Edition December 20, 2017 WORLD Macroeconomic Scenario for 2018- This publication presents the economists' forecasts for interest rates, exchange rates and commodity prices, along with the Crédit Agricole Group's central economic projection. More information: Read our central economic projection in our quarterly publication Group Economic Research http://economic-research.credit-agricole.com
Interest rate forecasts Short-term interest rates 19-Dec Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Etats-Unis Fed funds 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.50 2.75 3M 0.00 1.60 1.60 1.85 1.85 2.10 2.35 2.60 2.60 2.85 Japon Call rate -0.05-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.05 3M 0.00-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.05-0.05 Eurozone Repo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 3M -0.33-0.30-0.30-0.30-0.30-0.30-0.30-0.30-0.15 0.00 United-Kingdom Base rate 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.00 3M 0.00 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 Sw eden Repo -0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.50-0.25-0.25 0.00 0.00 0.25 Norw ay Deposit 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.00 Canada Overnight 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.50 10Y rates 19-Dec Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 USA 2.44 2.40 2.50 2.60 2.70 2.80 2.90 3.00 3.05 3.10 Japan 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Eurozone (Germany) 0.37 0.45 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 United-Kingdom 1.21 1.30 1.40 1.50 1.60 1.70 1.70 1.80 1.90 2.00 Spread 10 ans / Bund France 0.33 0.35 0.40 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 Italy 1.52 1.65 2.25 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 Spain 1.09 1.25 1.50 1.30 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 Asia 19-Dec Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 China 1Y deposit rate 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 Hong Kong Base rate 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 2.75 3.00 India Repo rate 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 Indonesia 7D (reverse) repo rate 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 Korea Base rate 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 Malaysia OPR 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 Philippines Repo rate 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 Singapore 6M SOR 1.34 1.35 1.45 1.55 1.65 1.75 1.85 1.95 2.05 2.15 Taiw an Redisc 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.38 1.50 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 1.63 Thailand Repo 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 Vietnam Refinancing rate 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 Latin America Brazil Overnight/Selic 7.00 7.00 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 7.00 7.50 7.75 7.75 Mexico Overnight rate 7.25 7.25 7.50 7.50 7.25 5.75 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 Emerging Europe Czech Rep. 14D repo 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.50 Hungary Base rate 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 1.00 1.15 Poland 7D repo 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.75 1.75 Romania 2W repo 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.50 Russia 1W auction rate 7.75 8.00 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75 6.50 6.50 6.50 Turkey 1W repo rate 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 