December 2017 Oil Market 2017 Year in Review Dinara Millington It has been a turbulent year with natural disasters, geopolitical tensions, and deep political divisions occurring in many countries. Concerning economic growth, however, 2017 ended positively, with gross domestic product (GDP) continuing to accelerate around much of the world in the widest cyclical upswing since the start of the decade. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), growth accelerated in the majority of countries. Of more importance, some of the countries that had high unemployment (for example, several in the eurozone, are participating in the growth surge and experiencing strong employment growth. Some of the larger emerging market economies, such as Argentina, Figure 1: Global GDP Growth Editorial Committee: Ganesh Doluweera, Dinara Millington, Megan Murphy, Allan Fogwill About CERI Founded in 1975, the Canadian Energy Research Institute is an independent, registered charitable organization specializing in the analysis of energy economics and related environmental policy issues in the energy production, transportation, and consumption sectors. Our mission is to provide relevant, independent, and objective economic research of energy and environmental issues to benefit business, government, academia and the public. For more information about CERI, please visit our website at www.ceri.ca or contact us at info@ceri.ca. Brazil, and Russia, exited their recessions. Still, in per capita terms, growth in almost half of emerging markets and developing economies particularly the smaller ones lagged behind advanced economies, and almost a quarter have seen declines. Countries that struggled include fuel exporters and low-income economies suffering from civil strife or natural disasters. Relevant Independent Objective
Page 2 2017 was another volatile year for oil markets, with prices towards the end of the year appearing on track to a sustainable recovery after several false starts. If 2016 was the year of cutting costs, 2017 was finally the year of cutting stocks. Global inventories began drawing consistently. While the data outside of the non-oecd is less transparent, available indicators all point to tightening balances. Figure 2: OECD Total Crude and Product Stocks Source: IEA Oil Market Report data, Figure by CERI. Several notable events also happened that, while not directly impacting oil prices, certainly had an impact on perceptions of global risk and forecasts of future economic growth. Oil markets have generally shrugged off most geopolitical risk since the price crash of 2014, with oversupply being sufficient to cover any potential disruptions. However, as balances have slowly tightened, geopolitical risk is again able to impact crude prices. In this climate, Donald Trump was sworn in as President of the United States while in Europe several elections led to a wave of right-wing party victories. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia has been undergoing significant changes, announcing a new Crown Prince and launching a national corruption crackdown that involved several members of the royal family. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-opec production cuts which started late 2016 took some time to show up in the supply/demand numbers, but later in 2017 helped to push up crude prices as crude inventories started to fall. At its annual November 2017 meeting, OPEC extended the supply deal in place through the end of 2018, placing additional caps on Libyan and Nigerian production. This decision and evidence of compliance has since supported prices at their highest level all year. With world oil prices now back in the mid-$60 range and exporter revenue increasing, there is less pressure on OPEC members to cheat on the deal. The agreement by Libya and Nigeria to restrain their exports will contribute to the agreement s effectiveness. The large share of the production cut that the Saudis are taking, however, is still the key to the production freeze. The big question is if the price increase will incentivize more upstream producers to resume or increase production, specifically US tight oil producers. Questions are being raised over the optimistic US Energy Information Administration (US EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts about the future of US tight oil production. The IEA s Executive Director Fatih Birol recently said shale (oil and gas) production would make the US the undisputed leader of global oil and gas markets for decades to come. 1 Under the Reference Case in their latest Annual Energy Outlook, the EIA is forecasting that it expects US tight oil production to increase by an additional 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2018, leaving total US oil production at 9.3 million barrels per day (MMbpd) (US tight oil production is expected to increase to 4.6 MMbpd in 2018). 2 The production forecast is even higher under the High Resource and Technology scenario. A recently released paper by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), 3 based upon a detailed examination of Bakken oil production, concluded that EIA forecasts for US oil and gas production from new wells will be lower than currently projected. This study has important implications for the future of US tight oil production. The EIA s model assumes that technical advances such as well length and the amount of water and sand used in fracturing will increase output at new wells by roughly 10 percent each year; MIT findings from the Bakken region suggest it s closer to 6.5 percent. Extrapolating from the studies conducted in the Bakken basin, the research suggests that total US oil and natural gas production from new wells could miss the EIA estimate by more than 10 percent in 2020. The overestimates would get progressively worse each year as oil in sweet spots is exhausted, and technology fails to close the gap. There is also the issue of API gravity of US tight oil ratings are too high for many refiners that were retrofitted to handle heavier crude types and it is becoming difficult to market. Even though the US has
Page 3 been exporting between 1 and 2 MMbpd, the tight oil inventories are building in central storage facilities such as Cushing. This could have an impact on continental crude oil prices if the inventories continue to grow. 2017 also marked the year in which US President Donald Trump launched the renegotiation of the 23-year old North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico. 4 On August 16th, after months of threats, taunts and tweets, the first round of talks started in Washington. The sixth round of negotiations started on January 23, 2018 in Montreal. But the threat of the US totally pulling out of NAFTA is still present. The Trump Administration s goal is for the US to achieve energy dominance in global markets. 5 This goal is unrealistic without NAFTA. With an improved NAFTA, it could become a reality. Energy dominance is inherently outward-oriented. Achieving this goal will depend on whether the US can become a competitive exporter of energy not just oil but gas and even electricity that other countries depend on for their energy needs to such an extent that the US becomes a preferred supplier of energy in global markets. Endnotes 1 Peak Oil Review: December 4, 2017 http:// www.resilience.org/stories/2017-12-04/peak-oil-reviewdecember-4-2017/ 2 US EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2017, Table 14. https:// www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=14- AEO2017&cases=ref2017&sourcekey=0 3 Montgomery, J.B. and F.M. O Sullivan. Spatial variability of tight oil well productivity and the impact of technology, Applied Energy 195 (2017) 344 355. 4 The Economist, The North American Free-Trade Agreement renegotiation begins (17 August 2017), online: <https://www.economist.com/news/finance-andeconomics/21726711-rewriting-north-americas-traderules-will-not-be-easy-north-american-free-trade>. 5 USA Today, Trump: U.S. will be energy dominant, online: https://www.usatoday.com/story/ news/2017/06/29/donald-trump-u-s-energydominant/440494001/ Attention is now turning to where oil markets are likely to go in 2018. There is mixed opinion with some analysts seeing oil prices climbing into the $70 range as global oil markets continue to tighten and there is no longer a threat of a sudden surge in oil production. Fear of increased geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East will continue to contribute to higher prices. Others argue that prices will fall in the next six months as winter demand falls and US shale oil production increases in the second quarter. This remains to be seen. Relevant Independent Objective
