Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing Fourth quarter 2016 automotive market share trends and registrations Brad Smith Director, Automotive Market Statistics Marty Miller Senior Product Manager, Vehicles in Operation (VIO) Experian Public
Today s presentation Part one Marty Miller Senior Product Manager, VIO What s on the Road VIO by model year, segment, age and market share U.S. light duty vehicles through December 31, 2016 U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles through December 31, 2016 Presentation will be available 24-48 hours after Webinar Email with a link will be sent to all registrants to download Questions? Contact us at Auto@experian.com 2 Experian Public
Session overview Part two Q4 2016 Registrations Market trends Geographic performance Manufacturer, make and model share Loyalty, conquest and defection Brad Smith Director, Automotive Market Statistics 3 Experian Public
U.S. Total Vehicles in Operation = 283.8M Light Duty Passenger Cars, Light Trucks, Vans Cars and GVW Class 1-3 Medium & Heavy Duty Large Vans, Delivery Trucks, Buses, RVs, Cement Trucks, Semi-Tractors GVW Class 4-8 Power Sports Motorcycles, All-Terrain, Utility Task, Snowmobiles *Q4 2016 includes Puerto Rico 4 Experian Public
Vehicles in Operation What s on the road today? Light Duty Vehicles 5 Experian Public
U.S. Vehicles In Operation Q4 2015 258 million Vehicles on the road 17.3 * NEW VEHICLES 41.9 * USED VEHICLES EXIT 9.3 * Out of Operation 198.2 * NO CHANGES Q4 2016 266 million Vehicles on the road DEALER Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only) 6 Experian Public *In millions; Q4 2016 includes Puerto Rico Q4 2015 does not
VIO change by model year (in millions) Q4 2015 to Q4 2016 New Sales 17.3M Out of Operation 9.3M 7 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
Four cylinders dominate U.S. roads Fuel efficient, technology and more HP 8 Experian Public
VIO Top 20 segments on the road market share 9 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
VIO by manufacturer market share 10 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
VIO trend by quarter with estimated projection Projections based on current consumer patterns 11 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
The aftermarket Sweet Spot overview Post and Pre Sweet Spot defined The aftermarket Sweet Spot is defined as 6 to 12 model year old vehicles, and because of their age, are out of the general OEM manufacturer warranty for any repairs. These vehicles are within a time period when more part replacement or services are needed (e.g. shocks, timing belt service, engine repairs) that may be performed by aftermarket service shops which are supplied by aftermarket part manufacturers and retailers. Defining the Sweet Spot size helps identify the overall market potential, and changes can have implications to those that service it. Post Sweet Spot vehicles are defined as 13 model years old or older, and identify the models where less costs may be spent to service them due to their age and vehicle value. Pre Sweet Spot vehicles are defined as 5 model years old or newer, and identify the incoming models into the Sweet Spot. 12 Experian Public
Trend of total VIO compared to sweet spot volumes VIO by model year (in millions) 85M vehicles within Sweet Spot (MY2005 2011) Pre-Sweet Spot Post-Sweet Spot 13 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
Sweet Spot changing Manufacturer market share by age groups 14 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
Sweet Spot vehicles, where are they? Index Sweet Spot to total VIO count by state 15 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
Top 10 Sweet Spot commercial vehicles Vocation VIO 16 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. light duty vehicles only)
Vehicles in Operation What s on the road today? Medium and Heavy Duty Trucks 17 Experian Public
