HEV, EV, Diesel Technology ; Indian trends and Role of Government for supporting Presented: 6 th JAMA SIAM meeting 30 th. November 2011 Tokyo 30th November 2011 Tokyo
Encouraging Electric Mobility and Manufacturing of Electric Vehicles in India Power split devic e Battery Generator Power circuit Inverter Motor Drive Wheels
The National Hybrid / Electric Mobility Study supports four key objectives Objectives for the National Hybrid / Electric Mobility Study "Develop a mission plan and roadmap for promoting the adoption of a range of electric mobility solutions for India, which can enhance National Fuel Security Affordable Transportation national fuel security, provide affordable and environmentally friendly transportation and enable the Indian automotive industry to achieve global manufacturing leadership" Environment Friendly Transportation Global Manufacturing Leadership 3
The total potential for xevs in India could be 5 7 M units in new vehicle sales by 2020, based on extensive research and analysis Inputs Used to Develop xev Potential for India 5 1 Fuel Security Impact 2 Potential for xevs 2020 Vehicle / Technology Segment Potential for xevs (M Units) Global Perspectives Potential for xevs in India Stakeholder Inputs BEV 2W 3.5 5 HEV Vehicles (4W, Bus, LCV) Other BEV Vehicles (3W, 4W, Bus, LCV) 1.3 1.4 0.2 0.4 4 Price Performance Evolution 3 Consumer Research 1 Total 5 7 Source: Booz & Company analysis 4
Various Alternatives Alternative concepts Alternative fuels: Biofuels CNG H 2 Fuel cell Electrification path Advanced ICE Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid Plug-in Hybrid Range extender Electric Vehicle Technology definition Levers for reduction Advanced gasoline and diesel technologies Start stop, regenerative braking, mild acceleration assistance Acceleration assistance, electric launch, electric driving at low speeds Full hybrid with larger battery and plug-in capability Braking losses Electric vehicle with ICE to recharge the batteries Clean energy sources All necessary propulsion energy is stored in battery Pumping losses Thermodynamic efficiency Idle losses Source: BCG World over Governments are encouraging EV and EV manufacturing in a big way.
About 2-2.5 Million Tonnes of liquid fuel savings are expected to accrue from 2W, 4W, LCVs, buses and 3W; with highest contribution from 2W Potential xev Vehicle Sales and Liquid Fuel Savings 2W 4W Bus LCV 3W Vehicle Sales in 2020 (ʻ000 Units) HEV / PHEV - 1,275 2 120 - Total vehicles: 6 7 M BEV 4,800 170-320 0.3-0.7 30-50 20-30 Fuel Savings due to xevs (Million Tonnes of Liquid Fuel) Fuel Savings 1.4 0.4 0.65 0.16 0.19 0.09 0.16 0.06 0.09 Total oil savings: 2.2 2.5 MT Note: Source: 6 Liquid fuel = petrol / diesel Industry Interviews, SIAM, Booz & Company analysis
This would translate to ~Rs. 13,000 14,000 Crores in liquid fuel savings annually by 2020 Summary of Scenario Analysis Savings from Potential of xevs High Gas / HEV High Gas / HEV / BEV Annual Crude Oil savings over Status Quo Scenario ~Rs. 13,000 Crores ~Rs. 14,000 Crores Reduction in CO 2 emissions over Status Quo Scenario ~1.3% ~1.5% Note: Source: Assumed fuel savings only from 2Ws, 4Ws, LCVs, 3Ws and Buses; no fuel savings from HCVs Assumed 1 Litre of Crude Oil = 0.25 Litre of Petrol and 0.35 Litre of Diesel Crude Oil specific density = 887 g / L Assumed Price of Crude Oil = $108 per gallon in 2020 to calculate savings EIA, SIAM, Booz & Company analysis 7
8 Benefits from xevs
By focusing on xevs, India could meet the objectives set out for the National Hybrid/Electric Mission 1. Fuel Security India can achieve annual savings of ~Rs. 13,000-14,000 crores in 2020 by targeting ~7 M sales penetration of xevs 2. Environmental impact Adoption of xevs will help achieve potential reduction of ~1.3% - 1.5% in CO2 emissions, compared to ICE vehicles 3. Local Manufacturing Capability Local manufacturing can be supported through domestic production incentives, along with specific clauses for demand incentives which require increasing localization of xev components 4. Affordable xev Solutions By providing demand incentives, along with support for R&D and local manufacturing, government can facilitate creation of affordable xev solutions which can meet consumer expectations 5. Employment Generation Through local manufacturing of xevs, at least 60,000 65,000 additional jobs can be generated by 2020 For every manufacturing job, three service jobs are possible so an additional ~180K to ~200K jobs could be created by 2020
