Transformation of Supply & Value Chain in the Oil & Gas sector [ Review & Analysis ] Iraq Energy Forum 2017 Dr Husain Al-Chalabi
Outlook for Oil and Gas in the Energy & non- Energy uses [e.g. Synthetic Polymers, road paving, etc.. ] 1. Introduction 2. Energy Balances and the future of renewables 3. Projected adaptation in the Supply Chains of Oil and Gas to the changing market conditions 4. Role of Natural gas in supporting oil refining for clean fuels and petrochemicals 5. Active projects in the region since January 2016 6. Deliberation on the role of Iraq s gas in the future petrochemical Industry. 7. Concluding remarks
Introduction Historical Events:- At the turn of the 20 th Century, crude oil was used for fuel & lighting [ Kerosene lamps ]. Organic chemicals were then produced from sources such as coal, vegetable and animals. Today more than 92% of the organic chemicals are sourced from processing crude oil and natural gas and referred to as Petrochemicals. The production of Petrochemicals, especially in Europe, remained small until the 1950s, mainly because the refineries were then cited next to oil fields. The 1950s witnessed high demand for organic chemicals ; but it was difficult to satisfy the market from the traditional sources of raw material, while the alternate feedstocks such as naphtha and gasoil were increasingly available. There was a decline in petrochemical production and closure of facilities in Europe, in the early 1980s, which was mainly due to attractiveness of producing the petrochemicals from the associated gas as well as newly industrialized countries developing their own petrochemical plants. Petrochemical industries were able to deliver products much cheaper due to innovation / technology and the use of larger plants [ economy of scale]. In the 19 th Century, long before petroleum was used for production of organic chemicals, the Russian Chemist Mendeleev [ known for the Periodic table born 1834/ died 1907 ] said :- oil is too valuable to burn. More than 120 years later, the oil & gas became the main source of Petrochemicals ; but still large part of the this hydrocarbon source is being burnt!!!.
Oil & Gas in the Energy Balance
World Energy Balance Year 2014 Source - IEA
UK- Energy Flow Chart Final Consumption Source- UK Government Supply
Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) The Economist February 25 th -March 3 rd 2017:-Clean energy s dirty secret :- From being peripheral to the energy system just over a decade ago, they are now growing faster than any other energy source and their falling costs are making them competitive with fossil fuels. There is a $20 trn hitch, though. To get from here to there requires huge amount of investment over the next few decades, to replace old smog belching power plants and to upgrade the pylons and wires that bring electricity to consumers. Yet green energy has a dirty secret. The more it is deployed, the more it lowers the price of power from any source. That makes it hard to manage the transition to a carbon free future, during which generating technologies, clean and dirty, need to remain profitable if the lights are to stay on. Source IEA
Complex Network of hardware to bring Oil & Gas from Underground reservoirs to Market [ wells, flowlines, processing facilities, pipelines, terminals, sales point ] Source - Shell
Remarks Relevant to Iraq Iraq is very conscious of 2 things :- Want to increase oil production to reap higher economic return [ net revenue = volume X price - costs] to catalyse the socio- economic development plan ; with the consequence of increased gas production. Want to minimize the economically wasteful Flaring of gas and comply with the environmental practices. The views of increasing oil [and hence the associated gas ] production while combating the gas Flaring, via absorption capabilities & diversification [ that generates the maximum benefit to Iraq], has been endorsed by energy experts and strategic planners. Gas is the Fuel of choice for the highly developed nations, so with a vision to see Iraq in that category, we need to make sure that the priority for gas is for Iraq. From energy content standpoint, equating Fuel oil @ 40 $/Bbl [ with assumed price typically = 80% of the crude oil at 50$/Bbl ] natural gas value is about 7.9 $/ million Btu. Remembering that Gas is a depleting resource, adds to the Challenges of the Decision makers. The priority is to communicate and harmonize the value added projects of the socio economic plan with the productivity and sustainability refining / petrochemical projects to provide the needed incremental investment for progressing further down the value chain.
