Indicator fact sheet TERM 2002 32 AC Size of the vehicle fleet Car ownership has grown rapidly in the ACs. The number of cars per capita grew from 146 to 223 cars per 1 000 inhabitants between 1990 and 1998 in the ACs (excluding Turkey). However, car ownership in the ACs was still between a third and half of that of the EU in 1998. Increasing private vehicle ownership has led to increased use of private vehicles and might have had the opposite effect on use of public transport. The number of trucks is strongly related to economic development. It has remained more or less stable per unit of GDP over the past decade, resulting in a 50 % increase. Figure 1: Development of the number of passenger cars, motorcycles and buses/coaches per capita and trucks per unit of GDP in AC-13 160 150 Cars per capita 140 Index (1990 = 100) 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 Buses / coaches per capita Trucks per unit of GDP (AC-11) Motorcycles per capita (AC-8) 60 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 NB: Motorcycles based on AC-8 (excluding the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia) and trucks based on AC-11 (excluding Bulgaria and Romania). Results and assessment Policy relevance There are no specific objectives or targets related to the size of the vehicle fleet. Policy objectives are rather set with respect to the average age and to the environmental performance of the fleets. Policy context Policies aimed at limiting the size and growth of the vehicle fleet might only be found in urban areas, where the number of motorised vehicles can give rise to environmental problems in terms of lack of space (see e.g. http://www.22september.org/info/en/qua.html). However, since there is a strong link between vehicle ownership and vehicle use, this indicator provides information about what is driving transport demand. Additionally, the total size of a vehicle 17-05-2003 1
fleet (combined with its average age see TERM 2002 33 AC Average age of the vehicle fleet) gives some indication on time needed for new technologies to penetrate into such fleets. Environmental context Vehicle ownership is closely related to vehicle use. The size of the privately owned vehicle fleet (cars and powered two-wheelers) is therefore an important driving factor behind road transport demand and the environmental pressures it causes. Assessment The vehicle fleet in the accession countries has grown tremendously since the fall of the Iron Curtain, reflecting significant changes in the structure of both passenger transport (from rail to private cars) and freight transport (from rail to trucks). The number of cars per capita grew from 146 to 223 cars per 1 000 inhabitants between 1990 and 1998 in AC-12 (excluding Turkey). In Turkey, the average motorisation level in the ACs was 161 in 1998. This is somewhat higher than one third of the EU-15 average (451) (Eurostat, 2001). An important factor behind car ownership levels is increasing GDP per capita. As income grows, more people can afford to buy a car (see Box 1). Moreover, in most of the accession countries, cars (especially western models) have been a symbol of wealth and freedom. The car is usually considered as the most comfortable, flexible and convenient transport mode, especially in those countries where public transport is not or is becoming less efficient. Other important factors influencing car ownership levels are listed below. The quality and availability of public transport: In general, public transport systems (railway, bus/coach, metro and tram) are suffering from deteriorating quality (especially in central and east European countries) and have rather old rolling stock and insufficient service and frequency. Consequently, public transport is in many cases not considered an attractive alternative for travelling. Urban sprawl: As towns become spread over larger land extensions, it becomes increasingly more difficult and costly to provide most people with accessible and convenient public transport alternatives. Therefore, cars may become in some cases the only definitely available option for travelling. The price of public transport versus private car transport: As for other public services, populations of central and east European countries in many cases experienced an abrupt change from a situation where prices were low, or services were even free, to a situation were governments had to introduce some partial cost recovery, which increased public transport prices considerably. Between 1990 and 1998, the number of motorcycles per capita decreased by 12 % in eight accession countries (all ACs excluding the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovakia) an opposite trend compared with the one registered in the EU Member States, where motorcycles per capita increased by about 14 %. UNECE data do not include mopeds, so it is not possible to show data on the whole group of powered two-wheelers (PTWs). The decrease in the number of motorcycles could be partially due to the replacement of motorcycles with cars as income grows. The number of trucks grew between 1990 and 1998, by 41 %, reflecting the growing trade in the AC itself and with other countries. However, until 1993, the number of trucks had remained stable. After that year, the total truck fleet grew by an average of 7.1 % per year, stimulated mainly by recovery of the economy. The total number of motor coaches, buses and trams in the ACs, excluding Turkey, is stable. Apparently Turkey, which had an increase of 76 % in the number of buses between 1990 and 1999, has more than half of the total number of motor coaches, buses and trams in all ACs. Other countries showing substantial increases in the size of bus/coach fleets are Bulgaria, Cyprus and Romania. Bulgaria and Romania have relatively low motorisation levels, and possibly higher dependency on public transport. Cyprus has no railway network: the only form of public transport on the island is bus. 17-05-2003 2
