Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments Ioannis Tsapakis, Ph.D. Cesar Quiroga, Ph.D., P.E.
0-6498 Research Project Completed in 2011 Impacts Pavement impacts Reduction in pavement life Roadside impacts Operational and safety impacts Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 2
IH 35W East Frontage Road Pavement shoving, loss of surface Pavement shoving, loss of surface Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 3
Roadside Impacts Drainage problem at driveway Mud tracking Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 4
Statewide Pavement Impact $1 billion per year $2 billion per year including local roads No main highways or bridges included Cost to industry (with no pavement repair): $1.5-3.5 billion per year Equipment damage Lower operating speeds Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 5
Current Initiatives Pavement design and maintenance Energy development traffic characterization Wheel and equivalent single-axle loads County maps Oil/gas developments and transportation infrastructure correlations Traffic safety and hazmat surveys Practices in other states Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 6
ENERGY DEVELOPMENT TRAFFIC CHARACTERIZATION Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 7
Energy Traffic Characterization Number of truckloads is a function of: Well type and depth Geology Drilling technology Water needs for fracking: 2 6 million gallons Vertical vs. horizontal wells (Marcellus Shale) Vertical well fracking: 20,000 80,000 gallons Horizontal well fracking: 2 9 million gallons Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 8
Activity Energy Traffic Characterization No. of Trucks (only trucks) No. of Trucks (trucks and pipelines) Pad construction 10-45 10-45 Drilling rig 35-45 35-45 Drilling pipe, casing, fluid, materials 50-100 50-100 Hydraulic fracturing equipment 150-200 150-200 Hydraulic fracturing water 400-600 50-60 Hydraulic fracturing sand 20-25 20-25 Flowback water removal 200-300 35-50 Well completion 10-20 10-20 Total 875-1335 360-545 Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 9
Relative Pavement Impact Total Weight (lb) Weight Ratio EALF Ratio Weight Ratio EALF Ratio Weight Ratio EALF Ratio WRT 4,000 lb WRT 35,000 lb WRT 80,000 lb 4,000 1 1 10,000 2.5 23 35,000 8.8 583 1 1 80,000 20 18,009 2.3 31 1 1 84,000 21 22,210 2.4 38 1.05 1.2 90,000 22 28,511 2.6 49 1.12 1.6 100,000 25 42,753 2.9 73 1.25 2.4 Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 10
OS/OW Permits FY 2013 Industry Type No. of Permits All Industry Types 519,206 Oil and Gas Industry Related 224,500 % Permits Related to Oil & Gas Industry 43% Oil & Gas Industry Permits No. Permits No. Trips Annual permits 16,720 4,180,031 Single trip permits 180,002 180,002 Other permits 27,778 27,778 Total 224,500 4,387,810 Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 11
OIL/GAS DEVELOPMENTS AND TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE CORRELATIONS Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 12
Changes from 2006-09 to 2010-13 Region Number of Horizontal Wells Number of Vertical Wells Total Number of Wells 2006-09 2010-13 Diff. 2006-09 2010-13 Diff. 2006-09 2010-13 Diff. Barnett Shale 8,663 4,490-48% 1,482 698-53% 10,145 5,188-49% Eagle Ford Shale 854 8,886 941% 4,595 3,689-20% 5,449 12,575 131% Permian Basin 951 3,230 240% 14,381 21,396 49% 15,332 24,626 61% Other 1,761 3,356 91% 18,706 9,653-48% 20,467 13,009-36% Grand Total 12,229 19,962 63% 39,164 35,436-10% 51,393 55,398 8% Karnes County 28 1,312 4586% 38 50 32% 66 1,362 1964% Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 13