Crude Oil for Domestic Refineries Countries with a limited access to a shore line for import / export of refinery products, their Domestic refineries often find themselves creating more value [i.e. more profitable] when they configure their asset to maximize domestic sales.
Typical Supply Chain rude Oil Retail Markets IHRDC
Iraq Gas potential Iraq's Gas fields and reservoirs:- Total proven gas reserves 112 TCF [ 3.1 TCM ] = associated gas +free gas +cap gas associated gas = 70% Free gas = 20% Cap gas [ in certain oil fields ] = 10% Geographical distribution of gas reserves:- 83% of associated gas in the South ; 17% in the North
Gas Value Chain For Illustration
Processing of Rich Gas For Illustration
Global Outlook - IEA Predicts a Drop in surplus - Source- ( Upstream ) May 2016
Investment highlights - 2016 Global energy investment in 2015 amounted to United States dollar (USD) 1.8 trillion, down 8% (in real terms) from 2014 mainly due to a sharp fall in upstream oil and gas investment. Fossil fuels continue to dominate energy supply, but the composition of investment flows points towards a reorientation of the energy system. Upstream oil investment remained robust in the Russian Federation (hereafter, Russia ) and the Middle East, helping to push up the share of national oil companies (which dominate production in those regions) in oil and gas upstream investment to an all-time high of 44%. The impact of low oil prices on cash flow tested the debt-financed investment model of the US shale oil industry, leading to a particularly sharp fall in investment of 52% in that sector in the past two years. Unit capital costs of supply declined across the energy spectrum, with average cost reductions in 2015 ranging from 3% in the case of onshore wind to 30% for US shale oil and gas. Cost deflation, efficiency improvements and reduced activity levels are the key contributors to the steep fall of upstream oil and gas costs, but this trend may not be sustainable in the case that demand for services and equipment picks up rapidly. Energy efficiency investment increased by 6% in 2015 despite falling energy prices. Nevertheless, low oil prices risk derailing fuel efficiency improvements in the transport sector, especially in countries with low taxes. A major shift in investment towards low-carbon sources of power generation is underway. New low-carbon generation renewables and nuclear from capacity coming online in 2015 exceeds the entire growth of global power demand in that year. Higher fuel transportation costs and infrastructure bottlenecks are limiting the competitiveness of gas-fired power generation compared to that of coal in Asia. With recent investment in renewables-based and nuclear power capacity now largely covering electricity demand growth, signs of overinvestment in coal-fired generation have emerged in China. Around 95% of power generation investments rely on vertical integration, long-term contracts or price regulation to manage risks. The growing role of decentralised renewables production does not eliminate the need for continuing investment in the electricity network, given the limited prospects for largescale electricity storage in the medium term. Although energy markets around the world are generally well supplied at present, investment trends warn against complacency about energy security. Globally, energy investment is not yet consistent with the transition to a low-carbon energy system envisaged in the Paris Climate Agreement reached at the end of 2015. Source - IEA
Iraq - Integrated National Energy Strategy (INES) - 2013-2030 The program of investments and reforms set forth in INES provides major gains on all these dimensions and lays a foundation for future national prosperity. Accomplishing this program, however, will require purposeful and coordinated government action and institutional commitment. In particular: INES requires immediate infrastructure development across all energy subsectors: oil (upstream and downstream), gas, power, and industry. Development must be rapid, but also balanced. These subsectors are interdependent. Each depends for its own advancement on advances in the others. They need to evolve in parallel. The delivery of INES benefits cannot begin until the basic infrastructure for all of these subsectors is in place. The next three years of infrastructure development are critical to the success of INES. Once effective linkages have been established among the various energy subsectors, enormous benefits will begin flowing to the people of Iraq. On the other hand, breakdowns in those linkages will create supply bottlenecks that waste time, resources, and opportunity. In order to accomplish the ambitious short-term INES infrastructure program, Iraq s energy-sector Ministries will need to focus intensely on specific critical tasks. These tasks are enumerated in the INES. Rapid, sustained, and balanced growth in the medium- and long-term phases of INES will require fundamental institutional reforms. Energy-sector Ministries will need to reorganize. They also will need to establish regulations, programs, and institutions that encourage private-sector participation in the energy sector. International investment needs to be encouraged in order to introduce world-class standards of technology, performance, and transparency. Local private investment needs to be encouraged in order to build domestic skills and entrepreneurship and to diversify economic development. Along with managing large and immediate growth in infrastructure, Iraq s Ministries also will need to foster rapid growth in institutional capabilities. In particular, they will need to employ a variety of tools to stem and to reverse the flight of talent from Iraq, and to build professional capabilities in such areas as accounting, engineering, planning, contracting, law, and general management. Implementation of INES will require a strong INES governance mechanism that sets benchmarks, monitors progress, addresses obstacles, adapts plans to new circumstances, and ensures continual coordination among Ministries. Such a response system of governance and coordination will mitigate the downside risk of not achieving the full benefits of INES by minimizing slippages and under-performance. Iraq is endowed with great resource wealth. Its challenge is to unlock that wealth through a coordinated plan of development, managed through capable institutions. INES sets forth a strategy for meeting that challenge.
