WEEKLY CHANGE WEEKLY CHANGE il 2, 2018 Two weeks of positive changes in car values as springtime buying continues with full force. Anil Goyal, Executive Vice President, Operations +0.8% +0.6% +0.4% +0.2% -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% -0.8% -1. +$29 +0.57% +$30 +0.43% +$21 +0.27% +$47 +0.49% +$29 +0.2 -$116-0.68% +$15 +0.05% +$48 +0.36% -$16-0.05% +$22 CARS +0.23% +0.4% +0.2% -0.2% -0.4% -0.6% -0.8% +$23 +0.21% -$20-0.14% -$30-0.15% -$18-0.12% -$109-0.6 -$54-0.28% -$50-0.17% -$3-0.03% -$19-0.14% -$112-0.62% -$30 TRUCKS -0.2 Model Years: 2009-2015, Volume Weighted Wholesale Average Values, Weekly Change from 3/23/18 to 3/30/18 Two Weeks of Increases in Car Values Volume-weighted, overall car segment values increased by 0.23% last week. In comparison, the market values had increased by 0.26% in the week prior. In cars, all non-luxury segments performed well, with values seeing an increase. Volume-weighted, overall truck segment (including pickups, SUVs and vans) values decreased by 0.2 last week. In comparison, the market values had decreased by 0.19% in the week prior. In trucks, the Compact Luxury Crossover/SUV and Full-Size Pickup segments performed the worst.
il 2, 2018 Sentiment from the Auction Lanes Our editors and personnel attend about 60 auctions every week across the country to provide key insights: The last two weeks have been really, really good for our auction. We have had good vehicle volumes and for two straight weeks our sales percentages have been in the mid 60 s. Auction GM in Texas The rental and off-lease lanes always do better than the dealer lanes but today they performed even better. The dealer reps were holding out for more money which hurt their sales percentage. Gerry in FL We had a mixed bag with an abundance of passenger cars and a shortage of trucks. This imbalance caused truck prices to be really strong. Dave in PA There were fewer vehicles to choose from today, which pushed the values up from previous weeks. Our market remains strong. Matt in CO The sales percentage was good, even though both buyers and sellers seemed to be more selective. Richard in WI 36-Month Residual Forecast by Segment Percent of Typically Equipped MSRP ch 2018 Publish Source: Black Book Visual Analytics The residuals are declining from current retention trends. At a specific vehicle segment, brand, and individual vehicle levels, residual forecasts show different trends. Vehicle Highlight The All-New 2018 Buick Regal TourX is Buick s first attempt at a wagon since the Century. Only available in AWD, the TourX is equipped with a 2.0L Turbocharged four cylinder that is capable of 250 hp and 265 lb-ft of torque. MSRP for the TourX starts at $29,995 including destination charges and its main competition includes the Subaru Outback, VW Golf Alltrack, and Volvo V60. This week s report includes our Monthly Edition Supplement on Specialty kets. 2
SPECIALTY MARKETS: COLLECTIBLE CARS il 2, 2018 Amelia Island Auctions Post Solid Results The main events of the Amelia Island Concours d Elegance were supported by auctions hosted by RM Sotheby s, Bonhams, Gooding, Hollywood Wheels, and Motostalgia. Total sales were about $80,000,000, which is about $40,000,000 less than last year s $120,000,000. However, the sell through rate was 68%, two points higher than 2017 s 66%. There were fewer cars on offer this year, 489 versus 550 in 2017. Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty kets 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 European Sports Cars RM Sotheby s sale was successful, achieving total sales of $27,500,000 and an 85% sell through rate. Although that s down about $43,000,000 from last year, the sales percentages were about the same, and this year s auction was a single day auction (down from two days last year). Gooding had a very good sale, improving to $35,500,000 from $30,500,000 last year. Their 94% sell through ratio (81 of 86 vehicles offered) was very impressive. Bonhams sales reached $13,200,000 with an 87% sell through, Motostalgia came in at $2,300,000 and 69%, and Hollywood Wheels wrapped things up with $1,800,000 and 23%. Porsche 911 Carrera RS. Courtesy of RM Sotheby s. Notable Recent Auction Sales Include: 1993 Porsche 911 Carrera RS $1,655,000 (RM Sotheby s) 2003 Ferrari Enzo $2,365,000 (Gooding) 1967 Ford GT40 Coupe $1,925,000 (Gooding) 1996 Porsche 911 GT2 $1,485,000 (Gooding) 2015 McLaren P1 Coupe $1,710,000 (Bonhams) 1959 Porsche 365A Carrera Coupe $632,000 (Bonhams) 1992 Porsche 911 Turbo Coupe $343,000 (Bonhams) 2005 Mercedes SLR McLaren Coupe $286,000 (Motostalgia) 2003 BMW Z8 Alpina Roadster $216,000 (Hollywood Wheels) 1964 Buick Riviera Coupe $57,250 (Hollywood Wheels) 3
Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 SPECIALTY MARKETS: RECREATIONAL VEHICLES il 2, 2018 RV Values At Auctions Begin Their Spring Increases RV values at auction, including all towable and motorized vehicle segments, increased last month. This is what we had expected, as this is the time of year dealers in seasonal climates begin to restock their lots to be ready for the initial onslaught of customers lured in by warmer weather. Note that auction volume has risen as well, as all facets of the vehicle remarketing network have begun to wake up after a long, cold winter. Eric Lawrence, Director of Specialty kets 55000 50000 Motor Home Value Trends 45000 40000 35000 30000 For Motor Homes (including Class A, B, and C) Average selling price was $47,682, up $1,977 (4.3%) from the previous month One year ago, the average selling price was $38,845 Auction volume was up 11% from the previous month 15000 14000 Travel Trailer and Fifth Wheel Value Trends 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000 For Towables (including Travel Trailers and Fifth Wheels) Average selling price was $13,655, up $354 (2.6%) from the previous month One year ago, the average selling price was $13,235 Auction volume was up 9% from the previous month 4
SPECIALTY MARKETS: POWERSPORTS il 2, 2018 Powersports ket Beginning To Heat Up After last month s rather large, but uneven, gains, the Powersports market settles into a more typical pattern of price adjustments as spring has officially begun. Nearly all the segments that should be up are, and by healthy if unspectacular amounts. Scott Yarbrough, Motorcycle & Powersports Editor 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. Motorcycle & Powersports Percent Changes ch to il 2018 3.5% 3.1% 2.5% 2.2% 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 1.4% -1. -0.9% -1.2% -0.6% -2. Dealers appear to be well stocked for the current selling season, and of particular note, entry level Street Bikes and smaller displacement Cruisers are seeing the highest demand at the moment. The Scooter segment is the biggest mover among the bikes, up 2.5%, with Metric Cruisers not far behind with an increase of 2.2%. Metric Cruisers have made up a little of the ground they lost relative to their domestic counterparts last month, which are up only 1.4% this time. Snowmobiles have now started their downward slide until next winter, dropping 1.2%, while the Jet Boats and Personal Watercraft are up substantially, with gains of 3.1% and 3.5% respectively. Utility Vehicles and ATVs are both down a bit this month, dropping 0.6% and 0.9% respectively. Dual Sports, Off-Road bikes, and Street bikes are all up nominal amounts for the time of year. 5
Monthly Change SPECIALTY MARKETS: HEAVY DUTY il 2, 2018 New Heavy-Duty Orders Are Helping to Stabilize the Used ket Supply is a major factor in maintaining used Heavy-Duty Truck Values going into Spring. Charles Cathey - Medium and Heavy Duty Truck Editor New Truck Orders, primarily Over the Road and Regional Tractors, are at a high level and lead times are increasing for the current year. A number of individuals and companies large and small are needing dependable equipment now because of this situation and will more than likely continue this demand throughout the year. The latest versions of Class 7 and 8 trucks are being ordered at a steady pace, and if the supply of the current generation of trucks continues, the sales values should remain stable. Used truck buyers are warming up to the more efficient design, engine, and transmission offerings of these newer generation units to improve their cost of operation. Late model, good condition, and low miles are a big factor as well in maintaining and supporting this strong demand. The Construction/Vocational segment has maintained a strong used truck showing in recent months. There is no foreseeable reason for