EU Ship Emissions Time to Act Bill Hemmings Transport and Environment www.transportenvironment.org
Ships fast becoming the biggest source of air pollution in EU DG ENV website Largest EU transport mode; 77% of freight volume 30% man-made global NOx from shipping 2020 EU shipping > EU land-based SOx/NOx TSAP 2005 Average Ship fuel world s dirtiest (S, heavy metals) 50,000+ premature deaths annually in EU J Brandt et al. www.ceeh.dk 2011 = 12% ( 61bn) of total health costs of Europe air pollution in 2020 CO 2 + 90% since 1990; 6% of global 2020; trebled by 2050 12-18% 2 C carbon budget by 2050 - IMO 2009
90% of Shipping NOx/SOx in North Sea and Baltic Sea originates within 90km of coast In parts of Northern Europe ship emissions account for >90% exceedance eutrophication critical loads CEEC,2002a Sources: Entec UK (2002), EMEP (1997)
Sulphur deposition from international shipping (per cent) 2000 2020 CLE Source: IIASA (2007)
SO 2 projections land v shipping (without revised Annex VI) 85% reduction 1980-2008 in EU27 land-based SO 2 emissions IIASA 2004&2010
Higher surface Ozone concentration from shipping Source:Globalisation, Transport and the Environment OECD 2010
NOx projections land v shipping (without revised Annex VI) 40% reduction 1980-2008 EU27 land-based NOx emissions IIASA 2010
Annex VI NOx standards are weak * Standard subject to revision in 2012
The EU and MARPOL Annex VI EU unanimous support Annex VI revisions Apr/Oct 2008 MARPOL; Parties to transpose by entry into force; July 2010 IMO Code; be ready to implement & enforce thru national legislation HU, AT, SK, CZ, Monaco yet to ratify => can t vote on EEDI Annex VI transposed? Yes; DE, DK, FR, NL, PL & SE (-0.1%) Not yet; UK, ES, Estonia, Finland.? EU not MARPOL party; thru UNCLOS must adopt laws at least equal to accepted international rules/standards ie MARPOL Member States in breach of IMO code, EU of UNCLOS
2010 200m coastal ECA 2006/7 Passenger (not cruise) 2008 rev ship engines <30 litres ships 1.5% outside SECAS regulated for PM/NOx 2010 0.1% at berth
EU SO 2 The MARPOL Effect
EU NOx The MARPOL Effect
Annex VI; what EU should do Full transposition into national laws Early proposal for ECA in Med, Black Sea, NE Atlantic - based on detailed emissions analysis Distance to shore ECAs eg Med? Baltic & N Sea NOx control areas All EU sea areas become full ECAs (SECA, NECA) Align cruise and passenger ship standards; 7 day Alaskan cruise within US ECA; cost $6.60 per pax/per day Incorporate Tier II & III NOx standards in Proposal
SECA costs - all ships. Health benefits - only EU! Scenario 1 Baltic and North Seas as SECAs Scenario 3: Scenario 1 + Mediterranean and Black Seas SECAs Scenario 1 : North Sea & Baltic Sea 2020 Source: AEA Technology (Dec 2009) Scenario 3 = 1 + Mediterranean & Black Seas Abatement costs 0.9 4.6 bn 2.0 12 bn Health benefits 10 23 bn 14 32 bn Benefit to cost ratio 2.2 26 1.2-16
What about PM? No PM limit values in Annex VI Low S reduces PM but not sufficiently Low S does not necessarily reduce BC BC both a health and climate problem Ship BC big problem for Arctic climate Ship BC is growing in EU
BC projections EU transport ( kt) EU ship BC = 40-60+% EU Transport BC by 2030 IIASA 2010
EU; PM & BC Emissions EU must press for PM standards in Annex VI+ Support additional BC action in IMO eg additional particle standards Special measures for Arctic Only 0.1% S enables efficient after-treatment for BC 0.1% global standard next step Speed limits in harbours/coastal areas - reduce SOx/CO2/NOx/BC by ~ 30%
Annex VI and beyond EU NOx charge for existing ships Why wait until 2013+? EU must commit to 0.5% S globally from 2020 and work against any delay No ECA expansion and NOx inaction prejudicing AQ EC feasibility Study of 0.1% globally Will ensure cleaner/safer distillates Incremental benefits BC (health and climate)
Compliance and Industry EMSA; industry studies extreme cases, exaggerated Where is modal shift an issue? 7% of routes? Scrubber payback is ~ 0.6-0.9 years Enforcement; tamper proof abatement equipment Placing on market requirements We need availability requirements on suppliers Stronger Port state enforcement
EU Ship Emissions The time to Act Is Now!