Experian Automotive Quarterly Briefing First quarter 214 automotive market share trends and registrations Melinda Zabritski Senior Director Marty Miller Senior Product Manager Experian Automotive Experian and the marks used herein are service marks or registered trademarks of Experian Information Solutions, Inc. Other product and company names mentioned herein are the trademarks of their respective owners. No part of this copyrighted work may be reproduced, modified, or distributed in any form or manner without the prior written permission of Experian.
Session overview What s on the Road VIO by model year, segment and market share Average vehicle age US light duty vehicles through March 31, 214 Marty Miller Senior Product Manager Registrations Market share & registrations YTD for US and Census Regions Manufacturer, brand on model share Domestic versus Imports Melinda Zabritski Senior Director 2
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INSERT PICTURE HERE Vehicles in Operation What s on the road today? 4
What s on the road today VIO additions/deletions: 3.8 million (12.5%) (scrapped + new sales) VIO total changes: 68.4 million (27.7%) (used sales + scrappage + new sales) Vehicles in operation Q1 213 247.4 million Scrapped vehicles 15.4 million Carryover Used vehicle sales 38.4 million Vehicles in operation Q1 214 247.4 million New vehicle sales 15.4 million 5
VIO change by model year (in millions) Q1 213 to Q1 214 New Sales 16 Lost 9M Vehicles MY1993 22 Scrappage 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 6
VIO by model year (in millions) 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 7
VIO by model year (in millions) 16 93.7 mm vehicles within sweet spot (MY23 29) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 215 8
Average age of vehicles on the road today (millions) Percentage of vehicles by age group 12 1 8 6 4 2 1.1 1.5 1.8 11 11.2 11.2 7.4 7.7 7.8 7.9 7.9 7.8 Q1 29 Q1 21 Q1 211 Q1 212 Q1 213 Q1 214 Average Age 15-Year Rolling Age 3% 25% 2% 15% 27.2% 28.3% 24.6% 25.7% 22.1% 23.1% Q1 29 Q1 21 Q1 211 Q1 212 Q1 213 Q1 214 16+ MY Age 9
Market share of VIO for domestic v imports (MY1991+) 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Import Brand Domestic (Detroit 3) Brand 1
Market share of vehicles in operation by manufacturer 3% 25% 26.1% 2% 18.6% 15% 12.7% 12.4% 1% 5% % 8.7% 5.9% 2.4% 2.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 2.8% 11
Top 2 segments on the road Pickup - Full Sized Mid Range Car - Standard Small Car - Economy Mid Range Car - Lower SUV - Lower Mid Range CUV - Entry Level Van - Mini Pickup - Small Mid Range Car - Premium Upscale - Near Luxury SUV - Large CUV - Mid Range SUV - Entry Level Sport Car - Touring Upscale - Luxury Van - Full Sized CUV - Premium Small Car - Budget Traditional Car Alt Power - Hybrid Car 2.1% 1.9% 14.9% 11.7% 9.2% 8.3% 5.6% 5.5% 5.4% 5.1% 4.4% 3.9% 3.4% 3.3% 3.% 2.7% 2.6% All hybrids/electrics = 1.28% 1.4% 1.4% 1.1% 12
Market share by model year of high aspirated vehicles (turbocharged/supercharged) by cylinder 13
INSERT PICTURE HERE Vehicle registrations & market share What metal is moving? 14
Year-to-date vehicle registrations Millions 16 14 12 1 8 1.6 1.2 1.31 1.82 1.57 1.44 6 4 2 2.39 2.72 3.2 3.59 3.83 3.92 Q1 29 Q1 21 Q1 211 Q1 212 Q1 213 Q1 214 New Used 15
Census regions Northeast Region West Region Midwest Region South Region 16
Total (new & used) registrations by census region Millions 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Q1 29 Q1 21 Q1 211 Q1 212 Q1 213 Q1 214 Midwest Region Northeast Region South Region West Region 17
New & used registrations by region (millions) 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 Midwest region Q1 29 Q1 21 Q1 211 Q1 212 Q1 213 Q1 214 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Northeast region 17.6% 18.7% 21.6% 22.6% 23.3% 24.5% 24.9% 26.4% 29.8% 3.1% 31.7% 32.% West region New 19.% 2.3% 22.1% 24.2% 26.9% 27.8% Q1 29 Q1 21 Q1 211 Q1 212 Q1 213 Q1 214 Used Q1 29 Q1 21 Q1 211 Q1 212 Q1 213 Q1 214 South region 17.8% 21.4% 23.5% 24.4% 26.6% 27.1% Q1 29 Q1 21 Q1 211 Q1 212 Q1 213 Q1 214 18
