MAY 2014 ROCHESTER PUBLIC SCHOOLS ENROLLMENT ANALYSIS ROCHESTER PUBLIC SCHOOLS TEAMWORKS INTERNATIONAL

ROCHESTER PUBLIC SCHOOLS ENROLLMENT ANALYSIS MAY 2014 ROCHESTER PUBLIC SCHOOLS TEAMWORKS INTERNATIONAL

ROCHESTER PUBLIC SCHOOLS ROCHESTER, MN ENROLLMENT ANALYSIS 1 INTRODUCTION, METHODOLOGY & SUMMARY 7 APPENDIX 1 - HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS & CAPACITY UTILIZATION ESTIMATES FOR INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS 17 APPENDIX 2 - HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS & CAPACITY UTILIZATION ESTIMATES FOR INDIVIDUAL MIDDLE SCHOOLS 20 APPENDIX 3 - HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS & CAPACITY UTILIZATION ESTIMATES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGH SCHOOLS & COMBINED SPECIAL SCHOOLS

1 INTRODUCTION & METHODOLGY This analysis reports historical and projected student enrollments for the entire Rochester Public School District, as well as for each individual school within the district. Special schools were combined into a single report. This analysis also reports capacity utilization figures for the entire district, as well as for each individual school. Historical enrollment data and building capacity data utilized in this report was obtained from the Rochester Public School District. Five-year enrollment projections for grades PK/EC and Kindergarten were derived by utilizing public birth data obtained from the Minnesota Department of Health. Projected enrollments for grades 1 through 12 were then calculated by employing a cohort survival methodology. With this method, survival ratios were calculated based on historical student enrollments by dividing the total number of students per grade in a given year by the total number of students in the preceding grade in the previous year. An average of long-term and short-term survival ratios was then utilized to project future 1 st through 12 th graders. In addition, five-year growth rates derived from age-specific U.S. Census data were factored into each projection for each elementary attendance area to reflect the unique demographic characteristics of each of these regions. Student enrollment projections were then calculated for each attendance area, and these figures were then combined to obtain enrollment projections for the entire district. Enrollment projections for newcomers were derived by extrapolating the current school-year figure forward. This was done because it is very difficult to estimate students who might be newcomers in the future due to their irregular historical numbers. Enrollment figures at special schools were derived by calculating their historical averages as a percent of the total overall student population, and projecting this formula forward. However, 12 th grade students at special schools were derived by taking short and long term annual growth rates and projecting them forward. This was done because there has been a steady growth of 12 th graders in special schools from the 2006/2007 school year to the current school year, especially at the ALC s. It is estimated that this growth trend will continue. SUMMARY Table 1 reflects the combined historical and projected figures for the following schools: Elementary Schools Bamber Valley Ben Franklin Montessori at Franklin Churchill Elton Hills Folwell Gage George Gibbs Harriet Bishop Hoover Jefferson Lincoln (K-8) Longfellow Pinewood Riverside Sunset Terrace Washington Middle Schools Friedell John Adams Kellogg Willow Creek High Schools Century John Marshall Mayo