Sub-indicator: Car ownership per country The number of passenger cars per capita increased strongly in the ACs between 1990 and 1998, following economic growth. In some ACs, the number of passenger cars per capita is now close to the EU-15 average. In most countries, however, this number is still much lower than in the EU. Figure 2: Number of passenger cars per 1 000 inhabitants in all ACs in 1990 and 1999 AC-13 (1990/1998) EU-14 (1990/1998) Turkey (1990/1998) Romania Latvia Bulgaria (1990/1998) Hungary Slovakia Poland Lithuania Estonia Cyprus Czech Republic Slovenia Malta 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Cars per 1 000 inhabitants 1999 1990 NB: EU-14: all Member States excluding Germany. Assessment Between 1990 and 1999 Romania, Estonia and Lithuania registered the highest percentage increase in motorisation rates considerably above 100 %. In 1990, their motorisation rates were among the lowest in AC-13. Hungary and the Czech Republic had the lowest increase in AC-13. The relatively lower growth rate experienced in the Czech Republic is partly related to the relatively high car ownership starting level. In Hungary, high tax on motor fuels might have played a role in the low increase of car ownership. Slovenia and Malta had quite a relevant increase in car ownership levels from 1990 to 1999, although they already had relatively high car ownership levels in 1990. 17-05-2003 3
Sub-indicator: Truck fleet size per country The number of trucks per unit of GDP is much higher in the accession countries than in the EU, reflecting the high freight intensity (tonne-kilometres per unit of GDP) generally observed in these countries. Figure 3: Trucks per unit of GDP in 1999 Bulgaria Estonia Malta Latvia Lithuania Romania Cyprus Poland Slovakia Hungary Turkey Czech Republic Slovenia AC-13 EU-14 0 5 10 15 20 25 Number of trucks per million US dollars (constant 1995 prices) NB: EU-14: all Member States excluding Greece. Assessment for the sub-indicator The number of trucks per unit of GDP (truck intensity) is much higher in the accession countries than in the EU. A possible explanation for this could be the lower level of salaries in these countries (particularly in CEECs) with respect to EU Member States. As labour costs take a large share of total freight transport costs, lower salaries give a competitive advantage in providing international road freight transport services and, therefore, may have recently favoured the creation of a large number of transport firms leading to a large number of heavy goods vehicles owned by them. According to a pilot survey conducted by Eurostat (Eurostat, 1999), central and east European accession countries also have a relatively higher share of road freight transport carried out as own account (and correspondingly a lower share of hire and reward transport) compared to EU Member States. That could also suggest that these accession countries have a less efficient road freight transport system, with many fragmented transport operators using a relatively higher number of trucks. The high number of trucks per unit of GDP observed in the Baltic and south-east European States are related to low GDP levels and relatively high (road) freight transport intensity. Malta and Cyprus also show relatively high numbers of trucks per unit of GDP, which could be explained by the absence of alternative inland freight transport modes (there are no railways in Cyprus and Malta). Another possible explanation might be the high number of tourists visiting these small countries every year, leading to a relatively higher freight transport demand (EEA, 2001). In Lithuania and Slovakia, there was little increase in the number of trucks, reflecting a decrease in freight transport by road. The number of trucks in Latvia, Romania and Slovenia grew significantly (40, 43 and 49 % respectively), while freight transport demand by road decreased in those countries in the same period (minus 30, 46 and 31 % respectively). The size of the truck fleet in Malta more than doubled between 1990 and 1998. 17-05-2003 4
