New impulses for sensing in automotive Dr. Richard Dixon Senior Principal Analyst, MEMS & Sensors
Agenda Automotive MEMS & Sensor Market Overview New impulses Automated driving Electrification Trends Conclusions
Market overview
Big changes underway in passenger car market Way we consider transportation is changing Ownership vs. sharing vs. rental Awareness of environment City bans planned for diesel engines in Paris, Madrid, Stuttgart. no ICEs in the UK from 2040! Type of car we own Hybrid, electric, fuel cell.. Way we interact with automated passenger cars A new space in which to work, be entertained, consume..
Automotive MEMS & Sensor Market Chip value = $42 per car in 2010 $61 per car in 2022
ADAS and electrification drive automotive sensor economy Chip value = $42 per car in 2010 $61 per car in 2022 Advanced Driver Assist boosts market
BRIC countries drive growth outside of ADAS IHS currently revising its forecast upward for China and India
New impulses: automated driving
MEMS & sensors for autonomous driving Automation level System capability Driving environment Fall back position Only driver assistance Some driving modes Fail-safe Partial Automation Some driving modes Conditional Automation Some driving modes High Automation Some driving modes Fail-operational Full Automation All driving modes Human Driver Human Driver System System System Human Driver Human Driver Human Driver System System L1 L2 L3 L4 L5 Evolution of established sensing New sensing Radar: from 1D to 2D detection Camera: towards higher resolution (Up to 7MP); increasing frame rate (30 to 60 frames/sec) Infrared Camera: essential for driver monitoring in L3 Ultrasonic: No big change Lidar: from macro-mechanical to solid-state High-performance IMU: Dead reckoning sensors for L4 and L5 Adaptive Lighting: based on MEMS scanners and/or DLP
LIDAR: a technology fight Based on solid-state technology Mechanical Scanning LIDAR Non scanning Flash LIDAR Phase array LIDAR MEMS based scanning LIDAR Other Valeo/Ibeo Ibeo Velodyne Quanergy System Suppliers: Continental Continental (ASC) Valeo Invisage Technologies Strobe* Solution suppliers: LeddarCore Phantom Intelligence Quanergy MIT + Darpa Microvision Innoluce (Infineon) Innoviz Technologies Lemoptix (Intel) Bosch STMicro VCSEL based: Trilumina Xenomatix Electro-optic scanner: Princeton Lightwave Optical Antenna: OryxVision Source: Valeo/Ibeo Source: Continental Source: Quanergy Source: Innoluce
LIDAR creates need for accurate dead reckoning Global positioning of point clouds for high resolution maps with LIDAR Performance vs. Price for yaw sensor used in autonomous driving
Specifications are key to pricing High precision inertial dead reckoning required for (L4 /L5 operation) Specifications either not known or closely guarded L4 dead reckoning requires 1-2 cm over 300m Today s inertial automotive navigation gyroscopes cost $5 and drift equivalent of 2-3 m over 300 m Tough combination of performance, price target $10-20? Will rely on sensor fusion to soften specs Courtesy Volvo
13 Adaptive lighting: full beam all the time Electronic content for lighting is increasing rapidly Adaptive lighting rather than night vision Source: Hella Adaptive laser light based on MEMS Source: IHS Automotive 2016 Source: Bosch
New impulses: electrification
Electric: a threat to MEMS & sensor industry? BMW i3 Internal combustion engine: around $50 for sensors Electric motor: around $8 to $12 for sensors MEMS: $9 value / engine on average Eliminate 4 MEMS pressure sensors, flow sensor Silicon magnetic: $5 / engine 6 10 position and speed sensors O2, NOx, PM: $35 / engine From 7 sensors to 0 Silicon magnetic: $1-2 / traction motor on average (up to 2 motors) 3 6 position and current sensors for motor control Other silicon sensor: $5-10 (temp, humidity, pressure)
The good news: HEV will dominate HEV will dominate propulsion systems in 2030 43% Gasoline HEV 5% BEV ROW still using combustion engines New sensors Position, current in traction motor Battery pressure, voltage, humidity Courtesy IHS Automotive
17 Best of both worlds: hybrid transmissions BMW i8, Courtesy BMW +5-10 sensors 15-20 sensors 1. Electrical motor 2. Control electronics 3. Two-speed gearbox (2 Hall for selection, 1 inductive PLCD sensor for input speed) 4. Output shaft 5. 3-cyl gasoline combustion engine 6. Output shaft 7. Six-speed automatic DCT with 4x position, 2x speed sensors, 1x Hall TRS position BLDC gear change motor
Trends
Trends: functional safety ISO26262 determines component risk classes More diagnostics, self check, health monitoring, new communication interfaces (security?) Redundancy for ASIL-D applications Affect magnetic not MEMS, i.e. steering, throttle, acceleration pedal position sensors Double / triple number of dies, either dual packages but same package Mixed technologies = higher ASIL ratings Sensors get more expensive! BMW Continental 2 x angle, 2 x torque 2 x angle 2 x angle Bosch
Trends: technology shifts For safety critical applications of magnetic sensing, higher performance fosters technology changes IHS Markit
21 Sensors have to cope with more extremes Internal fields from e-motors E-motors produce strong electrical interference Next generation sensors required to protect against 4000 A /m compared to previous 1000 A / m Wireless charging (2018) High power inductive charging heats metal components Engine environment gets hotter Aftertreatment packaged closer to engine Temperature requirements 150 C+ Automotive IOT Sensors have to provide more data More security and protection Capture filtered data but also raw data
Conclusions BRIC countries: mandates for conventional safety applications and emission control (harmonization of world legislation) Markets price driven How to meet cost targets while maintaining reliability? Die redundancy? Fail safe mode? Established markets: autonomous driving Not only about radar and camera. Opportunities for MEMS for LIDAR, inertial navigation and adaptive lighting in 2020-2030 Performance driven market MEMS & Sensor market healthy for next 10 years!
Thank you for your attention! richard.dixon@ihsmarkit.com