2 In the current school year, there are 16,048 total students in grades PK/EC- 12 enrolled at one of the twenty-four schools listed above. If we break these figures down further, there are currently 8,067 students enrolled in grades PK/EC 5; 3,480 students enrolled in grades 6 8; and 4,501 students enrolled in grades 9 12. Table 2 reflects total student enrollment figures for special schools in the district, as well as newcomers at the elementary, middle and high school levels. Table 3 reports total historical and combined enrollment projections for the district, and include enrollment totals from tables 1 and 2. As of March, 2014 the district is serving approximately 16,717 total students. This includes 8,067 students in grades PK/EC-5; 3,480 students in grades 6-8; and 4,501 students in grades 9-12. There are an additional 165 students classified as newcomers that have not been assigned a specific grade level (114 in grades K-5 and 51 in grades 6-12). And finally, there are 504 total students who are enrolled either in special schools or in the Early Childhood (Birth 2) program. Appendices 1, 2, and 3 report historical and projected enrollment figures, as well as capacity utilization figures for each individual elementary, middle, and high school, respectively. In addition, combined historical and projected enrollment figures are reported for special schools in the district. Since school year 2006-2007, overall enrollment at the 24 school listed in table 1 has grown by 1.8%; however changes in enrollment were distributed unevenly across the different grade levels. Growth at the elementary level grew by 11.5%. Middle school saw a growth rate of 1.2%, while enrollment at the high school level declined by -11.6%. Five-year projections estimate that growth/decline will again vary widely across each grade level. Enrollment at the elementary level is expected to reverse prior trends and decline by -4.6% to 7,676 total students. However, enrollment projections at both the middle school and high school levels are expected to increase by 6.9% and 4.5%, respectively. Overall, the total student enrollment at these 24 schools is expected to remain relatively flat, increasing slightly by 0.4% to 16,101 total students by school year 2018-2019. The swing in growth/decline rates at the different grade levels is most likely due to the fluctuation in the number of births in the region. The total number of births in a particular region is a strong indicator of future prekindergarten and kindergarten enrollment. Charts 1 and 2 reflect the total number of public births by school year beginning in 1998-1999 and ending in 2012-2013 (in this case a school year begins September 1 st and ends August 30 th of the following year). Here, we assume that children born in a particular school year will begin kindergarten 6 years later. For example, if a child was born in the 2000-2001 school year, they would have begun kindergarten in the 2006-2007 school year. In charts 1 and 2, the school year in which children are assumed to begin kindergarten is shown in parentheses along the horizontal axis of both charts. Chart 1 reports public births for the state of Minnesota, and chart 2 reflects the total number of public births in Olmsted County, the Rochester Public School District, and the city of Rochester. Within the state, public births peaked in school year 2006-2007 when there were 62,015 births. Subsequent years saw a sharp decline in the number of births. Between 2006-2007 and 2011-2012 the total number of births declined by -17.6% to 51,104. School year 2012-2013 saw a slight rebound from the previous year s low. Births in the Rochester Public School District grew steadily from 1998-1999 until their peak in school year 2007-2008. Between 2007-2008 and 2011-2012, births in the district declined by -19.3%, however 2012-2013 saw a slight rebound. These trends mirrored those seen in Olmsted County and the city of Rochester. This fluctuation in births had a significant impact on student enrollments in the district, and will most likely continue to do so in the near future. As births rose throughout the late 1990 s and early 2000 s, the school district experienced increasing enrollment at the elementary school level as the lag effect of these births eventually entered the public school system. Between school-year 2006-2007 and the current school year, elementary schools in the district added an additional 832 elementary

3 students. Elementary school enrollment is projected to peak in 2015-2016, after which it will begin to decline as the district begins to experience the impact of declining births after 2007-2008. Conversely, middle school and high school enrollments are projected to experience growth in the nearterm as the swelling current ranks of elementary students advance in grade level. The decline in births is not just limited to Rochester or the state of Minnesota. According to 2013 Census Bureau estimates, the United States has experienced the fewest births since 1998 and the lowest population gain in 35 years. U.S. births rates have been dropping since reaching an all-time high in 2007, and declines were reported among women of all ages and races. In Minnesota, the birth rate is close to being the lowest it s been in 100 years according to the Minnesota State Demographic Center. Children s Hospital in the Twin Cities, The University of Minnesota s Amplatz Children s Hospital, and hospital maternity units across the state have experienced significant declines in pediatric admissions in recent years. Most experts attribute this downward trend to the bad economy and the recession that technically lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, but whose impact reverberated well beyond 2009. The theory is that younger people with money worries, especially younger women, feel they can t afford to start a family or to add to it. Student enrollment at Rochester Public School is strongly tied to the total number of births in the region, which in turn, is strongly tied to the overall economy. In Rochester and the surrounding area, the Mayo Clinic forms the core of the regional economy. The Mayo Clinic is Minnesota s largest employer, providing jobs for more than 40,000 Minnesotan s, including over 33,000 in Rochester. Roughly 4% of the state of Minnesota s Gross Domestic Product is a direct result of Mayo s economic impact, and each year, the Mayo Clinic contributes approximately $1.5 billion in state and local taxes. In May, 2013 the Minnesota State Legislature passed an economic development project called Destination Medical Center (DMC). Under the new DMC initiative, Mayo Clinic is poised to expand dramatically, adding an additional 25,000 to 30,000 jobs over the next 20 years. Economic development and the multiplier effect surrounding DMC will also result in the creation of thousands of more jobs in the region. However, the project is still in its infancy, and is currently in the planning phases. As part of the legislation, the Destination Medical Center Corporation (DMCC) is required to develop a Master Development Plan, whose purpose is to identify planned and anticipated development projects surrounding the initiative. Once a plan is completed, public hearings must be held, and the city must approve the plan. Upon approval, the DMCC will set up medical center districts and subdistricts, and identify specific development projects that will occur within those districts. Rochester Public Schools will most certainly be impacted greatly by the DMC initiative. However, the timeline surrounding these events is uncertain. Thus, in the near-term, overall student enrollment at the Rochester Public School District are most likely going to be impacted by the number of births in the region. So long as the economic outlook continues to improve, the local birth rate could quickly rebound to pre-2008/2009 levels. In the long term, enrollment at the district will be greatly impacted by the implementation of the Destination Medical Center initiative.

