 1180 33.3 120.0 1.04 WLTC 1800 46.5 131.3 1.67 RDE 6769 49.7 159.6 4.17 Ricardo s RDE cycle is an example of a valid high speed and high dynamic RDE test RDE and WLTC have Increased number & magnitude of accelerations Higher maximum speeds Environmental conditions Moderate RDE : 0 C to 30 C, 0 to 700m altitude Representative of most normal driving Extended RDE : -7 C to 35 C and 1300m altitude

Ricardo plc 2017 Load Unclassified - Public Domain Q015607 RD17-004000-2E 1 December 2017 8 Euro 6 Legislation Summary The implementation of WLTC and RDE from 2017 will extend the engine speed and load conditions at which emissions are regulated The New Engine Drive Cycle (NEDC) Light load and low speed engine WLTC NEDC RDE The Worldwide harmonised Light vehicles Test Cycle (WLTC) Emissions control over wider speed load range Speed Real Driving Emissions (RDE) Measured on-road using Portable Emissions Measurement System (PEMS) In real road and traffic conditions

Ricardo plc 2017 Unclassified - Public Domain Q015607 RD17-004000-2E 1 December 2017 9 Passenger Car Euro 6 Tailpipe NOx Emissions The stages of Euro 6 introduction show a progressive reduction in real world driving diesel NOx emissions Diesel NOx under real world test conditions (0 C to 30 C, 0 to 700m altitude) Type Approval Dates September 2014 August 2017 April 2016 August 2017 September 2017 December 2019 January 2020

Ricardo plc 2017 Unclassified - Public Domain Q015607 RD17-004000-2E 1 December 2017 10 Passenger Car Euro 6 Tailpipe NOx Emissions The stages of Euro 6 introduction show a progressive reduction in real world driving diesel NOx emissions Diesel NOx under real world test conditions (0 C to 30 C, 0 to 700m altitude) Type Approval Dates September 2014 August 2017 April 2016 August 2017 September 2017 December 2019 January 2020

Ricardo plc 2017 Unclassified - Public Domain Q015607 RD17-004000-2E 1 December 2017 11 Passenger Car Euro 6 Tailpipe NOx Emissions The stages of Euro 6 introduction show a progressive reduction in real world driving diesel NOx emissions Diesel NOx under real world test conditions (0 C to 30 C, 0 to 700m altitude) Type Approval Dates September 2014 August 2017 April 2016 August 2017 September 2017 December 2019 January 2020 Post 2015 vehicles which meet Euro 6 NOx levels under at least one real driving test cycle

Ricardo plc 2017 Unclassified - Public Domain Q015607 RD17-004000-2E 1 December 2017 12 Passenger Car Euro 6 Tailpipe NOx Emissions The stages of Euro 6 introduction show a progressive reduction in real world driving diesel NOx emissions Diesel NOx under real world test conditions (0 C to 30 C, 0 to 700m altitude) Type Approval Dates September 2014 August 2017 April 2016 August 2017 September 2017 December 2019 January 2020 Post 2015 vehicles which meet Euro 6 NOx levels under at least one real driving test cycle

Ricardo plc 2017 Unclassified - Public Domain Q015607 RD17-004000-2E 1 December 2017 13 Passenger Car Euro 6 Tailpipe NOx Emissions The stages of Euro 6 introduction show a progressive reduction in real world driving diesel NOx emissions Diesel NOx under real world test conditions (0 C to 30 C, 0 to 700m altitude) Ricardo opinion Type Approval Dates September 2014 August 2017 April 2016 August 2017 Post 2015 vehicles which meet Euro 6 NOx levels under at least one real driving test cycle September 2017 December 2019 January 2020 Parity between WLTC and RDE expected

PM 2.5 Emissions inventory by technology level for Personal Cars Diesel in Germany by scenario - Ricardo Median and ZEV post-2020 Pre_Euro Euro1 Euro2 Euro3 Euro4 Euro5 Euro6 Non_Exhaust (kt) 14 Ricardo Median 14 ZEV Scenario 12 12 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Beyond 2020, non-exhaust emissions dominate transport PM emissions 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 15

