La Lettre du A retenir au 4 ème trimestre 2012 The long-term rental market 4th Quarter 2014 In collaboration with The long-term rental market (*) 4th quarter 2014 1. The automotive market 2. The corporate market 3. Macroeconomic context 4. The LTR market 5. LTR figures Figures for 4 th quarter 2014 455,485 New passenger car registrations 2014/2013: -4.5% 100,855 New commercial vehicle registrations (<5t.) 2014/2013: +0.5% 189,723 (estimation) Company(1) PC+ CV registrations 2014/2013: +1.6% 117,266 New long-term rentals put on the road 2014/2013: +14.4 % Share of new long-term rentals put on the road in total company PC + CV registrations: 62% (1) excluding short-term (1) excluding short-term rentals, demonstration vehicles, self-registrations The automotive market The situation worsened in the 4 th quarter of 2014, and the Light Vehicle market (PC+LCV) accounted for 556,000 registrations, a fall of -3.6% over Q4 2013. This slowdown in the French automotive market followed four consecutive quarters of rising figures. The end of the year was particularly difficult for the PC market, which reached 455,000 registrations, falling -4.5% compared to Q4 2013. The LCV market ended the quarter slightly up at 101,000 units (up +0.5% on Q3 2013). Year to date, the French automotive market has shown a slight rise of +0.9% (12M 2014/12M 2013). This recovery is due both to the PC market growing by 0.8% over 2014, and the LCV market, up by +1.3% during the same period. In the 4 th quarter of 2014, the electric vehicle market (PC+LCV) recorded growth of +32% compared to Q4 2013, while registrations of hybrids fell by -22% at the same time. Year to date, the electric vehicle market has risen by +7%, while hybrids fell by -12%. In addition, in 2015 electric vehicles will benefit from the same bonus conditions as in 2014, while they will be reduced for hybrids. Q4, 2013 figures are shown in brackets Households 53% (58%) New PC registrations in the 4 th quarter of 2014, as % of the total Short-term rental 7% (6%) Long-term rental + company registrations 23% (22%) Exhibit + Car makers 15% (15%) Of wich, Long-term rental : 18% (*) Analysis of the responses of the TOP 13 which represent 91% of the Répartition long-term rental Sources: SNLVLD, CCFA, data processed by BIPE Source : BIPE d'après CCFA Founded in 1978, the Syndicat National des Loueurs de Voitures en Longue Durée (SNLVLD) represents commercial companies that engage in the long-term rental ofvehicles in France. SNLVLD s members represent 97% of the sector s activity in France. The long-term rental of vehicles (passenger cars and commercial vehicles) has established its legitimacy in the corporate sector, since it provides a flexible solution to the organisational and management needs of companies. It provides significant support to the automotive industry La lettre du SNLVLD 4 th quarter 2014 1
New long-term out on the road (PC) Corporate registrations Short term rental PC registrations Exhibit+Car makers Non-households PC registrations The corporate market The corporate market s recovery was confirmed in 2014, although to a lower level than 2012 The pace of growth of the non-household (or corporate) LV market was slower in the 4 th quarter than in the previous one, with an estimated rise of +1.4% (compared to Q4 2013) and almost 298,000 vehicles registered. This total is based on an estimate of the figures for the non-household LCV market, not yet published. Over the year 2014, the corporate LV market should therefore be up by +3.2% with 1,168,000 registrations. The non-household PC market continued to grow in Q4 2014, although at a faster pace: +1.9 % year on year (Q4 2014/ Q4 2013) and 204,000 vehicles registered. This meant a 6 th consecutive positive quarter. The growth of the corporate fleet market (own purchases + LTR) was also slightly less impressive, with only +2.4% in Q4 2014 compared to Q4 2013 (106,000 vehicles). This growth rate remains slightly higher than that of the nonhousehold PC market. If we consider the growth for the year 2014, the corporate fleet market proved to be dynamic, with 388,000 PC registrations, and a rise of 6.3% compared to the 2013 total. The growth of the PC short-term rental market was particularly high in the 4 th quarter of 2014, with 30,000 registrations, i.e. +8.5% growth (compared to Q4 2013). The recovery definitely reasserted itself during 2014, albeit at a lower level than 2012, with 174,000 registrations, i.e. +7.2% compared to Q4 2013. The situation of the pre-registered PC market and Manufacturers was much more channeled, with the latter recording a -1.5% decline in Q4 2014 compared to Q3 2014, for a total of 69,000 units. Retail estimates for the 4 th quarter (confirmed figures for each channel are not yet available) suggest a non-household total of approximately 94,000 registrations and a rise of +0.5% in Q4 2014 (vs Q3 2013). The corporate fleet channel should see a similar growth rate in Q4 2014 and achieve 84,000 registrations (+0.5% year on year). Over the year, the influence of the corporate fleet channel should be reduced: 80.7% of total LCV market registrations in 2014, against 82.0% in 2013. 