Economics of Integrating Renewables DAN HARMS MANAGER OF RATE, TECHNOLOGY & ENERGY POLICY SEPTEMBER 2017
Presentation Outline Understanding LPEA s expenses and what drives them Economics of net metering Economics of Purchased Power Agreements (PPAs) Economics of energy storage
Is it all about the Economics? No, but economics are definitely part of the answer Values need to be known for determining balance LPEA revenue comes from only one place: The Member LPEA s board of directors have the very hard job of determining what that proper balance is
Understanding LPEA s Expenses
LPEA Financials Annual report on LPEA s website http://www.lpea.com/pdf/annual_report /AnnualReport16.pdf Cost of Service studies are performed to assign expenses into expense groups and to customer classes
LPEA Total Expense Breakout Customer Basic facilities and services required to serve the member (metering, billing, customer service) LPEA Facilities (Demand) Facilities to serve required max load (substations, wires, poles, transformers) Purchased Power: Demand Expense associated with wholesale transmission and peak generation facilities Purchased Power: Energy Expense associated with fuel and base load generation Purchased Power Energy 36% Purchased Power Demand 27% Customer 9% LPEA Facilities 28%
MW Expenses Drivers Customer Driven by number of customers. Nearly identical for each residential customer. LPEA Demand Driven largely by customer load at time of LPEA s system peak Purchased Power: Demand Driven by customer load at time of LPEA peak during the peak period Purchased Power: Energy Expense associated with fuel and base load generation 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 Total System Loading Peak Period 0 4 8 12 16 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 0 Peak Winter Peak Period Hour Peak Summer Peak Period
MW Solar Availability Winter Loading and Solar 120% 140 120 100 Peak Time 12/26/17 6:30 pm 100% 80% 80 60% 60 40 0% coincident with winter peak loading 40% 20 20% 0 0 4 8 12 16 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 Hour 0% Peak Winter Load Winter Solar Production
MW Solar Availability Summer Loading and Solar 140 Peak Time 06/19/17 6:30 pm 120% 120 100% 100 80% 80 60 18% coincident with summer peak loading 60% 40% 40 20 20% 0 0 4 8 12 16 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 0% Hour Peak Summer Load Summer Solar Production
12 Months Actual Coincidence Data Month Date / Time of Peak % Solar Available Aug-17 08/31/17 5:00 pm 53% Jul-17 07/05/17 5:00 pm 18% Jun-17 06/20/17 6:30 pm 18% May-17 05/18/17 9:00 pm 0% Apr-17 04/03/17 8:00 pm 0% Mar-17 03/06/17 7:00 pm 0% Feb-17 02/06/17 7:00 pm 0% Jan-17 01/25/17 7:00 pm 0% Dec-16 12/26/16 6:30 pm 0% Nov-16 11/30/16 6:30 pm 0% Oct-16 10/06/16 8:00 pm 0% Sep-16 09/19/16 8:00 pm 0% Average Availability 7%
Net Metering Economics
Residential Expenses Vs Total Expenses Total Expense Breakout Residential Expense Breakout Purchased Power Energy 36% Customer 9% LPEA Facilities 28% Purchased Power Energy 28% Customer 17% Purchased Power Demand 27% Purchased Power Demand 21% LPEA Demand 34%
Monthly Residential Expenses Typical Member (654 kwh) High Usage Member (1,848 kwh) Low Usage Member (273 kwh) Solar Member (0 kwh) Customer $16.44 $16.44 $16.44 $16.44 LPEA Demand $33.56 $64.35 $26.85 $33.56 Pur Pwr Demand $21.27 $63.82 $11.60 $19.78 Pur Pwr Energy $27.49 $77.69 $11.47 $0 Total Expenses $98.76 $222.30 $66.36 $69.78
Monthly Residential Expenses and Revenues Typical Member (654 kwh) High Usage Member (1,848 kwh) Low Usage Member (273 kwh) Solar Member (0 kwh) Total Expenses $98.76 $222.30 $66.36 $69.78 Standard Revenue $103.66 $253.55 $55.75 $21.50 Standard Margin $4.90 4.7% $31.25 12% -$10.61-19% -$48.28-225%
Net Metering Economics Summary If a typical 654 kwh member net meters with 100% solar LPEA expenses decrease by $28.98 LPEA revenues decrease by $82.16 Net impact to LPEA is loss of $53.18 or $0.081/kWh LPEA currently net meters 10 million kwh annually Impact from net metering is $810,000 annually LPEA rates are currently 0.8% higher to accommodate current net metering practices
Purchased Power Agreement (PPA) Economics
Solar PPAs LPEA has limited ability to purchase power outside of its all requirements contract the 5% LPEA independently negotiates a PPA with a solar producer LPEA is compensated for the power it purchases through bill crediting tables Bill credit for 2017 averages to $0.047 per kwh Current credit table increases at an average of 2.7% annually over a 10 year period