Page 4 US$/bbl 80 WTI Spot - WTI Edmonton Crude - Brent Prices Light Price Price Differentials (US$/bbl) US$/bbl 9 US$/bbl 70 WTI - Edmonton Light Price Differentials (US$/bbl) 70 60 50 40 30 Brent-WTI Differential WTI Brent 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 60 50 40 30 20 10 Differential WTI Edmonton Light -1 0 20-2 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Spot Prices WTI Brent Cdn.Light* Cdn. Heavy* Year-to-Date 62.56 68.94 48.16 39.16 Quarter-to-Date 55.27 61.40 52.60 38.47 SOURCE: EIA. January 16, 2018 63.82 69.40 58.61 37.36 SOURCE: EIA. US$/bbl 70 WTI - Canadian WTI - Hardisty Heavy Heavy Benchmark Price (US$/bbl) Differentials US$/bbl 66 NYMEX WTI Crude Forward Curve 4 contract months 60 Differential WTI WCS 64 50 62 40 60 30 58 20 10 0-10 56 Nov 13, 2017 Dec 11, 2017 Jan 10, 2018 54 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 52 1 2 3 4 SOURCE: NRCan, EIA, Baytex. SOURCE: EIA, CERI.
SOURCE: EIA, CERI. SOURCE: NRCan. Page 5 NYMEX Petroleum Products CDN/US$ Exchange Rate US$/gal 2.25 2.00 CDN/US$ 1.50 1.40 1.30 1.75 1.20 1.50 1.25 1.10 1.00 0.90 1.00 RBOB Gasoline Heating Oil 0.75 0.50 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 0.80 0.70 0.60 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 NYMEX Prices Unleaded Gasoline Heating Oil Year-to-Date 1.8206 2.0711 Quarter-to-Date 1.7124 1.8878 January 17, 2018 1.8580 2.0690 Oil Demand Global in Selected Oil Demand Countries US Products Demand December 2016 - December 2017 Y-on-Y change MMbpd 110 100 90 53.0% 52.5% % 25% 20% 80 70 52.0% 15% 60 50 51.5% 10% 40 51.0% 5% 30 20 10 0 50.5% 50.0% 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 0% -5% Total Gasoline Jet Fuel Distillate Residual Propane Other Total OECD Total Non-OECD non-oecd Demand share SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report. SOURCE: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Relevant Independent Objective
SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report, CERI. SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report. SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report. SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report. Page 6 Global Oil Supply MMbpd 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 non-opec Supply OPEC Supply non-opec Share of Global Supply Canadian Oil Production by product Mbpd 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 AB L/M/H AB Bitumen SK Other NGLs Synthetic 60.5% 60.0% 59.5% 59.0% 58.5% 58.0% 57.5% 57.0% Mbpd 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Mbpd 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 US Oil Production by region 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 Alaska California Texas Federal GOM Other Lower 48 NGLs Other OECD Commercial Stocks by region Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific
SOURCE: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. SOURCE: IEA Oil Market Report. Page 7 MMb 30.0 20.0 10.0 0.0-10.0-20.0-30.0-40.0 US Commercial Stocks November 24- December 29, 2017 M-on-M Change Crude Gasoline Distillate Products Total MMb 195 192.5 190 187.5 185 182.5 180 177.5 175 Canadian Stocks on Land 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 Relevant Independent Objective
Page 8 World Supply and Demand Balance (MMbpd) 2015 2016 2017 2018 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 World Demand 95.0 96.3 97.8 99.1 95.6 95.8 96.9 97.0 96.7 98.0 98.3 98.3 98.0 98.8 99.7 100.0 OECD 46.4 46.9 47.3 47.3 46.8 46.1 47.3 47.4 47.0 47.0 47.6 47.5 46.9 46.8 47.7 47.6 non-oecd 48.5 49.4 50.6 51.9 48.8 49.7 49.6 49.5 49.8 51.0 50.7 50.7 51.1 52.0 52.0 52.4 World Supply 96.6 97.0 97.4 99.6 96.6 96.1 97.0 98.2 96.6 96.9 97.9 98.0 98.6 99.3 100.1 100.4 Non-OPEC 58.1 57.4 58.0 59.6 57.7 56.7 57.2 58.0 57.7 57.7 58.2 58.4 58.8 59.4 59.9 60.3 OPEC NGLs 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.6 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 OPEC Crude 27.7 28.4 28.0-4.5 32.3 32.5 32.9 33.4 32.1 32.3 32.7 32.7 32.8 32.9 33.2 33.1 Supply - Demand 1 1.6 0.7-0.4 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.1 1.2-0.1-1.1-0.4 OECD Stocks (MMbbls) 3015 3046 3052 3060 2985 3030 3016 2980 2968 2993 3016 3032 Days Cover 64 66 65 65 64 64 63 63 63 64 63 64 OPEC Crude Oil Production (MMbpd) Sustainable Production Spare Capacity vs Production Capacity Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Saudi Arabia 12.20 9.97 10.05 9.97 2.23 2.15 2.23 Iran 3.75 3.84 3.78 3.80-0.09-0.03-0.05 UAE 3.14 2.93 2.93 2.90 0.21 0.21 0.24 Kuwait 2.93 2.71 2.70 2.71 0.22 0.23 0.22 Qatar 0.67 0.58 0.61 0.61 0.09 0.06 0.06 Angola 1.78 1.66 1.68 1.62 0.12 0.10 0.16 Nigeria 1.70 1.61 1.58 1.64 0.09 0.12 0.06 Libya 0.65 0.92 0.99 0.97-0.27-0.34-0.32 Algeria 1.13 1.06 1.00 1.01 0.07 0.13 0.12 Equatorial Guinea 0.14 0.13 0.14 0.13 0.01 0.00 0.01 Ecuador 0.56 0.54 0.53 0.54 0.02 0.03 0.02 Venezuela 2.20 1.94 1.89 1.84 0.26 0.31 0.36 Gabon 0.23 0.19 0.21 0.20 0.04 0.02 0.03 OPEC. Excl. Iraq 31.08 28.08 28.09 27.94 3.00 2.99 3.14 Iraq1 4.66 4.49 4.40 4.42 0.17 0.26 0.24 Total OPEC 35.60 32.57 32.49 32.36 3.03 3.11 3.24 WTI Price Projections ($US/barrel) 2016 2017 2018 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 High Price Case 64.35 62.70 64.90 64.90 64.90 66.00 Reference Case 43.33 50.90 58.50 49.23 51.70 48.11 48.16 55.35 57.00 59.00 59.00 59.00 60.00 Low Price Case 49.73 48.45 50.15 50.15 50.15 51.00
Page 9 Data Appendix Relevant Independent Objective
Page 10 A1: Historic Light Sweet Crude Futures Prices ($US per barrel) NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) 2015 49.68 49.80 51.41 53.75-0.78 2016 42.28 42.15 42.01 44.80-0.98 2017 50.29 50.27 50.17 51.80-0.44 4Q 2016 47.30 47.03 46.91 49.12-0.58 1Q 2017 52.90 52.44 52.19 54.65-0.80 2Q 2017 49.45 49.76 50.08 51.66-0.44 3Q 2017 45.89 46.22 46.87 48.05-0.20 4Q 2017 52.90 52.67 51.53 52.86-0.33 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 11.8% 12.0% 9.9% 7.6% Jan-17 52.23 52.08 50.63 53.49-0.99 Feb-17 52.42 51.62 52.75 55.39-0.87 Mar-17 54.06 53.61 53.18 55.08-0.55 Apr-17 47.34 48.11 51.12 52.81-0.50 May-17 50.27 51.04 50.72 52.33-0.46 Jun-17 50.73 50.14 48.40 49.84-0.35 Jul-17 43.23 44.06 47.11 48.32-0.23 Aug-17 46.79 46.77 45.12 46.35-0.21 Sep-17 47.64 47.84 48.40 49.46-0.15 Oct-17 50.41 49.93 48.34 49.99-0.46 Nov-17 51.47 51.60 51.17 52.44-0.31 Dec-17 56.83 56.49 55.10 56.14-0.21 Jan-18 58.09 57.57 57.42 58.07-0.05 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 11.2% 10.5% 13.4% 8.6% A2: Historic Crude Product Futures Prices ( US per gallon) NYMEX Unleaded Gasoline NYMEX Heating Oil Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread Last 3 Day Avg. When 12-Month Spread Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) Close Average Near Mo. Strip Avg. (1-2 Mo.) 2015 168.8 166.0 166.4 157.8 0.5 174.8 171.9 173.2 179.6 0.5 2016 138.4 138.7 136.9 133.2-1.9 133.8 133.8 132.1 141.7-1.6 2017 167.1 165.3 161.4 154.8-0.2 166.7 166.5 164.0 170.7-0.6 4Q 2016 143.8 144.7 142.1 133.9 1.6 153.2 152.0 148.9 158.2-1.5 1Q 2017 157.3 157.0 155.9 168.2-8.6 164.6 165.0 164.9 172.9-1.4 2Q 2017 162.0 162.6 163.0 155.5-0.5 153.1 153.9 154.7 162.1-0.6 3Q 2017 178.7 170.2 157.2 137.2 5.1 162.9 159.4 152.8 159.6-0.5 4Q 2017 170.5 171.5 169.5 158.3 3.2 186.3 187.6 183.7 188.1 0.2 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 18.6% 18.5% 19.3% 18.2% 21.7% 23.4% 23.4% 18.9% Jan-17 168.2 167.0 156.9 166.2-1.2 170.4 170.2 166.2 174.2-1.7 Feb-17 152.6 152.0 157.5 169.9-2.5 161.2 161.3 164.4 172.4-1.5 Mar-17 151.2 152.0 153.4 168.5-22.0 162.1 163.4 164.1 171.9-1.0 Apr-17 170.0 168.4 162.9 157.3-1.6 157.4 155.8 153.6 161.1-0.7 May-17 154.8 156.3 168.1 160.0-0.1 150.4 151.6 159.0 166.4-0.7 Jun-17 161.2 163.1 158.1 149.2 0.3 151.5 154.2 151.4 158.8-0.6 Jul-17 151.5 149.5 148.2 132.1 0.8 147.6 145.2 142.6 150.4-0.8 Aug-17 170.6 167.6 157.1 137.2 2.4 165.2 163.2 152.6 159.6-0.5 Sep-17 214.0 193.6 166.3 142.2 12.0 175.8 169.9 163.1 168.9-0.1 Oct-17 160.7 163.1 166.3 150.5 5.5 181.2 183.0 179.1 182.5 0.9 Nov-17 178.0 177.1 165.2 154.7 2.8 188.5 187.7 180.2 185.1 0.1 Dec-17 172.8 174.4 177.1 169.8 1.3 189.3 192.2 191.8 196.8-0.3 Jan-18 179.9 179.5 172.1 180.7-1.2 207.6 205.6 194.9 198.2 0.0 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 7.0% 7.5% 9.7% 8.8% 21.8% 20.8% 17.3% 13.8% Notes (Tables A1 and A2): Prices are listed by contract month. Close: final contract close on the last day of trading. Last 3 Day Average Close: simple average contract close on last three days of trading. Average When Near Month: simple average closing price on trading days when contract was near month. 12-Month Strip Average: simple average of daily near 12-month contract closing prices in a given contract month. Spread: difference between one-month and two-month forward prices in a given period. Source: New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
