Working paper No. WLTP-02-17 GRPE Informal Group on WLTP, 2 nd Meeting January 2009, Agenda Item 6. Drive Cycle Development and Realworld data in the United States Edward Nam US Environmental Protection Agency WLTP meeting, Geneva, Switzerland January 15, 2009 1
Outline Drive cycle development history in US FTP & off-cycle Inventory cycles Other cycle development SAFD vs Vehicle Specific Power New driving activity data US EPA 5-cycle fuel economy labeling (drive cycle weighting) Next steps Apologies for the American units! 2
Why drive cycles are important Serve as a standardized measurement stick for emissions and fuel economy Can compare across vehicles (benchmark) Manufacturers design vehicles to meet standards set by cycles and test procedures Serves as proxy for average or typical driving Emissions standards are strongly dependent on the cycle and test procedure Drive cycles also change over time, with infrastructure, policy (speed limits), and technology (power:weight) 3
FTP cycle development US Federal Test Procedure LA4 (City, UDDS) Developed in the late 1960 s to describe typical driving (acquired in Los Angeles) The highway HFET cycle was developed to describe a typical rural route (acquired outside Ann Arbor, MI in the 1970s) These 2 cycles used to describe fuel economy in the US US06 (aggressive) and SC03 (A/C) cycles developed based on 3 cities data of instrumented vehicles from Baltimore, Spokane, Atlanta. REP05, REM01, SC03 were developed to cover the full range of driving, but were simplified to US06 and SC03, while FTP remained in place These cycles are extreme to prevent cycle beaters 4
Inventory Cycles - California Implemented new base cycle LA92 determined from driving in LA in early 1990 s (40kph) More representative of 1990 s driving Facility Cycles (speed correction factors) 12 unified correction cycles (UCC) mainly from chase car data in LA From 4 to 95kph Chosen by mean speed, speed-acceleration frequency distribution, positive kinetic energy (PKE), load, maximum acceleration, maximum deceleration, percent idle, percent acceleration, distance, etc These cycles are used to correct the base emission factor from LA92 to other speeds 5
70.0 60.0 Bag 1 Bag 2 CARB LA92 & CO 2 speed correction factor speed (mph) Correction Factor 50.0 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 time 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 Speed (mph) CO2 CARB CO2 FI CO2 TBI 6
US EPA Inventory Cycles USEPA - Facility cycles (1997) Developed by Sierra Research from 3 cities chase car data (Baltimore, Spokane, LA) 11 cycles based on roadway type and congestion level (+ramp) Each cycle lasts ~10 minutes Matched second-by-second segments of chase car data by comparing SAFDs (speed acceleration frequency distribution) Can find on EPA website under MOBILE6 technical support documentation 7
Speed/Acceleration Frequency Distribution (SAFD) 0.06 0.05 0.04 frequency 0.03 0.02 0.01 0 _0 _10 _20 _30 _40 speed _50 _60 _70-6 -5-4 -3-2 -1 0 1 2 3 accel 4 5 6 _80 8
EPA & Sierra cycle specifications time in acceleration/deceleration time at cruise time at idle maximum speed average speed average or predominant speed during cruise maximum acceleration/deceleration rate maximum power length (time and miles) stops per mile average positive kinetic energy (PKE) change per mile and specific power distributions of speed and acceleration 9
USEPA Cycle development (cont d) Microtrips were chosen based on how well they matched the specifications Cycle choice criteria lowest sums of differences on SAFD matching real world power (2va) Segments shortened or lengthened Cycles used for (emissions) speed correction factors and for speed dependent transportation planning in MOBILE6 (emissions inventory model) 10
UC-Riverside CE-CERT International Vehicle Emission Model data collection and cycle development for rapid emissions inventory estimation Almaty, Kazakhstan Beijing, China Lima, Peru Mexico City, Mexico Nairobi, Kenya Pune, India Santiago, Chile Sao Paulo, Brazil Shanghai, China http://www.issrc.org/ive/ 11