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% 5,7% Contributions to growth of the non-household PC market in Q4 2014, as % -4,5% 1,2% -0,5% 1,9% Note on interpretation of the contributions graph: Contributions to growth highlight the weight of the growth of various company vehicle ( non-household ) registration channels in the growth of the corporate vehicle market. The dynamics of each channel are then weighted by the market share of the channel. Thus, the +1.9% growth in corporate registrations in Q3 2014, on a year-onyear basis, is the sum of the contributions associated with the various channels: 1.9 = 5.7 4.5 + 1.2 0.5 La lettre du SNLVLD 4th quarter 2014 2
Macroeconomic context The French economy: very modest growth in the fourth quarter After a rise in Q3 2014 (0.3% quarter on quarter) that was higher than expected, activity in France appears to have been less dynamic in the 4 th quarter. In November, industrial production had fallen by - 1.3% over one year. The decline in the manufacturing PMI in December, largely due to the drop in new orders, suggests that the downturn in industrial activity is continuing. Corporate investment is expected to fall in 2014, compromised by the scaling back of the companies investment in construction and the underuse of production capacities, generating insufficient productive investment to compensate. Likewise, household consumption has slowed down, mainly due to the fall in spending on cars and energy caused by a very mild autumn. The stabilisation in household investment in building permits is an indication of a continued downturn in the fourth quarter. In total, after a contraction of -3.1% in 2013, the fall in household investment could exceed -6% in 2014. However, we can see that there has been an improvement in household confidence in December and a recovery in energy expenditure. Furthermore, low inflation encouraged household consumption in 2014. With regard to short-term prospects, global activity should improve in 2015. Continued low inflation and a growth in income will lead to consumption remaining the principal growth factor in 2015. In corporate terms, company investment should stabilise in 2015 due to the influence of more favourable internal and external demand and an improved financial situation. The fall in raw material costs, the depreciation of the Euro and the accountability pact measures will benefit their margins, which will stop decreasing. The business climate in France improved in November, coming close to its long-term average. With the support of these various favourable factors, activity should gradually improve in 2015. GDP should increase by 0.4% in 2014 and 0.8% in 2015. Opinions 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-10 -20-30 Source : Banque de France Tightening Easing nov.-07 mai-08 nov.-08 mai-09 nov.-09 mai-10 nov.-10 mai-11 nov.-11 mai-12 nov.-12 mai-13 nov.-13 mai-14 nov.-14 janv.-08 mai-08 sept.-08 janv.-09 mai-09 sept.-09 janv.-10 mai-10 sept.-10 janv.-11 mai-11 sept.-11 janv.-12 mai-12 sept.-12 janv.-13 mai-13 sept.-13 janv.-14 mai-14 sept.-14 Changes in order books in manufacturing industry (CVS) Change in corporate lending conditions of banks (survey conducted among banks) Opinions 10 0-10 -20-30 -40-50 -60-70 Source : INSEE Members AGL Services, ALD Automotive, Alphabet, Arval, Athlon, Billar Sarrebourg, CA Consumer Finance, CM-CIC bail, Crédipar, CGFF, Cofiparc, Public LLD, DIAC Location, Elat, FAL Fleet, Ford Lease, GE Capital Fleet Services, Leaseplan, Locauto, Mercedes Benz Financial Services, Natixis Car Lease, Parcours, Salva Location, Uca Lease, UCA fleet, Véhiposte, Volkswagen Bank, 2R fleet services. Associate members La lettre du SNLVLD 4 th quarter 2014 3
