GRID SOLUTIONS for ENERGY ACCESS FOR ALL Hitendra Dev Shakya System Planning Department Nepal Electricity Authority
S D G 7 - Sustainable Energy for All Affordable and Clean Energy - Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all.
Energy <- - Grid Electricity What SDG 7 means to an Electric Utility other - Energy is presumed as Electricity 1% Electricity is presumed as Grid Electricity And in Nepal, Grid Electricity is presumed as Hydroelectricity Biomass 87% Electricity is Off-grid in Remote areas On-grid Electricity follows far behind But it is still about Electricity only. Hydro-electricity Half the assumption is corrected as Renewable, Petroleum 9% Electricity 2% AND electricity as a source of energy is increasing with technology and time (18% world average/ 2% Nepal) Coal 3%
Grid Map of Nepal Areas covered by Grid Electricity
Off-Grid Nepal Map of areas covered by AEPC
How Long to wait for Reliable Electricity? Connecting the two Haves and Have Nots Nepal facts 1. Mountainous country - Road access is limited 2. Grid Electricity 60% of the population, Geographical coverage Central hills, southern plains and eastern border region and western border region < 40% of populated areas 3. Off-Grid claims of 15% access, but not functioning, many fall to disrepair within few years of operation 4. Subsidy to Off-Grid Micro-hydro power or solar grid conditional on distance from Grid > 5 years (No Economics)
Where there is a will, there is a way..
A Snapshot hard work for Energy in Remote Areas
How Long to wait for Reliable Electricity?- >> From Grid Expansion Direction >> 1. Grid expansion is targeted is towards large loads and towards generators large loads and 2. Market-based generators Transmission Development Only suitable Market-based for Large Transmission Generators and Consumers 3. Grid Development Grid Expansion expansion Only is is Capital afflicted suitable intensive for by ROW and low returns Large 4. Grid issues Generators expansion and is large and Consumers afflicted affected by ROW areas issues - and large affected Forces areas transmission Forces transmission lines to lines to Grid Government Expansion domain is domain Capital order not to increase cost of energy up-front intensive and low returns 5. Transmission Transmission Network Network is centrally is centrally planned (Top-down approach) and planned the expansion (Top-down is approach) slow and the expansion is slow
>>Looking from the Rural Off-Grid>> A look at the Off-Grid MHP model The distribution network Poor, not safe for grid connection. MHP One MHP - Design aspect at river - The discharge Electronic of Load high Low Income ( low plant factor/ low productive uses) forces low quality exceedence Controller of Operation. (ELC) (Q90); is used. yet Plant Controls factor is Distance 20-30% frequency from only. Road-head by dummy increases load - O&M Useful time and cost MHP where Problem - The Design switchgear raw at of river material MHPs discharge - Not - Low ready free of Income high for exceedence gridinterconnection The factor/ distribution 20-30% low productive etc. ( low (Q90); yet Plant Water/wind/solar plant only. network uses) The Electronic BUT most Load villages Controller would (ELC) find is a used. viable Poor, not forces safe low for quality grid connection. of Operation. Controls frequency river source by dummy for MHP load -( Useful pico, where micro raw or mini) material is free if a Water/wind/solar workable business etc. model and funding The switchgear - Not ready for grid-interconnection. available Distance from Road-head increases BUT most villages would find a viable river source for MHP ( Low O&M pico, skill/ time micro knowhow, and cost or mini) low if a workable p.f. and low business model revenue, and funding accessibility, available less room for industrial use >> tendency to fail
Success factors Creativity and adaptation
Grid Solutions to Off-Grid distribution 1. Inter-connection of Clusters of small power plants in a mini-grid ready for Connectivity with Grid 2. Help / subsidy >> Grid-readiness for remote/ offgrid generators/ users >> synchronizing switchgear and relaying Grid Energy is mostly cheaper and reliable than Isolated systems. 1. Distributed Generation has Multiple Impacts on Local economy that offsets the Initial high costs of electricity 2. Spin-off for Grid - Reduces demand on Reinforcement of grid & Reactive power management by doing Distributed generation Most rural areas in Nepal have Some sources to produce Electricity 1. Mountain areas Hydro and Solar; Remote areas in Terai Solar and Biopower, some areas wind etc. 2. Government support for Grid Connectivity Sustainability of the DG and also enable expansion of grid. Biggest Bang for a Buck >> EARLY ACCESS TO CLEAN ELECTRICITY BY ALL >>
