Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions of transport t beyond 2020 Linking R&D, transport policies and reduction targets Project co-ordinator: Dr. Wolfgang Schade w. schade@isi. fraunhofer. de
Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions of transport t beyond 2020 Linking R&D, transport policies and reduction targets TREMOVE Lars Akkermans Transport & Mobility Leuven Lars.Akkermans@tmleuven.be
Presentation summary TREMOVE What is it? Model history Model structure Different s Model use Examples TREMOVE in GHG TransPoRD 11.10.2011 GHG transpord TREMOVE 3
Presentation summary TREMOVE What is it? Model history Model structure Different s Model use Examples TREMOVE in GHG TransPoRD 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 4
TREMOVE what is it? Policy assessment model Transport Environment Estimates: Transport demand Modal split Vehicle stock Emissions Welfare EU27+CH, NO, TR, HR Coded in GAMS Uses six s Transport demand Vehicle stock turnover Fuel consumption and emissions i Welfare cost cost Lifetime emissions 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 5
TREMOVE history Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions i Emissions by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions 11.10.2011 GHG TransPoRD TREMOVE model 6
TREMOVE 1-1999 Developed by : KUL, DRI For : European Commission, DG ENV Application in Auto-Oil II programme Cost-effectiveness analysis of : Vehicle emission standards Fuel quality standards Non-technical measures Public transport subsidies, scrappage, Fuel taxes 11.10.2011 TREMOVE training - Duke University 7
TREMOVE 1 Only road transport Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions Emissions by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Stock structure Cost Fuel consumption Only exhaust emissions 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 8
TREMOVE 1 model 1995-2020 with annual intervals Base case scenario Exogenous demand based on national transport models Endogenous fleet evolution Simulation scenario Also demand is endogenous, depending on policy, no optimalisation 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 9
TREMOVE 1 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 10
TREMOVE 2.0 244 2.44 2002-2006 Developed by : TML, KUL et al. For : European Commission DG ENV Cost-effectiveness analysis of : EURO 5 standards Car CO2 policy (2012, 2015 objectives) Maritime policies (aftertreatment, ) Plane taxes Mid-term review White Paper DG TREN 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 11
TREMOVE 2.0 244 2.44 Road, rail, inland ship All transport modes Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions Emissions i by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions Updates :e.g. car sale data, COPERT 4 Well-to-tank emissions 11.10.2011 TREMOVE training - Duke University 12
TREMOVE 2.0 244 2.44 Demand, fleet and well-to-wheel wheel emission modelling for all modes 1995-2020 with annual intervals Base case scenario Exogenous demand d based on SCENES Endogenous fleet evolution Simulation scenario Also demand is endogenous, depending on policy 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 13
TREMOVE 2.0 244 2.44 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 14
TREMOVE 2.52 2006 summer 2007 Development : by TML For : European Commission, DG ENV Runs : by Univ. Thessaloniki Cost-effectiveness analysis of : EURO VI standards Eurovignette (internalisation ext. costs) 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 15
TREMOVE 2.52 Restructured (e.g. choice between truck types) Extension to 2030 Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions Emissions i by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions More detailed cost modelling trucks 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 16
TREMOVE 2.52 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 17
TREMOVE 2.7 Released November 2007 Development by TML For : EC FP6 GRACE (coordinator ITS, Leeds) Cost-effectiveness analysis of : Km-charging policies (road and other modes) Can be executed without software licenses 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 18
TREMOVE 2.7 Added : Accidents, noise, infrastructure wear & tear Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions Emissions i by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 19
TREMOVE 3.0 : REFIT EC FP6 REFIT (coordinator : TNO) Preliminary technical link between TREMOVE and TRANSTOOLS TransTools is the new network-based forecasting model of the European Commission, developed by TNO, TRT, Development by TML and TRT TML also developed the EDIP model 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 20
TREMOVE 3.0 : REFIT SCENES base case transport forecast replaced by TRANSTOOLS Link is developed, but not applied in REFIT Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions Emissions i by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 21
TREMOVE 3.1 : Sustainable use of cars For JRC-IPTS TML, Okö-Institut and Fraunhofer ISI New car materials Calculating material flows related to car and replacements parts Linked by JRC to IMPROcar LCA model 4 Policy simulations : Promoting smaller & lighter cars Accelerated scrappage & replacement 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 22
TREMOVE 3.2 : itren EC FP6 itren-2030 (coordinator : ISI) Developing a common 2030 forecast with : TRANSTOOLS POLES : Energy / technology model (JRC- IPTS,TRT) ASTRA : Economy / transport model (Fraunhofer ISI) Automated data exchange with TRANS- TOOLS Extension with new car technologies Hydrogen Electric 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 23