Page 11 A3: World Crude Oil Contract Prices (FOB, $US per barrel) Saudi U.A.E. Oman U.K. Norway Russia Venez. Kuwait Ecuador Mexico Nigeria Indon. Arab Lgt Dubai Oman Brent Ekofisk Urals 1 T.J. Light Blend Oriente Isthmus Bonny Lgt Minas 2015 49.87 50.96 51.24 52.44 53.20 51.94 41.17 48.15 44.97 51.14 52.99 49.24 2016 40.89 41.32 41.89 43.69 43.97 42.09 33.96 39.22 38.36 42.31 43.95 41.05 2017 52.68 53.20 53.45 54.25 54.55 53.35 47.69 51.68 50.07 54.67 54.64 49.07 4Q 2016 47.83 48.33 48.81 49.48 49.41 48.12 42.53 46.70 45.45 49.79 49.98 45.20 1Q 2017 52.20 53.11 53.61 53.75 53.74 52.34 45.99 51.40 48.52 54.44 54.04 50.06 2Q 2017 48.72 49.89 49.96 49.82 49.80 48.70 44.60 47.94 46.24 51.29 50.24 45.52 3Q 2017 50.01 50.45 50.65 52.08 52.69 51.34 45.97 49.04 47.99 52.96 52.30 46.36 4Q 2017 59.77 59.35 59.55 61.35 61.97 61.03 54.20 58.34 57.55 60.00 61.97 54.33 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 25.0% 22.8% 22.0% 24.0% 25.4% 26.8% 27.4% 24.9% 26.6% 20.5% 24.0% 20.2% Dec-16 51.92 52.08 52.72 53.57 53.67 52.28 45.86 50.93 48.67 53.81 53.91 49.68 Jan-17 52.29 53.71 54.01 54.58 54.62 53.42 46.81 51.48 48.64 54.98 54.98 50.63 Feb-17 53.63 54.41 55.12 55.06 55.10 53.67 47.03 52.85 50.08 56.09 55.24 51.19 Mar-17 50.68 51.21 51.71 51.60 51.50 49.94 44.14 49.87 46.83 52.26 51.91 48.35 Apr-17 51.64 52.31 52.82 52.59 52.57 51.55 46.15 50.81 48.70 53.81 53.02 47.95 May-17 49.30 50.97 50.57 50.45 50.43 49.04 45.16 48.65 46.91 51.85 50.77 45.96 Jun-17 45.21 46.38 46.50 46.42 46.40 45.52 42.49 44.37 43.11 48.21 46.92 42.65 Jul-17 47.12 47.59 47.63 48.51 48.63 47.82 43.41 46.19 45.21 50.75 48.66 43.96 Aug-17 49.63 50.24 50.37 51.66 52.30 51.30 45.38 48.70 47.45 52.92 51.69 45.91 Sep-17 53.29 53.51 53.95 56.07 57.15 54.89 49.13 52.23 51.30 55.20 56.55 49.20 Oct-17 55.73 55.63 55.63 57.28 57.85 56.81 50.70 54.50 53.77 56.08 57.97 50.55 Nov-17 61.08 60.81 60.84 62.63 63.28 62.53 55.86 59.58 59.23 61.35 63.29 55.50 Dec-17 62.50 61.61 62.19 64.14 64.79 63.75 56.04 60.94 59.66 62.57 64.64 56.95 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 20.4% 18.3% 18.0% 19.7% 20.7% 21.9% 22.2% 19.7% 22.6% 16.3% 19.9% 14.6% Notes: 1. Urals is Delivered price at Mediterranean. Contract prices are based on prices at the end of each month. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. A4: North American Posted Crude Prices (FOB, $US per barrel) United States Canada ANS 1 Lost Hills Kern R. WTI WTS GCS Okla. Sw. Kans. Sw. Mich. So. Wyo. Sw. CDN Sweet 2 CDN Heavy 3 2015 51.64 50.91 42.28 45.63 40.63 39.38 45.63 44.40 37.63 42.34 44.83 35.71 2016 33.46 43.80 35.82 41.08 36.08 34.83 41.08 40.08 33.08 40.50 39.44 28.85 2017 44.08 55.37 47.12 48.40 43.40 42.50 48.40 47.48 40.40 48.22 0.00 0.00 4Q 2016 39.14 49.81 41.23 46.08 41.08 39.83 46.08 45.08 38.08 45.83 45.53 34.29 1Q 2017 43.48 53.40 45.50 48.67 43.67 42.42 48.67 47.67 40.67 48.44 48.95 38.22 2Q 2017 44.34 49.43 42.43 44.50 39.50 38.25 44.50 43.83 36.50 44.64 45.78 42.43 3Q 2017 41.90 54.02 45.38 46.17 41.17 41.33 46.17 45.08 38.17 45.81 45.57 37.70 4Q 2017 46.58 64.63 55.15 54.25 49.25 48.00 54.25 53.33 46.25 54.01 52.65 38.35 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 19.0% 29.8% 33.8% 17.7% 19.9% 20.5% 17.7% 18.3% 21.4% 17.8% 15.6% 11.9% Dec-16 43.57 53.98 45.35 49.25 44.25 43.00 49.25 48.50 41.25 49.20 48.14 36.46 Jan-17 38.14 53.59 45.45 49.00 44.00 42.75 49.00 48.25 41.00 48.88 49.53 38.81 Feb-17 46.15 54.54 46.70 50.00 45.00 43.75 50.00 48.75 42.00 49.58 50.33 39.53 Mar-17 46.15 52.06 44.35 47.00 42.00 40.75 47.00 46.00 39.00 46.85 47.03 36.34 Apr-17 45.79 49.79 43.15 45.75 40.75 39.50 45.75 44.75 37.75 45.58 46.61 40.81 May-17 43.22 51.01 43.80 46.25 41.25 40.00 46.25 45.25 38.25 46.05 48.43 51.35 Jun-17 44.02 47.50 40.35 41.50 36.50 35.25 41.50 41.50 33.50 42.29 42.20 34.91 Jul-17 42.79 51.92 44.00 46.25 41.25 44.00 46.25 45.25 38.25 45.96 44.10 36.96 Aug-17 41.46 52.25 43.25 44.00 39.00 37.75 44.00 42.75 36.00 43.54 45.01 37.95 Sep-17 41.46 57.88 48.90 48.25 43.25 42.25 48.25 47.25 40.25 47.92 47.63 38.18 Oct-17 43.11 60.36 51.70 50.25 45.25 44.00 50.25 49.50 42.25 50.15 50.34 39.87 Nov-17 47.18 65.66 55.90 55.50 50.50 49.25 55.50 54.50 47.50 55.20 55.17 41.47 Dec-17 49.44 67.88 57.85 57.00 52.00 50.75 57.00 56.00 49.00 56.67 52.41 33.74 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 13.5% 25.8% 27.6% 15.7% 17.5% 18.0% 15.7% 15.5% 18.8% 15.2% 8.9% -7.5% Notes: 1. ANS is Delivered price on US West Coast. 2. As of August 2016, Edmonton Light Sweet is referred to as Canadian Sweet. 3. As of August 2016, Western Canadian Select is referred to as Canadian Heavy. Posted prices are based on price at the end of each month. Sources: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada. Relevant Independent Objective
Page 12 A5: Crude Oil Quality Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel) Light vs. Heavy Sweet vs. Sour Arab Lt Arab Hv Diff. Isthmus Maya Diff. CDN Sweet 1 CDN Heavy 2 Diff. GCS WTS Diff. 2015 49.87 47.02 2.85 51.14 44.77 6.37 44.83 35.71 9.13 39.38 40.63-1.25 2016 40.89 38.36 2.52 42.31 36.98 5.34 39.44 28.85 10.59 34.83 36.08-1.25 2017 52.68 51.06 1.62 54.67 47.69 6.98 0.00 0.00 0.00 42.50 43.40-0.90 4Q 2016 47.83 45.64 2.19 49.79 43.36 6.43 45.53 34.29 11.24 39.83 41.08-1.25 1Q 2017 52.20 50.46 1.74 54.44 45.42 9.03 48.95 38.22 10.74 42.42 43.67-1.25 2Q 2017 48.72 47.18 1.54 51.29 44.33 6.96 45.78 42.43 3.35 38.25 39.50-1.25 3Q 2017 50.01 48.70 1.32 52.96 47.20 5.76 45.57 37.70 7.87 41.33 41.17 0.17 4Q 2017 59.77 57.88 1.89 60.00 53.81 6.19 52.65 38.35 14.30 48.00 49.25-1.25 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 25.0% 26.8% 20.5% 24.1% 15.6% 11.9% 20.5% 19.9% Dec-16 51.92 49.70 2.22 53.81 45.99 7.82 48.14 36.46 11.68 43.00 44.25-1.25 Jan-17 52.29 50.56 1.73 54.98 46.58 8.40 49.53 38.81 10.73 42.75 44.00-1.25 Feb-17 53.63 51.97 1.66 56.09 46.55 9.54 50.33 39.53 10.79 43.75 45.00-1.25 Mar-17 50.68 48.86 1.82 52.26 43.12 9.14 47.03 36.34 10.69 40.75 42.00-1.25 Apr-17 51.64 49.97 1.67 53.81 44.90 8.91 46.61 40.81 5.80 39.50 40.75-1.25 May-17 49.30 47.92 1.38 51.85 45.60 6.25 48.43 51.35-2.92 40.00 41.25-1.25 Jun-17 45.21 43.64 1.57 48.21 42.50 5.71 42.20 34.91 7.29 35.25 36.50-1.25 Jul-17 47.12 45.76 1.36 50.75 45.15 5.60 44.10 36.96 7.14 44.00 41.25 2.75 Aug-17 49.63 48.55 1.08 52.92 46.91 6.01 45.01 37.95 7.06 37.75 39.00-1.25 Sep-17 53.29 51.78 1.51 55.20 49.54 5.66 47.63 38.18 9.45 42.25 43.25-1.00 Oct-17 55.73 53.99 1.74 56.08 50.03 6.05 50.34 39.87 10.47 44.00 45.25-1.25 Nov-17 61.08 59.03 2.05 61.35 55.49 5.86 55.17 41.47 13.70 49.25 50.50-1.25 Dec-17 62.50 60.63 1.87 62.57 55.92 6.65 52.41 33.74 18.67 50.75 52.00-1.25 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 20.4% 22.0% 16.3% 21.6% 8.9% -7.5% 18.0% 17.5% Notes: 1. As of August 2016, Edmonton Light Sweet is referred to as Canadian Sweet. 2. As of August 2016, Western Canadian Select is referred to as Canadian Heavy. Sources: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report: Oil & Gas Journal; Natural Resources Canada. A6: Crude Oil Spot Prices and Differentials (FOB, $US per barrel) Spot Prices Differentials WTI Brent Dubai Urals Basket 1 WTI-Brent WTI-Dubai WTI-Urals WTI-Basket 2015 48.71 52.37 50.84 51.50 49.52-2.69-1.16-1.82 0.16 2016 43.33 43.72 41.46 42.11 40.68-1.44 0.82 0.17 1.59 2017 50.90 54.23 53.19 53.34 52.51-3.95-2.90-3.05-2.23 4Q 2016 49.23 49.35 48.27 47.99 47.59-2.05-0.97-0.69-0.29 1Q 2017 51.70 53.66 53.01 52.25 52.03-0.76-0.11 0.65 0.87 2Q 2017 48.11 49.58 49.71 48.46 48.59-0.13-0.26 0.99 0.85 3Q 2017 48.16 52.06 50.46 51.34 49.99-6.17-4.57-5.45-4.10 4Q 2017 55.35 61.35 59.34 61.03 59.43-8.45-6.44-8.13-6.53 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 12.4% 24.3% 22.9% 27.2% 24.9% Dec-16 52.02 53.57 52.08 52.29 51.67-1.34 0.15-0.06 0.56 Jan-17 52.51 54.58 53.68 53.42 52.40-2.16-1.26-1.00 0.02 Feb-17 53.40 55.06 54.41 53.67 53.37-1.00-0.35 0.39 0.69 Mar-17 49.58 51.60 51.21 49.94 50.32-4.26-3.87-2.60-2.98 Apr-17 51.06 52.46 52.31 51.41 51.37-2.19-2.04-1.14-1.10 May-17 48.50 50.42 50.58 49.01 49.20 0.31 0.15 1.72 1.53 Jun-17 45.17 46.42 46.48 45.52 45.21-3.19-3.25-2.29-1.98 Jul-17 46.65 48.51 47.59 47.82 46.93-1.72-0.80-1.03-0.14 Aug-17 48.03 51.64 50.24 51.29 49.60-4.00-2.60-3.65-1.96 Sep-17 49.83 56.07 53.71 54.89 53.44-5.66-3.30-4.48-3.03 Oct-17 51.57 57.28 55.60 56.81 55.50-5.81-4.13-5.34-4.03 Nov-17 56.54 62.63 60.81 62.53 60.74-5.80-3.98-5.70-3.91 Dec-17 57.94 64.14 61.61 63.75 62.06-6.05-3.52-5.66-3.97 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 11.4% 19.7% 18.3% 21.9% 20.1% Notes: 1. OPEC-Reference Basket is average price of seven crude streams: Algeria Saharan Blend, Dubai Fateh, Indonesia Minas, Mexico Isthmus, Nigeria Bonny Light, Saudi Arabia Light and Venezuela Tia Juana Light. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.
