Celebrating 1 by Brent Haight 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 3 25 2 Recip Engine Orders 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Gas Turbine Orders Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide s Mechanical Drive Order Survey is part two of three surveys designed to provide details on the markets of larger reciprocating engines, steam turbines and gas turbines used in power generation, marine propulsion and mechanical drive applications. Data is divided into three reports in order to provide a more in-depth look at each market segment. The Mechanical Drive Order Survey is devoted to engine orders for mechanical drive applications including pumps, compressors, oil exploration machinery, rail and other industrial applications. The Power Generation Order Survey (published in the May issue) examines reciprocating engines, steam turbines and gas turbines for power generation service. The Marine Propulsion Order Survey (to appear in the July/August issue) examines mechanical drive, auxiliary and diesel-electric marine propulsions systems. 15 1 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Steam Turbine Orders 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 * *Steam turbines were added to the survey in 29. Procedures The Mechanical Drive Order Survey includes prime movers beginning at 5 kw (.5 MW). New orders are broken into reciprocating engine, gas turbine and steam turbine orders. types are simplified to reflect only liquid versus gaseous fuels. Liquid fuel, as reported in this survey, can be any form of diesel oil. It is important to note that the data in this survey does not represent units shipped, but only the total orders received during calendar-year 214. An accompanying table shows the geographic breakdown we provide OEMs, highlighting the specific countries within the reported geographic regions. Every effort is made to ensure that this survey is as complete and comprehensive as possible and would not have the level of detail it contains without the generous contributions of the participating companies. An accompanying
215 Mechanical drive order survey Output Range (MW) Mechanical Drive Reciprocating Engine Orders, January December 214 Number Of Total Engine Output For Each Output Range (MW) 3 to 6 r/min Engine Operating Speed Ranges 72 to 1 r/ min above 1 r/min Diesel Heavy.5 to 1. 2692 1737 2692 2523 4 165 75 84 1 247 93 7 24 158 2 21 1.1 to 2. 162 2415 155 1465 183 8 529 116 48 2 217 17 1 348 3 83 1 28 2.1 to 3.5 354 846 119 235 31 6 47 49 32 144 2 9 31 7 71 9 3.51 to 5. 1 42 1 1 4 2 4 5.1 to 7.5 7 4 7 6 1 6 1 7.51 and above 212 239 49 163 23 55 134 42 66 2 9 3 1 7 27 13 15 Totals 4895 747 49 454 4392 393 79 886 87 212 69 61 125 58 38 41 2436 17 77 Natural Gas Eastern Europe, Central, West, East & South Africa Central America & Caribbean Mechanical Drive Gas Turbine Orders, January December 214 Output Range (MW) Number Of Total Engine Output For Each Output Range (MW) Diesel Heavy Natural Gas Western Europe Eastern Europe, Central, West, East & South Africa Central America & Caribbean 1. to 2. 2.1 to 3.5 3.51 to 5. 5.1 to 7.5 6 34 6 2 4 7.51 to 1. 15 12 15 6 3 3 3 1.1 to 15. 23 282 23 5 3 6 3 6 15.1 to 2. 2.1 to 3. 3 747 2 3 11 7 1 2 3.1 to 6. 73 2433 73 36 25 2 9 1 6.1 to 12. 2 1778 2 2 12.1 to 18. 18.1 and above Totals 167 5394 2 167 49 46 9 3 16 2 32 1 9 Mechanical Drive Steam Turbine Orders, January December 214 Output Range (MW) Number Of Total Engine Output (MW) Condensing Steam Turbine Types Non- Condensing Reheat Extraction Induction Eastern Europe, Central, West, East & South Africa Central America & Caribbean. to 1. 253 77 4 249 1 5 14 31 3 22 12 8 1 26 5 1.1 to 5. 34 66 1 24 2 3 2 1 5 1 2 15 3 5.1 to 1. 1 6 1 1 1.1 to 3. 2 11 2 1 1 1 3.1 to 6. 2 2 2 6.1 to 12. 7 424 7 7 12.1 and Above Totals 299 584 26 273 2 8 19 33 38 27 12 1 1 117 29 5
