Adding value to IRENA s REmap 2030 project using a European Electricity Model Seán Collins, Deger Saygin, Paul Deane, Dolf Gielen, Brian Ó Gallachóir Joint Research Centre Petten 11 th October 2016
Agenda Overview Data and Methodology 9 REmap and 19 Non-REmap countries Soft-linked methodology Results
Overview Adds value and tests power sector results from REmap 2030 for electricity sector Done using a dedicated power system model (PLEXOS). Model simulates the operation of the EU power system at high temporal and technical resolution for a target year.
Objectives Test using a soft-linking methodology how plausible the REmap results are for the European power sector Added value of this analysis at a country level of: Renewable curtailment Pricing Flexibility of the power system to absorb variable renewables Congestion on interconnector lines Impact of EVs and DSM
REmap 2030 Pathways for doubling the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix based on the national plans + Around 70% of EU final electricity demand Developed through close IRENA-country cooperation Reference Case (government plans, e.g. NREAP of EU countries etc.) is similar to PRIMES REF REmap (realistic potential of RE beyond the Reference Case, estimated through country consultation) +IRENA (2016) REmap: Roadmap for A Renewable Energy Future. IRENA (2015) Renewable energy prospects: Germany, REmap 2030 analysis. IRENA (2015) Renewable energy prospects: Poland, REmap 2030 analysis.
Methodology -Detailed analysis of results using soft-linking techniques + -High temporal resolution (1 hr) -High technical detail -Ramping costs, flexibility metrics EU 28 Model- 3,000 generators, 22 PHES Units, 62 IC Lines + Deane, J.P., Chiodi, A., Gargiulo, M., Ó Gallachóir, B.P., 2012. Soft-linking of a power systems model to an energy systems model. Energy 42, 303 312. Deane, J., Gracceva, F., Chiodi, A., Gargiulo, M., & Gallachóir, B. P. (2015). Assessing power system security. A framework and a multi model approach. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 73, 283-297. Collins, S., Deane, J. P., & Ó Gallachóir, B. P. (2015). The EU Energy System in 2030: Investigating electricity sector challenges. (In review)
Input Data EU28 2030 Hourly Dispatch Electricity Model 9 Country Portfolios based on REmap Substitution method replacing fossil fuelled generation with mainly VRES REmap Non- REmap 19 Country Portfolios based on 2015 PRIMES reference scenario modified with REmap methodology Increased penetration of VRES without substitution of conventional generation Network based on latest ENTSOE TYNDP Standard generation units for all modes of generation Carbon price of $40
19 Non REmap Vs. 9 REmap VRES is 25% of model generation No conventional capacity replaced with significant increases in VRES VRES is 33% of model generation Replaces conventional capacity with VRES Non REmap country differences from reference case: 47% increase in Solar PV installed capacity 10% Increase of Wind Installed Capacity Total 32% increase in VRES capacity Differences from reference case: 42% Increase of Solar PV Installed Capacity 54% Increase of Wind Installed Capacity Total 48% increase in VRES capacity
Wholesale Electricity Prices Increased VRES causes systematic decrease in system pricing Renewables causing a shift in the merit order curve Affects revenues of conventional power plants
Wholesale Electricity Prices Changes Vs Reference Case Difference between REmap simulation results and simulation of Reference case for 2030
Emissions Intensity Reduction in dispatchable capacity across REmap countries causes increased emissions in non-remap countries Coal Generation @40% efficiency 850 kg CO 2 /MWh.
Changes Vs Reference Case Difference between REmap simulation results and simulation of Reference case for 2030 Emissions Intensity
% Natural Gas Generation Capacity Factors A market with reduced capacity factors Overall profitability reduced CCGT Capacity Factors 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GR HR HU IE Reference Case IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK REmap
Interconnector Congestion Limits the efficient movement of electricity particularly FR, DE and UK Raises concerns over the flexibility of the power systems within these member states with significantly increased VRES 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Interconnector Congestion Reference Case REmap
Variable Renewable Curtailment Raises concerns regarding the ability of the power system to absorb the variable renewables Well interconnected states within the model run experiencing curtailment increased need for flexibility
Demand Response Demand Response (10% of peak) IC congestion remains static Alleviates VRES curtailment Overall impact minimal with increase on high shadow prices on interconnectors Highlighting the value of increasing IC capacity
00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00 20:00 21:00 22:00 23:00 Percentage of Load Electric Vehicles Charging profile of EVs leads to increased load at peak times leading to increased emissions 470 KgCO 2 /MWh 70gCO 2 /Km for Nissan Leaf in REmap 2030 95gCO 2 /Km by 2021 Target for Private cars under Regulation (EC) No 443/2009 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 EV Load Shape Calnan et al. (2013) Modelling the impact of EVs on electricity generation, costs and CO2 emissions Assessing the impact of different charging regimes and future generation profiles for Ireland in 2025
Take home points REmap EU power sector possible subject to careful substitution of dispatchable generation with VRES Conventional Generation cycled heavily with reduced capacity factors under REmap conditions Low curtailment even with high penetration of VRES Reduction in dispatchable capacity of REmap countries means reduction in emissions intensity not achieved in other MS
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