Young Drivers 2016
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Contents Contents... 3 Key facts... 4 Risk... 4 Time series... 7 Vehicle type for young drivers involved in fatal crashes... 9 Who dies?... 10 When do young driver crashes occur?... 10 Who was at fault?... 11 Crash factors... 11 Types of crash... 13 Licence status of young drivers in fatal crashes... 14 Terminology... 15 3
Key facts In 2015 young drivers aged 15 24 were involved in 90 fatal traffic crashes, 579 serious injury crashes and 2,608 minor injury crashes. Of these crashes, the 15 24 year-old drivers had the primary responsibility 1 in 72 of the fatal crashes, 464 of the serious injury crashes and 1,993 of the minor injury crashes. These crashes resulted in 80 deaths, 548 serious injuries and 2,760 minor injuries. 2 The total social cost of the crashes in which 15 24 year-old drivers had the primary responsibility was $951 million. This is 25 percent of the social cost associated with all injury crashes. Risk Figure 1 (from the New Zealand Household Travel Survey 3 ) shows that male drivers in the 15 19 year age group are approximately eight times more likely to crash (per 100 million kilometres driven) than male drivers in the lowest risk age group of 55 59 years. Female drivers aged 15 19 are about six times more likely to crash (per 100 million kilometres driven) than female drivers in the lowest risk group of 45 49 year olds. Drivers in the 20 24 year old age group are approximately three to four times more likely to crash than the lowest risk group of the same gender. 1 The determination of primary responsibility for a crash is based on the crash movements and crash cause factors assigned in the Crash Analysis System. It is not based on legal liability or court conviction. Fault/responsibility here only considers driver and rider factors contributing to the crash. There may also be road or system factors that contributed to the crash. 2 Definitions for fatal, serious and minor injuries and social cost are given in Terminology at the end of the fact sheet. 3 www.transport.govt.nz/research/travelsurvey/ 4
Figure 1: Number of drivers involved in fatal or injury crashes per 100 million km driven (bars) and per 10,000 licence holders (lines), by age and gender (2009 2014) Drivers involved in fatal or injury crashes per 100 million km driven (bars) 250 200 150 100 50 0 Female Female Age group (years) Male Male 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Drivers involved in fatal or injury crashes per 10 000 licence holders - annual average (lines) As the graphs below illustrate, young drivers tend to be over-represented in all types of crash. Recent figures show that 15 19 year-old drivers make up just 4 percent of all licensed car drivers 4. Yet, between 2013 and 2015, 15 19 year-old drivers accounted for 9 percent of all drivers involved in minor injury crashes, 9 percent of drivers in serious injury crashes, and 7 percent of drivers involved in fatal crashes (Figure 2). Similarly, 20 24 year-old drivers make up approximately 9 percent of licensed car drivers but, between 2013 and 2015, they accounted for 15 percent of drivers involved in minor injury crashes, 14 percent of drivers in serious injury crashes, and 12 percent of drivers involved in fatal crashes (Figure 2). Of all young drivers (15 24 years old) involved in fatal crashes between 2013 and 2015, 79 percent were male. Males accounted for 70 percent of young drivers involved in serious injury crashes and 63 percent of those involved in minor injury crashes over the same period. 4 The car licence population consists of drivers with full, restricted or learner car licences. (Motor Vehicle Crashes in New Zealand, 2015) 5
Figure 2: Young drivers as a proportion of all crash involved drivers (2013 2015) 20 24 years 15 19 years Minor Crash severity Serious Fatal 0% 5% 10% 15% Percentage A high proportion (over 70 percent) of fatal crashes involving young drivers (15 24 years old) occur on the open road (speed limits over 70km/h). This is due to the typically high speeds on these roads, which results in a higher impact speed if a crash occurs. Figure 3: Percentage of all fatal crashes that involve young drivers (2013 2015) Age group (years) 15 19 years 20 24 years Urban Open road 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Percentage of fatal crashes Note: This graph includes drivers of all types of motorised vehicle, including motorcycles. Twenty-eight percent of all fatal crashes involve a driver between the ages of 15 and 24 (Figure 3). 6
