Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing Second quarter 2016 automotive market share trends and registrations Brad Smith Director, Automotive Market Statistics Marty Miller Senior Product Manager, VIO Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian.
Today s presentation Part one Marty Miller Senior Product Manager, VIO What s on the Road VIO by model year, segment, age and market share U.S. light duty vehicles through June 30, 2016 U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles through June 30, 2016 Presentation will be available 24-48 hours after Webinar Email with a link will be sent to all registrants to download Questions? Contact us at Auto@experian.com 2
Session overview Part two Q2 2016 Registrations Market trends Geographic performance Manufacturer, make and model share Loyalty, conquest and defection Brad Smith Director, Automotive Market Statistics 3
U.S. Total Vehicles in Operation = 281.9M *Q2 2016 now includes Puerto Rico Light Duty Passenger Cars, Light Trucks, Vans Cars and GVW Class 1-3 Medium & Heavy Duty Large Vans, Delivery Trucks, Buses, RVs, Cement Trucks, Semi-Tractors GVW Class 4-8 Power Sports Motorcycles, All-Terrain, Utility Task, Snowmobiles 4
Vehicles in Operation What s on the road today? Light duty vehicles 5
U.S. Vehicles In Operation Q2 2015 255.6 million Vehicles on the road 17.3 * NEW VEHICLES 41.3 * USED VEHICLES EXIT 8.8 * Out of Operation 196.7 * NO CHANGES Q2 2016 264.1 million Vehicles on the road DEALER Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) *In millions; Q2 2015 excludes Puerto Rico 6
VIO change by model year (in millions) Q2 2015 to Q2 2016 New Sales 17.3M Out of Operation 8.8M Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 7
The aftermarket Sweet Spot overview Post and Pre Sweet Spot defined The aftermarket Sweet Spot is defined as 6 to 12 model year old vehicles, and because of their age, are out of the general OEM manufacturer warranty for any repairs. These vehicles are within a time period when more part replacement or services are needed (e.g. shocks, timing belt service, engine repairs) that may be performed by aftermarket service shops which are supplied by aftermarket part manufacturers and retailers. Defining the Sweet Spot size helps identify the overall market potential, and changes can have implications to those that service it. Post Sweet Spot vehicles are defined as 13 model years old or older, and identify the models where less costs may be spent to service them due to their age and vehicle value. Pre Sweet Spot vehicles are defined as 5 model years old or newer, and identify the incoming models into the Sweet Spot. 8
Trend of total VIO compared to sweet spot volumes VIO by model year (in millions) 86.3M vehicles within Sweet Spot (MY2005 2011) Pre-Sweet Spot Post-Sweet Spot Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 9
Sweet Spot changing Vehicle manufacturer market share age groups Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 10
VIO by manufacturer market share Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 11
VIO Top 20 segments on the road market share Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 12
Vehicle type average age Average vehicle age (1967 to current MYs of period) and Rolling average vehicle age (first 20 MYs of period) Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 13
VIO Vocation How light duty commercial vehicles are used Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 14
VIO Vocation Top makes and models Light duty vehicles as of Q2 2016 (excludes rental / leasing / dealers) Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 15
Vehicles in Operation What s on the road today? Medium and heavy duty vehicles 16
What s on the road today? VIO by model year Medium and heavy duty vehicles Vehicles in operation Q2 2016 7.0 million 68.4% of VIO MY2001+ 31.2% of VIO MY2010+ 84.8% of VIO MY1996+ Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only) 17
Total average age Average age by top brand names Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only) 18
Top 10 VIO Market share of Vocation Medium and heavy duty vehicles Source: Experian Automotive as of June 30, 2016 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only) 19