Page 13 A7: World Petroleum Product Spot Prices ($US per barrel) US Gulf Coast, Pipeline Rotterdam, Barges Singapore, Cargoes Gasoline 1 No. 6 3% 2 Jet/Ker. Gasoline 1 Gasoil Resid. 3 Gasoline 1 Gasoil Resid. 3 2014 106.68 82.82 113.30 108.16 112.63 81.04 110.75 112.53 87.22 2015 66.94 40.73 63.86 67.02 65.48 37.85 69.09 64.47 44.55 2016 56.84 32.12 52.43 54.02 52.37 30.62 56.20 52.24 35.63 3Q 2016 59.62 34.88 54.44 54.76 54.10 34.39 54.72 54.11 37.88 4Q 2016 60.99 41.20 59.92 58.98 60.01 39.77 62.83 60.27 45.42 1Q 2017 65.10 44.58 63.18 63.48 63.31 43.24 67.71 64.85 49.04 2Q 2017 65.69 42.50 58.71 62.74 59.21 41.85 63.82 61.02 46.69 3Q 2017 69.74 45.40 66.61 65.49 63.39 45.78 66.52 64.27 48.45 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 17.0% 30.2% 22.4% 19.6% 17.2% 33.1% 21.6% 18.8% 27.9% Nov-16 54.80 38.15 56.11 55.00 55.98 36.80 58.99 56.84 42.36 Dec-16 65.66 45.22 62.80 61.75 63.51 43.58 66.68 62.91 50.27 Jan-17 66.52 45.76 63.70 64.20 63.94 44.35 69.47 65.15 51.28 Feb-17 65.04 45.94 65.58 66.04 65.20 44.45 69.90 66.76 49.87 Mar-17 63.91 42.42 60.75 60.60 61.09 41.16 64.28 62.94 46.38 Apr-17 69.66 43.68 63.27 65.91 62.88 42.99 67.66 64.68 48.11 May-17 66.12 42.98 59.04 62.86 59.80 41.88 64.40 61.19 46.76 Jun-17 61.83 41.01 54.46 60.04 55.65 40.90 59.78 57.54 45.33 Jul-17 65.79 43.89 60.07 60.78 59.09 43.52 61.76 61.05 46.32 Aug-17 70.77 44.85 66.44 65.64 62.25 45.40 67.51 63.51 47.84 Sep-17 72.51 47.56 73.33 70.04 68.89 48.44 70.43 68.49 51.37 Oct-17 69.29 48.32 69.53 66.56 68.65 48.79 70.04 68.61 52.56 Nov-17 73.70 54.14 73.92 73.35 74.13 53.27 75.59 73.14 57.59 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 34.5% 41.9% 31.7% 33.4% 32.4% 44.8% 28.1% 28.7% 36.0% Notes: 1. Regular unleaded gasoline. 2. Waterborne 3. High Sulfur (3.5-4.0%) Residual Fuel Oil. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: IEA Oil Market Report. A8: Product Spot Prices in Selected American Cities ( US per gallon) NY Harbor US Gulf Los Angeles Gasoline 1 No. 2 H.O. Distill. Gasoline 1 Jet Fuel Distill. Gasoline 1 Distill. 2015 161.18 154.68 166.33 155.30 152.55 157.92 194.58 166.03 2016 139.08 128.35 135.14 133.18 124.92 131.75 145.38 138.67 2017 163.95 157.98 165.78 160.43 156.14 162.23 173.10 170.64 4Q 2016 153.93 147.70 155.47 145.73 143.47 152.23 151.77 160.83 1Q 2017 155.30 153.50 159.17 155.30 150.20 156.77 169.60 163.47 2Q 2017 153.20 143.63 150.57 152.40 140.57 147.53 171.40 154.87 3Q 2017 170.57 155.00 164.77 163.63 159.27 162.13 176.63 172.73 4Q 2017 176.73 179.77 188.63 170.37 174.53 182.47 174.77 191.50 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 14.8% 21.7% 21.3% 16.9% 21.7% 19.9% 15.2% 19.1% Dec-16 163.40 155.30 164.20 156.60 149.10 159.60 150.00 165.60 Jan-17 162.00 155.10 162.30 159.30 151.40 159.30 161.20 167.10 Feb-17 154.70 156.20 162.40 154.30 154.70 160.80 175.60 167.00 Mar-17 149.20 149.20 152.80 152.30 144.50 150.20 172.00 156.30 Apr-17 161.10 152.30 158.60 162.10 151.00 155.80 177.70 163.90 May-17 154.00 145.40 151.40 151.90 141.20 148.20 174.60 154.70 Jun-17 144.50 133.20 141.70 143.20 129.50 138.60 161.90 146.00 Jul-17 156.20 142.30 152.10 151.80 141.70 148.60 166.90 157.00 Aug-17 168.80 151.90 163.10 163.80 156.10 160.10 180.70 169.70 Sep-17 186.70 170.80 179.10 175.30 180.00 177.70 182.30 191.50 Oct-17 171.50 170.70 179.90 165.20 165.90 175.60 176.10 186.30 Nov-17 183.00 182.30 191.60 175.70 176.00 185.10 183.60 197.50 Dec-17 175.70 186.30 194.40 170.20 181.70 186.70 164.60 190.70 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 7.5% 20.0% 18.4% 8.7% 21.9% 17.0% 9.7% 15.2% Notes: 1. Reformulated regular unleaded gasoline. Spot prices are based on average daily prices over a specific timeframe. Source: EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Relevant Independent Objective
Page 14 B1: World Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day) OECD Non-OECD OPEC World Americas Europe Asia Ocean. Total 1 Asia Non-Asia FSU Total 1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total 2 Total 3 Demand 2012 23.6 13.8 8.5 45.9 19.8 12.0 4.6 36.4 5.1 3.0 8.2 90.7 2013 24.2 13.6 8.3 46.1 20.7 12.0 4.5 37.2 5.3 3.1 8.5 91.7 2014 24.2 13.5 8.1 45.8 21.1 12.7 4.6 38.4 5.5 3.2 8.9 93.1 2015 24.6 13.8 8.1 46.4 22.5 12.4 4.5 39.4 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.0 2016 24.7 14.0 8.1 46.9 23.2 11.9 4.8 39.9 6.0 3.5 9.6 96.3 3Q 2015 25.0 14.2 7.7 46.9 22.4 12.8 4.8 40.0 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.9 4Q 2015 24.5 13.7 8.2 46.5 23.0 12.3 4.7 40.0 5.8 3.4 9.2 95.7 1Q 2016 24.6 13.6 8.6 46.8 23.2 11.5 4.6 39.3 6.0 3.5 9.6 95.6 2Q 2016 24.5 13.9 7.7 46.1 23.5 12.1 4.6 40.2 6.0 3.5 9.6 95.8 3Q 2016 25.1 14.4 7.8 47.3 22.7 12.3 4.9 39.9 6.0 3.5 9.6 96.9 4Q 2016 24.8 14.2 8.4 47.4 23.3 11.6 4.9 39.8 6.0 3.5 9.6 97.0 1Q 2017 24.5 13.9 8.6 47.0 24.0 11.1 4.6 39.8 6.2 3.7 10.0 96.7 2Q 2017 25.0 14.3 7.8 47.0 24.4 11.7 4.7 40.9 6.2 3.7 10.0 98.0 3Q 2017 25.0 14.7 7.9 47.6 23.7 12.1 5.0 40.9 6.2 3.7 10.0 98.3 Supply 2012 15.8 3.5 0.6 21.0 6.9 8.0 13.8 29.6 26.2 10.6 37.6 90.9 2013 17.2 3.3 0.5 22.2 7.7 7.7 13.8 30.2 26.2 9.8 36.7 91.2 2014 19.1 3.3 0.5 24.1 7.7 7.6 13.9 30.2 26.8 9.0 37.5 93.6 2015 20.0 3.5 0.5 25.1 7.9 7.8 14.1 30.8 28.2 8.7 38.1 96.5 2016 19.5 3.5 0.4 24.6 7.6 7.6 14.2 30.5 30.1 7.2 39.6 97.0 3Q 2015 20.1 3.4 0.5 25.2 7.8 8.0 13.9 30.7 28.7 8.6 39.1 97.2 4Q 2015 20.1 3.6 0.5 25.4 7.9 7.9 14.1 30.9 28.6 8.7 39.2 97.4 1Q 2016 19.9 3.6 0.4 25.3 7.8 7.4 14.3 30.5 28.9 8.5 39.6 96.6 2Q 2016 19.0 3.4 0.4 24.1 7.6 7.4 14.1 30.2 29.8 8.0 39.9 96.1 3Q 2016 19.3 3.3 0.4 24.3 7.4 7.7 14.0 30.2 30.6 7.7 39.5 97.0 4Q 2016 19.7 3.6 0.4 25.0 7.4 7.7 14.6 30.7 30.8 7.3 40.0 98.2 1Q 2017 19.9 3.7 0.4 25.2 7.4 7.6 14.5 30.6 29.6 7.2 38.9 96.6 2Q 2017 19.8 3.5 0.4 24.8 7.4 7.5 14.4 30.4 29.7 7.3 39.2 96.9 3Q 2017 20.2 3.4 0.4 25.1 7.2 7.6 14.3 30.2 29.8 7.7 39.6 97.9 Balance 2012-7.8-10.3-7.9-24.9-12.9-4.0 9.2-6.8 21.1 7.6 29.4 0.2 2013-7.0-10.3-7.8-23.9-13.0-4.3 9.3-7.0 20.9 6.7 28.2-0.5 2014-5.1-10.2-7.6-21.7-13.4-5.1 9.3-8.2 21.2 5.7 28.6 0.5 2015-4.6-10.3-7.6-21.3-14.6-4.6 9.6-8.6 22.4 5.3 28.9 1.5 2016-5.2-10.5-7.7-22.3-15.6-4.3 9.4-9.4 24.1 3.7 30.0 0.7 3Q 2015-4.9-10.8-7.2-21.7-14.6-4.8 9.1-9.3 22.9 5.2 29.9 1.3 4Q 2015-4.4-10.1-7.7-21.1-15.1-4.4 9.4-9.1 22.9 5.3 29.9 1.7 1Q 2016-4.7-10.0-8.2-21.5-15.4-4.1 9.7-8.7 22.9 5.0 30.0 1.0 2Q 2016-5.5-10.5-7.3-22.0-15.9-4.7 9.5-10.0 23.8 4.5 30.3 0.3 3Q 2016-5.8-11.1-7.4-23.0-15.3-4.6 9.1-9.7 24.6 4.2 29.9 0.1 4Q 2016-5.1-10.6-8.0-22.4-15.9-3.9 9.7-9.0 24.8 3.7 30.4 1.2 1Q 2017-4.6-10.2-8.2-21.8-16.6-3.5 9.9-9.2 23.4 3.5 28.9-0.1 2Q 2017-5.2-10.8-7.4-22.2-17.0-4.2 9.7-10.5 23.5 3.7 29.2-1.1 3Q 2017-4.8-11.3-7.5-22.5-16.5-4.5 9.3-10.7 23.5 4.0 29.6-0.4 Notes: 1. Totals for OECD and non-oecd supply include net refining gains; specific regions/groupings within each do not. 2. OPEC demand is an estimate based on historical annual data. 3. Balance for World equals global stockbuilds (+) and stockdraws (-) for crude oil and petroleum products and miscellaneous gains and losses. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports in the longer term. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from non-conventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
Page 15 B2: World Petroleum Production (million barrels per day) OECD Non-OECD OPEC World Americas Europe Asia Oc. Total Asia Non-Asia FSU Total P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total 1 2014 19.08 3.32 0.51 22.91 6.88 8.16 13.87 28.90 26.77 8.96 37.48 89.29 2015 19.98 3.48 0.46 23.92 7.92 8.07 14.03 30.02 28.16 8.68 38.14 92.08 2016 19.48 3.52 0.43 23.42 7.57 7.57 14.24 29.37 30.13 7.23 39.58 92.37 3Q 2016 19.32 3.34 0.45 23.11 7.50 7.91 13.99 29.39 30.64 7.72 39.54 92.04 4Q 2016 19.65 3.64 0.41 23.70 7.48 7.95 14.52 29.96 30.85 7.26 40.04 93.70 1Q 2017 19.96 3.66 0.39 24.00 7.50 7.57 14.43 29.51 29.61 7.16 38.93 92.44 2Q 2017 19.76 3.49 0.40 23.65 7.36 7.62 14.36 29.34 29.72 7.33 39.20 92.19 3Q 2017 20.16 3.36 0.42 23.94 7.27 7.68 14.27 29.22 29.77 7.70 39.64 92.80 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.3% 0.6% -6.7% 3.6% -3.1% -2.9% 2.0% -0.6% -2.8% -0.3% 0.3% 0.8% Nov-16 19.85 3.77 0.41 24.04 7.50 7.94 14.47 29.91 30.82 7.37 40.22 94.17 Dec-16 19.49 3.65 0.43 23.57 7.56 8.00 14.53 30.10 30.67 7.20 39.85 93.52 Jan-17 19.53 3.62 0.39 23.55 7.50 7.91 14.44 29.84 29.46 7.21 38.63 92.02 Feb-17 20.02 3.66 0.38 24.06 7.50 7.92 14.46 29.89 29.61 7.20 38.80 92.75 Mar-17 19.96 3.73 0.39 24.08 7.49 7.67 14.39 29.55 29.56 6.93 38.47 92.10 Apr-17 19.55 3.62 0.39 23.56 7.39 7.46 14.36 29.20 29.69 6.98 38.84 91.60 May-17 19.68 3.47 0.39 23.54 7.37 7.63 14.28 29.28 29.68 7.35 39.14 91.96 Jun-17 19.95 3.37 0.41 23.73 7.52 7.65 14.33 29.50 29.81 7.56 39.51 92.74 Jul-17 20.25 3.48 0.42 24.14 7.36 7.67 14.36 29.40 29.78 7.88 39.84 93.38 Aug-17 19.87 3.37 0.42 23.66 7.28 7.63 14.19 29.10 29.75 7.65 39.58 92.34 Sep-17 20.05 3.25 0.41 23.72 7.25 7.72 14.28 29.26 29.76 7.60 39.53 92.51 Oct-17 20.09 3.50 0.41 24.01 7.24 7.72 14.29 29.26 29.69 7.52 39.42 92.69 Nov-17 20.45 3.52 0.42 24.38 7.20 7.70 14.36 29.26 29.64 7.53 39.29 92.93 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 3.0% -6.6% 2.4% 1.4% -4.0% -3.0% -0.8% -2.2% -3.8% 2.1% -2.3% -1.3% R/P Ratio 2 30.5 10.2 26.7 27.5 15.6 21.9 28.2 23.4 74.2 146.2 84.0 50.3 Notes: 1. Production includes crude oil, condensates and NGLs. 2. Reserve-Production ratio is based on latest month production and British Petroleum reserve estimates. Sources: IEA Oil Market Report and BP Statistical Review of World Energy. B3: OECD Commercial Petroleum Stocks (million barrels) Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product Total Crude Product 1 Total 2 2014 553 727 1,443 311 505 880 157 169 389 1,020 1,401 2,712 2015 641 773 1,590 361 563 990 206 166 435 1,208 1,502 3,015 2016 646 776 1,600 339 562 971 192 162 415 1,177 1,500 2,985 3Q 2016 621 801 1,617 353 568 992 202 187 450 1,176 1,556 3,060 4Q 2016 646 776 1,600 339 562 971 192 162 415 1,177 1,500 2,985 1Q 2017 697 736 1,608 360 588 1,019 189 155 404 1,245 1,479 3,030 2Q 2017 656 753 1,595 365 560 997 190 170 424 1,211 1,483 3,016 3Q 2017 633 749 1,579 340 555 968 198 172 433 1,171 1,476 2,980 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.8% -6.4% -2.4% -3.5% -2.3% -2.4% -1.6% -7.9% -3.7% -0.4% -5.1% -2.6% Oct-16 647 782 1,624 347 559 977 202 181 447 1,196 1,522 3,048 Nov-16 646 789 1,623 341 562 975 195 172 430 1,182 1,522 3,028 Dec-16 646 776 1,600 339 562 971 192 162 415 1,177 1,500 2,985 Jan-17 665 781 1,623 355 597 1,022 193 166 421 1,212 1,544 3,067 Feb-17 683 764 1,619 360 592 1,025 185 165 412 1,228 1,521 3,056 Mar-17 697 736 1,608 360 588 1,019 189 155 404 1,245 1,479 3,030 Apr-17 676 752 1,608 353 599 1,026 193 165 420 1,223 1,516 3,054 May-17 671 762 1,619 359 572 1,006 198 170 432 1,228 1,504 3,057 Jun-17 656 753 1,595 365 560 997 190 170 424 1,211 1,483 3,016 Jul-17 646 755 1,591 364 565 1,004 197 176 437 1,206 1,495 3,031 Aug-17 625 756 1,581 346 573 990 195 182 443 1,166 1,511 3,014 Sep-17 633 749 1,579 340 555 968 198 172 433 1,171 1,476 2,980 Oct-17 627 728 1,551 339 545 957 186 182 432 1,152 1,454 2,940 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -3.2% -6.9% -4.5% -2.2% -2.6% -2.0% -8.1% 0.3% -3.3% -3.8% -4.5% -3.5% Notes: 1. Product includes only finished petroleum products. 2. Total stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: IEA Oil Market Report. Relevant Independent Objective