County Number of Horizontal Wells Number of Vertical Wells Total Number of Wells 2006-09 2010-13 Diff. 2006-09 2010-13 Diff. 2006-09 2010-13 Diff. Atascosa 1 368 36700% 38 37-3% 39 405 938% Bastrop 7 4-43% 17 8-53% 24 12-50% Changes from 2006-09 to 2010-13 Bee 34 23-32% 202 119-41% 236 142-40% Brazos 76 124 63% 12 5-58% 88 129 47% Burleson 32 54 69% 25 3-88% 57 57 0% Caldwell 18 76 322% 72 34-53% 90 110 22% DeWitt 52 804 1446% 142 32-77% 194 836 331% Dimmit 67 1,494 2130% 123 32-74% 190 1526 703% Duval 4 6 50% 244 118-52% 248 124-50% Fayette Region 29 47 62% 13 15 15% 42 62 48% Frio 24 203 746% 109 24-78% 133 227 71% Goliad 0 0 0% 255 54-79% 255 54-79% Gonzales 8 852 10550% 13 22 69% 21 874 4062% Grimes 30 36 20% 5 11 120% 35 47 34% Guadalupe 10 27 170% 7 27 286% 17 54 218% Jim Wells 0 0 0% 57 38-33% 57 38-33% Karnes 28 1,312 4586% 38 50 32% 66 1362 1964% La Salle 34 1,366 3918% 166 26-84% 200 1392 596% Lavaca 18 78 333% 272 80-71% 290 158-46% Lee 25 42 68% 19 8-58% 44 50 14% Live Oak 31 337 987% 137 80-42% 168 417 148% Maverick 3 19 533% 619 2389 286% 622 2408 287% McMullen 140 68-51% 293 18-94% 433 86-80% Robertson 29 68 134% 460 94-80% 489 162-67% Victoria 0 1 100% 230 99-57% 230 100-57% Washington 9 8-11% 7 4-43% 16 12-25% Webb 105 1,192 1035% 998 213-79% 1103 1405 27% Wilson 7 121 1629% 5 22 340% 12 143 1092% Zavala 33 156 Eagle 373% Ford Shale 17 Energy Developments 27 59% 50 183 266% 14 Total 854 8,886 941% 4,595 3,689-20% 5,449 12,575 131% Number of Horizontal Wells Number of Vertical Wells Total Number of Wells 2006-09 2010-13 Diff. 2006-09 2010-13 Diff. 2006-09 2010-13 Diff. Barnett Shale 8,663 4,490-48% 1,482 698-53% 10,145 5,188-49% Eagle Ford Shale 854 8,886 941% 4,595 3,689-20% 5,449 12,575 131% Permian Basin 951 3,230 240% 14,381 21,396 49% 15,332 24,626 61% Other 1,761 3,356 91% 18,706 9,653-48% 20,467 13,009-36% Grand Total 12,229 19,962 63% 39,164 35,436-10% 51,393 55,398 8% Karnes County 28 1,312 4586% 38 50 32% 66 1,362 1964%
Changes from 2006-09 to 2010-13 Region Oil Production (BBL) Gas Production (MCF) 2006-09 2010-13 Diff. 2006-09 2010-13 Diff. Barnett Shale 21,249,731 34,576,341 63% 5,405,555,430 7,845,267,680 45% Eagle Ford Shale 76,979,250 541,221,811 603% 3,550,292,226 4,706,967,631 33% Permian Basin 997,383,412 1,268,827,453 27% 2,942,718,794 1,981,010,535-33% Other 296,920,612 334,041,944 13% 13,884,408,311 12,416,857,011-11% Grand Total 1,392,533,005 2,178,667,549 56% 25,782,974,761 26,950,102,857 5% Karnes County 1,124,039 114,204,940 10060% 34,352,282 226,427,068 559% Region Liquids (BBL) Disposed into the Ground 2006-09 2010-13 Diff. Barnett Shale 697,396,323 1,000,917,551 44% Eagle Ford Shale 1,949,556,636 2,171,974,843 11% Permian Basin 1,184,755,125 1,752,394,208 48% Other 3,088,383,567 2,873,346,893-7% Grand Total 6,920,091,651 7,798,633,495 13% Karnes County 10,493,457 46,233,210 341% Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 15
Changes from 2006-09 to 2010-13 Region Below-Good Distress Scores Below-Good Ride Scores Below-Good Cond. Scores 2006-09 2010-13 Diff. 2006-09 2010-13 Diff. 2006-09 2010-13 Diff. Barnett Shale 15.1% 12.1% -3.0% 23.1% 22.1% -1.0% 15.9% 12.8% -3.1% Eagle Ford Shale 17.2% 19.2% 1.9% 36.5% 34.1% -2.4% 16.5% 17.7% 1.3% Permian Basin 8.8% 9.1% 0.2% 15.0% 17.1% 2.1% 7.4% 7.6% 0.2% Other 14.3% 14.4% 0.1% 24.6% 23.1% -1.5% 13.8% 13.2% -0.6% Grand Total 14.0% 14.2% 0.2% 24.6% 23.6% -1.1% 13.5% 13.0% -0.4% Karnes County 12.8% 34.2% 21.4% 55.8% 54.8% -1.1% 13.3% 34.9% 21.6% Region Total Maintenance Expenditures Maintenance Expend. per Lane-Mile 2006-09 2010-13 Diff. 2006-09 2010-13 Diff. Barnett Shale $ 129,529,342 $ 195,129,989 51% $ 10,539 $ 15,877 51% Eagle Ford Shale $ 174,220,728 $ 363,893,844 109% $ 7,133 $ 14,898 109% Permian Basin $ 60,366,852 $ 134,290,179 122% $ 2,701 $ 6,010 122% Other $ 1,015,961,891 $ 1,570,940,664 55% $ 6,625 $ 10,244 55% Grand Total $ 1,380,078,812 $ 2,264,254,676 64% $ 6,497 $ 10,660 64% Karnes County $ 4,568,045 $ 22,958,450 403% $ 7,980 $ 40,106 403% Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 16
