Otto-, Driving Wege Diesel- zur without COoder fire Elektromotor? 2 -freien Mobilität wer macht das Rennen? Dr. Rolf Leonhard Dr. Rolf Leonhard Robert Bosch GmbH Robert Bosch GmbH 1 May 29 th, 2013 14. Sächsisches 2 nd März 2012 Kfz-Innung Fachsymposium Stuttgart ENERGIE 2013 Dr. Rolf Leonhard Dresden Conference >>FUTURE ENERGY<< BMS Leonhard Dresden, 18.11.2013 Robert 18.11.2013 Bosch GmbH 2013. All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal, exploitation, reproduction, editing,
Ways to CO 2 free mobility 1 Mobility challenges 2 Driving with fire 3 Electric driving 4 Electrofuels 4 Conclusions 2
Mobility challenges The Party s over Crude Erdölförderung Oil Extraction in Exa EJ/a Joule/a 300 250 200 150 100 50 Peak Oil Odell Medium Scenario Campbell Beyond Oil 3 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Jahr
Mobility challenges Contributions to greenhouse gas reduction Comitted target: not to exceed 2 o global warming 4 Source: M. Meinshausen, based on UNEP Human Development Report 2009
Mobility challenges Energy Roadmap 2050, EU-Commission Dec 15 th, 2011 100% Greenhouse gas abatement 100% 80% Power Sector Current policy 80% 60% Residential & Tertiary 60% Industry 40% 40% 20% 0% Transport Non CO 2 Agriculture Non CO 2 Other Sectors PC 10% of total GHG CV 5% Air 3% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 20% 0% -63% vs 1990-70% vs 2010 5
Mobility challenges Energy consumption of traffic in/from Germany 800 TWh 600 400 200 Intern. Shipping w/ ww share of 10% in 2010 not included in national CO 2 reportings. Volume and groth rate similiar to Aviation. + 200% + 140% traffifc volume 2030 vs 2000 +20% aircraft ship rail CV PC Diesel PC Gasoline Motorcycles MC&PC Road Total Spalte1 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 E-mobility not sufficient to achieve CO 2 targets for traffic sector 6 Source 1960-2030: IFEU, Tremod 5.2
Mobility challenges CO 2 emission of new released cars CO2 emissions [g/km] 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25-35% -53% -65% -85% 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 130? Actual proposal of german government: 95 g/km by 2024 95? 70 ACEA targets GER calculated GER EU15,EU27 EU legislation/targets VDA targets EU 2050: -70% to 2010 without and with mileage compensation 42 28 Source:s: EU-COM Report 2010-655; 10.11.2010, DLR: Flottenverbrauch 2010, Jul. 2002 7
Mobility challenges Market development Mio new released passenger cars and light vehicles <6t 7.8 51.4 78 104 115 76.7 EV: 0.1 HEV/PHEV: 1.1 22.2 55.4 EV: 1.2 HEV/PHEV: 4.0 27.6 57.2 98.4 103.3 EV: 2.5 PHEV: 3.1 HEV: 6.5 EV PHEV HEV CNG/LPG GDI PFI Diesel Pure ICE 17.8 23.7 27.0 2011 2015 2020 +2.4 mio EV + 10.9 mio electric engines + 34.6 mio combustion engines 8
Mobility challenges Expected CO 2 reduction until 2020 EU CO 2 Emissions [g/km] 150 140 130 120 110 100 140 g/km 4 * 10 ** EV + PHEV Vehicles with ICE 41 * 35 ** * 2.2% EV and 2.7% PHEV in 2020 ** 5.5% EV and 6.8% PHEV in 2020 target: 95 g/km -32 % 0 EU fleet 2010 EU fleet 2020 ICE-powertrain measures have to contribute 80 to 90% to CO 2 -reduction 9
Ways to CO 2 free mobility 1 Mobility challenges 2 Driving with fire 3 Electric driving 4 Electrofuels 4 Conclusions 10
Driving with fire CO 2 reduction by engine & vehicle technology CO 2 emissions [g/km] 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 G0 G2 7.7 5.5 4.7 G2H l/100km Powertrain 4.4 3.8 l/100km Vehicle Petrol technology 2013: Golf VII TDI Blue Motion 85g/km D0 D3 5.4 3.5 3.2 D3H l/100km Powertrain EU 2000 EU 2010 EU 2015 EU 2020 2.9 2.6 l/100km Vehicle Diesel technology 172 140 130 95* 70* Vehicle Measurements Roll resistance tires f R : -1/3 Weight: -10 % Aerodynamic (c w ): -14 % G0 PFI G2 Downsizing (DI) G2H Hybrid D0 DI (Common Rail) D3 Downsizing+DeNOx D3H Hybrid Gasoline Diesel Vehicle Weight 1400 kg, 100 kw, NEDC Hybrid w/ Automatic Transmission ICE-Age Scenario is sufficient to achieve 95 g CO 2 /km in 2020! 11 Source: Bosch Engine Press Colloquium June 2009
Driving with fire Approching 50g/km CO 2, EU 200 Petrol Diesel 160 DI, Start/Stop Hybrid Downsizing, Start/Stop, DeNO X 50% Diesel Hybrid CO 2 Emissions [g/km] 120 80 Combustion control Waste heat recovery DeNO X >80% Variable valve train Advanced Dieselhybrid 40 0 Compact class vehicle (1,400kg), 100kW, NEDC 12