Page 16 B4: OPEC Crude Oil Production and Targets (million barrels per day) Persian Gulf Non-Persian Gulf OPEC-12 Arabia Iran UAE Kuwait Qatar Angola Nigeria Libya Algeria Venez. Ecuador Gabon Total 1 Iraq 2 2014 9.72 2.81 2.76 2.80 0.71 1.66 1.90 0.46 1.12 2.46 0.55 0.22 27.65 3.33 2015 10.16 2.85 2.93 2.79 0.65 1.76 1.77 0.40 1.11 2.46 0.54 0.23 27.65 4.00 2016 10.42 3.55 3.05 2.88 0.65 1.71 1.47 0.39 1.11 2.24 0.55 0.23 28.38 4.42 3Q 2016 10.61 3.67 3.12 2.92 0.64 1.72 1.25 0.31 1.13 2.19 0.55 0.23 28.34 4.43 4Q 2016 10.55 3.81 3.13 2.86 0.64 1.61 1.46 0.57 1.12 2.12 0.54 0.22 28.63 4.64 1Q 2017 9.88 3.78 2.96 2.71 0.60 1.64 1.39 0.66 1.05 2.08 0.52 0.20 27.61 4.46 2Q 2017 9.97 3.77 2.93 2.71 0.62 1.64 1.49 0.71 1.06 2.05 0.53 0.20 27.81 4.50 3Q 2017 9.99 3.83 2.94 2.70 0.60 1.67 1.62 0.94 1.06 1.99 0.54 0.20 28.20 4.48 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -5.8% 4.4% -5.8% -7.5% -6.3% -2.9% 29.6% 203.2% -6.2% -9.1% -1.8% -13.0% -0.5% 1.1% Nov-16 10.64 3.77 3.13 2.83 0.65 1.69 1.53 0.58 1.12 2.12 0.55 0.23 28.84 4.61 Dec-16 10.45 3.77 3.14 2.81 0.63 1.64 1.39 0.62 1.12 2.10 0.54 0.21 28.42 4.66 Jan-17 9.80 3.75 2.99 2.71 0.61 1.63 1.43 0.69 1.05 2.05 0.53 0.20 27.44 4.46 Feb-17 9.98 3.81 2.93 2.71 0.59 1.65 1.45 0.67 1.05 2.05 0.53 0.20 27.62 4.45 Mar-17 9.93 3.79 2.91 2.70 0.61 1.64 1.30 0.61 1.05 2.03 0.52 0.20 27.29 4.43 Apr-17 9.96 3.75 2.93 2.71 0.62 1.66 1.38 0.55 1.06 2.02 0.53 0.20 27.49 4.46 May-17 9.92 3.78 2.93 2.72 0.63 1.61 1.53 0.74 1.06 2.00 0.53 0.20 27.78 4.48 Jun-17 10.05 3.79 2.93 2.71 0.62 1.66 1.57 0.84 1.06 2.04 0.53 0.20 28.11 4.50 Jul-17 10.03 3.81 2.94 2.70 0.61 1.67 1.64 1.01 1.07 2.03 0.54 0.22 28.40 4.50 Aug-17 9.96 3.84 2.93 2.70 0.61 1.68 1.66 0.88 1.06 1.99 0.54 0.18 28.15 4.49 Sep-17 9.97 3.84 2.93 2.71 0.58 1.66 1.61 0.92 1.06 1.94 0.54 0.19 28.08 4.49 Oct-17 10.05 3.78 2.93 2.70 0.61 1.68 1.58 0.99 1.00 1.89 0.53 0.21 28.09 4.40 Nov-17 9.97 3.80 2.90 2.71 0.61 1.62 1.64 0.97 1.01 1.84 0.54 0.20 27.94 4.42 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -6.3% 0.8% -7.3% -4.2% -6.2% -4.1% 7.2% 67.2% -9.8% -13.2% -1.8% -13.0% -3.1% -4.1% Notes: 1. Does not include NGLs; OPEC production targets apply to crude oil only. 2. Iraq does not have an official OPEC target. Source: IEA Oil Market Report. B5: OECD Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent) - Refining Margins ($US/barrel) Americas Europe Asia Oceania OECD Input Util. Margin 1 Input Util. Margin 2 Input Util. Margin 3 Input Util. 2014 18.9 88.3 1.93 11.4 79.6 3.35 6.5 86.9-1.98 36.8 84.1 2015 19.1 87.6 5.65 12.1 84.6 7.28 6.7 90.7 0.62 37.9 86.0 2016 18.9 85.6 4.72 11.9 85.2 4.28 6.9 92.5 0.18 37.7 85.5 3Q 2016 19.2 86.8 5.33 12.3 87.6 3.55 6.7 90.5 0.0 38.2 86.6 4Q 2016 18.6 84.0 5.13 12.3 88.0 5.14 6.9 92.8 1.1 37.8 85.7 1Q 2017 18.8 85.0 5.38 12.0 85.6 4.87 7.2 97.4 1.0 38.0 86.2 2Q 2017 20.0 90.3 6.09 12.0 85.6 6.17 6.6 89.2 1.2 38.6 87.5 3Q 2017 19.2 86.9 9.15 12.7 90.4 7.59 7.0 94.5 2.95 38.9 88.2 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.1% 71.8% 3.2% 113.9% 4.4% ###### 1.9% Oct-16 17.8 80.6 4.98 12.1 86.3 5.76 6.4 86.0 0.1 36.3 82.3 Nov-16 18.8 84.9 4.51 12.4 88.4 5.65 6.9 93.4 2.4 38.1 86.3 Dec-16 19.1 86.5 5.91 12.5 89.3 4.02 7.4 99.0 0.8 39.0 88.4 Jan-17 19.0 85.8 6.28 12.3 87.7 4.85 7.4 100.0 1.4 38.7 87.7 Feb-17 18.4 83.3 4.96 11.8 84.0 5.44 7.4 99.6 1.1 37.6 85.2 Mar-17 19.0 85.8 4.90 11.9 85.1 4.32 6.9 92.7 0.7 37.8 85.6 Apr-17 19.8 89.5 6.10 12.1 86.6 6.29 6.8 92.2 1.0 38.8 87.9 May-17 20.1 90.9 6.00 11.8 84.4 5.64 6.7 89.9 0.5 38.6 87.5 Jun-17 20.0 90.5 6.17 12.0 85.8 6.57 6.4 85.6 2.1 38.4 87.1 Jul-17 20.0 90.5 7.98 12.6 89.5 6.80 7.1 95.1 2.6 39.6 89.8 Aug-17 19.7 89.0 9.56 12.8 91.2 7.79 7.2 96.7 2.9 39.6 89.9 Sep-17 18.0 81.4 9.92 12.7 90.5 8.17 6.8 91.6 3.4 37.5 85.0 Oct-17 18.6 83.9 5.89 12.4 88.5 5.92 6.8 91.5 2.1 37.8 85.6 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 4.2% 18.3% 2.6% 3% 6.4% 2512.5% 4.0% Notes: 1. Based on dated Brent being processed in average US Gulf cracking refinery. 2. Based on dated Brent in average Rotterdam cracking refinery. 3. Based on spot Dubai in average Singapore hydroskimming refinery. Source: IEA Oil Market Report.
Page 17 C1: US Petroleum Supply and Demand Balance (million barrels per day) United States 1 East Mid-West Supply Demand Net-Imp. Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance 2014 13.67 19.03 5.04 0.26 0.31 5.45-5.14 3.35 4.91-1.56 2015 14.78 19.39 4.65 0.43 0.41 5.58-5.17 3.63 5.01-1.38 2016 14.61 19.63 4.87 0.13 0.47 5.42-4.94 3.63 5.13-1.50 3Q 2016 14.45 19.90 5.15 0.00 0.50 5.35-4.86 3.58 5.23-1.65 4Q 2016 14.62 19.75 4.69-0.18 0.50 5.41-4.91 3.59 5.17-1.59 1Q 2017 14.78 19.49 4.26 0.02 0.51 5.55-5.03 3.62 5.03-1.41 2Q 2017 15.12 20.01 4.25-0.21 0.54 5.57-5.03 3.70 5.06-1.36 3Q 2017 15.29 19.92 3.82-0.33 0.56 5.65-5.09 3.83 5.02-1.20 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.8% 0.1% -25.7% 13.3% 5.6% 6.8% -4.1% Oct-16 14.57 19.62 4.78 0.09 0.49 5.33-4.84 3.59 5.26-1.67 Nov-16 14.80 19.66 4.92 0.11 0.50 5.39-4.89 3.66 5.02-1.36 Dec-16 14.48 19.98 4.35-0.74 0.51 5.52-5.01 3.52 5.24-1.72 Jan-17 14.49 19.23 5.01 0.71 0.51 5.33-4.82 3.52 4.97-1.45 Feb-17 14.83 19.19 3.61-0.12 0.51 5.43-4.92 3.66 5.00-1.34 Mar-17 15.02 20.03 4.17-0.54 0.52 5.88-5.36 3.68 5.12-1.44 Apr-17 14.98 19.53 4.18 0.03 0.53 5.43-4.91 3.66 4.87-1.21 May-17 15.19 20.02 4.49 0.17 0.55 5.49-4.94 3.71 5.11-1.40 Jun-17 15.19 20.49 4.09-0.82 0.56 5.79-5.23 3.74 5.20-1.46 Jul-17 15.27 20.02 3.62-0.36 0.56 5.63-5.07 3.74 4.85-1.11 Aug-17 15.23 20.16 4.41-0.38 0.56 5.87-5.31 3.91 5.23-1.32 Sep-17 15.37 19.58 3.44-0.26 0.56 5.45-4.89 3.83 4.98-1.15 Oct-17 15.89 19.81 2.50-1.13 0.59 5.70-5.11 4.00 5.20-1.20 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 9.1% 0.9% -47.8% 20.0% 6.9% 11.5% -1.0% % of Total 2 100.0% 100.0% 3.7% 28.8% 25.2% 26.3% South-Central North-West West Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance 2014 7.65 5.16 2.50 0.98 0.71 0.27 1.38 2.81-1.43 2015 8.31 5.20 3.11 1.10 0.69 0.41 1.33 2.91-1.59 2016 8.14 5.39 2.75 1.07 0.71 0.35 1.30 2.99-1.68 3Q 2016 8.06 5.41 2.65 1.04 0.75 0.29 1.27 3.15-1.88 4Q 2016 8.16 5.53 2.63 1.06 0.71 0.35 1.31 2.93-1.62 1Q 2017 8.30 5.30 3.01 1.04 0.69 0.35 1.30 2.92-1.62 2Q 2017 8.49 5.53 2.96 1.10 0.72 0.38 1.28 3.14-1.86 3Q 2017 8.52 5.29 3.23 1.17 0.74 0.43 1.22 3.22-2.00 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 5.6% -2.3% 12.3% -1.9% -4.1% 2.3% Oct-16 8.11 5.33 2.78 1.08 0.74 0.34 1.30 2.96-1.66 Nov-16 8.25 5.67 2.59 1.08 0.71 0.37 1.31 2.86-1.55 Dec-16 8.12 5.59 2.53 1.02 0.68 0.34 1.31 2.96-1.64 Jan-17 8.14 5.41 2.73 1.01 0.67 0.34 1.31 2.86-1.55 Feb-17 8.33 5.21 3.12 1.05 0.69 0.35 1.29 2.86-1.57 Mar-17 8.45 5.28 3.17 1.07 0.72 0.35 1.31 3.04-1.74 Apr-17 8.40 5.42 2.98 1.08 0.69 0.40 1.32 3.12-1.80 May-17 8.55 5.62 2.93 1.11 0.73 0.38 1.28 3.08-1.80 Jun-17 8.53 5.56 2.97 1.11 0.74 0.37 1.24 3.21-1.96 Jul-17 8.69 5.56 3.12 1.12 0.78 0.35 1.17 3.20-2.03 Aug-17 8.38 4.97 3.41 1.17 0.77 0.40 1.22 3.32-2.10 Sep-17 8.49 5.33 3.16 1.21 0.67 0.54 1.27 3.15-1.88 Oct-17 8.78 5.02 3.77 1.23 0.72 0.51 1.28 3.16-1.88 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 8.3% -5.9% 14.4% -2.7% -1.7% 6.9% % of Total 2 55.3% 25.3% 7.8% 3.7% 8.1% 16.0% Notes: 1. Does not balance because of unaccounted for crude oil. Regional surpluses (+) and deficits (-) are balanced through net-imports/transfers and stock changes in the short-term, and net-imports/transfers in the longer term. 2. As of most recent month. Supply includes crude oil, condensates, NGLs, oil from nonconventional sources and processing gains. Demand is for petroleum products. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly. Relevant Independent Objective