OIL/GAS DEVELOPMENTS AND TRAFFIC SAFETY CORRELATIONS Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 17
All Crashes 60,000 Number of Crashes 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000-2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Eagle Ford Shale Barnett Shale Permian Basin Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 18
Rural Crashes 10,000 Number of Rural Crashes 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000-2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Eagle Ford Shale Barnett Shale Permian Basin Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 19
CMV Crashes Number of CMV Crashes 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500-2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Eagle Ford Shale Barnett Shale Permian Basin Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 20
Rural CMV Crashes Number of Rural CMV Crashes 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200-2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Eagle Ford Shale Barnett Shale Permian Basin Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 21
All Crashes Change in Crash Rate (per 100 Million VMT)
Rural Crashes Change in Crash Rate (per 100 Million VMT)
CMV Crashes Change in Crash Rate (per 100 Million VMT)
Rural CMV Crashes Change in Crash Rate (per 100 Million VMT)
All Crashes Change in Crash Rate (per 100 Lane-Miles)
Rural Crashes Change in Crash Rate (per 100 Lane-Miles)
CMV Crashes Change in Crash Rate (per 100 Lane-Miles)
Rural CMV Crashes Change in Crash Rate (per 100 Lane-Miles)
Changes from 2006-09 to 2010-13 Region Fatal, Incap., Non-Incap., Poss. Injury, No-Injury, Unknown All Rural CMV Rural & CMV Barnett Shale -10% -25% -12% -34% Eagle Ford Shale 1% 4% 32% 61% Permian Basin -4% 11% 33% 52% Other -7% -1% -14% -9% Grand Total -7% -2% -9% -1% Region Fatal, Incapacitating, Non-Incapacitating All Rural CMV Rural & CMV Barnett Shale -3% -22% -13% -26% Eagle Ford Shale 6% 1% 50% 77% Permian Basin 4% 18% 51% 57% Other -1% -6% -6% -5% Grand Total -1% -5% 0% 7% Region Fatal All Rural CMV Rural & CMV Barnett Shale -14% -29% -25% -37% Eagle Ford Shale 6% 10% 58% 76% Permian Basin 22% 20% 94% 88% Other -5% -8% -1% 3% Grand Total -4% -6% 7% 14% 30
Correlations Region Crash Type Barnett Shale Eagle Ford Shale Permian Basin New Horizontal Wells New Vertical Wells All 0.56-0.15 Rural 0.62-0.24 CMV 0.52-0.19 Rural & CMV 0.63-0.10 All 0.12 0.16 Rural -0.07-0.22 CMV 0.39 0.09 Rural & CMV 0.57-0.10 All -0.08 0.07 Rural 0.03 0.33 CMV 0.06 0.29 Rural & CMV 0.23 0.47 31
32
Economic and Comprehensive Cost Economic costs: Death: $1,500,000 Incapacitating injury: $74,900 Non-incapacitating injury: $24,000 Possible injury: $13,600 Comprehensive costs: Death: $4,628,000 Incapacitating injury: $235,400 Non-incapacitating injury: $60,000 Possible injury: $28,600 Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 33
Economic and Comprehensive Cost Region Economic Cost Comprehensive Cost 2006-09 2010-13 Diff. 2006-09 2010-13 Diff. Barnett Shale $ 211,795,179 $ 138,404,870-35% $ 640,098,771 $ 417,982,017-35% Eagle Ford Shale $ 268,959,920 $ 407,742,394 52% $ 809,729,658 $ 1,228,722,169 52% Permian Basin $ 171,025,104 $ 347,503,582 103% $ 513,260,764 $ 1,051,857,637 105% Other $ 1,614,666,206 $ 1,567,187,786-3% $ 4,827,962,078 $ 4,701,875,857-3% Grand Total $ 2,266,446,409 $ 2,460,838,632 9% $ 6,791,051,271 $ 7,400,437,680 9%
Changes from 2006-09 to 2010-13 Change in # of KAB Rural CMV Crashes 100 50 0-2000 -1000 0 1000 2000-50 -100 Change in # of New Horizontal Wells 35
Thank You! Additional information: Cesar Quiroga: Phone: 210-321-1229 Ioannis Tsapakis: Phone: 210-321-1217 Email: c-quiroga@tamu.edu Email: i-tsapakis@tamu.edu Eagle Ford Shale Energy Developments 36