o/n lending rate 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 9.25 late liquidity rate 12.75 12.75 13.00 13.50 13.50 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.50 Africa & Middle East Africa & Middle East Repo 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.25 7.25 South Africa Repo 1.75 1.75 1.75 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.50 2.75 2.75 3.00 UAE Repo 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.25 2.25 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.00 3.25 20 December 2017-2 -
Exchange Rate Forecasts USD Exchange rate Industrialised countries 19-Dec Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Euro EUR/USD 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.20 1.22 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.26 1.27 Japan USD/JPY 113.0 113.0 110.0 114.0 116.0 114.0 114.0 114.0 112.0 110.0 United Kingdom GBP/USD 1.33 1.33 1.33 1.35 1.39 1.40 1.41 1.42 1.45 1.40 Sw itzerland USD/CHF 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.97 Canada USD/CAD 1.29 1.27 1.25 1.24 1.23 1.22 1.21 1.20 1.19 1.18 Australia AUD/USD 0.76 0.75 0.74 0.72 0.74 0.78 0.78 0.80 0.82 0.84 New Zealand NZD/USD 0.70 0.67 0.66 0.64 0.64 0.67 0.70 0.72 0.74 0.76 Euro Cross rates Industrialised countries Japan EUR/JPY 133 133 130 137 142 140 141 143 141 140 United Kingdom EUR/GBP 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.87 Sw itzerland EUR/CHF 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.18 1.18 1.19 1.20 1.20 1.21 1.23 Sw eden EUR/SEK 9.97 9.80 9.60 9.50 9.40 9.30 9.30 9.20 9.00 8.90 Norw ay EUR/NOK 9.90 9.70 9.60 9.40 9.30 9.20 9.20 9.20 9.00 8.80 Asia China USD/CNY 6.60 6.55 6.51 6.47 6.43 6.40 6.35 6.30 6.25 6.20 Hong Kong USD/HKD 7.82 7.82 7.85 7.85 7.85 7.85 7.82 7.80 7.80 7.80 India USD/INR 64.02 64.00 63.50 63.00 62.50 62.00 61.50 61.00 60.50 60.00 Indonesia USD/IDR 13575 13500 13440 13390 13330 13280 13250 13230 13200 13,150 Malaysia USD/MYR 4.08 4.10 4.07 4.05 4.02 3.99 3.98 3.97 3.96 3.95 Philippines USD/PHP 50.3 51.0 51.0 50.5 50.0 49.5 49.0 48.5 48.0 47.5 Singapore USD/SGD 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.34 1.34 1.33 1.33 1.32 1.32 1.31 South Korea USD/KRW 1085 1100 1130 1130 1110 1090 1080 1070 1060 1050 Taiw an USD/TWD 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 Thailand USD/THB 32.8 32.5 32.7 32.6 32.4 32.3 32.2 32.2 32.1 32.1 Vietnam USD/VND 22713 22700 22600 22500 22400 22300 22200 22100 22000 21,900 Latin America Brazil USD/BRL 3.30 3.20 3.30 3.45 3.50 3.30 3.30 3.25 3.20 3.10 Mexico USD/MXN 19.19 19.00 19.50 19.75 18.75 18.25 18.25 18.25 18.00 17.75 Africa South Africa USD/ZAR 12.75 13.95 14.20 14.40 14.50 14.60 14.75 14.85 14.95 15.10 Emerging europe Poland USD/PLN 3.56 3.55 3.53 3.45 3.38 3.33 3.31 3.30 3.29 3.27 Russia USD/RUB 58.81 58.00 57.50 57.50 58.00 59.00 59.50 60.00 60.50 61.00 Turkey USD/TRY 3.84 3.80 4.00 4.05 4.10 4.15 4.20 4.25 4.25 4.25 Central Europe Czech Rep. EUR/CZK 25.69 25.47 25.40 25.30 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 25.00 Hungary EUR/HUF 313 310 310 309 309 307 307 305 305 300 Poland EUR/PLN 4.20 4.19 4.17 4.14 4.12 4.10 4.10 4.12 4.14 4.15 Romania EUR/RON 4.62 4.62 4.65 4.65 4.65 4.65 4.60 4.60 4.60 4.60 20 December 2017-3 -