NO 2 Emissions inventory by technology level for Personal Cars Diesel in Germany by scenario - Ricardo Median and ZEV post-2020 (kt) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Pre_Euro Euro1 Euro2 Euro3 Euro4 Euro5 Euro6 Ricardo Median 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 ZEV Scenario 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 16

Concentration (µg/m 3 ) NO 2 Range of Maximum Concentration Across all Stations in EU28 120 100 80 60 Total number of stations for NO 2 = 2392 Median Ricardo ZEV Limit Value Measuring station with highest NO 2 concentration does not show any significant improvement in Zero Emission Vehicle scenario. 24 stations (1%) are non-compliant 40 20 0 91% 91% 97% 97% Percentage of stations in compliance 99% 99% 99% 2015 2020 2025 2030 99% Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 17

NO 2 Concentration (µg/m 3 ) NO 2 Concentration (µg/m 3 ) Air Quality benefit of ZEV Scenario Highest measuring stations show ~ zero response to ZEV scenario: 90 Munich - Highest AQ Station 120 Paris - Highest AQ Station 80 70 100 60 80 50 40 30 20 10 60 40 20 To address remaining exceedances, we need to understand the source attribution at each location. 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 18

Population Exposure (NO 2 ) EEA Methodology* Paris 2020 100% Population Exposure - Paris > 45µg/m3 40-45µg/m3 35-40µg/m3 < 35µg/m3 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% => Traffic station => Background station 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 * Exceedance of air quality standards in urban areas EEA annually reviewed indicator https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/exceedance-of-air-quality-limit-3/assessment-3/download.pdf Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 21 20% 10%

Population Exposure (NO 2 ) EEA Methodology Paris 2025 100% Population Exposure - Paris > 45µg/m3 40-45µg/m3 35-40µg/m3 < 35µg/m3 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 22

Population Exposure (NO 2 ) EEA Methodology Paris 2030 100% Population Exposure - Paris > 45µg/m3 40-45µg/m3 35-40µg/m3 < 35µg/m3 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Remaining hot spots will require targeted measures based on the emission source to make them compliant 20% 10% 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 23

Population Exposure (NO 2 ) EEA Methodology Munich 2020 100% Population Exposure - Munich > 45µg/m3 40-45µg/m3 35-40µg/m3 < 35µg/m3 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 24

Population Exposure (NO 2 ) EEA Methodology Munich 2025 100% Population Exposure - Munich > 45µg/m3 40-45µg/m3 35-40µg/m3 < 35µg/m3 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 25

Population Exposure (NO 2 ) EEA Methodology Munich 2030 100% Population Exposure - Munich > 45µg/m3 40-45µg/m3 35-40µg/m3 < 35µg/m3 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Remaining hot spot will require targeted measures based on the emission source to make it compliant 20% 10% 0% 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 26

Summary Based on Ricardo s estimates for EURO 6d emission levels under RDE conditions, compliance with current air quality regulated emission limits will be largely achieved by 2025/30 For NO2, in 2020 approx. 4% of monitoring stations are assessed to be non-compliant, and by 2025 this reduces to 2%. By 2030 1% of the stations remain uncompliant, in both scenarios (Ricardo Median & ZEV). Diesel PM exhaust is a diminishingly small contributor to Urban Air Quality Brake & tyre wear dominates primary PM emissions from passenger cars regardless of the powertrain technology. AERIS modelling shows that by 2030 there is no difference in population exposure between the ZEV scenario and the Ricardo Median scenario. Using London as a case study, extensive modelling work by DEFRA highlights the importance of source attribution in designing effective local responses to address the remaining hotspots. Conclusion: AERIS modelling shows that, from 2020 onwards, replacing all new diesel vehicles by zero emission vehicles (tailpipe) will offer little improvement to the compliance outlook compared with the Ricardo Median Euro6d scenario Copyright 2017 Aeris Europe Limited Slide 27

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION This document was presented by John Cooper, Director General john.cooper@fuelseurope.eu FuelsEurope 165, Boulevard du Souverain 1160 Brussels - Belgium T: +32 2 566 91 00 Follow us: fuelseurope @fuelseurope fuelseurope www.fuelseurope.eu