XXII Jornadas del Arroz Zaragoza (Spain) 9 th March 2016 EU RICE MARKET Damien PLAN European Commission DG AGRI
Contents 1. EU Rice - Overview 2. EU Rice Trade Imports/Exports 3. EU Rice Market 2015/16 situation
3.000 EU Rice Production < EU Rice Consumption : 1 Mio T deficit (at least) 2.500 2.000 1.500 Production ('000 t milled eq.) Domestic Use ('000t t milled eq.) 1.000 500 0 Production 1.7 Mio T Consumption 2.7 Mio T Imports 1 Mio T (milled eq) 3
EU Japonica Rice (short grain): Self-Sufficiency 1.400 1.200 1.000 800 600 400 200 0 Production ('000 t milled eq.) Domestic Use ('000t t milled eq.) Production 1.2 Mio T Domestic Use 1 Mio T Exports 0.2 Mio T (milled eq) 4
EU Indica Rice (long grain): Import Dependence 1.800 1.600 1.400 1.200 1.000 800 Production ('000 t milled eq.) Domestic Use ('000t t milled eq.) 600 400 200 0 Production 0.5 Mio T Domestic Use 1.5 Mio T Imports 1 Mio T (milled eq) 5
Contents 1. EU Rice - Overview 2. EU Rice Trade Imports/Exports 3. EU Rice Market 2015/16 situation
Total Total EU Rice EU Rice Imports Imports Imports - Overview overview 2014/15 Record : 1.193 Mio T milled eq., excl. broken 1 800 000 1 600 000 (broken rice imports: 340 000 tonnes) + 13% 1 400 000 1 200 000 1 000 000 800 000 Japonica Indica broken 600 000 400 000 200 000 0 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 ES 2014/15 Rice Imports EXTRA-EU: 52 824 T (4.5% total EU)
Total EU Rice Imports - Origin 2014/15: 1.193 Mio T milled eq., excl. broken Uruguay 2,4% United States 3,7% Guyana 5,9% Vietnam 2,0% Other 2,3% India 22,9% Myanmar 6,5% Pakistan 13,8% Cambodia 22,0% Thailand 18,5% 8
Total EU Rice Imports - Destination 2014/15: 1.193 Mio T milled eq., excl. broken ES 4.5% CZ 2,3% SE 2,5% PT 4,5% Other 7,3% UK 23,6% IT 6,8% DE 8,0% FR 17,2% NL 11,4% BE 11,7% 9
in tonnes milled eq. 600.000 EBA Imports Overview 2014/15 Record : 487 310 tonnes (+21%) incl. 344 210 tonnes milled rice eq. (+24%) and 143 100 tonnes broken rice (+14%) 500.000 paddy husked milled / semi-milled broken + 21% 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000-2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 ES 2014/15 Rice Imports from EBA: 20 902 T (4% total EU) 10
Total EU Rice Exports - Overview 2014/15 Record: 243 691 T milled eq., excl. broken 300 000 250 000 + 12% 200 000 150 000 Japonica Indica broken 100 000 50 000 0 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 ES 2014/15 Rice Exports EXTRA-EU: 35 992 T (15% total EU) 11
Total EU Rice Exports - Destination 2014/15 Record: 243 691 T milled eq., excl. broken Israel 1% Saudi Arabia Bosnia Herzegovina 2% 2% Canada 2% Norway 2% Serbia 3% Syria 4% Others 11% Turkey 42% Jordan 4% United States 5% Albania 6% Lebanon 7% Switzerland 9% 12
Total EU Rice Exports - Origin 2014/15 Record: 243 691 T milled eq., excl. broken UK 2% PT 7% FR 2% RO Others 4% 2% BG 8% IT 49% ELL 11% ES 15% 13
Contents 1. EU Rice - Overview 2. EU Rice Trade Imports/Exports 3. EU Rice Market 2015/16 situation
Area ('000 ha) EU Rice Area: + 5.5% increase in 2015 600 Japonica Indica Total 500 400 300 200 100-2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Total EU Rice Area 2015: 435 810 ha (+ 5.5% vs 2014) First increase in 4 years Contrast between Japonica (+18%) and Indica (-15%) 15
EU Rice Area per MS 300.000 250.000 200.000 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 Italy Spain Portugal Greece France Hungary Bulgaria Roumania 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Two major MS for rice: Italy (50% of EU) and Spain (30% of EU) ES 2015 rice area: 109 263 ha (+8% vs 2014) 16
EU Paddy Rice Production - 2015 3.500.000 3.000.000 2.500.000 2.000.000 1.500.000 Japonica Indica Total 1.000.000 500.000 0 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 Production 2015 : 3 Million tonnes paddy (+10.5%) First increase in 4 years 75% Japonica 25% Indica
2015 EU Rice Production / Member State : Spain 28% Portugal 6% Greece 9% France Hungary 3% <1% Bulgaria 2% Romania 2% Italy 50% Production 2015 : 3 Million tonnes paddy (1,7 Million tonnes in milled eq.) 75% Japonica 25% Indica 18
EU Total Rice Production 2015: + 10.5% 2015 EU paddy rice production: 3 016 000 tonnes (+10.5%) 2015 ES paddy rice production: 832 309 tonnes of paddy (+5%) (28% EU total)
EU Japonica Rice Production 2015: + 24% 2015 EU Japonica paddy production : 2 262 000 tonnes (+24%) 2015 ES Japonica paddy production : 476 258 tonnes (+10%) (21% EU total)
EU Indica Rice Production 2015: -16.5% 2015 EU Indica paddy production : 754 000 tonnes (-16.5%) 2015 ES Indica paddy production : 356 051 tonnes (- 1%) (47% EU total)
Spanish Paddy Rice Production 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 Japonica Indica 200.000 100.000 0 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2015/16: 832 309 tonnes of paddy (+5%) Japonica: 476 258 tonnes (+ 10% vs 2014) 57% of ES total Indica: 356 051 tonnes (- 1% vs 2014) 43% of ES total
/ton EU Rice Market Prices: recovery in 2015 450 400 IT Japonica - 380 350 300 ES Japonica - 320 ES Indica - 303 IT Indica - 290 250 200 sep-2013 dic-2013 mar-2014 jun-2014 sep-2014 dic-2014 mar-2015 jun-2015 sep-2015 dic-2015 mar-2016 Source: MS notifications
EURO/tonne EU Rice Market Prices: above average levels 400 380 360 340 320 320 309 IT japonica IT Indica ES Japonica ES Indica 332 Feb. 2016 IT Japonica 380 Feb. 2016 ES Japonica 320 300 280 260 291 281 267 298 295 280 291 278 266 279 263 Feb. 2016 ES Indica 303 Feb. 2016 IT Indica 290 240 250 255 220 200 2011-12' 2012-13' 2013-14' 2014-15'
Conclusions EU Rice Market 2015: EU paddy prices recovery (tight supply/demand early 2015) Good year for EU rice production : high area + good yields; sharp contrast Japonica (+24%) Indica (-17%) Record year for EU rice trade (record imports of Indica, record exports of Japonica) EU Rice Market 2016: Supply: high (Japonica: high production, Indica: high imports) Demand: to be seen (in particular Japonica exports) Prices: still above average levels
Thank you for your attention More information at: http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/cereals/index_en.htm Follow-up: damien.plan@ec.europa.eu