Economic Forecasts GDP (yoy, %) Consumer prices (yoy, %) Current account (% of GDP) 2017 2018 2017 2018 2017 2018 United States 2.3 2.4 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.8-2.5-2.5-2.6 Japan 1.8 1.6 1.6 0.5 0.7 1.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 Eurozone 2.4 2.3 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.2 3.1 3.1 3.3 Germany 2.6 2.6 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.3 7.7 7.6 7.3 France 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.2-1.6-1.0-0.9 Italy 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.9 2.1 1.8 1.8 Spain 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.1 1.4 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.5 Netherlands 3.3 2.8 2.4 1.3 1.6 1.3 9.2 7.8 7.5 Belgium 1.8 1.7 1.6 2.2 1.8 1.6-0.4-0.2-0.2 Other advanced United Kingdom 1.5 1.3 1.1 2.7 2.5 2.2-4.4-4.0-3.7 Canada 3.0 2.2 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.9-2.9-2.8-2.5 Australia 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.0 2.2 2.3-1.9-2.4-2.5 Sw itzerland 0.9 1.7 1.8 0.5 0.7 0.8 10.0 10.5 10.7 Sw eden 2.7 2.5 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.6 4.7 4.6 4.4 Norw ay 2.3 3.2 2.9 1.9 1.8 2.1 3.6 3.5 3.3 Asia 6.2 5.9 5.9 2.4 2.5 2.5 1.6 1.0 0.8 China 6.8 6.6 6.4 1.5 2.0 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 India 7.1 6.5 7.3 4.5 3.5 4.5-0.7-1.5-1.6 South Korea 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.0 1.9 2.0 5.5 5.5 5.5 Indonesia 5.1 5.2 5.3 3.8 4.0 3.8-1.5-1.7-1.8 Taiw an 2.5 2.0 2.0 0.6 1.2 1.5 13.0 12.0 12.0 Thailand 3.9 3.9 3.8 0.7 1.1 0.8 11.0 9.0 7.5 Malaysia 5.9 4.7 4.5 3.9 2.9 2.5 2.9 3.0 2.7 Singapore 3.3 2.5 2.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 19.1 18.2 18.8 Hongkong 3.4 2.5 2.5 1.5 2.5 2.3 4.3 3.0 3.0 Philippines 6.6 6.5 6.5 3.3 3.6 3.2-0.1 0.0 0.0 Vietnam 6.5 6.4 6.2 3.6 3.8 3.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 Latin America 1.5 2.6 2.8 6.5 4.9 4.4-1.7-2.2-2.7 Brazil 0.8 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.8 4.0-0.6-1.6-1.9 Mexico 2.0 1.9 2.1 5.7 3.3 3.2-1.6-1.8-3.2 Argentina 2.9 3.6 3.7 23.0 14.0 10.0-4.3-4.5-4.5 Colombia 1.6 2.7 2.3 3.3 3.2 3.2-3.7-3.3-3.0 Emerging Europe 3.5 2.8 2.5 5.6 5.0 4.8-0.3-0.3-0.4 Russia 2.0 1.7 1.4 4.4 4.0 4.0 2.2 2.0 1.8 Turkey 6.3 4.4 4.0 11.2 9.5 9.0-4.9-4.7-4.3 Poland 4.5 3.8 3.3 2.0 1.7 2.0-0.5-0.5-0.7 Czech Republic 4.4 3.2 3.0 2.5 2.3 2.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 Romania 6.8 4.2 3.8 1.3 3.6 3.1-2.7-2.9-3.1 Hungary 3.8 3.7 3.2 2.3 2.7 3.0 5.5 4.2 3.5 Ukraine 1.8 3.0 3.3 12.9 9.9 7.0-4.4-3.8-4.0 Africa, Middle East 2.2 3.1 3.2 7.7 6.5 6.1-1.1-0.6 0.1 Saudi Arabia -0.5 1.5 2.5-0.3 3.4 2.9 0.5 1.3 3.0 United Arab Emirates 2.0 3.0 3.1 2.0 3.1 3.0 3.8 3.0 3.5 South Africa 0.8 1.2 1.3 5.4 5.3 5.5-2.3-3.0-3.2 Egypt 4.0 4.1 4.3 28.6 14.4 12.0-6.0-4.1-3.3 Algeria 2.5 2.3 2.1 6.5 6.0 6.6-13.7-12.0-11.3 Qatar 1.5 2.0 2.2 0.7 3.0 2.8 1.0 1.5 2.8 Kow eit -1.2 2.7 3.0 2.2 3.3 3.5 2.7 3.5 4.9 Morocco 4.2 4.0 3.8 1.1 1.8 2.0-3.6-3.3-3.1 Tunisia 2.2 2.8 3.1 5.1 4.8 4.3-8.5-7.3-7.5 Total 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 Advanced economies 2.2 2.2 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 Emerging countries 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.0 3.7 3.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 20 December 2017-4 -