Country Information For Regions/Regional Codes D>W Annual Market Surveys Andorra Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Iceland Liechtenstein Luxembourg Italy Ireland Malta Netherlands Norway Portugal San Marino Slovenia Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom Eastern Europe, Albania Armenia Azerbaijan Belarus Bosnia and Herzegovina Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Estonia Georgia Hungary Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lithuania Moldova Poland Republic of Macedonia Romania Russia Serbia Slovac Republic Tajikistan Turkmenistan Ukraine Uzbekistan Bahrain Cyprus Egypt Iran Iraq Israel Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey United Arab Emirates Yemen Combined Geographic Totals (All Driver Types) January December 214 table identifies those companies that participated in the 215 survey. It is important to note, some units reported in the 215 Mechanical Drive Order Survey did not have complete information. In some cases OEMs chose not to provide engine output, fuel type or geography for some of their reported orders. Overview 91 Central America & Caribbean Central, West, East & South Africa Eastern Europe, 47 53 73 161 148 28 397 This marks the 1 th year for the Mechanical Drive Order Survey. Year-overyear comparison shows growth in total orders (all reported drivers types) from 213 to 214. This year s survey catalogued 5361 orders (214 data), a 2% growth compared to last year s report (213 data), which recorded 4453 units, ending a two-year decline. The accompanying graphs show the cyclical nature facing the mechanical drive applications reporting into this survey. This will prove to be a pivotal year as low 648 878 5 1 15 2 25 3 2585 oil prices, economic challenges in China and political unrest in major oil and gas producing countries continues. Effects of these challenges began to take their toll in the fourth quarter of 214, with oil and gas majors announcing deep cuts in order to preserve the unprecedented profits they ve enjoyed for so long. Cutbacks have continued into 215, but there is good news amongst the doom and gloom headlines that dominate media outlets worldwide. The demand for rail is resilient, showing continued growth in 214 despite low economic growth in several countries. Analysts expect year-over-year growth of 2.7% until 22. The 214 UNIFE World Rail Market Study shows regional markets with the highest growth rates over the next six years are Latin America, Asia/ Pacific and NAFTA ( Free Trade Act) countries. Growth is driven by major investments in rail projects in Brazil, Colombia, China
and the U.S. The Africa/ region is also expected to maintain its current high market level. Good news for OEMs operating within the rail traction sector. The long-term outlook for LNG demand remains strong and is expected to increase by 4% through 225 (to roughly 35 million T/yr), according to data from GDF Suez. Driving that growth are new markets in China, India and and the race is on as myriad countries work to bring export facilities online to supply that demand. The first LNG export terminal in the U.S., Cheniere Energy Inc. s Sabine Pass, is currently under construction, with initial LNG cargoes expected by late 215. Ground has been broken on a second U.S. Gulf Coast terminal, Sempra Energy s Cameron LNG project, with two further projects approved by U.S. regulators for non-free trade exports, and numerous more under review. Eastern Canada has four projects proposed for New Brunswick and Nova Scotia that would take an estimated 1.5 Tcf/yr of gas, liquefy it and ship it abroad. 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 215 Mechanical drive order survey faces competition from countries including Australia, Indonesia and Qatar for natural gas exports. The global push to liquefy surplus natural gas will ultimately bode well for prime mover OEMs operating within the oil and gas sector. Reciprocating Engines The number of reciprocating engines ordered in 214 total 4895 units, a 21% increase compared to last year s survey. The majority of orders were divided between the output ranges of.5 to 1 MW (2692 units) and 1.1 to 2. MW (162 units). Engine operating speeds above 1 r/min accounted for 9% of the recip orders reported in the survey. Diesel fuel once again dominated the fuel type, accounting for 8% of the reported orders. once again