Vehicle Specific Power: an alternate metric for cycle manipulation MOVES is EPA inventory model replacing MOBILE MOVES is a modal model based on VSP activity Cycle metric should be based on a more physically causal variable for emissions formation: e.g. Road load (tractive) Power P ~ Av + Bv 2 + Cv 3 + Mva* A,B,C are vehicle target coastdown coefficients * including road grade VSP = P/M (M is mass of vehicle) Divided by mass since emissions (measured in g/km) is largely independent of vehicle mass With VSP distributions and proper modal data, emissions can be converted from one drive cycle to another This approach has been validated by a number of studies 12
VSP Distribution in MOVES Distribution of Time by Mode 30% 0-25 mph 0-40 kph 25-50 mph 40-81 kph >50 mph, >80kph 20% 10% 0% Brak ing Idling <0 0-3 3-6 6-9 9-12 >1 2 <0 0-3 3-6 6-9 9-12 12-18 18-24 24-30 >3 0 <6 6-12 12-18 18-24 24-30 >3 0 VSP/Speed Bin kw/tonne Rural Restricted Urban Unrestricted 13 Percent of Time
Cycle Development requires data Much second by second data has already been collected But these were not collected with harmonization in mind, so data is scattered and inconsistent Require new and more rigorous analysis methods 14
Real world driving data since 3 cities & LA92 Chase car: Los Angeles 2000 Instrumented Vehicle: US EPA Ann Arbor shootout data 2001 Kansas City data 2004-2005 Atlanta (Georgia Tech) 2001-2004 1600+ vehicles, 800+ households, GPS, accelerometer, OBD Vehicles instrumented for 2-3 years Most comprehensive activity data in existence Data excellent source for start activity as well Due to privacy concerns, data has a finite lifetime 15
Los Angeles Comparison Speed Fraction of Activity 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 Los Angeles 1992 Los Angeles 2000 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Speed (miles per hour) More time is spent at high speeds in 2000 than in 1992. Speed limits were increased during this period 16
Los Angeles Comparison Acceleration 0.12 More time is spent at high acceleration in 2000 than in 1992. Fraction of All Accelerations 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 Los Angeles 1992 Los Angeles 2000 0.00 >3 mph/s Acceleration (miles per hour per second) 17
Operating Modes for MOVES VSP bins VSP Class (kw/tonne) Speed Class (mph) 1-25 25-50 50 + 30 + 16 30 40 27-30 24-27 29 39 21-24 18-21 15-18 12-15 28 27 38 37 9-12 15 25 6-9 14 24 35 3-6 13 23 0-3 12 22 33 < 0 11 21 For coast and cruise, 13 modes retained from MOVES2004, plus 8 modes added for MOVES2006 formerly bins 26 and 36 PLUS One mode each for idle, and decel/braking -------------------------------- Gives a total of 23 opmodes 18
Los Angeles in 1992 compared to 2000 0.18 0.16 0.14 Los Angeles then and now Los Angeles 1992 (no idle) Los Angeles 2000 (no idle) Fraction of activity 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 0 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 21 22 23 24 25 26 33 35 36 19 <25 mph 25-50 mph >50mph VSP bin
Other Factors: California (2000) Urban vs Rural 0.35 0.3 0.25 Frequency of Activity 0.2 0.15 Urban California Rural California 0.1 0.05 0 0 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 21 22 23 24 25 26 33 35 36 <25 mph VSP Bin 25-50 mph >50mph Rural driving is faster than urban driving 20
SouthEast Michigan Shootout data 15 PEMS instrumented vehicles. Driven by US EPA or SENSORS employees in calendar year 2001. Note: Drivers were not randomly chosen. Avg. distance driven per vehicle : 52 miles Average speed : 31.2 mph 21
Kansas City (Round 1.5 Only) US EPA study 2004-2005 Instrumented vehicles (not chase car) from random population of newer vehicle owners PEMS (Portable Emissions Measurement System) equipped to measure emissions and activity. Drivers measured for 15,000-30,000 seconds (battery lifetime) Measured conventional as well as hybrid vehicles Avg. distance driven per vehicle: 41 miles Average speed: 30.1 mph 22