2016 2017 2018 Real GDP growth, QoQ % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 USA (annualised) 0.6 2.2 2.8 1.8 1.2 3.1 3.3 2.6 2.0 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.7 Japan 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.9 1.2-2.0 Eurozone 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Germany 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 France 0.6-0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Italy 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Spain 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 United Kingdom 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 2016 2017 2018 Consumer prices, YoY % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 USA 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.8 2.6 1.9 1.7 2.2 2.0 2.3 2.6 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.7 Japan -0.1-0.4-0.5-0.3 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 2.0 Eurozone 0.0-0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 Germany 0.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 France 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 Italy 0.0-0.3-0.1 0.2 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 Spain -0.8-1.0-0.3 0.8 2.7 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 United Kingdom 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 2.1 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2016 2017 2018 Unemployment rate, % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 USA 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.6 Japan 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 Eurozone 10.5 10.3 10.1 9.9 9.6 9.3 9.1 9.0 8.8 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.1 Germany 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 France 10.2 10.1 9.9 10.0 9.6 9.5 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.0 Italy 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.8 11.6 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.3 Spain 20.4 20.1 19.4 18.7 18.2 17.3 16.8 16.4 16.0 15.6 15.2 14.8 14.5 14.2 13.9 13.6 United Kingdom 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.5 20 December 2017-5 -
GDP (b) Private consumption (b) Public consumption (b) Investment (b) Exports (b) Imports (b) Net exports (a) Changes in inventories (a) Eurozone 2017 2.4 1.8 1.1 3.8 5.0 4.8 0.2 0.3 2018 2.3 1.7 0.9 4.5 4.8 4.9 0.1 0.3 1.8 1.5 0.8 3.6 4.2 4.4 0.1 0.4 Q3 2017 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.9 1.6 1.5 0.1 0.3 Q4 2017 0.7 0.5 0.3 1.1 1.4 1.3 0.1 0.3 Q1 2018 0.5 0.4 0.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.0 0.3 Q2 2018 0.5 0.4 0.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.3 Germany 2017 2.6 2.1 1.3 4.1 4.9 5.1 0.2 0.2 2018 2.6 1.9 0.9 3.6 4.6 4.2 0.5 0.2 1.9 1.6 0.8 3.1 3.9 4.0 0.2 0.0 Q3 2017 0.8 0.4-0.4 1.0 2.1 1.6 0.3 0.3 Q4 2017 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.1 Q1 2018 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 Q2 2018 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 France 2017 1.8 1.2 1.4 3.5 2.9 4.5-0.6 0.7 2018 1.7 1.6 1.1 3.4 3.8 4.7-0.4 0.2 1.6 1.4 0.9 3.2 4.0 4.3-0.3 0.1 Q3 2017 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.7 2.5-0.6 0.5 Q4 2017 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 Q1 2018 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.9 1.1-0.1 0.0 Q2 2018 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.9 0.9 1.1-0.1 0.0 Italy 2017 1.6 1.5 0.8 3.6 5.3 5.8 0.0-0.1 2018 1.6 1.1-0.2 8.1 5.6 7.0-0.3-0.1 1.1 0.9-0.7 4.8 5.1 5.7-0.1-0.1 Q3 2017 0.4 0.3 0.1 3.0 1.6 1.2 0.1-0.5 Q4 2017 0.5 0.3-0.1 2.2 1.5 2.1-0.1 0.1 Q1 2018 0.4 0.2-0.1 1.9 1.5 1.9-0.1 0.0 Q2 2018 0.4 0.3-0.1 1.7 1.4 1.7-0.1 0.0 Spain 2017 3.1 2.5 1.1 4.9 5.2 4.1 0.5 0.0 2018 2.7 2.3 1.0 4.0 4.6 4.1 0.4 0.0 2.3 2.0 1.1 3.7 4.2 4.2 0.2 0.0 Q3 2017 0.8 0.7 0.4 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Q4 2017 0.8 0.6 0.2 1.1 1.8 1.7 0.1 0.1 Q1 2018 0.7 0.6 0.2 1.1 1.5 1.3 0.1 0.0 Q2 2018 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.1-0.1 United Kingdom 2017 1.5 1.8 0.7 2.3 4.6 3.0 0.3-0.4 2018 1.3 1.4 1.5-1.0 3.9 3.1 0.2 0.0 1.1 1.5 1.6-2.0 4.4 3.6 0.1 0.0 Q3 2017 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2-0.7 1.1-0.5 0.2 Q4 2017 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 Q1 2018 0.3 0.3 0.4-0.