AERO2K AERO2K Aviation Emissions Inventory for 2002 and 2025 Chris Eyers EC-AERODAYS, Vienna June 2006
Question 2 How many tonnes of CO2 are emitted from aircraft per year? 500 tonnes 500 000 tonnes 500 000 000 tonnes 500 000 000 000 tonnes More? Answer comes later
Contents 3 Recent aviation emission inventories The AERO2K Inventory 2002 Results from AERO2K Comparison with other inventory results 2025 Results from AERO2K
Recent Aviation Emissions Inventories 4 Recent Inventories NASA/Boeing 1976, 1984, 1992, 1999 DLR - 1992 ANCAT/EC2 1992 Recent inventory forecasts 2015 NASA/Boeing, DLR, ANCAT/EC2 Global aviation emissions inventories are computer intensive tasks. Greater computing power allows better assumptions AERO2k uses this greater available computing power to provide a new inventory for 2002 and a new forecast for 2025
AERO2k Inventory Project Overview Project Partners: QinetiQ (UK, Co-ordinator), DLR (Germany), Manchester Metropolitan University (UK), NLR (The Netherlands), Department of Trade and Industry (UK) Airbus France (France) Eurocontrol (European Agency) AERO2K was partially funded by EC Framework 5 Programme 5
The AERO2k Inventory AERO2K creates a database of global aviation emissions for the year 2002 based on: Actual 2002 aircraft movements database Updated aircraft fuel usage predictions based on PIANO modelling tool Updated engine emissions data New particulate and distance flown data AERO2k produces a forecast of global emissions for 2025 based on predicted aircraft movements Fuel consumption (nm/kg) Particle Number per Gram of Soot 1,8E+16 1,6E+16 1,4E+16 1,2E+16 1E+16 8E+15 6E+15 0.100 4E+15 EI NOx [g/kg] 30 25 20 15 10 5 A340-300 ETMS 0 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3 FUEL FLOW [kg/s] AERO2k FL370 99%SAR 2E+15 0.095 PIANO FL370 M0.81 0 BADA FL370 M0.81 0Based 2000 4000on 6000publicly AERO2k FL390 99% SAR 0.090 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 PIANO FL390 M0.81 Altitude BADA [m] FL390 M0.81 0.085 0.080 0.075 available data Uses latest available data from DLR 0.070 150000 160000 170000 180000 190000 200000 210000 Aircraft Weight (kg) 6 ICAO LTO-Zyklus SLS, ISA SLS, ISA+20K SLS, ISA-20K 16000 ft, Ma=0.5, ISA 35000 ft, Ma=0.86, ISA 35000 ft, Ma=0.86, ISA+20K AMOC
AERO2k Inventory Flight Trajectory - Improvement over Great Circle Assumption 7 B747-400 Singapore to London
AERO2K Inventory Taxi Times (Europe) 8 LTO times-in-mode for individual airports are computed. Taxi Time (mins) 30 25 20 15 10 Taxi In AVG Taxi IN Taxi Out 5 0
AERO2K Inventory Data Integration 9
AERO2K Inventory Allocation onto global grid 10 Fuel and emissions are allocated onto global grids. latitude The method determines length of path flown in each cell (e.g. blue line on flight path shown). Fuel and emissions allocated accordingly. longitude
AERO2k Output 11 1. Global Gridded Data for 2002 and 2025 Distance flown - new Fuel used CO2, H2O, NOx, CO, HC Estimate of particulate mass and number new 2. Global, regional and national totals for these parameters Civil 17.9 156 Aviation [1] Fuel used in departures from European Airports Military Aviation Total Distance Flown Nautical miles x 10-9 ) Fuel Used (Tg) CO 2 (Tg) 492 Asia and Pacific n/a 19.5 61.5 Eastern and Southern Africa European and North n/a Atlantic 176 553 Middle East H 2 O (Tg) 193 24.1 217 CO (Tg).507.627 1.13 NO x (Tg) 2.06.178 2.24 HC (Tg).631.644 1.27 Soot (Tg).0039 n/a n/a Particles (X 10-25 ) 4.03 n/a n/a North American, Central American and Caribbean South American Western and Central Africa
AERO2k Inventory - Application 12 Applications of AERO2K Climate impact modelling Gridded Results Policy discussion Global and regional totals SBSTA IPCC/ICAO A firm basis for policy and scenario assessment Results - Next slides
13 AERO2k Results Gridded results are available at: http://www.cate.mmu. ac.uk/aero2k 2002 internal and Eastbound traffic from Europe
AERO2k Military Gridded Results - 2002 10 7 14 10 8 6 4 2 0 2003. 2002 Military Fuel usage - Global
AERO2k Results 2002 Global totals 15 Distance Flown Fuel Used CO 2 H 2 O CO NO x HC Soot Particles Nautical miles x 10-9 ) (Tg) (Tg) (Tg) (Tg) (Tg) (Tg) (Tg) (X 10-25 ) Civil Aviation [1] 17.9 156 492 193.507 2.06.063.0039 4.03 Military Aviation n/a 19.5 61.5 24.1.627.178.064 n/a n/a Total n/a 176 553 217 1.13 2.24 0.127 n/a n/a [1] Civil aviation includes IFR flights only
AERO2K Global Totals 2002 Comparison with other inventories 3 NOx Emissions 16 Fuel Used NOx Emissions (Tg) 2 1 NASA Military DLR ANCAT 1992 AERO2K Fuel Used (Tg) 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 NASA NASA DLR DLR ANCAT ANCAT AERO2K Military Military CO Emissions (Tg) HC Emissions (Tg) 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 CO Emissions 1 0.5 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 HC Emissions 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 NASA Military AERO2K NASA Military AERO2K 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
AERO2K Global Totals 2025 Comparison with other forecasts 5.00 NOx Emissions 17 Fuel Used NOx Emissions (Tg) 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 NASA DLR ANCAT AERO2K Military 350 0.00 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Fuel Used (Tg) 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 NASA DLR ANCAT AERO2K Military CO Emissions (Tg) CO Emissions 2.000 1.000 0.000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 HC Emissions 0.350 NASA AERO2K Military 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 HC Emissions(Tg) 0.300 0.250 0.200 0.150 0.100 0.050 NASA AERO2K Military 0.000 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
AERO2K Global Totals Comparison with FESG scenarios to 2050 18 NOx Emissions (Tg) Fuel Used (Tg) 12.0 800 10.0 700 600 8.0 500 400 6.0 300 4.0 200 100 2.0 High High Demand Demand Medium Med Demand Demand Low Demand Demand 0.00 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 NASA NASA DLR DLR ANCAT ANCAT Military Military FESG FESG
AERO2K Global Totals Comparison with EDF scenarios to 2050 19 AERO2K AERO2K
Future Application - General 20 AERO2K software tool can be re-run or developed further to produce, for example, selected datasets (eg national emissions, by aircraft type, by airline) other forecasts (eg using FESG forecast) other base years or forecast years comparison of data with other inventories/methodologies (UNFCCC) In the meantime, the AERO2K data provides a firm foundation for modelling of aviation climate effects and for generation of scenario datasets to inform policy decisions Results and reports are available at: http://www.cate.mmu.ac.uk/aero2k
Stratification of NOx emissions (2002) 21 Source: Marcus Koehler, University of Cambridge
22 Thank you
AERO2K Contact 24 For further information, contact: Chris Eyers Gas Turbine Technologies QinetiQ Farnborough Hants UK GU34 9ND Tel: +44 1252 392269 Email: cjeyers@qinetiq.com