Page 18 C2: US Petroleum Demand by Product (million barrels per day) Finished Petroleum Products NGLs Petroleum Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total 1 Total Total 2 2014 8.92 1.47 4.01 0.26 16.64 2.40 19.03 2015 9.16 1.54 3.98 0.26 16.94 2.47 19.39 2016 9.33 1.61 3.88 0.36 17.17 2.49 19.63 3Q 2016 9.56 1.68 3.79 0.36 17.55 2.40 19.90 4Q 2016 9.22 1.63 4.01 0.35 17.19 2.59 19.75 1Q 2017 8.95 1.60 3.95 0.36 16.68 2.79 19.49 2Q 2017 9.53 1.68 3.91 0.37 17.56 2.34 20.01 3Q 2017 9.56 1.71 3.87 0.30 17.59 2.23 19.92 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.0% 1.7% 2.2% -15.8% 0.2% -7.1% 0.1% Oct-16 9.10 1.61 4.02 0.35 17.04 2.54 19.62 Nov-16 9.24 1.63 3.96 0.38 17.27 2.49 19.66 Dec-16 9.31 1.65 4.06 0.32 17.26 2.74 19.98 Jan-17 8.50 1.59 3.78 0.46 16.20 3.04 19.23 Feb-17 8.99 1.53 3.91 0.27 16.51 2.71 19.19 Mar-17 9.35 1.67 4.15 0.36 17.33 2.62 20.03 Apr-17 9.25 1.62 3.79 0.32 16.96 2.48 19.53 May-17 9.59 1.67 3.97 0.37 17.67 2.40 20.02 Jun-17 9.77 1.76 3.97 0.42 18.05 2.13 20.49 Jul-17 9.57 1.73 3.71 0.27 17.53 2.20 20.02 Aug-17 9.77 1.77 3.99 0.34 18.03 2.15 20.16 Sep-17 9.33 1.64 3.92 0.31 17.22 2.35 19.58 Oct-17 9.35 1.71 3.97 0.36 17.25 2.23 19.81 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.8% 6.7% -1.4% 5.2% 1.3% -12.3% 0.9% Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly. C3: US Petroleum Stocks (million barrels) Petroleum Stocks 1 Crude Oil Finished Products East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West U.S. Total 2 Gasoline Jet Fuel Distil. Resid. Total 3 2014 158 289 1,227 42 140 1,856 1,085 31 38 136 34 287 2015 193 335 1,298 46 144 2,015 1,176 28 40 161 42 325 2016 196 327 1,325 45 139 2,031 1,179 29 43 165 42 330 3Q 2016 195 335 1,333 42 142 2,048 1,164 25 45 160 39 319 4Q 2016 196 327 1,325 45 139 2,031 1,179 29 43 165 42 330 1Q 2017 189 329 1,327 47 141 2,033 1,229 22 42 151 41 313 2Q 2017 190 330 1,304 43 143 2,009 1,180 22 41 152 35 306 3Q 2017 168 339 1,289 41 141 1,978 1,143 22 43 137 36 286 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -13.7% 0.9% -3.3% -2.4% -0.7% -3.4% -1.8% -13.2% -3.2% -14.3% -7.5% -10.4% Oct-16 199 326 1,340 45 140 2,050 1,184 26 45 154 39 311 Nov-16 198 329 1,339 46 142 2,054 1,184 27 45 160 41 319 Dec-16 196 327 1,325 45 139 2,031 1,179 29 43 165 42 330 Jan-17 211 330 1,326 44 140 2,053 1,200 28 42 169 40 333 Feb-17 205 333 1,325 45 142 2,049 1,218 26 44 162 40 327 Mar-17 189 329 1,327 47 141 2,033 1,229 22 42 151 41 313 Apr-17 195 338 1,311 47 143 2,033 1,213 22 45 155 40 318 May-17 196 338 1,311 46 148 2,039 1,201 22 44 154 40 318 Jun-17 190 330 1,304 43 143 2,009 1,180 22 41 152 35 306 Jul-17 186 333 1,299 42 138 1,998 1,161 23 41 151 34 303 Aug-17 180 331 1,297 42 136 1,986 1,138 25 40 148 35 297 Sep-17 168 339 1,289 41 141 1,978 1,143 22 43 137 36 286 Oct-17 164 333 1,265 41 140 1,943 1,128 23 42 130 32 273 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -17.9% 2.0% -5.6% -8.6% 0.4% -5.2% -4.7% -10.6% -4.7% -15.6% -17.3% -12.2% Notes: 1. Petroleum stocks include crude oil, finished products, NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. 2. Includes Strategic Petroleum Reserves. 3. Total includes other finished petroleum products. All stocks are closing levels for respective reporting period. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly.
Page 19 C4: US Petroleum Net Imports by Source (million barrels per day) Region of Origin OPEC Canada Mexico Lat. Am. Europe Africa M.E. Total 1 Venez. S. Arabia Nigeria Total 2 P. Gulf 2014 2.58 0.29 0.56-0.12 0.17 1.85 5.04 0.71 1.16 0.04 2.98 1.86 2015 2.81 0.07 0.73-0.18 0.17 1.49 4.65 0.75 1.05 0.06 2.65 1.50 2016 2.93-0.21 0.73-0.23 0.41 1.77 4.87 0.72 1.10 0.23 3.23 1.74 3Q 2016 2.80-0.25 0.85-0.27 0.39 1.88 5.15 0.77 1.13 0.21 3.39 1.83 4Q 2016 3.09-0.41 0.61-0.14 0.50 1.75 4.69 0.68 1.00 0.23 3.21 1.74 1Q 2017 3.41-0.31 0.49-0.27 0.51 2.00 4.26 0.67 1.28 0.29 3.41 2.00 2Q 2017 3.06-0.18 0.38-0.27 0.51 1.93 4.25 0.67 1.09 0.31 3.44 1.94 3Q 2017 3.03-0.49 0.35-0.22 0.50 1.51 3.82 0.58 0.73 0.31 2.99 1.50 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 8.3% 98% -59.3% -18.5% 28.2% -19.7% -25.7% -24.2% -35.3% 44.0% -11.6% -18.3% Oct-16 2.76-0.34 0.66-0.05 0.51 1.66 4.78 0.68 1.01 0.23 3.11 1.66 Nov-16 3.17-0.30 0.52-0.04 0.53 1.69 4.92 0.68 1.00 0.23 3.21 1.67 Dec-16 3.33-0.59 0.66-0.34 0.45 1.89 4.36 0.70 1.01 0.24 3.30 1.88 Jan-17 3.52-0.35 0.39-0.06 0.55 2.07 5.01 0.66 1.34 0.32 3.58 2.07 Feb-17 3.41-0.34 0.59-0.34 0.44 1.99 3.61 0.66 1.34 0.21 3.20 1.99 Mar-17 3.31-0.23 0.51-0.40 0.54 1.95 4.17 0.70 1.17 0.34 3.44 1.95 Apr-17 3.07-0.20 0.61-0.19 0.48 2.08 4.18 0.76 1.15 0.32 3.50 2.09 May-17 3.21-0.07 0.34-0.36 0.48 1.93 4.49 0.69 1.11 0.29 3.45 1.94 Jun-17 2.91-0.27 0.20-0.28 0.58 1.80 4.09 0.56 1.02 0.31 3.37 1.80 Jul-17 2.85-0.42 0.36-0.41 0.44 1.75 3.62 0.62 0.79 0.24 3.23 1.77 Aug-17 3.16-0.42 0.49-0.08 0.62 1.37 4.41 0.55 0.74 0.39 3.00 1.36 Sep-17 3.07-0.63 0.18-0.18 0.44 1.40 3.44 0.58 0.67 0.29 2.75 1.36 Oct-17 3.27-0.47 0.09-0.71 0.59 1.53 2.50 0.53 0.57 0.43 2.96 1.47 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 18.7% 39% -85.8% 1414.9% 15.3% -8.1% -47.8% -22.2% -43.3% 85% -5.0% -11.8% % of Total 3 130.9% -18.8% 3.7% -28.5% 23.6% 61.1% 100.0% 21.0% 22.8% 17.0% 118.4% 58.7% Notes: 1. Total includes net-imports from Russia and Asia-Pacific region. 2. Total OPEC includes the other eight cartel members. 3. As of latest month. Source EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly. C5: US Regional Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day) PAD District U.S. Major Producers East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Alaska Calif. 1 Louis. Texas G. of Mex. 2 2014 0.04 1.62 5.00 0.58 1.11 8.35 0.50 0.60 0.19 3.04 1.35 2015 0.05 1.81 5.69 0.73 1.08 9.35 0.49 0.59 0.17 3.50 1.50 2016 0.05 1.71 5.49 0.67 1.03 8.95 0.49 0.54 0.16 3.25 1.59 2Q 2016 0.05 1.72 5.48 0.67 1.04 8.96 0.50 0.54 0.16 3.24 1.58 3Q 2016 0.05 1.67 5.40 0.65 1.00 8.76 0.47 0.53 0.16 3.18 1.57 4Q 2016 0.04 1.62 5.40 0.65 0.99 8.71 0.47 0.53 0.15 3.17 1.58 1Q 2017 0.04 1.63 5.69 0.65 1.05 9.06 0.53 0.52 0.15 3.26 1.76 2Q 2017 0.04 1.62 5.58 0.63 1.00 8.87 0.51 0.48 0.14 3.25 1.68 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -6.7% -5.9% 1.8% -5.7% -4.5% -1.0% 2.7% -10.9% -13.3% 0.2% 6.0% Oct-16 0.04 1.61 5.45 0.65 0.99 8.74 0.46 0.53 0.15 3.16 1.65 Nov-16 0.04 1.58 5.32 0.65 0.98 8.58 0.45 0.53 0.16 3.16 1.51 Dec-16 0.04 1.67 5.43 0.65 1.01 8.81 0.49 0.52 0.15 3.18 1.59 Jan-17 0.04 1.60 5.35 0.62 1.00 8.62 0.50 0.50 0.14 3.09 1.63 Feb-17 0.05 1.72 6.13 0.69 1.13 9.72 0.57 0.56 0.16 3.49 1.91 Mar-17 0.04 1.57 5.59 0.62 1.02 8.84 0.52 0.50 0.14 3.19 1.75 Apr-17 0.04 1.53 5.33 0.58 0.94 8.43 0.48 0.46 0.13 3.09 1.62 May-17 0.04 1.65 5.73 0.65 1.02 9.10 0.53 0.50 0.14 3.30 1.76 Jun-17 0.05 1.67 5.68 0.67 1.02 9.08 0.53 0.50 0.14 3.35 1.66 Jul-17 0.05 1.67 5.78 0.68 1.00 9.17 0.51 0.49 0.14 3.43 1.66 Aug-17 0.05 1.62 5.56 0.65 0.92 8.80 0.45 0.48 0.13 3.34 1.58 Sep-17 0.05 1.74 6.10 0.71 0.94 9.55 0.44 0.51 0.14 3.59 1.82 Oct-17 0.05 1.75 5.74 0.73 0.94 9.20 0.45 0.48 0.13 3.37 1.69 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 14.8% 8.6% 5.4% 11.6% -5.4% 5.2% -1.8% -8.6% -11.4% 6.6% 2.7% R/P Ratio 3 9.7 11.8 9.4 11.4 13.7 10.5 12.8 14.6 10.9 10.6 6.9 Notes: 1. California includes Federal Offshore crude oil production. 2. Gulf of Mexico includes Federal Offshore production adjacent to Texas and Louisiana. 3. Crude oil Reserve-Production ratio as of latest production month. Crude oil production does not include NGLs. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly. Relevant Independent Objective
Page 20 C6: US Refinery Activity Crude Input (MMbpd) - Utilization (percent) East Mid-West South-Central North-West West U.S. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. Input Util. 2014 1.09 84.2 3.52 92.5 8.38 91.5 0.58 90.5 2.57 87.0 16.14 90.4 2015 1.15 90.7 3.59 93.1 8.70 93.4 0.60 93.2 2.58 88.2 16.61 92.3 2016 1.11 86.6 3.62 91.9 8.68 90.7 0.60 86.5 2.51 85.9 16.51 89.8 3Q 2016 1.09 85.4 3.70 93.9 8.79 91.5 0.63 90.2 2.67 91.4 16.88 91.5 4Q 2016 1.09 85.1 3.65 92.1 8.72 90.6 0.60 86.6 2.35 80.4 16.41 88.8 1Q 2017 0.95 75.5 3.68 92.0 8.51 87.4 0.60 87.0 2.47 84.4 16.22 87.1 2Q 2017 1.10 91.3 3.84 96.0 9.28 95.2 0.62 89.7 2.58 87.8 17.42 93.8 3Q 2017 1.11 93.8 3.84 95.7 8.59 88.0 0.66 94.8 2.69 92.6 16.89 91.1 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.6% 3.8% -2.3% 4.5% 0.7% 0.0% Oct-16 1.08 84.5 3.58 90.4 8.28 86.1 0.58 83.6 2.26 77.4 15.78 85.4 Nov-16 1.12 87.6 3.67 92.7 8.78 91.3 0.62 89.7 2.35 80.4 16.55 89.6 Dec-16 1.07 83.3 3.71 93.2 9.08 94.3 0.60 86.5 2.44 83.5 16.90 91.3 Jan-17 1.05 83.7 3.72 93.0 8.54 87.7 0.61 88.1 2.53 86.4 16.46 88.4 Feb-17 0.90 71.9 3.62 90.6 8.34 85.6 0.59 85.4 2.37 80.7 15.82 85.0 Mar-17 0.89 70.9 3.70 92.4 8.67 89.0 0.61 87.4 2.52 86.0 16.38 88.0 Apr-17 1.06 84.6 3.80 95.1 9.08 93.2 0.64 92.9 2.68 91.3 17.27 92.7 May-17 1.11 94.1 3.81 95.3 9.44 96.8 0.61 88.4 2.52 85.8 17.49 94.3 Jun-17 1.13 95.5 3.91 97.6 9.33 95.7 0.61 87.7 2.53 86.4 17.51 94.3 Jul-17 1.08 91.3 3.86 96.2 9.42 96.6 0.65 93.4 2.64 89.9 17.64 95.0 Aug-17 1.14 96.5 3.97 99.1 8.73 89.5 0.65 94.4 2.73 93.2 17.23 92.8 Sep-17 1.11 93.6 3.69 91.9 7.62 78.0 0.67 96.5 2.70 94.8 15.79 85.3 Oct-17 