References EEA, 2001, personal communication with Mr H. Passades, Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Communications and Works, Cyprus. Eurostat, 1999, Statistics on transport of goods by road in the central European countries Results of the 1997 pilot surveys, Luxembourg, February 1999. Eurostat, 2001, Transport and environment: statistics for the transport and environment reporting mechanism (TERM) for the European Union, 2001, Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg. UNECE, 2001, Annual bulletin of transport statistics for Europe and North America, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, data received by e-mail, July 2001. World Bank, 2002, World development indicators 2002, World Bank national accounts data and OECD national accounts data files. Data Table 1: Number of passenger cars, motorcycles and buses/coaches per capita and trucks per unit of GDP in 1999 Passenger cars per capita Motorcycles per capita Buses/coaches per capita Trucks per unit of GDP (1998) Bulgaria (1998) 219.1 15.6 5.1 4.7 Cyprus 330.3 16.3 3.6 10.4 Czech Republic 334.5 33.6 1.9 1.7 Estonia 318.0 4.6 4.4 6.0 Hungary 224.1 8.7 1.8 2.4 Latvia 218.1 8.3 4.9 4.5 Lithuania 294.4 : 4.3 3.2 Malta 473.2 30.8 1.9 12.0 Poland 240.2 20.8 2.0 4.2 Romania 132.7 5.4 2.1 2.5 Slovakia 229.1 8.2 2.1 2.5 Slovenia 427.6 5.0 1.2 1.3 Turkey (1998) 59.5 14.6 5.0 2.0 AC-13 (1998) 161.0 17.0 3.4 2.8 NB: AC-13: Motorcycles per capita is in fact AC-13 except Lithuania. For Bulgaria, Turkey and AC-13, data are for 1998. For trucks, data are for 1998. File: TERM 2002 32 AC Size of the vehicle fleet.xls Metadata Technical information 1. Data source: UNECE, 2001. Values for EU Member States used throughout the text are from Eurostat (Eurostat, 2001). Values for EU Member States used in graphs are from UNECE, unless otherwise specified. World Bank, 2002 is used for GDP series for the accession and European countries. Eurostat, 2001, has been used for population data in Figure 4 for EU countries (since UNECE population data for EU Member States were not digitally available). 17-05-2003 5
2. Description of data: The number of passenger cars, powered two-wheelers (both mopeds and motorcycles), buses and trams, aircraft, rolling stock of railway companies, and bicycles are generally expressed as a number per 1 000 inhabitants, and the number of trucks per unit of GDP. 3. Geographical coverage: AC-13: Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey. 4. Temporal coverage: 1990 99. 5. Methodology and frequency of data collection: Data from UNECE are collected by a common questionnaire developed jointly by Eurostat, UNECE and ECMT. Data are collected annually. 6. Methodology of data manipulation, including making early estimates : None. Quality information 7. Strength and weakness (at data level): The statistics on size of the vehicle fleet are generally fairly reliable, though for some countries and some years values are missing or assumed unreliable. 8. Reliability, accuracy, robustness, uncertainty (at data level): Some missing data for countries and years and some strange values observed suggest that the data is not fully reliable and accurate. 9. Overall scoring (give 1 to 3 points: 1 = no major problems, 3 = major reservations): 2 Relevancy: 1 Accuracy: 2 (Data is not based on registrations, but calculated.) Comparability over time: 1 Comparability over space: 1 Further work required Procedures to deregister a vehicle due either to vehicle scrapping or to its export to a foreign country are not harmonised across different countries. Nor are they harmonised within the EU Member States or within the ACs. This may lead to some biased estimates of the actual number of vehicles in use (fleet size). Besides size, the average age of the vehicle fleet is of equal importance when looking at the environmental pressures it causes. Currently, little or no harmonised data across accession countries are available on average age, which hampers a full assessment of the environmental performance of the vehicle fleet. Moreover, the average age of public transport rolling stock gives some indication about the quality and comfort offered, though upgraded old rolling stock can provide high-quality and comfortable services. The number of bicycles can be used to estimate the number of passenger-kilometres by bicycle, for which no data are available. When assessing the modal split for short trips (for example in urban areas) the number of passenger-kilometres by bicycle can be significant. Box 1: Cars and GDP In Figure 4, GDP per head is plotted against car ownership level for all accession and European countries. The data show a positive and relatively sound correlation between GDP per capita and the number of passenger cars per 1 000 inhabitants. The data also suggest that the relationship between GDP and motorisation is steeper for lower-income levels and becomes progressively flatter as the GDP per capita grows. In other words, increasing GDP per capita will, when still relatively low, not result in high increases in car ownership. But there is a kind of GDP per head threshold not easily quantifiable after which increasingly more families can afford to purchase one or even more cars, and therefore the fleet grows rapidly in size. After that period, when most families own at least one car, further increases in GDP per capita will not lead to correspondingly high increases in the size of the fleet and car ownership. 17-05-2003 6
Figure 4: Motorisation and GDP per capita in all ACs and EU countries in 1998 600 Cars per capita 500 400 300 200 CZ EE LT BG PL SK LV HU MT SI PT CY GR ES IT UK IE FR BE SE NL FI DE AT DK 100 RO TR 0 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 GDP per capita Accession Countries EU Member States NB: GDP per capita in 1995 US dollars. Since Luxembourg has a very high GDP per capita, it is left out of the graph in order to be able to focus better on the remaining countries. Source: UNECE, 2001 (cars EU and AC, population AC); Eurostat, 2001 (population EU), World Bank, 2002 (GDP in USD and 1995 prices AC and EU). 17-05-2003 7