4 Table 1 - ROCHESTER PUBLIC SCHOOL DISTRICT HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT PK/EC 165 178 151 152 180 215 228 239 213 211 206 184 192 K 1,250 1,227 1,297 1,322 1,315 1,262 1,326 1,380 1,334 1,315 1,279 1,118 1,184 1 1,198 1,281 1,248 1,321 1,339 1,312 1,293 1,343 1,404 1,357 1,340 1,302 1,137 2 1,149 1,181 1,232 1,251 1,310 1,289 1,312 1,282 1,326 1,385 1,338 1,319 1,283 3 1,180 1,146 1,197 1,210 1,208 1,307 1,265 1,285 1,262 1,307 1,359 1,313 1,296 4 1,157 1,168 1,152 1,188 1,179 1,201 1,317 1,240 1,275 1,254 1,299 1,347 1,307 5 1,119 1,167 1,182 1,134 1,172 1,156 1,184 1,298 1,225 1,255 1,235 1,280 1,329 6 1,189 1,136 1,166 1,186 1,132 1,168 1,166 1,172 1,196 1,218 1,200 1,252 1,297 7 1,122 1,185 1,118 1,149 1,169 1,112 1,174 1,147 1,162 1,186 1,208 1,190 1,242 8 1,127 1,129 1,175 1,090 1,125 1,144 1,115 1,161 1,138 1,153 1,177 1,199 1,181 9 1,440 1,394 1,418 1,324 1,232 1,168 1,192 1,166 1,226 1,241 1,267 1,291 1,272 10 1,314 1,205 1,180 1,179 1,234 1,148 1,177 1,162 1,107 1,164 1,179 1,204 1,227 11 1,202 1,208 1,151 1,123 1,104 1,170 1,098 1,128 1,106 1,054 1,108 1,122 1,146 12 1,133 1,122 1,100 1,087 1,066 1,105 1,092 1,045 1,066 1,045 997 1,048 1,061 Total PK/EC-12 15,745 15,727 15,767 15,716 15,765 15,757 15,939 16,048 16,040 16,146 16,193 16,169 16,153 Total K-12 15,580 15,549 15,616 15,564 15,585 15,542 15,711 15,809 15,827 15,935 15,987 15,985 15,961 PK/EC - 12 Capacity % TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD Total PK/EC - 5 7,218 7,348 7,459 7,578 7,703 7,742 7,925 8,067 8,039 8,084 8,056 7,863 7,728 PK/EC - 5 Capacity % 79.9% 81.3% 82.6% 83.9% 85.3% 85.7% 87.7% 89.3% 89.0% 89.5% 89.2% 87.0% 85.5% Total 6-8 3,438 3,450 3,459 3,425 3,426 3,424 3,455 3,480 3,496 3,557 3,586 3,641 3,720 6-8 Capacity % TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD Total 9-12 5,089 4,929 4,849 4,713 4,636 4,591 4,559 4,501 4,505 4,505 4,551 4,665 4,705 9-12 Capacity % TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD *Target PK/EC - 12 Class Size Working Capacity - To Be Determined *Target PK/EC - 5 Class Size Working Capacity - 9,035 *Target 6-8 Class Size Working Capacity - To Be Determined *Target 9-12 Class Size Working Capacity - To Be Determined