Refinery Complexity O&GJ
Notes on Recent wide-ranging presentation centred on refining as an overlooked link in energy security issues, by Fesharaki. The US has the world s best refining system, but other countries are getting close, India s Reliance refinery is the largest and best-managed in the world. Part of China s refining system is close to US quality. No one ever expected the Koreans to have better refineries than Europe. Latin American refineries are far behind. New Middle East refineries are state-of-the-art. Sophisticated analysts can underestimate its significance by concentrating too heavily on crude oil supplies, which are more susceptible to politics. Refined product flows are heavily driven by environmental considerations, as well as storage and infrastructure. Moving crude is much easier than moving products. Crude oil is very political. Refined products aren t. There s no [Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries] or a cartel for them. Margins are huge, particularly for conventional oil. Today, US Gulf Coast refined products are economic at $30/bbl feedstock prices. Refiners basically are manufacturers. Crudes have many varieties. Refined products don t, but governments have set environmental standards that have gone much further in affecting product prices than overt supply manoeuvres ever did, US product imports have dropped by 40% in the last 10 years, largely US crude was cheaper than comparable overseas grades, and the discounts grew after the shale revolution,. Refineries built to process heavier grades can handle lighter crudes too, and product exports climbed to 4.5 million b/d, primarily diesel fuel to Europe and everything to Latin America,. US refined product exports are critical to the rest of the world. This country will export more and more refined products,. There is a gasoline shortfall that only US refiners can meet, not only in Latin America but also in Asia. There could be a 5 million-b/d change in US product flows in the next 10 years. US refiners have made money, but life is not simple. Basically, the $10-15/bbl difference between Brent and [West Texas Intermediate benchmark crudes] has disappeared. The International Maritime Organization moved to change bunkering regulations worldwide. Fuel oil will begin to die as a bunkering fuel. The IMO s Marine Environment Protection Committee s voted to move implementation of a 0.5% global sulfur cap on marine fuel to 2020 from 2025. The decision could affect global markets dramatically. Industry was not consulted. All the diesel surpluses in the world are going to be blended into low-sulfur fuel oil. A lot of people will make money. A lot of people will lose money,. New refining investments are concentrated east of the Suez Canal now. Significant closures in Japan, where the population is falling and demand could drop 40% between now and 2040. In Korea, no refineries are closing and higher quality products are being made. In Australia, there are no taxes because everybody has to drive such long distances. But all of the refineries are closing. About half of them should be gone by 2020. In China, new refineries are being built all by the government, The world needs US refining. Investments are lagging behind. Capacity has to grow,. Markets in Asia and Latin America will be the best destination for US product exports. As a world oil market player, the US is more significant when it comes to products than when it comes to crude oil. Latin American countries failure to build refineries has given US product exports their biggest boost, Demand for crude oil is climbing, but when we look at refineries under construction in Asia, there won t be enough gasoline. If diesel fuel has nowhere to grow thanks to IMO regulations, it will begin to be mixed with fuel oil, The pattern we have seen before of continuous investment in refining has stopped for now, The private sector is unwilling to invest in it because the competition is mainly governments. Decisions there don t go through a proper due diligence process. But governments in the Middle East have less money from their crude sales because prices are down. Some want to increase military spending instead. At the end of the day, refining is cyclical and margins are limited. But it s a natural hedge. Upstream assets are better investments in the long-term, but companies like BP, Shell, and ExxonMobil all are hanging onto their refining assets,
Role of Natural gas in supporting oil refining for clean fuels and petrochemicals Oil Refining :- With the changes in products quality, product slate and low demand for fuel oil, the availability of cheap source of hydrogen namely from natural gas became very important parameter in optimizing the investment and profitability of modern refineries. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) - its Marine Environment Protection Committee, voted to move the implementation of a 0.5% global sulfur cap on marine fuel to 2020 from 2025. This decision will give an opportunity for refiners with access to gas to build hydroconversion & treating process units and improve their competitiveness, while meeting the lower sulfur levels in fuel oil. Petrochemicals:- Associated Gas is a cost effective feed [ price and impact on investment ] for the petrochemical industry. The alternate is using liquids derived from Oil Refining as raw material.