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 Q2 2018 0.3 0.3 0.4-0.5 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 Netherlands 2017 3.3 2.3 1.0 6.1 5.9 5.3 1.1-0.3 2018 2.8 2.0 2.0 4.6 4.9 5.1 0.4 0.0 2.4 1.6 2.4 4.0 3.5 3.8 0.2 0.0 Q3 2017 0.4 0.6 0.0 2.0 1.7 1.7 0.2-0.4 Q4 2017 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 Q1 2018 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.4-0.1 0.1 Q2 2018 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.0 0.1 (a) contribution to GDP grow th (%, q/q) (b) q/q, % 20 December 2017-6 -
Commodities Price Forecasts 2017 2018 19-Dec Av. quarter price Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q5 Brent USD/BBL 64 55 55 54 52 55 52 54 57 60 2017 2018 19-Dec Precious metals Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Gold USD/oz 1,260 1,320 1,340 1,360 1,360 1,380 1,380 1,400 1,420 1,440 Public accounts Government balance (% of GDP) Public debt (% of GDP) 2017 2018 2017 2018 United States -3.5-3.4-4.4 81.3 78.6 80.4 Japan -5.3-4.0-3.4 240.5 238.6 233.8 Eurozone -1.2-1.1-0.9 89.9 88.5 86.1 Germany 0.5 0.3 0.3 66.3 64.0 61.8 France -2.9-2.8-3.1 96.8 97.0 97.4 Italy -2.1-1.7-1.6 132.2 131.2 130.3 Spain -3.1-2.4-1.7 98.6 97.5 95.9 Netherlands 0.7 0.5 1.0 58.4 55.6 52.2 Belgium -1.5-1.5-1.5 103.9 102.6 101.5 Greece -1.2 0.9 0.8 180.5 179.6 173.9 Ireland -0.4-0.2-0.2 70.1 68.7 66.4 Portugal -1.4-1.4-1.2 126.6 124.4 121.3 United Kingdom -2.1-1.9-1.5 86.5 85.2 84.2 Crédit Agricole S.A. Economic Research Department 12, place des États-Unis 92127 Montrouge Cedex Publication Manager: Isabelle JOB-BAZILLE Editor-in-Chief: Catherine LEBOUGRE Jean-François PAREN Armelle SARDA Production and Sub-Editor: Fabienne PESTY Contact: publication.eco@credit-agricole-sa.fr Consult Economic Research website and subscribe to our free online publications: Website: http://economic-research.credit-agricole.com ipad : Etudes ECO application available on App store platform Android: Etudes ECO application available on Google store platform This publication reflects the opinion of Crédit Agricole S.A. on the date of publication, unless otherwise specified (in the case of outside contributors). Such opinion is subject to change without notice. This publication is provided for informational purposes only. The information and analyses contained herein are not to be construed as an offer to sell or as a solicitation whatsoever. Crédit Agricole S.A. and its affiliates shall not be responsible in any manner for direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, however caused, arising therefrom. Crédit Agricole does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of such opinions, nor of the sources of information upon which they are based, although such sources of information are considered reliable. Crédit Agricole S.A. or its affiliates therefore shall not be responsible in any manner for direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, however caused, arising from the disclosure or use of the information contained in this publication. 20 December 2017-7 -