Local manufacturing of xevs could enable creation of about 240K to 265K incremental employment opportunities by 2020 umulative Jobs created in High Gas/HEV Scenario (2011-2020) ESTIMATE Cumulative Jobs created in High Gas/HEV/BEV Scenario (2011-2020) 60,600 65,100 22,500 1,400 2W 3W An additional ~180K to ~200K service jobs are possible 22,500 1,600 2W 3W 26,700 4W 30,200 4W 1,500 8,500 Bus LCV 1,600 9,200 Bus - Premium LCV 202 0 Note: Battery: Assumed productivity of 250 employees per M kwh for all vehicle segments; Power Electronics: Assumed 1300 employees per million unit for 4W assumed 10X employee productivity for 2W and 5X for 3W, 1/5X productivity for Bus and 1/2X for LCVs; Motor: Assumed 2600 employees per million unit (2X of motor controllers) for 4W assumed 10X employee productivity per motor for 2W and 5X for 3W, 1/5X productivity for Bus and 1/2X for LCV Source: Company Websites, Booz & Company analysis 10 202 0
Adoption of battery operated 2Ws seem to have the largest return across all Vehicle Segment Scenario segments 2 Wheelers 3 Wheelers 4 Wheelers Bus LCV High HEV High HEV/BEV High HEV High Summary : Net Benefits By Vehicle segment HEV/BEV High HEV High HEV/BEV Total net benefits of Rs. 39,000 43,000 Crores; total investments of Rs. 20,500 23,000 Crores High HEV High HEV/BEV High HEV High HEV/BEV Net Benefits (NPV in Rs Crores) 28,000 1) 1,200 1,700 4,800 7,100 3,300 3,700 1,500 2,700 Cumulative liquid fuel savings (2011-2020) Ease of Implementatio n Total Investments (Rs. Crores) Note: Source: 4.9 MT 0.2 MT 0.3 MT 1.1 MT 1.6 MT 0.5 MT 0.6 MT 0.3 MT 0.5 MT Moderate to High Moderate Low to Moderate Moderate Low 10,200 550 900 7,200 8,700 1,100 1,200 1,400 1,800 Net benefit of Rs. 28,000 Crore includes implementation of xev strategy in motorbikes as well, which account for majority of BEV 2W sales Booz & Company analysis 11
Government can drive the xev market through interventions in five key areas Key Policy Levers for Driving xev Demand xev Fuel Efficiency Regulations Demand Side Higher standards in xev fuel efficiency Technology Mandated maximum emissions of carbon dioxide and other pollutantsneutral Mandate xevs in government fleets, public transportation to create initial demand for OEMs Incentivize sales of xevs through cash subsidies to consumers Supply Side Research and Development Provide OEMs and suppliers with benefits like accelerated depreciation and tax holidays to encourage local assembly and manufacturing Phase out existing low import duties on components over ~5 years to encourage localization Fund R&D programs along with OEMs / component suppliers to develop optimal solutions for India at low cost Technology dependent Infrastructure Support Roll out pilot programs to support hybrid/electric vehicles and test effectiveness Make modest investments to build public charging infrastructure to support electric vehicles (especially for buses) 12
Enabling structure for EV National Council for Electric Mobility Ministers, Leaders from Industry & Academia National Board for Electric Mobility Secretary Level At Secy. Level (25 members) with all stakeholders National Automotive Board The Expert Body to Assist NBEM & NCEM The Enabling Mechanism Common Platform, High Level Ownership, Synergy, Sustained support, One Vision/Target for the country and therefore Common priorities, avoid duplication, 13
Alternative Energy Driven Vehicles Fiscal incentives for Hybrid and EVs by way of lower Excise Duty to encourage manufacturing of such vehicles in India Excise Duty In % Remarks Hybrid Cars 10% Normal Cars attract 10% (small Electric Cars 5% cars) or 22% + Rs 15000/- ED (other than small cars) Specified Parts of Electric Vehicles 5% Other parts attract 10% ED Electric 2W & 3 W 5% Other 2W & 3W attract 10% ED Incentive scheme worth Rs 96 crores announced by MNRE for 1.5 years. National Mission on Electric/Hybrid Mobility initiated by MoHI SIAM working as a close partner in this effort 14
Diesel Technology SIAM Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers
Perceptions Slide : 16
Implications Expert Group on Pricing of Petroleum Products proposes Rs. 80,000 as additional tax on diesel vehicles NGO s and other stakes recommend additional tax because of he perceptions SIAM stand: Improvement in Diesel Technology has been very fast in the last decade Use of Diesel Fuel in Passenger Cars and MUVs in India reduces pressure on overall Crude requirement Diesel Technology would play significant role in reducing Carbon Footprint from Road Transport in India Penalising a particular technology, would retard the development of the Technology Hence, no additional Tax should be levied on Diesel Passenger Cars and SUVs in India
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