AUTOMOTIVE Outlook for North American Production 9 September 2016 Detroit, Michigan Joe Langley, Principal Analyst, Automotive +1 248 465 2845, joe.langley@ihsmarkit.com. All Rights Reserved.
Automotive Conference Detroit 8 September 2016
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North America production Millions 18.5 18.0 17.5 17.0 16.5 16.0 18.1 18.2 18.0 17.5 2.7% 2.9% 0.7% 0.3% 2015 2016 2017 2018 Y/Y % Change Production Issues Inventory Incentives Fleet Product age Product mix Retooling Outcomes Lower volume Downtime Sourcing shifts
Automotive Conference Detroit 8 September 2016
North America production Millions 18.5 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.0 17.5 17.5 17.8 17.0 17.3 16.5 16.7 16.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Legacy Production Production 1.4 Million Growth drivers 36 new programs All-new = 26 Unproven Segment squeeze Onshoring = 10 Proven Less risk Car = 47% Truck = 4% Utility = 49%
All-new programs Thousands 750 500 250 0 US3 Asian4 German3 Other 2016 2017 2018 Domestic New = 9 Redesigns = 31 Utilities Offshoring X Transplants New = 27 Redesigns = 18 Portfolio expansion Onshoring Diversity
Automotive Conference Detroit 8 September 2016
North America production Millions 18.5 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.0 17.5 17.5 17.9 17.9 18.0 17.0 16.5 Quality vs Quantity 16.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Downside Production 2016-50,000 units Inventory 2017-200,000 units Inventory 2018-200,000 units Delays Sourcing
Automotive Conference Detroit 8 September 2016
Union negotiations General Motors 2,000 per day Oshawa Ford 1,000 per day Oakville Strike 5,500 units per day Fiat Chrysler Automobiles 2,500 per day Brampton Windsor
Automotive Conference Detroit 8 September 2016
North America production 30% 20% 15% 54% Domestic Inventory Offshoring Cars Discontinuations 10% 0% -10% 2.8% -5.3% US3 Asian4 German3 Other 2016 2017 2018 Transplants Onshoring Portfolio expansion Trucks Exports
US Big-Three manufacturers Thousands 300 200 100 0-100 -200-300 GM Ford FCA 2016 2017 2018 Issues Inventory Incentives Fleet Age = 55 months Actions Launches = 31 Redesigns Missed targets Offshoring FCA: Dart and 200
Asian four manufacturers Thousands 300 200 100 0-100 -200-300 Toyota Honda Nissan Hyundai 2016 2017 2018 Issues Product mix Incentives Fleet Age = 40 months Actions Launches = 22 Localization Exports Capacity Hyundai: Expansion
German three manufacturers Thousands 300 200 100 0-100 -200-300 Volkswagen BMW Daimler 2016 2017 2018 Issues Exports Offshoring Growth targets Age = 51 months Actions Launches = 10 Redesigns Localization VW: Expansion COMPAS
Other manufacturers Thousands 300 200 100 0-100 -200-300 Subaru Mazda Tesla 2016 2017 2018 Issues Size and scale Cars Exports Age = 29 months Actions Launches = 7 All-new vehicles Tesla: Model 3 Subaru: Impreza
Car Thousands 300 200 100 0-100 -200-300 US3 A4 G3 O 2016 2017 2018 Upside Ford Focus Ford Mustang Honda Civic Nissan Sentra Nissan Versa Downside Dodge Charger Chevrolet Camaro Chevrolet Cruze Chevrolet Malibu Toyota Camry
Truck Thousands 300 200 100 0-100 -200-300 US3 A4 G3 O 2016 2017 2018 Upside GM-K2XX Pickup Nissan Frontier Ram ProMaster Toyota Tacoma Toyota Tundra Downside Ford F-150 Ford Transit GM-31XX GM-GMT610 Ram Pickup
Utility Thousands 300 200 100 0-100 -200-300 US3 A4 G3 O 2016 2017 2018 Upside GMC Terrain Honda CR-V Honda Pilot Nissan Kicks Volkswagen Tiguan Downside Chrysler Pacifica Dodge Journey Ford Explorer Jeep Grand Cherokee Nissan Pathfinder
Disruptive Toyota Honda Nissan Ford BMW Volkswagen Chevrolet Audi Lexus Mazda 138
New mobility manufacturers 600 500 400 300 Tesla Model 3 Issues Tesla Atieva Faraday Apple Google When? 200 100 0 2007 2012 2017 2022 NA Production Actions Conquest dependent Financial hurdles Size and scale Technology risk Competition
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