Time series Table 1: Drivers involved in fatal and injury crashes Year Number % of all drivers in fatal crashes 15 19 year old drivers 20 24 year old drivers Fatal Injury Fatal Injury Number % of all Number % of all Number drivers drivers in injury in fatal crashes crashes % of all drivers in injury crashes 1990 128 13.8% 3,157 16.6% 207 22.3% 3,641 19.2% 1991 115 13.9% 2,947 16.2% 174 21.1% 3,382 18.5% 1992 97 12.0% 2,667 15.3% 160 19.8% 3,381 19.3% 1993 95 12.5% 2,501 15.1% 143 18.8% 3,010 18.2% 1994 76 10.3% 2,786 15.4% 135 18.3% 3,287 18.2% 1995 86 11.0% 2,768 14.9% 130 16.6% 3,466 18.6% 1996 94 14.0% 2,302 14.5% 100 14.9% 2,693 17.0% 1997 81 11.3% 2,149 14.9% 95 13.3% 2,229 15.5% 1998 75 10.9% 1,922 14.5% 105 15.2% 1,979 15.0% 1999 74 10.6% 1,776 13.8% 99 14.2% 1,767 13.8% 2000 60 10.0% 1,541 13.4% 73 12.2% 1,669 14.5% 2001 68 11.4% 1,814 13.8% 75 12.6% 1,814 13.8% 2002 50 9.1% 2,299 14.8% 64 11.6% 2,095 13.5% 2003 77 12.4% 2,301 14.2% 75 12.1% 2,316 14.2% 2004 81 13.8% 2,345 14.7% 71 12.1% 2,209 13.9% 2005 84 15.7% 2,490 14.9% 70 13.1% 2,372 14.2% 2006 64 11.7% 2,630 15.2% 65 11.9% 2,468 14.3% 2007 65 11.6% 2,837 15.2% 74 13.2% 2,630 14.1% 2008 67 14.2% 2,549 14.2% 70 14.8% 2,535 14.2% 2009 59 11.6% 2,366 13.9% 66 13.0% 2,487 14.6% 2010 61 12.1% 2,091 12.8% 68 13.5% 2,370 14.5% 2011 32 8.3% 1,574 10.6% 54 14.0% 2,136 14.4% 2012 23 5.7% 1,358 9.5% 53 13.2% 2,092 14.6% 2013 29 7.8% 1,273 9.0% 47 12.6% 2,078 14.6% 2014 23 5.8% 1,135 8.6% 41 10.4% 1,933 14.6% 2015 36 8.1% 1,356 9.1% 58 13.1% 2,127 14.3% Note: This table includes drivers of all types of motorised vehicle, including motorcycles. In August 2011 the age for obtaining a driver licence increased from 15 to 16. 7
Table 2: Vehicle type and gender of young drivers involved in fatal crashes 15 19 year-old drivers 20 24 year-old drivers Car/van Motorcycle Car/van Motorcycle Year Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total Male Female Total 2000 38 17 55 3 0 3 55 11 66 4 0 4 2001 50 11 61 7 0 7 57 11 68 5 0 5 2002 32 12 44 5 0 5 41 16 57 3 0 3 2003 58 14 72 3 0 3 52 18 70 2 0 2 2004 58 18 76 3 1 4 45 16 61 5 0 5 2005 56 17 73 8 0 8 48 12 60 2 0 2 2006 39 20 59 3 0 3 38 18 56 6 0 6 2007 40 21 61 4 0 4 45 18 63 6 0 6 2008 42 15 57 7 0 7 44 14 58 5 4 9 2009 39 16 55 3 0 3 40 19 59 3 0 3 2010 44 12 56 3 0 3 36 21 57 9 0 9 2011 27 5 32 0 0 0 38 10 48 4 0 4 2012 17 4 21 1 0 1 34 11 45 5 0 5 2013 22 5 27 1 0 1 25 13 38 7 0 7 2014 16 5 21 2 0 2 25 8 33 5 0 4 2015 26 5 31 3 1 4 39 11 50 7 0 4 Note: In August 2011 the age for obtaining a driver licence increased from 15 to 16. 8
Vehicle type for young drivers involved in fatal crashes Figure 4: 15-19 year old drivers involved in fatal crashes by vehicle type (1985 2015) 160 Fatal crashes 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Car/Van Motorcycle Year Note: In August 2011 the age for obtaining a driver licence increased from 15 to 16. Since 1985 there has been an 74 percent reduction in the number of 15 19 year old car drivers involved in fatal crashes, and a 90 percent reduction in the number of motorcycle riders in the same age group. Figure 5: 20-24 year old drivers involved in fatal crashes by vehicle type (1985 2015) 160 Fatal crashes 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Car/Van Motorcycle Year Since 1985 there has been a 65 percent reduction in the number of 20 24 year old car drivers involved in fatal crashes, and an 91 percent reduction in the number of motorcycle riders in the same age group involved in fatal crashes. 9
Who dies in crashes with young drivers? People in the 15 24 year old age group are most likely to die in fatal crashes in which young drivers of a similar age have the primary responsibility. Between 2013 and 2015, 71 percent of the passengers who died in vehicles driven by young at-fault drivers were in the 15 24 year old age group. Table 3: Deaths in crashes where 15-24 year old drivers were at fault (2013 2015) Age At-fault drivers At-fault drivers passengers Other road users 0 14 0 6 0 15 19 40 24 2 20 24 69 20 3 25 29 0 5 3 30 34 0 0 1 35 39 0 0 1 40 44 0 0 4 45 49 0 1 1 50 54 0 0 4 55 59 0 1 1 60+ 0 0 12 Unknown 0 5 0 Total 109 62 32 Note: The table includes drivers of all types of motorised vehicle, including motorcycles. When do young driver crashes occur? Table 4: Fatal crashes involving 15-24 year old drivers by time of day and day of week (2013 2015) Day Day (0600 1759) Evening (1800 2159) Night (2200 0559) Fatal crashes % all fatal involving crashes young drivers Fatal crashes involving young drivers % all fatal crashes Fatal crashes % all fatal involving crashes young drivers Monday 21 28% 5 29% 2 25% Tuesday 13 19% 1 8% 5 36% Wednesday 8 12% 7 35% 12 50% Thursday 18 22% 5 24% 11 44% Friday 11 19% 14 47% 22 54% Saturday 14 20% 10 63% 20 43% Sunday 13 21% 4 29% 7 41% Total 98 20% 46 35% 79 45% Note: On the day shown, night begins at 2200 and finishes the following day at 0559. Percentages are the percentage of all fatal crashes in that time period that involve a young driver. 10