Electronic Load Controller - as governor of MHP Role of Switched ELC in Grid-operated MHP 1. Protective device against Over-speed during Grid-disconnect 2. Allows Operator mobility and free to work within village
SUBSIDY or VGF is required to make MHPs Inter-connected / Grid Ready Typical costs of Interconnection of a <100 kw MHP VCB - 6 lakh,..\..\temp\visitsrilanka\option I_Mini Grid Drawing_VCB on both Feeder.pdf Transformer - 4 lakh, CT,PT - 0.5C + meter - 2 lakhs, synchronizing eqpt, ELC+ AVR modification - 4 lakh Switchyard, LA and Isolator, Earthing - 3 lakh Commissioning - 2 lakh VAT + contingency - - 3 lakh Total -24 lakh ~ 24,000 $ Providing for O&M costs and interest of loan, the Payback period is 7/8 years for 20kW, and 4/5 years for 30 kw, excluding Plant costs and interests if any. Hence, Interconnection requirement at 11kV with VCB and metering is Not Viable for very small MHP Example 20kW Syaure MHP Grid-connection costs- 2.4 mill Subsidy - Cash 0.5 million -Credit 0.5 million soft loan at 5% interest -Yet, the Revenue 1,035,000. -O&M + int costs - 750,000. Profit 285,000. = 7 yrs Payback 14
BangDovan Mini-grid- Baglung District >> Along Mid-hill highway; Grid is within 50 km reach >> Population and electricity demand is increasing it is Off-Grid >> Planning for a sub-transmission and mini-grid subsidy will deliver Grid supply quickly 15
Usually, Isolated MHPs fall into disrepair (the community is not well-synthesized, and tariff does not support major repair, nor quality operation) MHPs when connected to grid - provides incentive to operate due to Profit from Energy supplied to Grid. Becomes Sustainable Sustainability of MHP is a net gain for community and the government. No sunk costs, Local economic activity boosted, jobs, technical base Technical - Voltage boost, losses reduction, less capacity investment, dry season energy Challenges - Feed In tariff- comparably Low [NRs 4.8 (8mth)/8.4 (4mth)] Financing for Interconnection equipment High costs Once grid-connected, capacity can be upgraded (from Q90 to Q40) Plant Factor may increase from 30% to 90%. Private equity injection to MHP/ Isolated mini-grid and private management models are being explored to make them sustainable. 16
What works for MHP will also help Access for Rural areas, So Get Bigger for survival! Get Inter-connected and Grid Ready Source World Bank report on Nepal:Scaling up Access through mini-grid
Connecting Off-Grid to Grid-> Best of Both Worlds Off-Grid MHP - Subsidy for Grid-Connectivity Required -> Sub-transmission networks radial 132kV line, 132/33/11 kv substations and 33/11 kv lines to villages/ MHP Investment in Sub-transmission lines by Govt. - as Integrated subsidy plan to clusters of MHPs, padded with soft Loans - in Build Own Transfer BOT model - After Subsidy, remaining Amortized costs to be recovered as Local Transm. Charges from present and future Users of the Line Optimized Network planning from sub-transmission line requirements from villages Bottom Up but Coordinated approach Subsidy to Off-Grid electrification with Biggest Bang for the Buck - Distributed Generation bringing multiple local benefits + system benefits What Next? CEUG. 18
Financial Initiative that worked Grid Connected Community Electricity Users Group CEUG Subsidized distribution of electricity at NRs 3.60 / kwh to Community Electricity User Groups (CBOM) Community Electrification 90% subsidy by Government 10% community - enabled expansion of rural networks at 400V / 11 kv and 33 kv It has worked No of CEUG increasing and its consumer members The technical (distribution- 6-8%) and non-technical loss (> 8-10%) that otherwise occur justify the reduction in tariff below cost of generation, Generation and transmission cost = 27382 M NRS, Total energy = 4794 (6% system loss) M units, = 5.70 / unit Cost of Energy for NEA at 11kV delivery - w/o operating costs /depreciation / overhead) Tariff needs revisit due to increased purchase price. Administrative cost of NEA ( Losses ) to administer the Rural Distribution is saved. For Embedded Generators within CEUG, Purchase tariff is Bounded. For Larger MHPs, near such CEUG, it should be connected to Grid directly before the CEUG point to enable it to get the Regular PPA Tariff.