1.09 92.2 3.40 84.7 8.79 90.0 0.62 89.8 2.44 85.7 16.34 88.3 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.9% -5.0% 6.2% 6.9% 8.0% 3.5% % of Total 1 6.7% 20.8% 53.8% 3.8% 14.9% 100.0% Notes: 1) As of most recent month. Source: EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly. C7: US Refinery Margins ($US per barrel) NY Harbor Chicago US Gulf Los Angeles (East Coast Comp.) (WTI) (WTS) (ANS) 2014 8.62 16.57 11.76 8.68 2015 12.86 18.05 12.96 19.50 2016 9.28 11.63 10.24 11.51 3Q 2016 8.90 13.86 10.81 10.94 4Q 2016 9.71 9.25 10.20 10.59 1Q 2017 7.31 9.38 11.22 12.30 2Q 2017 9.89 13.08 11.68 14.50 3Q 2017 13.69 18.01 15.08 16.06 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 53.9% 29.9% 39.5% 46.8% Nov-16 10.53 7.73 9.01 10.33 Dec-16 7.83 9.88 10.46 8.23 Jan-17 8.03 9.62 11.18 9.84 Feb-17 6.87 7.38 10.72 13.69 Mar-17 7.02 11.15 11.76 13.36 Apr-17 9.84 14.06 12.78 14.20 May-17 9.70 12.82 11.64 15.10 Jun-17 10.13 12.35 10.62 14.21 Jul-17 12.53 15.23 12.81 15.32 Aug-17 13.24 18.72 15.35 16.44 Sep-17 15.31 20.09 17.07 16.41 Oct-17 10.28 22.19 12.28 13.62 Nov-17 10.58 20.38 11.77 12.18 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.5% 163.6% 30.6% 17.9% Note: Based on specific crude being processed in average cracking refinery in a given area. As of February 2010, NY Harbor Arab Med. is now East Coast Composite. Source: Oil and Gas Journal.
Page 21 D1: Canada Petroleum Supply and Demand Balances (million barrels per day) Canada East West Supply Demand Net-Exp Stk. Chg. Supply Demand Balance Supply Demand Balance 2014 4.09 1.56 2.54 0.02 0.27 0.87-0.60 3.82 0.70 3.12 2015 4.51 1.58 2.96 0.03 0.22 0.96-0.74 4.29 0.62 3.67 2016 4.44 1.55 2.88 0.00 0.25 0.87-0.62 4.18 0.68 3.51 3Q 2016 4.58 1.67 2.93 0.01 0.29 0.92-0.63 4.29 0.74 3.55 4Q 2016 4.83 1.53 3.41 0.11 0.32 0.84-0.52 4.51 0.70 3.82 1Q 2017 4.93 1.74 3.21 0.02 0.32 0.93-0.61 4.61 0.81 3.80 2Q 2017 4.47 1.73 2.72-0.03 0.31 0.97-0.66 4.16 0.76 3.40 3Q 2017 4.87 1.79 3.10 0.03 0.26 0.98-0.73 4.61 0.81 3.80 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.3% 7.8% 6.1% -10.9% 6.9% 7.4% 8.8% Oct-16 4.69 1.36 3.52 0.19 0.32 0.76-0.44 4.38 0.60 3.78 Nov-16 5.00 1.61 3.58 0.19 0.33 0.86-0.53 4.67 0.75 3.92 Dec-16 4.80 1.63 3.11-0.06 0.31 0.89-0.58 4.49 0.73 3.76 Jan-17 5.01 1.76 3.27 0.02 0.34 0.93-0.59 4.67 0.84 3.84 Feb-17 5.00 1.69 3.42 0.11 0.31 0.91-0.59 4.69 0.79 3.90 Mar-17 4.79 1.76 2.95-0.08 0.32 0.96-0.64 4.47 0.80 3.67 Apr-17 4.35 1.67 2.60-0.08 0.29 0.94-0.65 4.06 0.73 3.33 May-17 4.51 1.71 2.80 0.00 0.32 0.96-0.64 4.19 0.75 3.44 Jun-17 4.55 1.80 2.74 0.00 0.32 1.01-0.69 4.23 0.79 3.44 Jul-17 4.82 1.81 3.11 0.10 0.30 0.98-0.68 4.52 0.83 3.69 Aug-17 4.99 1.81 3.18-0.01 0.24 1.00-0.76 4.75 0.80 3.95 Sep-17 4.78 1.76 3.02-0.01 0.23 0.96-0.74 4.56 0.80 3.76 Oct-17 4.79 1.67 3.09-0.02 0.30 0.91-0.61 4.49 0.77 3.72 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.0% 23.0% -12.2% -6.0% 19.0% 2.6% 28.1% % of Total 1 100.0% 100.0% 6.2% 54.2% 93.8% 45.8% Notes: 1. As of most recent month. See notes for Table C1 for additional comments. Source: Statistics Canada s Energy Statistics Handbook. D2: Canada Demand by Product (million barrels per day) Finished Products Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total 1 2014 0.78 0.56 0.07 1.86 2015 0.77 0.55 0.05 1.80 2016 0.81 0.54 0.04 1.81 3Q 2016 0.85 0.56 0.04 1.91 4Q 2016 0.80 0.54 0.04 1.80 1Q 2017 0.76 0.55 0.05 1.75 2Q 2017 0.82 0.54 0.06 1.83 3Q 2017 0.85 0.60 0.05 1.99 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.6% 6.8% 13.3% 4.1% Oct-16 0.79 0.53 0.04 1.78 Nov-16 0.80 0.55 0.04 1.80 Dec-16 0.81 0.55 0.04 1.80 Jan-17 0.73 0.52 0.05 1.72 Feb-17 0.76 0.55 0.06 1.72 Mar-17 0.79 0.57 0.05 1.82 Apr-17 0.76 0.47 0.04 1.69 May-17 0.83 0.56 0.08 1.86 Jun-17 0.86 0.60 0.06 1.94 Jul-17 0.86 0.57 0.05 1.96 Aug-17 0.88 0.63 0.04 2.07 Sep-17 0.81 0.60 0.06 1.95 Oct-17 0.81 0.64 0.04 1.94 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 2.7% 19.3% -96.2% 9.1% Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum demand includes refinery feedstocks, additives/oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. Source: Statistics Canada s Energy Statistics Handbook. D3: Canada Petroleum Stocks (million barrels) Finished Products Crude Oil Petrol. Gasoline Distil. Resid. Total 1 Total Total 2 2014 18.9 18.1 3.0 59.4 105.9 165.3 2015 16.7 15.3 3.2 52.1 110.4 162.4 2016 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6 3Q 2016 15.7 12.9 2.5 48.1 73.8 121.9 4Q 2016 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6 1Q 2017 15.1 14.0 2.7 48.6 78.0 126.6 2Q 2017 14.9 13.4 2.3 47.0 71.4 118.3 3Q 2017 15.2 14.1 2.6 49.2 73.0 122.2 Yr-on-Yr Chg. -3.2% 10.0% 2.4% 2.3% -1.1% 0.2% Oct-16 16.0 13.1 2.3 47.2 76.5 123.7 Nov-16 16.7 13.3 2.1 47.2 77.3 124.5 Dec-16 15.9 13.3 2.2 45.5 77.1 122.6 Jan-17 16.7 14.7 2.0 49.1 77.5 126.6 Feb-17 15.8 14.7 2.0 49.4 80.5 129.9 Mar-17 15.1 14.0 2.7 48.6 78.0 126.6 Apr-17 14.8 15.5 2.4 49.7 72.5 122.2 May-17 15.5 13.2 1.9 46.8 71.3 118.1 Jun-17 14.9 13.4 2.3 47.0 71.4 118.3 Jul-17 15.0 14.0 2.1 48.4 71.6 120.0 Aug-17 15.2 13.3 2.1 47.3 74.4 121.7 Sep-17 15.2 14.1 2.6 49.2 73.0 122.2 Oct-17 17.0 13.3 2.3 49.5 72.7 122.2 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 6.2% 1.2% -0.4% 4.7% -4.9% -1.2% Notes: 1. Total includes other finished petroleum products. 2. Total petroleum stocks include NGLs, refinery feedstocks, additives/ oxygenates and other hydrocarbons. All stocks are closing levels. Source: Statistics Canada s Energy Statistics Handbook. Relevant Independent Objective
Page 22 D4: Canada Crude Oil Production (million barrels per day) Major Producers Canada Petroleum Type Alta. Sask. B.C. N.W.T. Atlantic Total 1 Light SCO Heavy Bitumen NGLs 2014 2.91 0.51 0.05 0.01 0.22 3.76 0.94 0.95 0.46 1.21 0.22 2015 3.09 0.53 0.05 0.01 0.17 3.91 0.85 0.98 0.45 1.39 0.22 2016 3.08 0.46 0.06 0.01 0.21 3.87 0.78 0.93 0.40 1.49 0.26 3Q 2016 3.20 0.45 0.06 0.01 0.21 3.97 0.76 1.01 0.40 1.53 0.27 4Q 2016 3.36 0.47 0.06 0.01 0.24 4.18 0.79 1.15 0.41 1.57 0.26 1Q 2017 3.42 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.24 4.25 0.81 1.09 0.41 1.65 0.29 2Q 2017 3.08 0.48 0.05 0.00 0.23 3.89 0.81 0.87 0.40 1.52 0.29 3Q 2017 3.47 0.48 0.06 0.00 0.18 4.25 0.77 1.08 0.40 1.68 0.31 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 8.6% 7.1% 5.0% -100.0% -12.5% 6.9% 1.9% 7.0% -0.8% 9.8% 15.8% Oct-16 3.26 0.46 0.05 0.01 0.24 4.06 0.78 1.11 0.40 1.53 0.24 Nov-16 3.49 0.48 0.06 0.01 0.25 4.33 0.80 1.22 0.41 1.61 0.27 Dec-16 3.34 0.48 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.16 0.79 1.12 0.41 1.56 0.28 Jan-17 3.46 0.48 0.06 0.00 0.25 4.30 0.81 1.15 0.41 1.64 0.28 Feb-17 3.50 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.23 4.33 0.80 1.15 0.41 1.68 0.28 Mar-17 3.29 0.50 0.06 0.00 0.24 4.13 0.82 0.96 0.41 1.63 0.29 Apr-17 2.97 0.49 0.05 0.00 0.22 3.77 0.80 0.74 0.41 1.54 0.28 May-17 3.09 0.48 0.05 0.00 0.24 3.90 0.81 0.90 0.39 1.50 0.29 Jun-17 3.19 0.48 0.05 0.00 0.24 4.00 0.82 0.97 0.40 1.53 0.29 Jul-17 3.41 0.47 0.06 0.00 0.22 4.20 0.80 1.05 0.39 1.64 0.32 Aug-17 3.60 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.17 4.37 0.75 1.18 0.41 1.72 0.30 Sep-17 3.42 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.16 4.17 0.75 1.01 0.40 1.68 0.32 Oct-17 3.32 0.49 0.06 0.00 0.22 4.12 0.82 0.90 0.39 1.67 0.33 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 1.7% 6.7% 2.8% -100.0% -8.2% 1.5% 4.9% -18.7% -1.8% 9.3% 40.3% Note: Total includes small amounts of production from Manitoba and Ontario. Source: Statistics Canada s Energy Statistics Handbook. D5: Canada Petroleum Imports by Source (thousand barrels per day) Non-OPEC OPEC Imports Mexico U.S. U.K. Norway Total 1 Algeria Nigeria S. Arabia Venez. Total 2 P. Gulf Total 2014 17 164 3 12 453 38 27 0 1 90 23 543 2015 0 256 4 8 496 45 26 0 0 71 0 567 2016 0 211 10 10 510 70 0 0 0 70 0 580 3Q 2016 0 183 0 0 516 98 0 0 0 98 0 614 4Q 2016 0 253 15 13 473 30 0 0 0 30 0 503 1Q 2017 0 181 20 6 615 38 0 0 0 38 0 654 2Q 2017 0 89 0 0 615 55 0 0 0 55 0 670 3Q 2017 0 217 0 0 540 33 0 0 0 33 0 573 Yr-on-Yr Chg 0.0% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% 4.6% -66.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -66.4% 0.0% -6.7% Sep-16 0 0 0 0 473 0 0 0 0 0 0 473 Oct-16 0 237 0 39 433 0 0 0 0 0 0 433 Nov-16 0 302 0 0 490 90 0 0 0 90 0 580 Dec-16 0 218 44 0 494 0 0 0 0 0 0 494 Jan-17 0 269 59 19 647 0 0 0 0 0 0 647 Feb-17 0 274 0 0 612 81 0 0 0 81 0 692 Mar-17 0 0 0 0 588 34 0 0 0 34 0 622 Apr-17 0 0 0 0 579 36 0 0 0 36 0 615 May-17 0 266 0 0 562 129 0 0 0 129 0 691 Jun-17 0 0 0 0 704 0 0 0 0 0 0 704 Jul-17 0 260 0 0 652 1 0 0 0 1 0 653 Aug-17 0 145 0 0 436 0 0 0 0 0 0 436 Sep-17 0 245 0 0 532 98 0 0 0 98 0 630 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 0.0% >100% 0.0% 0.0% 12.5% >100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% >100% 0.0% 33.1% % of Total 3 0.0% 38.9% 0.0% 0.0% 84.5% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 0.0% 100.0% Notes: 1. Includes all non-opec production. 2. Includes production by the other seven OPEC members. 3. As of most recent month. Sources: Statistics Canada s Energy Statistics Handbook.