5 TABLE 2 - TOTAL EC (BIRTH-2), NEWCOMERS, & OTHER SCHOOLS HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT EC (Birth - 2) 53 64 70 76 72 86 100 95 96 96 97 98 98 Other Schools 266 286 279 322 336 344 395 409 432 450 470 493 515 NC Elementary 55 48 39 50 71 65 83 114 114 114 114 114 114 NC Middle 32 27 21 22 15 20 33 29 29 29 29 29 29 NC High 36 40 13 16 25 0 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 TABLE 3 - COMBINED ROCHESTER PUBLIC SCHOOLS HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT Combined Total 16,187 16,192 16,189 16,202 16,284 16,272 16,571 16,717 16,734 16,856 16,924 16,925 16,930

6 64,000 62,000 60,000 58,000 56,000 54,000 55,671 56,591 57,711 57,847 59,619 59,704 59,340 60,780 62,015 61,027 58,652 56,932 54,368 Births in Minnesota 52,000 Chart 1 51,104 51,284 50,000 Birth Year (Kindergarten Year) 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 2,063 2,062 2,011 1,966 1,956 1,841 1,799 1,746 1,769 1,751 1,660 1,667 1,697 1,608 1,634 1,436 1,495 1,480 1,514 1,562 1,475 1,376 1,363 1,317 1,626 1,619 1,587 Chart 2 2,134 1,784 1,668 2,012 1,994 1,915 1,719 1,694 1,706 1,648 1,605 1,589 1,556 1,439 1,373 1,780 1,520 1,438 Births in Olmsted County Births in School District Births in Rochester 1,000 Birth Year (Kindergarten Year)

7 APPENDIX 1 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS & CAPACITY UTILIZATION ESTIMATES FOR INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS

8 BEN FRANKLIN HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT PK/EC 10 18 12 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 K 104 110 105 108 116 99 97 124 109 107 104 91 96 1 77 95 100 120 103 125 91 110 126 110 109 106 92 2 97 77 93 113 129 102 128 90 112 128 112 111 108 3 74 92 76 108 88 125 94 125 86 107 123 107 106 4 86 80 94 88 96 98 120 102 129 89 110 127 111 5 89 85 84 97 90 96 93 119 101 128 88 109 125 Total 537 557 564 641 627 648 624 670 662 669 646 650 637 Capacity % 71.7% 74.4% 75.3% 85.6% 83.7% 86.5% 83.3% 89.5% 88.4% 89.3% 86.2% 86.8% 85.1% *Target Class Size Working Capacity (K - 5) - 749 MONTESSORI AT FRANKLIN HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT K 35 34 36 34 35 35 35 36 35 35 34 30 31 1 35 32 32 36 34 36 33 32 34 33 33 32 28 2 33 34 31 34 36 34 33 30 30 32 32 31 30 3 32 32 33 28 31 36 32 33 29 29 31 30 30 4 32 28 30 33 26 33 36 31 32 28 28 30 30 5 28 32 26 27 32 24 32 33 29 30 27 27 29 Total 195 192 188 192 194 198 201 195 190 188 184 180 178 Capacity % 93.8% 92.3% 90.4% 92.3% 93.3% 95.2% 96.6% 93.8% 91.3% 90.5% 88.7% 86.7% 85.5% *Target Class Size Working Capacity (K - 5) - 208