What s on the road today? VIO by model year Medium and heavy duty vehicles 32.7% of VIO MY2010+ Vehicles in Operation Q4 2016 7.1 million 68.3% of VIO MY2001+ 83.8% of VIO MY1996+ 18 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only)
Market share by GVW Class and Fuel Type Medium and heavy duty vehicles GVW Class Fuel Type 19 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only)
High level Vocation market share Medium and heavy duty vehicles 20 Experian Public Source: Experian Automotive as of December 31, 2016 (U.S. medium and heavy duty vehicles only)
U.S. Market Overview New registration totals Year over year changes in performance Share by sales category Impact of demographics on purchasing behavior Share across geographies and vehicle segments Brand leaders Experian [Public, Confidential, Internal, Restricted choose the appropriate category]
New Vehicle Registrations (Millions) U.S. passenger car and light truck surpassed 17 million units for the second consecutive year Annual New Registrations New vehicle registrations All Sales Categories Through December 2016 16.02 13.18 11.62 12.70 14.31 15.27 16.26 17.12 17.30 10.15 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 22 Experian Public
% YOY Change Gains in annual new vehicle registrations have been steadily declining since 2012 20% Year over Year Change in New Vehicle Registrations New vehicle registrations All Sales Categories Through December 2016 15% 14.56% 12.65% 10% 5% 0% 9.26% 6.73% 6.52% 5.29% 1.03% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -17.72% -23.05% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 23 Experian Public
Retail registrations were nearly unchanged from 2015, but fleet categories experienced significant gains 2015 vs. 2016 Change by Sales Category New vehicle registrations All Sales Categories Through December 2016 Government 13.69% Commercial/Taxi 5.59% Rental/Lease 0.91% Retail 0.09% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Year Over Year Change 24 Experian Public
% New Individual Retail Registrations The majority of new vehicle buyers in the U.S. are 45 years of age or older 25% Distribution of New Individual Retail Registrations New individual vehicle registrations Through December 2016 20% 21.59% 20.19% 19.52% 17.18% 17.17% 15% 10% 5% 4.35% 0% 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 25 Experian Public
Estimated home value is a strong predictor of vehicle purchase activity within the Exotic and Luxury segments Less than $100,000 $100,000 - $159,999 $160,000 - $199,999 $200,000 - $249,999 $250,000 - $349,999 $350,000 - $449,999 $450,000 - $749,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $1,000,000+ Distribution of New Individual Registrations by Estimated Home Value 3.57% 3.64% 10.52% 11.71% 11.98% 10.57% 13.07% Grand Total Non-Luxury Luxury Exotic 13.86% 18.22% 16.72% 25.11% New individual vehicle registrations Through December 2016 51.59% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Distribution of New Individual Registrations by Estimated Home Value & Vehicle Class 26 Experian Public
Experian s Mosaic lifestyle segmentation is also an excellent predictor of vehicle purchase activity Non-Luxury Luxury New individual vehicle registrations Through December 2016 Experian Mosaic Lifestyles Aging in Aquarius 4.27% American Royalty 12.67% Aging in Place 3.60% Silver Sophisticates 7.69% Fast Track Couples 3.55% Aging in Aquarius 5.01% Unspoiled Splendor 3.42% Platinum Prosperity 4.61% Digital Dependents 3.22% Cosmopolitan Achievers 4.60% No Place Like Home 3.05% Kids and Cabernet 3.79% Silver Sophisticates 2.92% Generational Soup 3.69% Town Elders 2.65% Fast Track Couples 3.33% Boomers and Boomerangs 2.46% Couples with Clout 2.76% Striving Single Scene 2.39% Golf Carts and Gourmets 2.34% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 27 Experian Public