Driving with fire CO 2 of vehicle population 100% Energy content 100% CO 2 /km incl. fuel production 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 30% Biofuels (60% CO2 benefit) 40% 30% Efficiency of drivetrain 20% 10% according to legislation 20% 10% + Driving resistance + Biofuels New releases EU 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 13
Ways to CO 2 free mobility 1 Mobility challenges 2 Driving with fire 3 Electric driving 4 Electrofuels 4 Conclusions 14
Electric driving Recharging - Chance to slow up Energy flow 24,000 kw 10 kw Energy/min. 400 kwh (40l) 0,17 kwh Range (1 min) 800 km 1 km Range (1 h) 48,000 km 60 km 15,000 km < 20 min > 10 d 15
Electric driving Energy chain under real driving conditions 1) 175% battery 100% wheel drive drive train efficiency 89% 35% auxillaries 28% battery & inverter 12% dissipation 57% 150% battery 100% wheel drive drive train efficiency 93% 30% auxillaries 12% battery & inverter 8% dissipation 2010 2060 67% 350 % fuel tank 100% wheel drive drive train efficiency 31% 25% auxillaries 225% dissipation 29% 100% wheel drive 57% 175% fuel tank drive train efficiency 64% 20% auxillaries 55% dissipation 1) ambient temp. 10 o C, avrg. speed 60 km/h; heating at 0 o C/-10 o C is 60%/100% of wheel drive. source: Spicher, U., 7. MTZ-Fachtagung 24., 25. 01.2012 16
Electric driving CO 2 of vehicle population 100% Energy content 100% CO 2 /km incl. fuel/power prod. 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% Biofuels 50% 40% EV + PHEV/2 share 40% 30% Öko-Institut CO2-ratio EV/ICE 30% Efficiency of drivetrain + Driving resistance 20% 10% 1 mio EV, 2,3% veh. share 20% 10% + Biofuels + Electric Driving New releases EU 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 17
Ways to CO 2 free mobility 1 Mobility challenges 2 Driving with fire 3 Electric driving 4 Electrofuels 4 Conclusions 18
Electrofuels Storing electrical energy as liquid or gas fuels Electrofuels are an emerging class of carbon-neutral drop-in replacement fuels that are made by storing electrical energy from renewable sources in the chemical bonds of liquid or gas fuels. The primary targets are butanol, biodiesel, and hydrogen, but include other alcohols and carboncontaining gases such as methane and butane. Source: wikipedia.com May 14 th, 2012 Categories of Electrofuels: - Power to Gas, PtG Hydrogen, Methane, e-gas, Windgas SNG: Substitute Natural Gas - Power to Liquid, PtL Methanol, Paraffins: Gasoline, Diesel 19
Electrofuels Assessment of synthetic fuels high Mass market Technical mass potential low Technical maturity level Niche market R&D Mass production 20 Source: Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH @ FVV 03.05.2013
Electrofuels Fuel cost vs cost of CO 2 and H 2 input 5,00 fuel cost ( /10/kWh) ( / l Diesel) 4,50 4,00 3,50 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00 0,95 /l Sunfire GmbH, Dresden Fraunhofer Tagung Energie, Dresden 05.2013 biogas flue-capture??? air-capture??? 0 200 400 600 700 CO 2 capture cost ( /t) 9 /kg H2, 27ct/kWh 6 /kg H2, 18ct/kWh 3 /kg H2, 9ct/kWh cost for fuel synthesis not included, but loss of heat content 1) source: T. Smolinka, Günther, M., (Fraunhofer ISE), Garche, J. (FCBAT): NOW-Studie, Rev. 1, 05.07.2011 21
Passenger cars CO 2 of vehicle population: measures combined 100% Energy content 100% CO 2 /km incl. fuel/power prod. 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% Biofuels 50% 40% Electrofuels 40% 30% 20% EV + PHEV/2 share CO2-ratio EV/ICE 30% 20% Efficiency of drivetrain + Driving resistance + Biofuels + Electrofuels 10% 10% + Electric Driving New releases EU 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 0% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 22
Passenger cars Energy split for 85% CO 2 reduction 2010 2060 Energy consumption -62 % 420 TWh 160 TWh Primary energy -52 % fp=1,16 fp=2,0 fp = primary energy factor 500 TWh fp=1,33 240 TWh Fossil fuel Biofuel Electrofuel Power 23
Ways to CO 2 free mobility 1 Mobility challenges 2 Driving with fire 3 Electric driving 4 Electrofuels 4 Conclusions 24
Ways to CO 2 free mobility Ways to CO 2 -free mobility Electricity Battery Fuel Cell O 2 + 2H 2 2H 2 O Fuels Biomass Vegetable oils Ethanol Vegatable garbage Alga electricity overrun from renewable energy sources CO 2 Recycling CO 2 + 2H 2 2H 2 O + CH 4 3CO 2 + 3H 2 H 2 O + CH 3 OH nco 2 + (2n+1)H 2 nh 2 O + C n H 2n+1 + O 2 Technical Photosynthesis 25
Wege zur CO 2 -freien Mobilität Dr. Rolf Leonhard Robert Bosch GmbH Danke für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit 26 Sächsisches Fachsymposium ENERGIE 2013 Dresden, 18.11.2013