Attracting UK consumers and businesses to electric vehicles Dr Ben Lane, Next Green Car / Zap-Map Solar Energy UK 16 th October 2014 NEC, Birmingham
UK charging map www.zap-map.com
ULEV market in UK Source: Next Green Car, May 2014
ULEV market in UK Source: Next Green Car, May 2014
ULEV market comparison UK Source: Committee on Climate Change, 2014
ULEV market attitudes Resistors Enthusiasts & Aspirers Attitudes to electric cars and vans (Sample: UK drivers) Source: Department for Transport, 2014
ULEV market attitudes Factors discouraging buying an EV (Sample: UK drivers) Source: Department for Transport, 2014
UK charging network (public) UK Govt: PiP 2011-2013 13.0m ( 16m); OLEV 2013-2015 36.5m ( 46m) Source: Zap-Map 2014
UK charging network (public) UK Govt: PiP 2011-2013 13.0m ( 16m); OLEV 2013-2015 36.5m ( 46m) Source: Zap-Map 2014
ULEV market in UK Policy drivers EU fleet-average CO 2 target of 130 g/km by 2015 and 95 g/km by 2021; EVs receive super-credits from 2016 CCC has identified EVs as a key technology to support UK 80% CO2 reduction target by 2050 (compared to 1990) Local authorities aim to reduce urban PM10 and NOx: ~4,300 premature annual deaths due to air pollution in London Govt supporting UK automotive industry (7.3% UK output) - 500m over 10yrs for LCV and EV development Source: Committee on Climate Change, 2014
ULEV market in UK Incentives UK Govt: 400m ( 500m) to April 2015; 500m ( 625m) 2015-2020 New Plug-in Car/Van Grants - Up to 5k/ 8k for cars/vans New ECAs (business) worth 7%-10% OTR price (over 4 yrs) All zero car/fuel tax, Ultra Low Emission Discount (London) All zero BIK rate until 2015, 5% P11D from 2016 All some free parking/charging highly variable across UK Administered by Office for Low Emission Vehicles (OLEV) 2014: > 200m for the continuation of Plug-in Car Grant; remain at 5,000 per car until 2017, or until at least 50,000 cars sold, whichever sooner Source: Next Green Car, 2014
UK charging network (public) Investment UK Govt: 36.5m ( 46m) to April 2015; 32m ( 40m) 2015-2020 36.5m ( 46m) for charging infrastructure (to 2015) 75% costs 13.5m ( 17m) for home-based units (<7kW, Type 2) 8m ( 10m) LAs on-street fast chargers (<22kW, Type 2, x2) 3m ( 4m) LAs on-street rapid (43kW AC / 50kW DC) 9m ( 1m) for modal interchanges (<22kW, Type 2, x2) 3m ( 4m) public sector estate (<22kW, Type 2, x2) 2014: Further 32m ( 40m) for fast and rapid network development 2015-2020 with focus on rapid charging infrastructure (target 500+) Source: Next Green Car, 2014
ULEV market success factors Norway (x30 UK sales) incentives worth up to 12,200 (BEVs only) + annual tax exemption, free parking, exempt from road tolls. Netherlands (x10 UK sales) up to 6,800, tax exemption, exempt from income tax for lease vehicles, some free parking. UK needs to implement more low-cost/high-value market incentives UK More model choice (particularly vans) rapid improvement 2011-2014 More support PIFI whole-life cost comparisons and route planning Cost reduction 10-15% battery cost reduction significant market impact Source: Committee on Climate Change, 2014
EVs: Plus ça change? Walter Bersey, 1896: There is no apparent limit to the hopes and expectations of the electric artisans..in short [it] is the natural power which shall be the most intimate and effective of all man s assets. Nissan, 2013: The NV200 cab for London is part of Nissan s global taxi programme, which also encompasses New York, Barcelona and Tokyo Building cars powered by alternative fuels but that still use oil is unsustainable Carlos Ghosn Sources: Wikipedia 2014; Nissan 2014
Attracting UK consumers and businesses to electric vehicles Dr Ben Lane, Next Green Car / Zap-Map Solar Energy UK 16 th October 2014 NEC, Birmingham benlane@nextgreencar.com
www.nextgreencar.com
Ultra Low Emission Vehicles Govt/industry roadmap Battery Electric / BEV Increasing levels of electrification and autonomy EV models available in UK doubling each year (20 in 2013) Top 10 brands offer EV by 2015 NAIGT Roadmap 2009 Plug-in Hybrid EV / PHEV Range-Extended EV / REEV Driverless vehicles
EVs reduced emissions Life cycle 2012-13 models shown using 2-D plot of AQ-GHG ratings coordinates UK context GHG/AQ weighting 60:40 approx. arises purely out of relative value of external costs and emissions of baseline veh. Next Green Car 2013
UK charging network (public) UK Govt: PiP 2011-2013 13.0m ( 16m); OLEV 2013-2015 36.5m ( 46m) Source: Zap-Map 2013