Page 23 E1: World Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs) OECD Non-OECD OPEC World N. A. Europe Asia-Pac Total Asia Non-Asia Total 1 P. Gulf Non-Gulf Total Total 1 2015 1,222 96 17 1,336 202 296 498 348 156 503 2,337 2016 663 82 7 751 180 233 413 299 129 428 1,592 2017 1,096 75 15 1,186 186 228 413 307 121 428 2,027 4Q 2016 784 78 6 869 181 224 405 299 117 416 1,690 1Q 2017 1,043 81 14 1,138 184 218 401 304 122 426 1,966 2Q 2017 1,030 75 17 1,122 182 222 404 310 129 439 1,965 3Q 2017 1,173 71 15 1,259 178 236 414 310 119 429 2,102 4Q 2017 1,138 72 16 1,225 199 234 433 302 115 417 2,075 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 45.0% -8.1% 147.4% 41.0% 9.8% 4.5% 6.8% 1.1% -2.3% 0.2% 22.8% Dec-16 862 82 10 954 182 222 404 294 120 414 1,772 Jan-17 1,001 81 14 1,096 184 216 400 302 120 422 1,918 Feb-17 1,069 88 14 1,171 182 217 399 302 122 424 1,994 Mar-17 1,060 75 13 1,148 185 220 405 307 125 432 1,985 Apr-17 984 72 19 1,075 186 214 400 308 135 443 1,918 May-17 1,001 78 18 1,097 179 223 402 308 128 436 1,935 Jun-17 1,105 74 14 1,193 180 230 410 314 124 438 2,041 Jul-17 1,172 65 14 1,251 181 239 420 313 126 439 2,110 Aug-17 1,182 74 15 1,271 180 238 418 308 119 427 2,116 Sep-17 1,165 73 16 1,254 173 232 405 310 111 421 2,080 Oct-17 1,138 75 17 1,230 196 231 427 307 113 420 2,077 Nov-17 1,125 69 15 1,209 198 237 435 300 114 414 2,058 Dec-17 1,150 71 15 1,236 202 235 437 299 117 416 2,089 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 33.4% -13.4% 50.0% 29.6% 11.0% 5.9% 8.2% 1.7% -2.5% 0.5% 17.9% % of Total 2 55.1% 3.4% 0.7% 59.2% 9.7% 11.2% 20.9% 14.3% 5.6% 19.9% 100.0% Notes: 1. Does not include active rigs in the Former Soviet Union and onshore rigs in China. 2. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc. E2: North American Drilling Activity (active oil and gas rigs) United States Canada North America 1 East Mid-West S-Cent N-West West Total Land 2 Offshore Total Oil Gas Total 2015 64 248 395 216 65 977 941 35 193 944 226 1,170 2016 39 117 30 260 84 508 485 23 128 536 100 636 2017 79 169 31 470 136 875 854 20 204 906 172 1,079 4Q 2016 46 128 36 302 91 585 563 23 179 649 116 765 1Q 2017 60 146 30 407 113 739 718 21 288 879 148 1,027 2Q 2017 77 171 33 489 140 892 871 21 115 831 176 1,007 3Q 2017 85 184 31 498 151 947 928 19 208 969 186 1,155 4Q 2017 95 176 31 485 142 921 901 20 205 947 178 1,125 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 105.8% 36.9% -14.0% 60.9% 55.7% 57.3% 60.0% -12.0% 14.1% 46.0% 53.8% 47.2% Dec-16 45 133 36 339 95 634 611 23 209 717 126 843 Jan-17 52 140 30 366 103 683 659 24 302 845 140 985 Feb-17 64 147 29 425 114 744 724 20 309 903 150 1,053 Mar-17 65 151 30 431 121 789 770 19 253 888 154 1,042 Apr-17 76 167 33 482 136 853 833 20 109 796 166 962 May-17 76 167 33 485 137 893 871 22 85 800 178 978 Jun-17 80 178 34 500 146 931 909 22 150 897 184 1,081 Jul-17 81 188 35 504 152 953 931 22 198 962 189 1,151 Aug-17 84 183 29 499 151 947 930 17 217 981 183 1,164 Sep-17 91 181 29 491 149 940 922 18 210 963 187 1,150 Oct-17 95 181 32 479 145 922 901 21 204 945 180 1,126 Nov-17 91 172 30 485 140 911 891 20 205 943 173 1,116 Dec-17 98 174 30 492 140 930 911 19 205 953 182 1,135 Yr-on-Yr Chg. 117.8% 30.8% -16.7% 45.1% 47.4% 46.7% 49.1% -15.8% -1.9% 33.0% 44.1% 34.7% % of Total 3 8.6% 15.3% 2.6% 43.3% 12.3% 81.9% 80.2% 1.7% 18.1% 84.0% 16.0% 100.0% Notes: 1. Excluding Mexico. 2. Includes drilling on inland waterways. 3. As of latest month. Source: Baker Hughes, Inc. Relevant Independent Objective
Page 24 Geographical Specifications 1. The World: OECD is comprised of countries from three regions: North America (Canada, Mexico, US); Europe (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK); and Asia-Pacific (Australia, Japan, New Zealand, South Korea). OPEC is comprised of Persian Gulf (Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates) and non-persian Gulf countries (Algeria, Indonesia, Libya, Nigeria, Venezuela). Non-OECD is comprised of countries from three regions: Former Soviet Union (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kirghizstan, Moldova, Russia, Crude Oil Qualities Producing API Country or Gravity Region (@60 F) Sulfur Content (%) BBLs/Metric Tonne Crude Stream Tapis Blend Malaysia 44 0.1 7.910 Ekofisk Blend Norway 43 0.2 7.773 WTI Texas 40 0.3 7.640 GCS Gulf of Mexico 40 0.3 7.640 Oklahoma Sweet Oklahoma 40 0.3 7.640 Kansas Sweet Kansas 40 0.4 7.640 Wyoming Sweet Wyoming 40 0.2 7.640 ELS Alberta 40 0.5 7.640 Brent Blend United kingdom 38 0.8 7.551 Bonny Light Nigeria 37 0.1 7.506 Oman Blend Oman 36 0.8 7.462 Arabian Light Saudi Arabia 34 1.8 7.373 Minas Indonesia 34 0.1 7.373 Isthmus Mexico 34 1.5 7.373 Michigan Sour Michigan 34 1.7 7.373 WTS Texas 33 1.7 7.328 Urals Russia 32 1.7 7.284 Tia Juana Light Venezuela 32 1.2 7.284 Dubai U.A.E. 31 1.7 7.239 Lost Hills California 30 0.6 7.194 Cano Limon Colombia 28 0.6 7.105 Arabian Heavy Saudi Arabia 27 2.8 7.061 ANS Alaska 27 1.1 7.061 Oriente Ecuador 25 1.4 6.971 Hardisty Heavy Alberta 25 2.1 6.971 Maya Mexico 22 3.3 6.838 Kern River California 13 1.0 6.436 Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan); Asia (including non-oecd Oceania); and non-asia (Africa, Middle East, Latin America, and non- OECD Europe). 2. United States: East (PADD I) New England (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont); Central Atlantic (Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and the District of Columbia) and Lower Atlantic (Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia). Mid -West (PADD II) Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. South-Central (PADD III) Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico and Texas. North-West (PADD IV) Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming. West (PADD V) Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Washington. 3. Canada: East is comprised of Ontario, Manitoba, Quebec and the Maritime provinces (New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island). West is comprised of Alberta, British Columbia, Saskatchewan and the northern territories (NorthWest Territories, Nunavuut, and Yukon). Additional Notes 1. Petroleum and oil refer to crude oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs), whereas crude oil refers to its namesake and field condensates. Condensates derived from natural gas processing plants are classified as NGLs. 2. The spot price is for immediate delivery of crude oil or refined products at a specific location. Spot transactions are generally on a cargo by cargo basis. In contrast, a futures price is for delivery of a specified quantity of a commodity at a specified time and place in the future. 3. Crude oil sold Free-On-Board (FOB) is made available to the buyer at the loading port at a particular time, with transportation and insurance the responsibility of the buyer. Crude oil sold Cost-Insurance-Freight (CIF) is priced at a major destination point, with the seller responsible for the transportation and insurance to that point. A Delivered transaction is similar to a CIF transaction, except the buyer in the former pays based on the quantity and quality ascertained at the unloading port, whereas in a CIF transaction, the buyer accepts the quantity and quality as determined at the loading port. 4. Processing gain is the volume of which refinery output is greater than crude oil inputs. The difference is due to the processing of crude oil products, which in total have a lower specific gravity than crude oil. 5. Unaccounted for crude oil reconciles the difference between crude input to refineries and the sum of domestic production, net imports/exports, stock changes and documented losses (in the U.S.). 6. Totals may not equal the sum of their parts in the statistical tables due to rounding. For more information, please contact Dinara Millington at dmillington@ceri.ca. Canadian Energy Research Institute 150, 3512 33 Street NW Calgary, AB T2L 2A6