FAPRI 26 Preliminary Baseline December 15-16, 25 INTERNATIONAL DAIRY FAPRI Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute Fengxia Dong (515) 294-47 fdong@iastate.edu Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 511-17 17 (515) 294-1183 http://www.fapri.iastate.edu
Major Baseline Themes World Dairy Markets Trade: Expansion Prices: Gradual rise over the long term Major Exporters Australia & New Zealand: Export growth European Union: Export decline Argentina: Export growth Major Importers Asia: Steady growth of import demand Russia: Import growth
Macro-Per Capita GDP US Dollar per capita 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 22 24 26 28 21 212 214 China Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Philippines Russia Thailand
Macro-Population Million 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 China India Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Philippines Thailand
Macro-Exchange Rate 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Argentina Australia Brazil China EU-15 New Zealand
Dairy Product Output for Modeled Countries 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Million MT 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
Ukraine Per-Capita Butter Consumption for Selected Countries Kg per capita 1 8 6 4 2 Argentina Australia EU-NMS EU-15 India Japan Mexico New Zealand Russia 1996/2 21/25 26/21 211/215
25 2 15 1 5 Per-Capita Cheese Consumption for Selected Countries Kg per capita Argentina Australia EU NMS EU-15 Japan Mexico New Zealand Russia Ukraine 1996/2 21/25 26/21 211/215
Per-Capita NFD and WMP Consumption for Selected Countries Kg per capita 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 China Malaysia Philippines Indonesia South Korea Thailand Vietnam Venezuela 1996/2 21/25 26/21 211/215
World Dairy Product Net Trade 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Net Export Growth: Major Exporters 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 Butter Cheese NFD WMP Argentina Australia EU New Zealand Ukraine Uruguay
Net Import Growth: Major Importers 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 -4 Butter Cheese NFD WMP China Egypt Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Philippines Russia
World Dairy Prices (Australian Dairy Prices) AU Dollar per MT 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP
FOB Northern European Dairy Prices U.S. Dollar per MT 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Australian Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 kg per Head 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
Australian Dairy Production 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Million MT 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
Australian Dairy Net Exports 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP
New Zealand Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, kg per Head 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
New Zealand Dairy Production 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Million MT 25 2 15 1 5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
New Zealand Dairy Net Exports 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP
EU-15 Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 25, 2, 15, kg per Head 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 1, 5, 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 3, 2, 1, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
EU-15 Dairy Production 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Million MT 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk 5
EU-15 Dairy Prices Euro per 1 kg 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP Butter Intervention NFD Intervention
EU NMS Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, kg per Head 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
EU NMS Dairy Production 8 7 6 5 Million MT 25 2 15 4 3 2 1 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk 1 5
EU-25 Dairy Production 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Million MT 16. 14. 12. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk.
EU-25 Dairy Net Exports 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Argentine Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 3, kg per Head 6, 2,5 5, 2, 4, 1,5 3, 1, 2, 5 1, 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
Argentine Dairy Production 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Million MT 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
Argentine Dairy Net Exports 25 2 15 1 5-5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Brazilian Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 2, kg per Head 2,5 18, 16, 2, 14, 12, 1,5 1, 8, 1, 6, 4, 5 2, 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
Brazilian Dairy Production 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Million MT 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
Brazilian Dairy Net Imports 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Mexican Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 2,5 kg per Head 6, 2, 1,5 5, 4, 3, 1, 5 2, 1, 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
Mexican Dairy Production 25 Million MT 14 2 15 1 5 12 1 8 6 4 2 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
Mexican Dairy Net Imports 25 2 15 1 5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Colombian, Peruvian, Uruguayan, and Venezuelan Milk Production 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Colombia Peru Venezuela Uruguay
Colombian, Peruvian, Uruguayan, and Venezuelan Dairy Net Imports 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Chinese Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, kg per Head 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
Chinese Dairy Production 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 Million MT 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk
Chinese Dairy Net Imports 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1-1 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Indian Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, kg per Head 13 11 9 7 5 3 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 1 Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
Indian Milk Production 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Cow Milk Other Milk (Buffalo)
Indian NFD and Butter Production and Trade 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Million MT 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5-5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 NFD Prod. NFD Net Exports Butter Net Imports Butter Prod..
Japanese Dairy Production 25 Million MT 1. 9. 2 8. 7. 15 6. 5. 1 4. 3. 5 2. 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD Milk 1..
South Korean Dairy Production 7 Million MT 2.7 6 5 4 3 2 1 2.5 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.7 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD Milk 1.5
Indonesian, Malaysian, Philippine, Thai, and Vietnamese Milk Production 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Indonesian Malaysian Philippine Thailand Vietnam
Asian Dairy Net Imports 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Russian Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, kg per Head 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 2, 1,5 1, 5 Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
Russian Dairy Production 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Million MT 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD Milk
Russian Dairy Net Imports 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Thank You!
Butter Net Exports for Selected Countries 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Australia New Zealand EU-15 Other ROW
Butter Net Imports for Selected Countries 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Asia Egypt Mexico Russia Other ROW
Cheese Net Exports for Selected Countries 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Argentina Australia EU-15 New Zealand Ukraine
Cheese Net Imports for Selected Countries 1, 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Japan Mexico Russia United States Other ROW
NFD Net Exports for Selected Countries 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Australia EU-15 New Zealand U.S. India Other Exporters
NFD Net Imports for Selected Countries 25 2 15 1 5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 China Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Philippines Thailand Vietnam
WMP Net Exports for Selected Countries 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Argentina Australia EU-15 New Zealand Other Exporters
WMP Net Imports for Selected Countries 14 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 China Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Thailand Venezuela Vietnam
EU-15 Butter and SMP Stocks 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter NFD
EU-15 Dairy Net Exports 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP
EU NMS Dairy Net Exports 25 2 15 1 5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Uruguay Dairy Production 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Million MT 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..8.6.4.2 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP Milk.
Uruguay Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head kg per Head 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
Uruguay Dairy Net Exports 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Indian Dairy Product Consumption 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Million MT 5, 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter NFD Fluid Milk
Japanese Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 1,5 kg per Head 1, 1, 95 9,5 9, 8,5 9 85 8, 7,5 8 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 7, Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
South Korean Cow Inventory and Milk Yield Thousand Head 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 kg per Head 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Cow Inventory Yield per Cow
Japanese Dairy Net Imports 3 25 2 15 1 5 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD
South Korean Dairy Net Imports 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD
Indonesian Dairy Net Imports 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Malaysian Dairy Net Imports 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Philippine Dairy Net Imports 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Thai Dairy Net Imports 12 1 8 6 4 2 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP
Vietnam Dairy Net Imports 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 Butter Cheese NFD WMP