U.S. Market Overview What products are selling? Who s buying? Where is it happening? 20
New Registration Volume (Millions) For the first time since the recession, year over year quarterly volumes decline, down 2.3% from Q2 2015 5.0 M New passenger car / light truck registrations through June 2016 4.5 M 4.4 M 4.5 M 4.3 M 4.5 M 4.4 M 4.0 M 3.8 M 3.7 M 4.0 M 3.5 M 3.0 M 3.0 M 3.2 M 2.5 M 2.5 M 2.0 M 1.5 M 1.0 M 0.5 M 0.0 M 21
Retail market is down 3.9% from Q2 2015 with increases in fleet sales providing a cushion to softening consumer demand Q2 15 vs. Q2 16 Total new vehicle registrations through June 2016 Retail -3.9% Rental/Lease -3.7% Other 18.8% Government 30.5% Dealer Manufacturer 58.2% Commercial/Taxi 6.9% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 55% % Change from Q2 2015 22
10 states accounted for nearly 60% of retail registrations in the first quarter of 2016 New vehicle registrations Individual buyers Q2 2016 Source: Experian Automotive registrations Q2 2016 23
Most states experienced declines in new vehicle registration as compared to Q2 2015 New vehicle registrations Individual buyers Q2 2015 vs. Q2 2016 Source: Experian Automotive registrations Q2 2016 24
Los Angeles and Detroit were the only two DMAs in the top 15 to experience year over year increases in registration volume LOS ANGELES PHILADELPHIA DALLAS-FT. WORTH BOSTON (MANCHESTER) SAN FRANCISCO-OAK-SAN JOSE WASHINGTON, DC (HAGRSTWN) MIAMI-FT. LAUDERDALE TAMPA-ST. PETE (SARASOTA) PHOENIX (PRESCOTT) CLEVELAND-AKRON (CANTON) Market Share by Nielsen DMA NEW YORK CHICAGO DETROIT HOUSTON ATLANTA 1.76% 1.70% 1.50% 2.27% 2.22% 1.93% 2.78% 2.68% 2.65% 2.44% 2.39% 2.39% 2.83% 7.01% New vehicle registrations Individual buyers Q2 2016 7.72% DMA is a registered service mark of The Nielsen Company. Used under license. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: Experian Automotive registrations through Q1 2016 25
Led by Entry CUV, 10 vehicle segments accounted for approximately 80% of new individual registrations in Q2 2016 Top 15 Vehicle Segments Individual new vehicle registrations Q2 2016 CUV - Entry Level Pickup - Full Sized Small Car - Economy Mid Range Car - Standard Mid Range Car - Lower CUV - Mid Range CUV - Premium SUV - Lower Mid Range SUV - Entry Level Upscale - Near Luxury Van - Mini Pickup - Small Sport Car - Touring Small Car - Budget Mid Range Car - Premium 3.2% 3.2% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.3% 5.9% 5.5% 6.6% 8.2% 9.6% 10.1% 11.4% 16.1% 26
CUVs and SUV led in year over year growth, while luxury, premium and hybrid segments declined from compared to Q2 2015 Q2 2016 % Change from Q2 2015 Individual new vehicle registrations through June 2016 Minimum 5,000 registrations CUV - Premium 26.7% Pickup - Small 14.1% SUV - Large Small Car - Budget CUV - Entry Level 6.0% 4.7% 7.8% SUV - Premium Large Upscale - Luxury Sport Car - Upper Premium Upscale - Ultra Alt Power - Hybrid Car -18.5% -18.9% -20.0% -20.5% -24.8% 27
General Motors outsold Toyota by 15k units to lead Q2 2016 market share Top 15 Manufacturers (Q1 2016) Individual new vehicle registrations Q2 2016 GM Toyota FCA US LLC Ford Honda Nissan Hyundai Kia Subaru VW BMW Daimler Mazda Mitsubishi Tata 0.62% 0.58% 4.11% 4.01% 3.87% 3.36% 2.25% 2.11% 2.02% 8.24% 12.00% 11.92% 11.88% 16.20% 15.77% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Share of Individual Registrations 28
Toyota outsold Ford by over 62k units to lead Q2 2016 brand market share Top 15 Makes (Q1 2016) Individual new vehicle registrations Q2 2016 Toyota Ford Chevrolet Honda Nissan Jeep Hyundai Kia Subaru GMC Ram Dodge Mercedes-Benz Lexus Mazda 4.11% 4.01% 3.87% 3.13% 2.50% 2.31% 2.08% 2.06% 2.02% 5.69% 7.49% 10.85% 10.79% 11.30% 13.14% Share of Individual Registrations 29
With year over year sales up over 20%, Ford F150 led all models in market share Top 15 Models Individual new vehicle registrations Q2 2016 Ford F150 Honda Civic Honda Accord Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Honda CR-V Toyota RAV4 Toyota Corolla Toyota Camry Ford Escape Nissan Rogue Ram 1500 Jeep Wrangler Nissan Altima Toyota Tacoma Chevrolet Equinox 1.82% 1.79% 1.63% 1.54% 1.48% 1.37% 1.31% 2.55% 2.55% 2.42% 2.41% 2.26% 2.25% 2.87% 2.84% Share of New Individual Registrations 30
Loyalty, Conquest & Defection Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian.