TREMOVE 3.2 : itren Transport performance VKT TRANS- TOOLS v2 Multi-modal trans port network model Vehicle-km travelled (VKT) Passengers-km Tonnes-km Emissions Vehicle fleet structure TREMOVE Environmental impact model and vehicle fleet model Trans port policy Vehicle technology External scenarios Trans port policy TEN - Investments E xternal scenarios AS TR A Integrated economy-trans portenvironment model Economic development E mployment Economic development Energy prices, Trade in primary energy sources, Investments Energy prices POLES World energy model Energy prices Technology paths Transport energy demand, Vehicle fleetstructure Energy policy E nergy technology E xternal scenarios Legend: Model Model purpos e Policy and technology inputs Main model outputs 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 24
TREMOVE 3.3: 3: Update Currently distributed version Data collection projects as input to TREMOVE: FLEETS (road) EX-TREMIS (rail, air, maritime) Scenario development parallel to itren (demand d baseline) 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 25
TREMOVE: future Electric vehicles 2nd hand market Sensitivity checks Update transport emissions social aspects 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 26
Presentation summary TREMOVE What is it? Model history Model structure Different s Model use Examples TREMOVE in GHG TransPoRD 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 27
TREMOVE structure Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions i Emissions by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions 11.10.2011 GHG TransPoRD TREMOVE 28
Transport demand Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions i Emissions by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions 11.10.2011 GHG TransPoRD TREMOVE 29
Transport demand The transport demand describes transport flows and the users decision making process when it comes to making their modal choice. Starting from the baseline level of demand for passenger and freight transport per mode, the describes how the implementation of a policy measure (or a package of measures) will affect the baseline allocation of demand d across different modes and different vehicle categories. The output of the edemand d odueconsists sstsof passenger kilometres (pkm) and ton kilometres (tkm) that are demanded per vehicle category for a given policy environment. 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 30
Transport demand The key assumption here is that the transport users will select the volume of transport and their preferred mode based on the generalized price for each mode. The generalized price is the sum of money price and time costs. To be more specific, the generalized price per pkm or tkm is the sum of three elements: 1. producer price (this is the price producers receive) 2. tax or subsidy 3. time cost per km traveled by a certain mode. 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 31
Vehicle stock Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions i Emissions by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 32
Vehicle stock The vehicle stock describes the evolution of the vehicle stock for the different vehicle types and categories. The output from the transport demand (pkm & tkm per mode) is used as input for the vehicle stock. Output is vehicle-km by vehicle type, age and technology,road type and time period (use of nested tables under the assumption of constant elasticity of substitution) 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 33
Vehicle stock 1. Road vehicles example 2. Rail vehicles 3. Inland ships 4. Planes 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 34
Road vehicle information Road vehicle categories Road vehicle types 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 35
Road vehicle categories MOP : moped MOC : motorcycle Transport demand Vehicle-km CAR : car VAN : van BUS : bus LDT : light duty vehicle HDT1 : heavy duty truck <7.5 ton HDT2 : heavy duty truck 7.5-16 ton HDT3 : heavy duty truck 16-32 ton HDT4 : heavy duty truck >32 ton 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 36
Road vehicle types PCDB : car >2.0l - diesel PCDM : car 1.4-2.0l - diesel PCDS : car <1.4l - diesel PCGB : car >2.0l - petrol PCGM : car 1.4-2.0l - petrol Car PCGS : car <1.4l - petrol PCGB_CNG CNG : car >2.0l - CNG PCGM_CNG : car 1.4-2.0l - CNG PCGS_CNG : car <1.4l - CNG PCL : car - LPG 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 37
Road vehicle types Light duty vehicle LTD : light duty truck - diesel LTG : light duty truck - petrol Heavy duty truck <7.5 ton HTD1 : heavy duty truck 3.5-7.5t diesel Heavy duty truck <7.5 ton HTD2 : heavy duty truck 7.5-16t - diesel Heavy duty truck <7.5 ton HTD3 : heavy duty truck 16-32t - diesel Heavy duty truck <7.5 ton HTD4 : heavy duty truck >32t - diesel 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 38
Road vehicle information Additional information Age distribution Technology distribution Fleet turnover by category (year to year evolution) Car purchase choice (nested function) Fleet turnover by type 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 39
Vehicle-km by type and age Vehicle-km by vehicle category, road type, period (demand ) Fleet by type and age (~technology) Ratio : mileage of aged vehicle vs new Ratio : mileage of vehicle type vs category average Vehicle-km by vehicle type, age and technology by road type and time period 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 40
Other modes information Rail model: similar structure Air mode: no vehicle fleet modelling (demand passenger km by distance class - fuel consumtion and emissions ) Maritime mode: not included/calibrated in TREMOVE 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 41
cost Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions Emissions by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 42