The New York DMA accounted for more than 1 million new vehicle registrations in 2016 and 7.66% share of the market Total Passenger Car / Light Truck Registrations by DMA (2016) New vehicle registrations All Sales Categories Through December 2016 NEW YORK LOS ANGELES CHICAGO PHILADELPHIA DETROIT DALLAS-FT. WORTH BOSTON (MANCHESTER) SAN FRANCISCO-OAK-SAN JOSE HOUSTON MIAMI-FT. LAUDERDALE WASHINGTON, DC (HAGRSTWN) ATLANTA TAMPA-ST. PETE (SARASOTA) PHOENIX (PRESCOTT) ORLANDO-DAYTONA BCH-MELBRN 2.89% 2.73% 2.70% 2.63% 2.45% 2.40% 2.31% 2.27% 2.24% 1.95% 1.76% 1.65% 1.49% 6.86% 7.66% DMA is a registered service mark of The Nielsen Company. Used under license. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 28 Experian Public
Crossover and Sport Utility vehicles remain popular with U.S. consumers accounting for 40% of the market in 2016 2016 Share by Vehicle Type 2016 Share by Vehicle Segment CUV/SUV 40.53% Non-Luxury Small CUV/SUV 17.81% Sedan Pickup 15.32% 30.51% Non-Luxury Mid-Size Sedan Non-Luxury Mid-Size CUV/SUV Non-Luxury Full Pickup 13.89% 13.22% 12.57% Hatchback 4.61% Non-Luxury Small Sedan 11.57% Coupe 2.96% Luxury Mid-Size CUV/SUV 5.09% Minivan All Others Wagon 2.41% 2.11% 1.55% New vehicle registrations All Sales Categories Through December 2016 Experian Segmentation Non-Luxury Small Hatchback Non-Luxury Mid-Size Pickup Non-Luxury Full CUV/SUV Non-Luxury Mid-Size Minivan 4.28% 2.75% 2.49% 2.38% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 29 Experian Public
General Motors out sold Toyota by over 200k units to lead all manufacturers in U.S. market share 2016 U.S. Market Share by Manufacturer New vehicle registrations All Sales Categories Through December 2016 GM 16.91% Toyota 15.46% Ford FCA US LLC Honda 11.19% 11.77% 12.59% Nissan 8.35% Subaru Hyundai Kia VW 4.06% 3.95% 3.76% 3.33% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 30 Experian Public
Toyota out sold Ford by over 130k units to lead all brands in U.S. market share in 2016 New vehicle registrations 2016 U.S. Market Share by Make All Sales Categories Through December 2016 Toyota 12.88% Ford Chevrolet 11.32% 11.94% Honda 10.14% Nissan 7.54% Jeep 5.30% Subaru Hyundai Kia GMC 4.06% 3.95% 3.76% 3.29% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 31 Experian Public
Once again the Ford F150 is the best selling vehicle in America, with over 430k new vehicle registrations Ford F150 2016 U.S. Market Share by Model New vehicle registrations All Sales Categories Through December 2016 3.06% Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Honda Civic Honda CR-V Honda Accord Toyota RAV4 Toyota Camry Toyota Corolla 2.61% 2.53% 2.46% 2.37% 2.31% 2.16% 2.16% Nissan Rogue Ram 1500 1.87% 1.80% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 32 Experian Public
U.S. Loyalty, Conquest and Defections Loyalty trends Impact of demographics on repurchase loyalty Loyalty by owned vehicle type Brand leaders Conquest to defection ratios Experian [Public, Confidential, Internal, Restricted choose the appropriate category]
Across the U.S. auto industry rates of repurchase loyalty have been steadily increasing 70% 60% 59.0% 59.1% 59.5% Industry Loyalty Rates Manufacturer Make Model Dealer Lender Household Methodology All Purchase Types Through November 2016 61.1% 61.3% 62.3% 62.8% 50% 40% 50.6% 49.6% 50.3% 52.2% 52.4% 53.5% 54.5% 30% 20% 19.5% 18.6% 19.4% 20.7% 21.2% 22.0% 23.0% 10% 12.5% 12.0% 13.1% 14.8% 15.3% 15.6% 16.3% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 34 Experian Public
Generally speaking, loyalty rates across vehicle, dealer and lender dimension increase with owner age 80% Household Loyalty Rates by Age Manufacturer Make Model Dealer Lender Household Methodology All Purchase Types Through November 2016 Excludes unmatched and unknown records 70% 60% 50% 58.3% 49.7% 55.4% 47.1% 59.9% 50.8% 64.4% 55.4% 68.2% 59.6% 70.4% 61.9% 40% 30% 20% 19.9% 19.3% 21.5% 24.5% 27.4% 30.5% 10% 0% 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ 35 Experian Public