The long-term rental market The LTR market s dynamic recovery is confirmed In the 4 th quarter of 2014, the number of light vehicles (PC + LCV) put on the road once again began to rise significantly: +14.4% compared to Q4 2013, i.e. 117,266 vehicles registered by the long-term renters of the SNLVLD. This level of deliveries, not seen since the end of 2011, confirms that 2014 will have been a year of recovery. The importance of long-term renters in the corporate fleet market is greater than it was last year: their LV registrations represent almost 61.8% of all LV fleet registrations (companies + LTR) in Q4 2014, against 57.4% in Q4 2013. Over the year, long-term rental represents 62% of corporate fleet registrations. The number of Private Cars put on the road continue to rise, with +16.3% growth in Q4 2014 (vs Q4 2013), corresponding to a total of 81,892 registrations. The number of LCV put on the road continues to increase, with a year-on-year rise of +9.2% in Q4 2014, i.e. 33,223 vehicles registered in this quarter. Returns are down for the 2 nd consecutive quarter, with 113,757 vehicles returned during the 4 th quarter of 2014, i.e. +6.9% compared to Q4 2013. Over the last twelve months, 385,065 vehicles were therefore withdrawn from the LTR fleet (+1.5% compared to 2013). This could be taken as confirmation of the trend to extend the duration of LTR contracts favoured by the companies in an unhealthy business climate. These combined changes in the number of cars put on the road and returned has resulted in the continued growth of the LTR fleet, which reached 1,211,635 vehicles (PC+CV+SV) in the 4 th quarter of 2014: i.e. +0.3% compared to Q3 2014 and +3.0% compared to Q4 2013. In addition, the Fleet management solutions are progressing well. In Q4 2014, the Fleet management figures showed a further increase (+8.6% compared to Q4 2013) with 287,997 units and +2.5% compared to Q3 2014. Fluctuations in long-term rental stocks Unités 1 250 000 1 200 000 1 150 000 1 100 000 1 050 000 1 000 000 950 000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Fluctuations in fleet management stocks Unités 300 000 275 000 250 000 225 000 200 000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Fluctuations in new long-term rentals put on the road Unités 130 000 120 000 110 000 100 000 90 000 80 000 70 000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 La lettre du SNLVLD 4th quarter 2014 4
Long-term rental data New registrations Number of units % versus stock Change versus the same period the previous year On 31.12.13 102,510 8.7% -4.4% On 31.03.14 97,003 8.2% 4.9% On 30.06.14 108,035 9.0% 1.5% On 30.09.14 105,383 (p) 8.7% 14.4% On 30.12.14 117,266 (p) 9.7% 14.4% Long-term rental stocks Number of units Change over the quarter Change since the start of the current year Change over the last 12 months On 31.12.13 1,176,280-0.2% 1.3% 1.3% On 31.03.14 1,173,211-0.3% -0.3% 1.8% On 30.06.14 1,196,673 +2.0% +1.7% 2.2% On 30.09.14 1,208,126 (p) +1.0% +2.7% +2.5% On 30.12.14 1,211,635 (p) +0.3% +3.0% +3.0% Number of units Fleet Management stocks Change over the quarter Change since the start of the current year (Q4 2014/Q4 2013) Change over the last twelve months (Q4 2014/Q4 2013) On 31.12.13 265,124 0.9% 3.4% 3.4% On 31.03.14 268,733 1.4% 1.4% 4.6% On 30.06.14 279,923 4.2% 5.6% 7.5% On 30.09.14 280,862 (p) 0.3% 5.9% 6.9% On 30.12.14 287,997 (p) 2.5% 8.6% 8.6% PC-CV Registrations automobile market (CCFA) New long-term rentals put on the road PC+CV Electric 4,999 1,572 Hybrid Petrol 10,372 (petrol+diesel) Alternative fuel vehicles in Q4 2014 851 Hybrid Diesel 841 11 of the biggest companies in the TOP 13 answered this question. Renters registered 31% of electric vehicles (almost twice as many as Q3 2014) and 16% of hybrid vehicles in the LV market (+3 points compared to Q3 2014). La lettre du SNLVLD 4 th quarter 2014 5
Long-term rental data Total stock managed Top 13 as at 30.12.14 Long-term rentals (p) Fleet Management (p) Total (p) ALD 199,190 139,949 339,139 DIAC 193,108 88,259 281,367 CREDIPAR 210,035 25,752 235,787 ARVAL 210,972 8,149 219,121 LEASEPLAN 87,368 737 88,105 ALPHABET 76,757-76,757 GE CAPITAL FLEET SERVICES 57,207 5,605 62,812 VOLKSWAGEN GROUP FLEET SOLUTIONS 56,668 831 57,499 PARCOURS 56,500 56,500 FAL 20,305 13,217 33,522 ATHLON 17,770 4,552 22,322 NATIXIS CAR LEASE 15,657 946 16,603 CMCIC 10 098 10,098 VEHIPOSTE (1) 53 755-53,755 FORD LEASE (1) 17,123 365 17,488 Total 1,211,635 287,997 1,499,632 (1) Data already recorded in the TOP 13 companies Vehicles put on the road Top 10 for Q4 2014 Q4 2014 Q3 2014 1 RENAULT CLIO RENAULT CLIO 2 PEUGEOT 208 PEUGEOT 208 3 PEUGEOT 308 CITROËN C3 4 CITROËN C3 CITROËN C4 + PICASSO 5 CITROËN C4 + PICASSO RENAULT KANGOO 6 RENAULT KANGOO RENAULT SCENIC + GD 7 RENAULT MEGANE RENAULT MEGANE 8 CITROEN BERLINGO RENAULT TWINGO 9 RENAULT SCENIC + GD VOLKSWAGEN GOLF 10 VOLKSWAGEN GOLF RENAULT MASTER Associate Members Carglass, Vega Systems. La lettre du SNLVLD 4th quarter 2014 6