Speed acceleration frequency distributions Based on a 2-dimensional matrix of speed and accelerations 23
Frequency of activity 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.08 0.06 Recent Activity Surveys Activity comparison of MOVES, SE Michigan, Kansas City, and Los Angeles MOVES no idle SE Michigan no idle KC no idle LA 2000 (no idle) 0.04 0.02 0 0 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 21 22 23 24 25 26 33 35 36 <25 mph VSP bin 25-50 mph >50mph Recent surveys have the more high speed, high power driving. LA driving is the most aggressive, & may be comparable to US06 24
Conventional vs Hybrid Activity 0.2 0.18 0.16 Total Activity Non-Hybrid Hybrid 0.14 0.12 Freq 0.1 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0 0 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 33 35 36 37 38 39 VSP Bin <25 mph 25 50 mph >50 mph Hybrid driving is slightly less aggressive than conventional vehicles 25
5-Cycle fuel economy labeling Previously, label fuel economy was based on a 2 cycle number: city and highway Real-world fuel economy effects were captured with a 20% correction factor Thesis: Real-world driving can be described by a linear combination of existing drive cycles If weighted properly the activity and fuel economy can be captured better than a fixed correction factor The key is to use cycles with a broad enough range to capture the VSP profile US driving activity is mainly represented by a linear weighting of 3 cycles: FTP(city), HFET, and US06 26
VSP distribution of FTP, HWY & US06 35 VSP frequency for City, Highway, and US06 Cycles 30 25 UDDS City Highway US06 Freq % (by time) 20 15 10 5 0 0 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 21 22 23 24 25 26 33 35 36 37 38 39 <25mph_ VSP bin 25-50 mph >50mph 27
Other relevant 5 cycle issues Through a combination of FTP (city), highway, US06, cold FTP, and hot SC03 (air conditioning) real-world driving was bracketed Result: fuel economy label became more representative of what vehicle owners would truly get throughout a year of driving Potential lessons for harmonization: VSP weighting methodology can be a powerful tool May be able to represent different regions through a combination (and proper weighting) of drive schedules 28
Comparison of FTP, NEDC, JC08 0.5 0.45 0.4 0.35 FTP NEDC JC08 low speed medium speed high speed Frequency 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 0 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 21 22 23 24 25 27 28 29 30 33 35 37 38 39 40 VSP bin The NEDC and JC08 have similar VSP profiles in hot start, should have similar emissions 29 Main difference likely due to sequence following starts
Conclusions US has a long history of drive cycle development Much new data exists in the US for a harmonization project (with more coming) Driving has been getting faster and more aggressive with each passing decade VSP activity is a powerful (yet simple) tool to characterize and combine drive cycles and to compare driving from different regions 30
Issues for future consideration Definition of city vs highway (urban vs extra-urban) City can include high speed driving and highways can be congested stop and go Starts/km variability Shift schedules Scaling drive cycle for small engine cars 31
Next steps We should analyze the existing data especially the Atlanta data before it is destroyed Should agree on QA/QC procedures for data As well as a methodology for cycle generation and comparing representativeness The US EPA is going to start collecting second by second activity and emissions data from realworld operation from a variety of cities 32
Appendix 33
Data Limitations OBD data is noisy when used for accelerations GPS is noisier than OBD Should make an effort to determine best filtering mechanism compared to directly measured accelerations Accelerometer, 5 th wheel, etc. Do accelerations matter? Certification tests have x% eror band for drivers to follow cycles But Robot drivers and computer simulations can follow cycles exactly, so the exact cycle trace can matter 34