Manufacturer loyalty falls with rises in estimated home value while loyalty to lenders increases 70% 60% Household Loyalty Rates by Estimated Home Value Manufacturer Make Model Dealer Lender 66.6% 66.4% 65.5% 64.6% 63.3% 61.3% 59.1% Household Methodology All Purchase Types Through November 2016 Excludes unmatched and unknown records 57.0% 56.8% 50% 40% 30% 20% 14.5% 15.5% 16.2% 16.6% 17.5% 18.6% 19.6% 20.6% 21.3% 10% 0% Less Than $100,000 $100,000 - $159,999 $160,000 - $199,999 $200,000 - $249,999 $250,000 - $349,999 $350,000 - $449,000 $450,000 - $749,999 $750,000 - $999,999 $1,000,000+ 36 Experian Public
New vehicle buyers are the most loyal across to their brands, dealers and lenders 80% Repurchase Loyalty by Owned Vehicle Type New Certified Used Non-Certified Used Household Methodology All Purchase Types Through November 2016 70% 60% 50% 40% 68.4% 66.9% 52.5% 61.2% 61.5% 41.8% 35.9% 30% 20% 10% 0% 28.3% 25.3% 24.9% 23.0% 19.4% 13.4% 0.6% Manufacturer Make Model Dealer Lender 3.9% 37 Experian Public
Toyota leads all multi-brand manufactures with 68.7% manufacturer loyalty rate, up 1 percentage point from 2015 Manufacturer Loyalty Household Methodology All Purchase Types Through November 2016 Tesla Toyota Subaru Ford GM Honda FCA US LLC Daimler Kia BMW Nissan Hyundai VW Porsche Tata Volvo Mazda Mitsubishi 29.9% 42.8% 42.5% 51.9% 51.4% 49.4% 68.7% 66.8% 65.7% 64.7% 63.9% 63.7% 62.9% 59.9% 57.8% 57.4% 56.5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 73.6% 38 Experian Public
With a year over year increase in loyalty of 5.7 percentage points, Tesla leads all brands in owner loyalty 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Make Loyalty 48.1% 48.6% 48.6% 49.2% 51.1% 51.4% 53.9% 56.5% 56.7% 57.3% 57.8% Household Methodology All Purchase Types Through November 2016 59.7% 59.9% 61.9% 62.8% 63.0% 64.3% 65.0% 66.8% 73.6% 39 Experian Public
Ram 1500, with a year over year increase in model loyalty of 5.7 percentage points led all models in loyalty Ram 1500 Ford F150 Lincoln MKX Subaru Outback Lincoln MKZ Chevrolet Volt Chevrolet Silverado 1500 Lexus RX350 Lexus ES350 Ram 3500 Nissan Rogue Kia Soul Subaru Forester Honda CR-V smart fortwo Toyota RAV4 Lexus LX570 Acura RDX GMC Sierra 1500 Tesla Model S Model Loyalty 46.3% 45.5% 44.3% 43.9% 43.2% 42.6% 41.9% 40.6% 40.4% 40.4% 40.2% 39.7% 38.7% 38.6% 37.7% 37.7% 37.6% 37.4% 36.8% Household Methodology All Purchase Types Through November 2016 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 50.9% 40 Experian Public
Tata led all multi-brand manufacturers with a conquest to defection ratio of 1.85 to 1 Tesla Subaru Kia Tata Porsche Daimler Mazda Hyundai BMW VW Honda Nissan Volvo FCA US LLC Toyota Mitsubishi Ford GM 2.41 1.85 1.61 1.61 1.36 1.33 1.24 1.22 1.08 1.06 1.06 1.01 0.99 0.99 0.66 0.46 3.44 Manufacturer C/D Ratio Household Methodology All Purchase Types Through November 2016 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 13.77 41 Experian Public
With a loyal owner base and strong conquesting, Tesla leads all manufacturers with a C/D ratio of 13.77 : 1 Tesla Ram Subaru Kia FIAT Maserati Audi Land Rover Mercedes-Benz Lincoln Porsche Jeep Jaguar Mazda Hyundai MINI BMW Lexus Scion Honda GMC Nissan Volvo 2.41 2.09 2.03 1.98 1.92 1.63 1.61 1.61 1.6 1.46 1.36 1.33 1.24 1.22 1.21 1.2 1.11 1.1 1.08 1.06 3.44 4.23 Make C/D Ratio Household Methodology All Purchase Types Through November 2016 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 13.77 Brands not shown had Conquest / Defection ratio less than 1 42 Experian Public
Summary VIO volumes continue to increase even as the Aftermarket Sweet Spot declines to 85M vehicles 4 cylinder vehicles continue to dominate the market thanks to new technologies 2016 new vehicle registrations reached 17.3 million units Growth is slowing as 2016 totals were 1% greater than 2015 Retail market was flat when compared to 2015 Estimated home value is a strong predictor of exotic and luxury vehicle purchase activity General Motors led all manufactures with 16.9% share Toyota led all brands with 12.9% of the market Once again Ford F150 was the best selling vehicle in the U.S. market Repurchase loyalty rates continue to climb across vehicle, dealer and lender dimensions 43 Experian Public
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