Overview of Loyalty Methodologies Household Consistent view of activity across all buyers Captures additions to household fleets Looks for loyalty first and foremost Census coverage, findings applicable to dealers of all sizes Most timely loyalty metric available Requires an owned vehicle to be registered to another owner Creates additional lag in reporting Registration must occur within 90 days of new vehicle purchase Disposal Some off lease used vehicles missed due to turn time Does not capture additions to household fleet Smaller population, finding not applicable to small dealers 32
Loyalty Rate As vehicle sales decline, loyalty rates dip 80% 70% Household Loyalty Trends Manufacturer Make Model Lender Household Methodology New to New Through May 2016 68.60% 60% 50% 61.40% 40% 30% 28.80% 20% 23.90% 10% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 33
New buyers are the most loyal to their brands, followed buy Certified Used and Non-Certified Used 80% New Certified Used Non-Certified Used Household Methodology June 2015 May 2016 70% 60% 67.1% 61.4% 59.9% 50% 54.3% 54.0% 40% 42.6% 30% 20% 27.6% 21.1% 22.5% 10% 13.3% 15.4% 0% Manufacturer Make Model Lender 3.9% 34
General Motors edged Ford to lead all manufacturers in repurchase loyalty Minimum 5,000 RTM GM Ford Subaru Toyota FCA US LLC Daimler Honda Kia Nissan Hyundai BMW VW Porsche Tata Mazda Manufacturer Loyalty Rates 71.9% 71.8% 69.6% 69.0% 68.6% 65.7% 65.2% 64.1% 63.4% 61.5% 61.1% 57.4% 56.8% 54.0% 48.3% Household Methodology New to New June 2015 May 2016 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Manufacturer Loyalty Rate (Household) 35
Ford led all brands with 70.8% of returning owners buying another Ford vehicle Minimum 5,000 RTM Ford Subaru Chevrolet Mercedes-Benz Toyota Kia Honda Nissan Lincoln Ram Lexus Hyundai BMW Cadillac Porsche Make Loyalty Rates (Top 15) Household Methodology New to New June 2015 May 2016 70.8% 69.6% 65.8% 65.8% 65.0% 64.1% 63.3% 62.8% 62.3% 61.8% 61.6% 61.5% 61.1% 57.0% 56.8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Make Loyalty Rate (Household) 36
Ram 1500 led all models with a 50.3% model loyalty rate Minimum 5,000 RTM Ram 1500 Ford F150 Lincoln MKZ Land Rover Range Rover Lincoln MKX Subaru Outback Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Chrysler Town & Country Cadillac SRX Kia Soul Subaru Forester Ram 3500 Hyundai Genesis Acura RDX Cadillac Escalade Model Loyalty Rates (Top 15) Household Methodology New to New June 2015 May 2016 50.30% 46.70% 46.30% 44.60% 44.30% 43.70% 43.20% 43.20% 42.60% 42.20% 42.10% 41.10% 41.00% 40.80% 40.40% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Model Loyalty Rates (Household) 37
Conquest / Defection Metrics When loyalty does not exist a conquest / defection relationship is present Conquest is assessed against the purchased vehicle / vehicle attribute Defection is assessed against the owned vehicle / vehicle attribute Conquest / defection ratio is the number of conquests divided by the number of defections Conquest / defection net is the number of conquests less the number of defections 38
For every customer lost, Subaru gains nearly 3.5 new customers from other brands Minimum 5,000 RTM Subaru Kia Daimler BMW Mazda VW FCA US LLC Volvo Hyundai Nissan Honda Mitsubishi Ford Toyota GM Manufacturer Conquest / Defection Ratio 1.70 1.49 1.43 1.43 1.23 1.16 1.13 1.10 1.03 0.84 0.78 0.78 0.74 0.64 Household Methodology New to New June 2015 May 2016 3.48 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 39