cost The usage cost is used to estimate the generalised price of transport. Based on the usage of vehicles, the structure of the vehicle stock and expected fuel consumption, a generalised price is estimated. For private vehicles, this results in a vehicle related price, network tax est. and time cost. For public transport, this results in ticket t prices and time costs. This output is looped back to the transport demand 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 43
Money price components By type By category By node Detailed calculation by Vehicle type Vehicle vintage Purchase cost Purchase VAT Registration tax Ownership tax Insurance cost Insurance tax i/ i Vehicle-related price Repair/maint. cost Repair/maint. Tax Fuel cost + Fuel tax Fuel VAT Driver labour cost Driver labour tax Network tax + Time cost 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 44
Money price components Public transport modes Input By category By node Tariff (SCENES) Other cost Cost Coverage VAT rate Other tax (subsidy) Other VAT Ticket price + Time Cost 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 45
Fuel consumption and emissions Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions Emissions by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 46
Fuel consumptions and emissions The fuel consumptions and emissions is used to calculate fuel consumption and emissions, based on the structure of the vehicle stock, the number of kilometres driven by each vehicle type and the driving i conditions. Outputs from the vehicle stock and fuel consumption and emissions s are fed back into the demand. As fuel consumption, stock structure and usage influence usage costs, they are important determinants of transport demand and modal split. 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 47
Road vehicles Vehicle-km by vehicle type, age and technology Speed by region and time period Ambient temperature, Fuel Specifications, Energy Consumption & Emission Factors (draft Copert IV) Energy consumption (diesel, petrol, CNG, LPG, ethanol, biodiesel) Emissions (CO2, CO, C6H6, CH4, NOx, N2O, NM-VOC, PM, SO2) Exhaust (hot and cold) & Evaporative 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 48
Rail vehicles Vehicle-km by vehicle type and age by region and time period Energy Consumption & Emission Factors (TRENDS) Energy consumption (electricity, diesel) Exhaust emissions (CO2, CO, CH4, NOx, NM-VOC, PM, SO2) 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 49
Planes Pass.-km by distance class Detour factors Split LTO - Cruise (<> 3000 feet) Energy consumption and emission factors (TRENDS) Energy consumption (kerosene) Exhaust emissions (CO2, CO, C6H6, CH4, NOx, N2O, NM-VOC, PM, SO2) 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 50
Life cycle emissions Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions Emissions by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 51
Life cycle emissions The life cycle emissions enables to calculate emissions during production of fuels and electricity. it It also accounts for the effects of the use of (blended) biofuels. The output is used to calculate a complete welfare cost 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 52
Well-to-tank emissions Energy consumption by fuel type / Electricity WTT emission factors : - ECOinvent (non-ghg fossil fuels) - PRIMES (CO2 electricity) - RAINS (other electricity) - JRC-EUCAR-CONCAWE CONCAWE (GHG all fuels) - MEET (non-ghg biofuels) Well-to-tank emissions to air (CO, CO, CH4, N2O, NMVOC, NOx, PM, SO2) 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 53
Welfare cost Consumer utility, Producer costs & Tax revenues Speed & Load Transport demand Activity by mode Traffic demand Vehicle stock turnover Vkm by type and tech Stock structure Fuel consumption and emissions Emissions by vehicle type External Costs Welfare cost Cost Stock structure Fuel consumption Life cycle emissions 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 54
Welfare cost Welfare effect of a policy measure = + Increase in consumer utility (consumers) Consumer surplus from utility function + Decrease costs of production (producers) Total production cost from production function + Extra tax revenues government (* 1+MCPF) + External Costs Emissions to air (tank-to-wheel) Accidents Noise Infrastructure wear & tear (Congestion - included automatically via generalised prices) 13-14/02/2008 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 55
Presentation summary TREMOVE What is it? Model history Model structure Different s Model use Examples TREMOVE in GHG TransPoRD 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 56
Model use examples Policy support What is the effect of a policy, or a group of policies, ie on transport t demand? On emissions? On the cost of transport? On the use of a specific vehicle type and technology? But it goes further than standard emissions or mobility estimations. TREMOVE can also be used to facilitate the estimation of road safety effects from technology introductions ti and policy decisions 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 57
Model use examples Company research Technology feasibility Fuel consumptions & emissions related estimations Vehicle type and technology introduction pick-up Identification of potential user groups and types. Database linking (data enrichment) 11.10.2011 GHG-TransPoRD - TREMOVE 58
Presentation summary TREMOVE What is it? Model history Model structure Different s Model use Examples TREMOVE in GHG TransPoRD 11.10.2011 GHG transpord TREMOVE 59
Reducing greenhouse-gas emissions of transport t beyond 2020 Linking R&D, transport policies and reduction targets Thank you for your attention Lars Akkermans Transport & Mobility Leuven Lars.Akkermans@tmleuven.be