Role or Oil & Gas in Petrochemicals
Synthetic Polymers [ Thermoplastics & Thermosetting resins ]- Two ways to make :- 1. Addition Polymers 2. Condensation Polymers Source- Shell
The Petrochemical Industry Source - Shell
Derivatives from oil & gas processing used for the production of Petrochemicals Source- Shell
Example of Evolving Business Dynamics & Challenges for sustainable performance - Source Shell
Example of Integration of crude oil refinery with Petrochemical Complex Chiba [ Idemitsu Kosan ]
Example of Competitive advantage for ethylene production from Associated gas versus naphtha
Global Project Data Hydrocarbon Processing July 2016
Summary of listed projects relevant to M.E. Stake holders - 1 1, State-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corp. (KPC) subsidiary Petrochemical Industries Co. KSC (PIC) has let a contract for the integration project between PIC s proposed grassroots Olefins III-Aromatics II complex and Kuwait National Petroleum Co.'s (KNPC) 615,000-b/d Al-Zour refinery complex now under construction in southern Kuwait. 2. Part of KNPC s Clean Fuels Project to upgrade, expand, and transform the 270,000-b/d Mina Abdullah and 466,000-b/d Mina Al Ahmadi refineries into an integrated 800,000 b/d merchant refining complex. 3. Iran s state-owned Ahdaf Management Services Development Co. PLC has let contracts to build the second phase of Kangan Petro Refining Co. s (KPRC) South Pars 12 petrochemical project in Pars Special Economic Energy Zone 4. ARAMCO TO BUY INTEREST IN MALAYSIA'S RAPID PROJECT Petronas has signed a share purchase agreement to sell Saudi Aramco a 50% ownership interest in its long-planned refinery and petrochemical integrated development (RAPID) project now under construction at the $27-28-billion Pengerang integrated complex (PIC). 5. Oman Oil Refineries & Petroleum Industries Co. (ORPIC) has completed all construction and precommissioning works for the multibillion-dollar Sohar Refinery Improvement Project (SRIP), a long-planned, brownfield modernization program to technically enhance the operator s existing 116,000-b/d refinery 6.. Qatar Petroleum (QP) subsidiary Qatargas Operating Co. Ltd. has formally commissioned the 146,000-b/d condensate splitter of its Laffan Refinery 2 (LR 2) at the Laffan refining complex 7. India's state-owned Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. (IOC) has completed the revamp and recommissioning of the 600,000-tonne/year Coker A at its 6-million tpy Barauni refinery 8. Royal Dutch Shell PLC will sell its 50% interest in the Saudi Petrochemical Co. (SADAF) joint venture to Saudi Basic Industries Corp. (SABIC), its partner, for $820 million 9. Abu Dhabi Oil Refinery Co. (Takreer), the refining arm of state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC), is restarting operations at the recently shuttered 417,000-b/d West plant of its more than 800,000-b/d Ruwais refining 10. Esfahan Oil Refining Co. (EORC), a subsidiary of Iran's state-owned National Iranian Oil Refining & Distribution Co. (NIORDC), has issued a letter of agreement (LOA) for execution of a modernization and improvement project at EORC s 375,000-b/d refinery in Esfahan City, 11. Saudi Aramco has let a turnkey contract to provide engineering, procurement, construction, and commissioning (EPCC) on two packages of a clean-fuels project at Aramco s 550,000-b/d Ras Tanura refinery 12. State-owned Sonatrach SPA has let a contract to deliver engineering and project management consultancy (PMC) services for two grassroots units to be built at the 16.5-million tonne/year refinery in Skikda 13. Kuwait Petroleum Corp. subsidiary Kuwait Petroleum International Ltd. (KPI) has entered an agreement with Duqm Refinery & Petrochemical Industries Co. LLC (DRPIC), Muscat, a joint venture of state-owned Oman Oil Co. (OOC) 14. Yanbu Aramco Sinopec Refining Co. Ltd. (Yasref) a joint venture of Saudi Aramco (62.5%) and China Petrochemical Corp. (Sinopec) (37.5%) has implemented technology licensed by Chevron Lummus Global (CLG) a joint venture of CB&I and Chevron Corp. in the hydrocracker of its 400,000-b/d refinery 15. Saudi Arabia s national oil company appears more intent on continuing to secure refining and petrochemical assets worldwide for its crude oil than on cutting production to stabilize or increase oil prices