claimed Combined Unit Orders, All Driver Types 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 continued on page 3 Country Information For Regions/Regional Codes D>W Annual Market Surveys China Hong Kong Japan Mongolia North Korea South Korea Taiwan Australia Brunei Burma Cambodia Fiji Islands Indonesia Kiribati Laos Malaysia Marshall Islands Micronesia Palau Papua New Guinea Philippines Samoa Singapore Solomon Islands Tahiti Tonga Thailand Tuvalu Vanuatu Vietnam Afghanistan Bangladesh India Maldives Islands Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Algeria Libya Morocco Tunisia Central, West, East & South Africa Angola Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cameroon Cape Verde Cen. African Rep. Chad Comoros Congo Cote d Ivoire Djibouti Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Gabon
Country Information For Regions/Regional Codes D>W Annual Market Surveys 215 Mechanical drive order survey Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea Bissau Ivory Coast Kenya Lesotho Liberia Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mauritius Mozambique Namibia Niger Nigeria Rwanda Senegal Seychelles Sierra Leone Somalia South Africa Sudan Swaziland Tanzania Togo Uganda Zaire Zambia Zimbabwe Canada U.S.A. Central America & Caribbean Bahamas Bermuda Belize Costa Rica Cuba Dominica Domin. Republic El Salvador Guatemala Haiti Honduras Jamaica Mexico Nicaragua Panama Puerto Rico Virgin Islands West Indies Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Guyana Paraguay Peru Surinam Uruguay Venezuela the top geographic destination for reciprocating engines in 214 (5%). s shale development and infrastructure remains unrivaled, keeping it the top geographic destination for mechanical drive reciprocating engines for the foreseeable future. was the second geographic destination for recip engines within the mechanical drive segment, receiving 18% of 214 orders. The Far East was next at 12%. Gas Turbines Gas turbine orders decreased 19% compared to the 214 Mechanical Drive Order Survey. Total orders reported in this survey equaled 167. with the output range of 3.1 to 6. MW received the most orders (44%), followed by units rated 2.1 to 3. MW (18%). Eastern Europe, Russia and CIS was once again the top geographic location for gas turbines in mechanical drive applications, receiving 29% of the orders. The claimed the number two geographic location, accounting for 27% of the orders reported, followed by (2%). Steam Turbines Steam turbine orders rose 39% compared to last year s surveys. Total steam turbine units ordered in 214 was 299, falling mostly within the. to 1. MW output range (85%). Noncondensing steam turbines saw the most demand, accounting for 91% of the total steam turbines ordered. claimed the top geographic location with 39% of the total units ordered. accounted for 13%, followed by the at 11%. Reciprocating Engine Manufacturers Participating And Reporting In This Mechanical Drive Order Survey Caterpillar Inc. GE Power & Water Rolls-Royce Power Systems Wärtsilä Steam Turbine Manufacturers Participating And Reporting Orders In This Mechanical Drive Order Survey Dresser-Rand Fincantieri S.p.A. MAN Diesel & Turbo SE Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd. Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems Ltd. Gas Turbine Manufacturers Participating And Reporting In This Mechanical Drive Order Survey Dresser-Rand GE Oil & Gas GE Power & Water MAN Diesel & Turbo Mitsubishi Hitachi Power Systems Ltd. Siemens AG Vericor Power Systems Annual Surveys On behalf of Diesel & Gas Turbine Worldwide, thank you to all contributors for your continued participation in this annual survey process. It is our hope that the three surveys combined will provide an accurate snapshot of the entire large engine landscape, with fine-tuned detail provided for three market segments through each individual report power generation, mechanical drive and marine propulsion. Electronic versions of past surveys are available at our website: www.dieselgasturbine.com. Questions, comments and suggestions should be directed to bhaight@dieselpub.com. A