this to fall off the current pace since most reports are very positive for continued funding and support of the various projects related to this segment. -$200 -$400 -$600 -$800 -$1,000 -$1,200 Average Wholesale Value Changes (ket) Construction/Vocational Over the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors Construction/Vocational Over the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors MODEL DATE Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change YEARS 04/01/18 88,255-399 -0.5% 69,848-387 -0.6% 61,881-279 -0.4% 2015-2016 03/01/18 88,654-407 -0.5% 70,235-406 -0.6% 62,160-326 -0.5% 2015-2016 2015-2016 HD Construction/Vocational segment dropped an average of $399 (0.5%) in ch compared to the average decline of $407 (0.5%) in ruary. 2015-2016 HD Over the Road Tractor segment dropped an average of $387 (0.6%) in ch compared to the average drop of $406 (0.6.%) in ruary. 2015-2016 HD Regional Tractor segment dropped an average of $279 (0.4%) in ch compared to the average depreciation of $326 (0.5%) in ruary. Construction/Vocational Over the Road Trucks & Tractors Regional Tractors MODEL DATE Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change Value $ Change % Change YEARS 04/01/18 44,028-451 -1. 30,400-371 -1.2% 23,249-380 -1.6% 2007-2014 03/01/18 44,479-346 -0.8% 30,771-370 -1.2% 23,629-241 -1. 2007-2014 2007-2014 HD Construction/Vocational segment dropped an average of $451 (1.) in ch compared to the $346 (0.8%) in ruary. 2007-2014 HD Over the Road Tractor segment dropped an average of $371 (1.2%) in ch compared to $370 (1.2%) average depreciation in ruary. 2007-2014 HD Regional Tractor segment dropped an average of $380 (1.6%) in ch compared to the average drop of $241(1.) in ruary. 6
SPECIALTY MARKETS: MEDIUM DUTY il 2, 2018 A More Normal Depreciation Returns for ch New units are putting some downward pressure on used prices. Josh Giles - Senior Truck Editor This past month we saw wholesale prices drop a little more than we experienced in January and ruary, returning to a more normal monthly depreciation. Late model units (2015-2016) dropped an overall weighted average of $254 (0.6%). This is $188 more than the depreciation we witnessed last month. New supply is supporting some downward pressure on used prices. Used supply has also slightly increased, contributing to the downward movement in the market. Older units (2007-2014) dropped an average of $119 (0.6%), which is $66 more than last month. The current average price for a 4 11-year-old unit in this segment is $19,331. This time last year this segment averaged $18,156, a difference of $1,175. When we did this same comparison last month the difference was $1,165. So, even with the negative change in market trends, this segment continues to improve. New orders continue to rise with the growing demand for units in this industry. From construction to deliveries, and everything in between, these units perform numerous key jobs in our everyday lives. This demand is only going to grow as consumers continue to increase online shopping, choosing to have their goods delivered straight to their homes as opposed to shopping at retail stores. With this in mind, we feel like the overall market will not drop due to the increased production. Medium Duty MODEL Medium Duty MODEL DATE Value $ Change % Change YEARS DATE Value $ Change % Change YEARS 04/01/18 19,331-119 -0.6% 2007-2014 04/01/18 45,118-254 -0.6% 2015-2016 03/01/18 19,450-53 -0.3% 2007-2014 03/01/18 45,372-66 -0.1% 2015-2016 Diesel Price Changes 02/12/18 02/19/18 02/26/18 03/05/18 03/12/18 03/19/18 +.50 +.46 +.43 +.41 +.41 +.43 -.02 -.04 -.02 -.02 -.02 +.00 Price Chg/Week Price Chg/Year Fuel prices have dropped just a bit since last month s report. As a national average, we are currently paying $2.97 per gallon for diesel. This is.06 less than last month when the average was $3.03 per gallon. This time last year we were paying an average of $2.54. Last year fuel prices slowly decreased through the spring and summer months before increasing in the fall. Let s hope the later doesn t occur this year. 1745 N. Brown Rd., Suite 130, Lawrenceville, GA 30043 1.866.452.1400 www.blackbook.com info@blackbook.com Opt-in to receive reports from Black Book at http://www.blackbook.com/insights/market-insights 7