Impact of Solar PPAs to LPEA PPAs can have a variety of compensation frameworks Flat rate over the term of the agreement Initial rate that increases over time Although LPEA technically has a PPA with the solar gardens, it is only for the unsubscribed capacity LPEA has one solar PPA it actively makes payments on Flat rate projected to keep LPEA whole over the term of the agreement
MW Solar to Serve Daytime Load 140 120 100 80 60 Feasible if well distributed Kit Carson approach Would off-set 25% of LPEA s energy needs 40 20 0 0 4 8 12 16 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 Hour Peak Winter Load 120 MW of Solar
The Rough Numbers Cost of 120MW of solar if at $2 per watt: $240 million Annual savings at $0.042 per kwh: $9.2 million $0.042 would be LPEA s avoided cost at current wholesale rate Current wholesale rate structure may not be sustainable if members installed this quantity of solar Generation avoided cost would be closer to $0.025/kWh Annual savings at $0.025 per kwh: $5.5 million
A Peek into Energy Storage
Energy Storage Technologies Power and Capacity http://energystoragesense.com
Non-Scientific Lithium-ion Pricing Projections In early 2017, LPEA received estimates for turnkey energy storage projects at $600/kWh Cost of batteries were approximately $300/kWh Balance of system costs were and additional $300/kWh Battery pricing forecasted to be $120/kWh by 2030 Turnkey projects could be $300/kWh by 2030 For comparison Electric Thermal Storage heaters costs $33/kWh Electric Water Heater costs $75/kWh
MW Solar to Serve Daytime Load 140 120 100 Energy Storage Needed 80 60 40 20 0 0 4 8 12 16 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 Hour 80MW / 420MWh of Energy Storage Peak Winter Load 120MW of Solar
Daytime Solar - Rough Numbers Cost of 420 MWh of energy storage if at $300 per kwh: $126 million Plus the $240 million cost of solar: $366 million Annual savings from LPEA avoid cost: $28 million Now includes 80 MW of demand savings Wholesale rate structure likely not sustainable if members installed this quantity of energy storage 33 MW of levelized demand reduction Savings at realistic avoided cost: $9.6 million? Battery life with daily cycles: 7-10 years
MW Solar to Serve 100% of LPEA Load 600 500 400 300 200 Not feasible without 2,500 MWh of energy storage located near solar Dispatchable generation or 3 times more energy storage needed for cloudy days 100 0 0 4 8 12 16 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 0 4 8 12 16 20 Hour Peak Winter Load 600 MW of Solar
100% Solar Considerations LPEA loads are 15% higher in winter PV panels could be mounted to maximize winter production Oversize by 20% to account for remaining seasonal variations No infrastructure improvements for capacity considered Not inclusive of redundancy needs for reliability Single axis tracking considered (added $0.30 per watt)
100% Solar Rough Numbers Cost of 600 MW of solar if at $2.30 per watt: $1.38 billion Annual carrying cost based on 25 yr. life: ~$138 million Cost of 2,500 MWh of energy storage if at $300 per kwh: $750 million Annual carrying cost based on 10 yr. life: ~$120 million Addressing cloudy weather At least 7,500 MWh of additional energy storage needed ($2.3 billion) Or 150 MW combustion turbine costing $150 million Rarely used LPEA would avoid paying $67 million for purchased power
100% Solar Summary Using Current Power Supply LPEA Internal Expenses LPEA Current Cost of Power TOTAL $40 million $67 million $107 million Alternative Power Supply Option LPEA Internal Expenses $40 million 600 MW Solar (annual carrying cost) $138 million 2500 MWh Solar (annual carrying cost) $120 million Combustion Turbine (annual carrying cost) $5 million TOTAL $303 million Alternative Power Supply Option is based on extremely optimistic numbers Actual values would likely be higher
Summary Energy is cheap relative to cost of facilities Of the $0.154/kWh a resident pays on average for electricity $0.042/kWh goes toward the production of energy $0.025/kWh is the cost of fuel and running the generators Net Metering LPEA supports net metering through an $0.081/kWh incentive Annual cost to membership is $810,000 (0.8% of their electric bill)
Summary (cont.) Purchased Power Agreements Can be beneficial if agreed payment is at or below expense offset ($0.025/kWh to $0.047/kWh) Addition 5% headroom necessary for $0.047/kWh incentive rate Current QF ruling needs to stay in place for $0.042/kWh rate Transforming solar into a dispatchable resource Even at optimistic projections, feasibility is questionable LPEA s load profile is largely opposite of a solar generation profile
Thank You Questions?