Summary of listed projects relevant to M.E. Stake holders - 2 16. Saudi Arabian Oil Co. (Saudi Aramco) wants to become a top-three player in ethylene, paraxylene, and benzene and is increasing the integration of its refining and petrochemical industries to pursue that goal 17. State-owned Emirates National Oil Co. (ENOC) of Dubai has let a contract for the design and construction of new processing and ancillary units 18. Sadara Chemical Co., a joint venture of Saudi Aramco and Dow Chemical Co., has commissioned Saudi Arabia s first mixed-feed cracker (MFC) at the company s Jubail integrated chemical complex in Jabail Industrial City II 19. Saudi Aramco has let a series of new contracts for development of the Fadhili gas program in the eastern province of Saudi Arabia, north of Jubail. 20. Turkish Petroleum Refineries Corp. (Tupras) has let a contract to Honeywell UOP LLC, a subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for a new hydrocracking unit designed to boost diesel production at its 11 million-tonne/year Izmit refinery 21. Rabigh Refining & Petrochemical Co. (Petro Rabigh), a joint venture of Saudi Aramco and Sumitomo Chemical Co., has initiated restart of the 1.6 milliontonnes/year ethane cracker at its refinery and chemicals complex 22. RasGas Co. Ltd. has completed a decade-long program to cut emissions of nitrogen oxide (NO x ) from a series of gas processing installations and related facilities at its LNG operations in Ras Laffan Industrial City 23. Saudi Aramco and Saudi Arabian Basic Industries Corp. (SABIC) plan to conduct a joint feasibility study for development of a fully integrated crude oil-tochemicals complex in Saudi Arabia 24. Indonesia s PT Pertamina (Persoro) and Saudi Aramco have let a contract to provide engineering and project management services for the upgrade and expansion of the 348,000-b/d Cilacap refinery on Java 25. Assiut Petroleum Refining Co. (ASORC), a subsidiary of Egyptian General Petroleum Corp. (EGPC), has let a contract for a grassroots unit to 26. Midor overhauls Egyptian General Petroleum Corp. (EGPC) has let contracts, for a $1.4 billion expansion project at Midor s Alexandria refinery 27. Saudi Aramco Total Refinery & Petrochemicals Co. (Satorp) has let a contract to provide general engineering services for a series of projects at its 400,000 b/d full-conversion refinery complex at Jubail 28. Indian Oil Corp. Ltd. (IOC) has started up the 4.27 million-tonne/year INDMAX fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) unit at its recently commissioned 15 million-tpy, full-conversion refinery at Paradip 29. Saudi Aramco and Royal Dutch Shell PLC have entered a preliminary agreement to separate assets of Motiva Enterprises LLC, the Houston-based refining and marketing joint venture 30. Iraq has started construction on a long-planned $6-billion refinery in the country s southern-border province of Missan 31. Saudi Aramco, Jazan refinery and associated marine terminal project Previously scheduled for startup in late 2016, the Jazan refinery and associated marine terminal project 32. Parsian Oil & Gas Development Co. (POGDC), Iran s largest nongovernmental petrochemical holding, has entered an agreement on future projects involving major overhauls designed to modernize two Iranian refineries 33. Oman Oil Refineries & Petroleum Industries Co. (ORPIC) for its Liwa Plastics Industries Project (LPIP) in Oman s Sohar Industrial Port Area