Small and mid-size brands are gaining owners while the larger, more established brands struggle to maintain their owner base Minimum 5,000 RTM Top brands based on RTM Subaru Jeep Kia Mercedes-Benz BMW Lexus GMC Hyundai Nissan Volkswagen Honda Ford Toyota Chevrolet Dodge 0.4 Make Conquest / Defection Ratio 1.81 1.7 1.51 1.44 1.22 1.16 1.1 1 0.88 0.84 0.8 0.69 0.67 Household Methodology New to New June 2015 May 2016 3.48 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 40
Import utility vehicles gain more new owners as sedans fall out of favor among new buyers Minimum 5,000 RTM Top models based on RTM Toyota RAV4 Honda CR-V Toyota Tacoma Honda CR-V Toyota RAV4 Ford F150 Hyundai Sonata Ford Fusion Ford Escape Ford Explorer Chevrolet Equinox Honda Civic Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Honda Accord Nissan Altima Toyota Corolla Toyota Camry Model Conquest / Defection Ratio 0.48 0.61 0.71 0.68 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.88 0.92 0.99 0.96 1.14 1.13 1.11 1.15 1.50 Household Methodology New to New June 2015 May 2016 1.78 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 41
Full Size Truck Market Analysis Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian.
Full Size Pickup Competitive Share Total share among models listed = 100% Individual new vehicle registrations through June 2016 45% Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Ford F150 GMC Sierra 1500 Ram 1500 Toyota Tundra 40% 35% 30% 32.6% 28.9% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 18.5% 11.0% 9.0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 43
Full Size Pickup Model Loyalty Model Loyalty Trend 60% Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Ford F150 GMC Sierra 1500 Ram 1500 Toyota Tundra 52.30% 50% 40% 49.80% 44.00% 42.10% 30% 33.80% 20% 10% 0% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 44
Full Size Pickup Conquest and Defection Metrics Model level metrics Ram 1500 excludes Dodge Ram Conquest / Defection Net Conquest / Defection Ratio Household Methodology New to New June 2015 May 2016 60,000 2.5 50,000 50,183 2.2 40,000 2.0 30,000 1.5 20,000 1.2 10,000 8,962 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0 491 0.5-10,000-6,006-8,054-20,000 Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Ford F150 GMC Sierra 1500 Ram 1500 Toyota Tundra 0.0 Chevrolet Ford F150 Silverado 1500 GMC Sierra 1500 Ram 1500 Toyota Tundra 45
Summary of Todays Presentation U.S. vehicles in operation have increased to 264.1 million units 86.3 million vehicles fall into the aftermarket sweet spot Nearly one-quarter of passenger cars / light trucks on the road were manufactured by General Motors New registration volumes fell in Q2 for the first time since the recession Softening retail market is being offset with increases in fleet sales Retail registration volumes were down as compared to Q2 2015 in all by 9 U.S. states Entry level CUV remained popular with consumers controlling just over 16% of the market General Motors outsold Toyota by 15k units to lead manufacturer market share Toyota outsold Ford to lead all brands General Motors led in manufacturer loyalty Ford was tops in brand loyalty Ram 1500 had highest model to model loyalty rate 46
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