9 CHURCHILL HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT PK/EC 31 30 25 27 23 31 21 24 26 25 25 22 23 K 55 81 78 70 81 70 53 68 65 64 62 55 58 1 74 58 76 79 72 74 67 52 66 64 63 61 53 2 65 76 58 86 79 75 72 65 52 66 63 62 61 Total 225 245 237 262 255 250 213 209 209 219 213 200 195 Capacity % 99.1% 107.9% 104.4% 115.4% 112.3% 110.1% 93.8% 92.1% 92.2% 96.7% 94.0% 88.0% 85.7% *Target Class Size Working Capacity (PK/EC - 2) - 227 HOOVER HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT PK/EC 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 17 16 16 16 16 16 3 73 69 74 59 85 81 79 62 64 51 65 62 61 4 85 74 64 79 67 89 88 74 63 65 52 66 63 5 69 85 71 66 78 65 84 93 74 63 65 52 66 Total 227 228 209 204 230 235 261 246 217 195 197 195 206 Capacity % 82.2% 82.6% 75.7% 73.9% 83.3% 85.1% 94.6% 89.1% 78.5% 70.5% 71.4% 70.8% 74.7% *Target Class Size Working Capacity (PK/EC & 3-5) 276

10 BAMBER VALLEY HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT PK/EC 6 6 6 9 14 17 12 13 13 13 12 11 11 K 160 137 156 150 134 139 127 153 143 141 137 120 127 1 169 176 156 140 166 147 149 136 164 153 151 147 128 2 157 166 180 134 147 164 135 149 131 158 148 146 142 3 172 157 180 150 136 150 157 137 147 130 156 146 144 4 155 166 159 170 155 135 139 152 132 142 125 150 141 5 136 153 166 148 170 148 125 132 145 125 135 119 143 Total 955 961 1003 901 922 900 844 872 875 862 864 839 836 Capacity % 103.4% 104.0% 108.5% 97.5% 99.8% 97.4% 91.3% 94.4% 94.7% 93.3% 93.6% 90.8% 90.5% *Target Class Size Working Capacity (ECSE/DHH - 5) 924 ELTON HILLS HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT PK/EC 7 5 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 K 68 72 76 105 95 75 78 82 83 82 79 69 73 1 70 70 81 86 100 92 77 88 87 88 87 84 74 2 62 63 67 90 70 87 98 80 89 88 89 88 85 3 68 67 64 66 83 75 84 97 79 88 87 88 87 4 64 63 70 71 60 70 91 80 101 83 92 91 92 5 72 65 60 71 57 50 73 84 77 97 79 88 87 Total 411 405 420 492 465 450 501 511 516 525 513 508 498 Capacity % 72.7% 71.7% 74.3% 87.1% 82.3% 79.6% 88.7% 90.4% 91.3% 93.0% 90.8% 90.0% 88.1% *Target Class Size Working Capacity (K-5) 565

11 FOLWELL HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT PK/EC 2 0 0 1 2 0 1 5 1 1 1 1 1 K 60 44 47 48 40 43 54 46 48 48 46 40 43 1 56 57 44 57 52 44 49 64 52 54 54 52 46 2 42 54 49 44 59 54 49 57 69 56 59 58 56 3 48 41 57 52 46 59 55 48 58 70 57 59 59 4 56 49 39 54 49 47 61 55 48 58 70 57 60 5 44 59 57 37 56 44 42 62 54 47 56 69 56 Total 308 304 293 293 304 291 311 337 330 334 343 336 319 Capacity % 82.8% 81.7% 78.8% 78.8% 81.7% 78.2% 83.6% 90.6% 88.6% 89.7% 92.1% 90.3% 85.8% *Target Class Size Working Capacity (K-5) - 372 GAGE HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT PK/EC 31 29 24 21 29 38 50 42 38 38 37 32 34 K 157 142 140 103 110 85 158 146 137 135 132 115 122 1 130 149 138 97 84 97 88 111 127 119 117 114 100 2 145 117 147 107 89 80 101 94 111 127 119 118 114 3 127 134 136 88 104 73 79 102 90 107 122 115 113 4 115 116 133 101 82 106 80 81 103 91 108 123 116 5 121 106 117 95 98 86 100 87 80 102 90 107 121 Total 826 793 835 612 596 565 656 663 687 719 725 723 720 Capacity % 111.3% 106.9% 112.5% 82.5% 80.3% 76.1% 88.4% 89.4% 92.6% 96.9% 97.7% 97.5% 97.0% *Target Class Size Working Capacity (PK/EC - 5) - 742