Options for Grid Solutions 1. Optimized network planning and Extensive Public Investment 2. Private Investment for the Funding Gap - > Market -based Transmission Development Only suitable for Large Generators and Consumers
Transmission Lines NEPAL High Voltage Transmission Lines & Substations Existing (Circuit km) Under Construction (Circuit km) 66kV Voltage Level 511.16 - Planned (Circuit km) 132kV Voltage Level 2337.7 1010.0 1320.0 220kV Voltage Level - 659.0 949.8 400kV Voltage Level - 648.0 6495.6 Total 2848.86 2317.0 8765.4 Substations Existing (Numbers/Capacity) Under Construction (Numbers/Capacity ) 66kV Voltage Level 13/509.15MVA - Planned (Numbers/Capacity) 132/66kV Voltage Level 28/1622.4MVA 10/506.5MVA 21/917MVA 220kV Voltage Level - -(*) 18/3876MVA 400kV Voltage Level - - 5/2025MVA 21
Investment on Transmission The core of the transmission network is to be commissioned during the next 10 years. The total investment cost planned for the whole 2015-2035 period amounts to 5.15 billion USD and is mainly concentrated in first ten years, i.e. between 2015 and 2025: Label 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 All Zones Commissioning from 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Total to year 2019 2024 2029 2034 MUSD MUSD MUSD MUSD MUSD MUSD Lines Comm. 412.8 621.1 214.2 0.0 0.0 1248.1 Lines Planned 138.1 332.6 181.7 0.0 0.0 652.3 Lines All 550.9 953.7 395.9 0.0 0.0 1900.5 S/S Existing 123.0 60.2 13.2 34.5 26.1 257.1 S/S Comm. 410.0 231.3 82.7 81.5 0.0 805.4 S/S Planned 47.4 358.0 215.2 67.1 5.3 693.1 S/S All 580.5 649.5 311.1 183.0 31.4 1755.6 Total Existing 123.0 60.2 13.2 34.5 26.1 257.1 Total Comm. 822.8 852.4 296.9 81.5 0.0 2053.6 Total Planned 185.5 690.6 396.9 67.1 5.3 1345.4 Total All 1131.4 1603.2 707.0 183.0 31.4 3656.0 Connection Lines 142.6 584.2 420.4 76.8 4.1 1228.1 Connection Bays 38.5 83.6 118.4 25.4 6.5 272.4 Grand Total 1312.5 2270.9 1245.9 285.2 42.0 5156.5 22
Grid Expansion Issues... 1. Optimized network planning and Extensive Public Investment 2. Private Investment for the Funding Gap - > Market -based Transmission Development Only suitable for Large Generators and Consumers 3. For challenge faced from PAF by ROW and Towers 1. Considering options of Long-Term Lease in lieu of Purchase/ one-time compensation Yet to be proven. 2. Pro-rata allocation of Project developer equity from the lot given to affected people Long-term benefit sharing by the people Yet to be proven 4. Build, Own and Transfer (BOT) model for transmission / distribution lines by communities and Build Transfer model for isolated generators Policy in process 5. Policy of declaration of shallow Grid Not done yet
Off- Grid Earlier Access -> Amortized costs Sustainable / Profitable MHP Most Bang for Buck Efficient Admin of Rural Consumers Focus- DG and Village Load potential Subsidy / Soft Loan for 33 and 11 kv sub-trans /distrib links to Grid MHP subsidy Extend TO Grid Synchro equipment Community Electricity Users Groups CEUG Handover Grid Solutions Integrated Planning for Subtransmission network Energy to All by National Grid Access Change Approach Grid Planning for DG and Rural Access Policy for Transmission charges and Private Trans owner / operator Build and Transfer BT Policy for Private Generators Grid Side Funding Deficit-> Private Capital Use Hydrodevelopers strength for Construction & ROW
What has worked? MHP and distribution network with larger consumer base and anchor loads Case - Khumbu Bijuli (900kW), Salleri Chyalsa (400kW) ) Having Periodic oversight and Support Subsidized tariff to CEUG ( having small consumers & capped to 5 A users) Successful CEUGs adapting the lessons learnt. What needs reform? Stand-alone MHPs with weak consumer base Scale up! Top-down Rural Electrification without Regional Optimized planning > Reverse direction! Subsidy for MHP / Rural electrification Include Grid Connectivity with Partial Payback (90/10 model ) in the Integrated Subsidy model! What can be learnt? for Rapid Grid Expansion Involve community allow BOT for sub-transmission networks and Use subsidy/ VGF model Involve Private / Developers and / or allow BT model for rapid expansion of Main Grid 25
Creativity and adaptation Top-down approach of grid-planning coordinated with Bottom-Up approach to Identify/Prioritize and Investment Rethink - Need to support/ subsidize community-driven / owned grid-connection and expansion coupled with local DG economics.
Thank you! Namaste! Q&A and discussion