Young drivers tend to be disproportionately represented in fatal crashes at night. For example, between 2013 and 2015, 45 percent of night-time crashes and over 50 percent of fatal crashes occurring on Friday nights involved a young driver, whereas only 20 percent of daytime fatal crashes involved a young driver. Who was at fault? Figure 6: Young driver fault in crashes (2011 2015) Single vehicle, no young driver fault identified, 1% Single vehicle, young driver at fault, 35% Multi vehicle, young driver some responsibility, 4% Multi vehicle, no young driver fault identified, 19% Multi vehicle, young driver primary responsibility, 41% A young driver has the primary responsibility 5 for about three-quarters (76%) of all the crashes involving young drivers. A young driver has the primary responsibility for about two-thirds (65%) of the crashes that also involve other road users. Crash factors Alcohol/drugs, losing control and speed are the major contributing factors for young drivers involved in fatal crashes. Over half (53%) the young drivers involved in fatal crashes had alcohol/drugs and/or speed identified as factors contributing to the crash. Young drivers are over twice as likely to have speed or alcohol as a factor than drivers over the age of 25. 5 Primary responsibility (fault) for a crash is based on the crash movements and crash cause factors assigned in the Crash Analysis System. It is not based on legal liability or court conviction. Fault/responsibility here only considers driver and rider factors contributing to the crash. There may also be road or system factors that contributed to the crash. 11
Figure 7: Young driver alcohol/drugs and speed involvement in fatal crashes (2011 2015) Alcohol/drugs, 15% Neither, 47% Alcohol/drugs and Speed, 23% Speed, 15% Figure 8: Driver contribution to fatal crashes by age group (2011 2015) 15 24 year olds 25 + years old Lost control Alcohol Too fast for conditions Inexperience Driver tired or f ell asleep Inattention or attention diverted Failed to keep left Failed to give way Too far left Racing/showing of f Did not see other party Overtaking Suddenly braked or turned Illness/Disability Forbidden movement 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Percentage of drivers 12
Types of crash Crashes which involve drivers losing control of their vehicles (see lost control/off road on the graph below) are a major feature in crashes involving young drivers. Forty percent of 15 24 year-old drivers involved in fatal crashes were in single-vehicle loss of control or run off road crashes, compared with 20 percent for older drivers. In addition, many of the head-on crashes also involve drivers losing control of their vehicles. Figure 9: Percentage of drivers involved in fatal crashes by crash movement (2013 2015) Overtaking or lane change Head on Lost control / off road Collision with obstruction or rear end Intersection or turning Pedestrian 15 24 years 25 years and over Other 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Percentage of drivers 13
Licence status of young drivers in fatal crashes The following graphs show the licence status of 15 24 year-old drivers involved in fatal crashes. Restricted and learner licence holders make up a large proportion of these drivers; 53 percent for 15 19 year olds and 33 percent for 20 24 year olds. A similar pattern occurs for 15 24 year-old drivers involved in injury crashes. This reflects the high number of learner and restricted licence holders in this age group. Figure 10: Licence status of 15-19 year old drivers involved in fatal crashes (2013 2015) Learner Restricted Full Overseas Disqualif ied/forbidden Never licensed Unknown/other 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Note: Unknown/other includes drivers with an expired, unknown or incorrect licence class. Figure 11: Licence status of 20-24 year old drivers involved in fatal crashes (2013 2015) Learner Restricted Full Overseas Disqualif ied/forbidden Never licensed Unknown/other 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Note: Unknown/other includes drivers with an expired, unknown or incorrect licence class. 14
Terminology Fatal injuries: injuries that result in death within 30 days of the crash. Serious injuries: fractures, concussions, internal injuries, crushings, severe cuts and lacerations, several general shock necessitating medical treatment and any other injury involving removal to and detention in hospital. Minor injuries: injuries of a minor nature such as sprains and bruises. Social cost: a measure of the total cost of road crashes to the nation. It includes: loss of life and life quality; loss of productivity; and medical, legal, court, and property damage costs. Crash fault/responsibility: Primary responsibility (at-fault) for a crash is based on the crash movements and crash cause factors assigned in the Crash Analysis System. It is not based on legal liability or court conviction. Fault/responsibility here only considers driver and rider factors contributing to the crash. There may also be road or system factors that contributed to the crash. 15