12 GEORGE GIBBS HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT Grade 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018 2018-2019 PK/EC 18 20 29 5 0 14 13 13 11 12 K 138 137 148 159 119 127 125 122 106 112 1 125 140 146 157 165 124 133 131 127 111 2 113 120 142 152 151 164 124 132 130 127 3 117 119 128 142 152 156 169 127 136 134 4 104 112 123 126 139 150 154 167 126 134 5 83 100 103 127 117 134 144 148 160 121 Total 698 748 819 868 843 868 862 840 797 751 Capacity % 76.0% 81.5% 89.2% 94.6% 91.8% 94.6% 93.9% 91.5% 86.8% 81.8% *Target Class Size Working Capacity (PK/EC - 5) - 918 HARRIET BISHOP HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT PK/EC 18 26 20 14 24 23 40 31 28 28 27 24 25 K 76 69 86 65 70 59 69 100 80 79 77 67 71 1 82 88 79 85 76 69 76 77 116 93 91 89 78 2 72 82 86 74 82 71 61 71 71 108 86 85 83 3 77 74 77 76 73 86 61 61 67 68 102 81 80 4 98 82 70 75 78 64 78 57 57 63 64 96 77 5 76 103 81 65 76 81 64 77 57 57 63 63 96 Total 499 524 499 454 479 453 449 474 477 495 510 505 509 Capacity % 93.6% 98.3% 93.6% 85.2% 89.9% 85.0% 84.2% 88.9% 89.6% 92.9% 95.7% 94.8% 95.4% *Target Class Size Working Capacity (PK/EC - 5) - 533

13 JEFFERSON HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT PK/EC 13 12 11 20 18 27 33 25 0 0 0 0 0 K 67 78 85 66 59 69 86 75 77 75 73 64 68 1 71 73 82 89 64 68 80 96 83 85 84 82 71 2 70 75 82 79 83 66 66 85 98 85 87 85 83 3 87 73 68 81 72 82 71 68 87 100 87 89 87 4 85 86 84 66 76 75 92 78 73 94 108 93 95 5 78 82 85 78 64 76 77 85 76 71 91 105 91 Total 471 479 497 479 436 463 505 512 494 510 529 518 496 Capacity % 83.2% 84.6% 87.8% 84.6% 77.0% 81.8% 89.2% 90.5% 87.2% 90.1% 93.5% 91.5% 87.6% *Target Class Size Working Capacity (K - 5) - 566 Includes 30 Seats Reserved for ASD Students LONGFELLOW HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT PK/EC 0 0 0 1 2 3 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 K 46 51 47 58 57 55 59 59 57 56 55 48 51 1 41 46 51 48 57 55 58 55 59 57 56 55 48 2 45 45 45 44 44 52 51 57 52 56 54 54 52 3 44 47 42 46 47 37 52 51 57 52 56 54 53 4 33 41 40 44 44 43 44 49 52 58 53 57 55 5 44 34 39 43 41 40 41 47 49 52 58 53 57 Total 253 264 264 284 292 285 310 318 326 331 332 320 316 Capacity % 68.0% 71.0% 71.0% 76.3% 78.5% 76.6% 83.3% 85.5% 87.7% 89.1% 89.3% 86.1% 84.8% *Target Class Size Working Capacity (K-5) - 372