New Refinery project - Characteristics Location :- Market Features and size of the location Raw material supply Environmental Impact Infrastructure Support facilities, resources and supplies Typical period of time to implement the project [ from concept to commissioning ]:- Best recent record is Reliance Industries Ltd 33 months for the first refinery and 36 months for the second refinery Recent refineries in China, US, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam have taken 5-10 years [ source:- Reliance ]. Basis for project conceptualisation & evaluation :- The Concept phase of a refinery project is based on the knowledge of today & the events of the past and prediction [ and / or vision ] of the future. Prediction accuracy reduces the further the projection. The Asset will be designed for the projected availability of the crude oils & their quantities and the quality of the various products. Often the value of phasing [ dynamics of organic growth ] the investment is overlooked. The accuracy of the project cost is better known [ especially with a lump sum EPC ], than the revenue stream. The project revenue is derived from the operation of the refinery and the sales of products, which is about 4-5 years from the conceptualisation of the project, hence carries relatively high uncertainty. Fortunately there is a trend in refining margins, which is more important for the cash flow than revenue from sales.
2. Cont Refinery Project - Development Criteria: Value Addition [ Moving Up or down the Supply Chain ] Harmonisation with the Overall Economic Development Plan Refinery Project as pillar to Industrialisation & Development [ upward or downward market integration ]
Harmonisation with the Overall Economic Development Plan [EDP] Multi Industrial projects Integration Concept and its benefits Just in time phasing Development of Skills and Resources Outside the boundary:- Support Services Infrastructure and Remember:- [ EDP] is structured to:- Synergise & integrate projects in all sectors in a multiphase plan; includes ORGANIC growth over time; Guided by long-term Vision; flexible to re-examine progress and alignment with emerging needs.
Competitiveness Products Costs:- key characteristics of more economical products costs:- Highly efficient project technology compared to current and potential alternatives. Site advantage. Pricing protection against volatility Sound financing, raw material supply or operating strategies Proximity to secure raw material supply.
Balancing Act for Success
A Small Refinery - Current Capacity =45,000 B/D Near Great Salt Lake - Utah / USA O&GJ
Investment Needed Investment = Project Cost + other costs Project Cost [ Estimated Erected Cost - within the refinery fence ] = Design and Construction [ Material & labour ]. Other Costs = owner s cost, cost of capital, insurance, land,working capital, spare parts, etc Factors impacting Investment :- 1. Capacity 2. Complexity & products yields 3. Quality of raw material & products 4. Environmental compliance 5. Provision of common facilities [ provided by others ] Factors impacting Construction Cost :- - location factor - Infrastructure support - Local content [ support industries and skilled labour ] Approximate current investment for high complexity refinery with 200-250 KB/D in a developing country is 4-7 billion USD
Concluding Remarks There is a need to organise skilled resources to develop project definition acceptable to the providers of Funds and/or investors Provider of Funds or investors will need the comfort that all the risks and uncertainties are quantified and plans for mitigating such events are in place Engaging External parties in the form of Funding or investor/partner should be identified during the course of the project definition. The value addition of the external resource should provide a fair win/ win situation to both parties There are variety of options for the Engagement of external resource; but the final selection is based on the value addition and the alignment of the business objectives Make sure you know what you are doing if I DO IT MY WAY.
Thank You Dr Husain Al-Chalabi [ FEI ] chalabih@aol.com