14 PINEWOOD HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT PK/EC 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 8 9 K 47 54 61 51 44 39 41 45 45 45 43 38 40 1 50 58 56 44 46 40 42 41 45 46 45 44 38 2 53 51 49 44 41 40 44 41 40 45 45 44 43 3 56 60 53 37 45 46 44 34 40 39 43 43 43 4 44 57 60 34 37 46 52 36 33 38 37 42 42 5 56 51 59 48 34 33 49 53 37 33 39 38 42 Total 306 331 338 259 247 244 272 260 250 255 262 257 257 Capacity % 84.1% 90.9% 92.9% 71.2% 67.9% 67.0% 74.7% 71.4% 68.7% 70.1% 72.1% 70.7% 70.6% *Target Class Size Working Capacity (PK/EC - 5) - 364 RIVERSIDE HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT PK/EC 29 21 20 14 24 21 22 47 23 23 22 19 20 K 112 100 105 91 121 127 100 106 106 104 101 89 94 1 109 119 109 80 91 93 108 99 98 98 97 94 82 2 91 98 100 78 83 88 96 103 95 94 94 92 90 3 99 94 97 92 69 84 84 93 99 91 91 90 89 4 90 92 94 85 84 62 72 91 89 95 87 86 86 5 89 90 108 83 79 79 67 87 99 96 103 95 94 NC 55 48 39 50 71 65 83 114 114 114 114 114 114 Total 674 662 672 573 622 619 632 740 722 715 708 679 669 Capacity % 85.6% 84.1% 85.4% 72.8% 79.0% 78.7% 80.3% 94.0% 91.8% 90.9% 90.0% 86.3% 85.0% *Target Class Size Working Capacity (PK/EC - 5) - Includes 133 seats for Newcomers 787

15 SUNSET TERRACE HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT PK/EC 18 28 27 15 19 22 28 25 24 24 23 20 21 K 146 136 156 109 100 106 100 114 110 109 106 92 98 1 123 149 130 116 139 113 104 110 118 114 113 110 96 2 114 135 143 101 130 130 115 98 108 116 112 110 107 3 122 107 132 111 106 132 129 115 96 106 113 110 108 4 116 134 119 78 113 106 126 118 109 91 100 107 104 5 122 124 132 96 91 135 107 117 118 108 90 99 107 Total 761 813 839 626 698 744 709 697 683 667 657 649 640 Capacity % 101.9% 108.8% 112.3% 83.8% 93.4% 99.6% 94.9% 93.3% 91.4% 89.3% 88.0% 86.8% 85.7% *Target Class Size Working Capacity (PK/EC - 5) - 747 WASHINGTON HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT PK/EC 0 3 4 1 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 K 64 65 66 68 58 54 56 57 58 57 56 49 52 1 61 61 63 65 62 58 57 56 57 59 58 56 49 2 57 59 57 60 64 60 58 56 55 56 57 57 55 3 56 57 58 56 55 62 59 56 54 53 55 56 55 4 56 58 56 58 55 55 62 54 54 53 52 53 54 5 56 56 56 58 60 52 55 57 53 53 52 51 52 Total 350 359 360 366 354 341 347 336 352 352 349 341 337 Capacity % 90.2% 92.5% 92.8% 94.3% 91.2% 87.9% 89.4% 86.6% 90.7% 90.6% 90.0% 88.0% 86.9% 388 PK/EC Program Begins in School Year 2014-2015 *Target Class Size Working Capacity (PK/EC - 5) -

16 LINCOLN HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT K 53 54 53 58 58 59 54 50 54 53 52 45 48 1 50 50 51 54 53 55 57 51 48 51 51 49 43 2 46 49 45 50 54 44 53 55 49 46 49 48 47 3 45 42 50 43 49 51 43 51 53 47 44 47 47 4 42 42 40 48 45 49 50 43 50 52 46 43 47 5 39 42 41 39 46 44 48 48 42 49 51 45 42 6 31 30 38 36 34 44 42 44 44 38 45 47 41 7 26 30 28 37 34 34 44 39 42 42 37 43 45 8 25 27 30 27 39 33 31 41 37 40 40 35 41 Total 357 366 376 392 412 413 422 422 419 419 415 403 400 Capacity % 66.1% 67.8% 69.6% 72.6% 76.3% 76.5% 78.1% 78.1% 77.6% 77.6% 76.8% 74.7% 74.2% *Target Class Size Working Capacity (K-8) - 540

17 APPENDIX 2 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS & CAPACITY UTILIZATION ESTIMATES FOR INDIVIDUAL MIDDLE SCHOOLS

18 FRIEDELL HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT 6 90 114 137 154 149 159 150 159 152 156 152 159 166 7 77 93 105 142 147 145 156 145 155 149 152 149 155 8 119 82 88 110 132 144 147 154 145 155 148 152 149 Total 286 289 330 406 428 448 453 458 452 459 453 460 470 Capacity % TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD *Target Class Size Working Capacity - To Be Determined JOHN ADAMS HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT 6 387 385 366 351 334 335 368 377 367 376 368 384 400 7 385 388 381 353 345 312 339 359 372 362 371 363 379 8 311 394 376 371 357 333 308 348 359 372 362 371 363 NC 32 27 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1115 1194 1144 1075 1036 980 1015 1084 1098 1110 1101 1118 1142 Capacity % TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD *Target Class Size Working Capacity - To Be Determined

19 KELLOGG HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT 6 318 275 290 302 270 269 260 251 277 283 277 289 301 7 295 327 273 286 304 291 280 267 258 284 291 285 298 8 349 303 330 258 288 302 296 280 268 259 286 293 286 Total 962 905 893 846 862 862 836 798 803 827 854 867 885 Capacity % TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD *Target Class Size Working Capacity - To Be Determined WILLOW CREEK HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT 6 363 332 335 343 345 361 346 341 357 365 358 373 389 7 339 347 331 331 339 330 355 337 334 349 357 350 365 8 323 323 351 324 309 332 333 338 329 326 341 349 342 NC 0 0 0 22 15 20 33 29 29 29 29 29 29 Total 1025 1002 1017 1020 1008 1043 1067 1045 1049 1069 1085 1101 1124 Capacity % TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD *Target Class Size Working Capacity - To Be Determined

20 APPENDIX 3 HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENTS & CAPACITY UTILIZATION ESTIMATES FOR INDIVIDUAL HIGH SCHOOLS & COMBINED SPECIAL SCHOOLS

21 CENTURY HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT 9 471 467 406 389 321 347 354 349 367 372 379 387 381 10 456 423 423 344 372 317 359 351 342 359 364 372 379 11 426 433 425 394 317 345 308 351 339 330 347 351 359 12 423 384 380 412 362 310 329 308 337 325 317 333 337 NC 24 22 5 0 0 0 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 Total 1800 1729 1639 1539 1372 1319 1371 1381 1406 1408 1429 1464 1477 Capacity % TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD *Target Class Size Working Capacity - To Be Determined JOHN MARSHALL HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT 9 421 442 513 454 448 409 414 384 415 420 429 437 430 10 419 349 363 425 419 395 410 408 363 392 397 405 413 11 378 383 323 334 399 420 386 392 391 347 375 380 388 12 330 353 341 282 324 407 385 357 363 362 322 348 352 Total 1548 1527 1540 1495 1590 1631 1595 1541 1531 1521 1523 1570 1583 Capacity % TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD *Target Class Size Working Capacity - To Be Determined

22 MAYO HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT 9 548 485 499 481 463 412 424 433 444 450 459 468 461 10 439 433 394 410 443 436 408 403 403 413 418 427 435 11 398 392 403 395 388 405 404 385 377 377 386 391 400 12 380 385 379 393 380 388 378 380 366 358 358 367 372 NC 12 18 8 16 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 1777 1713 1683 1695 1699 1641 1614 1601 1590 1598 1622 1653 1667 Capacity % TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD TBD *Target Class Size Working Capacity - To Be Determined SPECIAL SCHOOLS* HISTORICAL & PROJECTED STUDENT ENROLLMENT 6 0 2 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 15 15 11 10 12 7 5 4 7 7 7 7 7 8 23 23 25 27 21 13 15 12 17 18 18 18 19 9 46 31 38 58 51 25 17 30 32 32 33 33 34 10 39 49 35 44 47 55 44 47 46 46 46 47 48 11 53 64 54 47 55 81 86 70 70 70 71 73 73 12 90 102 115 130 150 163 228 244 260 277 295 314 334 Total 266 286 279 322 336 344 395 409 432 450 470 493 515 *Includes historical and projected numbers for Bridge, Burr Oak Phoenix, ESC ALC, RAMS, ALC 306, ALC 316, TAP and TLC