Top new registrations by segment Thousands 6 5 CUV has surpassed Full Sized Pickups by 26k in Q1 214 4 3 Q1 213 Q1 214 2 1 - CUV - Entry Level Pickup - Full Sized Small Car - Economy Mid Range Car - Standard Mid Range Car - Lower CUV - Mid Range SUV - Lower Mid Range CUV - Premium Van - Mini Upscale - Near Luxury 19
Top 1 CUV Entry Level 8, 7, 6, 5, Q1 213 Q1 214 4, 3, 2, 1, Escape CR-V Equinox RAV4 Rogue CX-5 Terrain Journey Santa Fe (incl XL) XV Crosstrek 2
Winners and losers by year-over-year registration change Winners CUV - Entry Level SUV - Lower Mid Range Pickup - Full Sized CUV - Premium Small Car - Budget Van - Full Sized Upscale - Luxury Sport Car - Premium CUV - Mid Range SUV - Upper Mid Range -25 25 75 Losers -4-3 -2-1 SUV - Pickup Upscale - Premium Sport Car - Touring Pickup - Small SUV - Large Mid Range Car - Standard SUV - Premium Large Mid Range Car - Premium Alt Power Mid Range Car - Lower 21
Top 5 new segments by region Midwest Region Northeast Region 2% 2% 15% 15% 1% 1% 5% 5% % CUV - Entry Level Pickup - Full Sized Small Car - Economy Mid Range Car - Lower Mid Range Car - Standard % CUV - Mid Range Entry Level Car - Standard Small Car - Economy Mid Range Car - Lower Pickup - Full Sized Western Region South Region 15% 15% 1% 1% 5% 5% % Small Car - Economy Mid Range Car - Standard Pickup - Full Sized CUV - Mid Range Entry Level Car - Lower % Pickup - Full Sized Small Car - Economy Mid Range Car - Standard CUV - Mid Range Entry Level Car - Lower 22
New import versus domestics Millions 4.5 4. 3.5 New registrations Domestic Import 6% 58% Import share of new registrations 3. 56% 2.5 2. 1.5 54% 52% 52.7% 52.9% 53.4% 53.% 51.8% 52.2% 1. 5%.5 48%. 29 21 211 212 213 214 46% 29 21 211 212 213 214 23
Import versus domestic new registrations and market share by region (millions) Midwest region Northeast region 1..8.8.6.4.2. 63.2% 61.3% 62.7% 6.8% 63.8% 63.3% Q1 29 Q1 21 Q1 211 Q1 212 Q1 213 Q1 214.6.4.2. 39.% 35.5% 38.4% 38.9% 39.7% 41.2% Q1 29 Q1 21 Q1 211 Q1 212 Q1 213 Q1 214.9.8.7.6.5.4.3.2.1. West region Domestic 37.6% 36.9% 36.7% 38.2% 39.2% 38.9% Q1 29 Q1 21 Q1 211 Q1 212 Q1 213 Q1 214 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..8.6.4.2. Import South region 47.4% 5.1% 46.6% 47.7% 48.6% 47.6% Q1 29 Q1 21 Q1 211 Q1 212 Q1 213 Q1 214 24
Manufacturer market share (ranking based on 214 share) 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Who is up (bps)? Chrysler 11 Nissan 6 Kia 12 Who is down (bps)? GM -77 Ford -75 Honda -41 VW -18 Toyota -1 Hyundai -8 GM Ford Toyota Chrysler Nissan Honda Hyundai Kia VW Others Q1 213 Q1 214 25
Manufacturer market share: Top others.%.5% 1.% 1.5% 2.% 2.5% 3.% 3.5% Subaru BMW Daimler Mazda Mitsubishi Tata Volvo Porsche Tesla.4%.5%.4%.5%.4%.3%.3%.3%.1%.1% Who is up (bps)? Subaru 49 Daimler 12 Mitsubishi 8 Mazda 5 Tata 2 2.3% 2.2% 1.9% 2.1% 1.9% 2.% 2.5% 3.% Who is down (bps)? BMW -1 Tesla -5 Volvo -5 Q1 213 Q1 214 26
Top 5 new manufacturer market share by region Midwest Region Northeast Region 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % GM Ford Chrysler Toyota Honda 3% 2% 1% % GM Toyota Ford Honda Chrysler Western Region South Region 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% % Toyota Ford GM Chrysler Honda % GM Toyota Ford Chrysler Nissan 27
Top 5 manufacturer market share gains (basis points) by region Midwest Region Northeast Region 2 25 15 1 5 2 15 1 5 Chrysler Subaru Mazda Nissan Daimler Chrysler Subaru Nissan Daimler Mitsubishi West Region South Region 15 1 5 122 76 45 22 18 1 8 6 4 2 85 26 24 22 14 Chrysler Nissan Subaru Kia Mazda Nissan Chrysler Subaru Hyundai Kia 28
Top 1 new registrations by manufacturer Thousands 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Q1 213 Q1 214 29
Top manufacturer gains and losses by registration count -2-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 Chrysler Nissan Subaru Toyota Kia VW Suzuki Honda GM Ford Thousands 3
Chrysler s market gains Thousands 7 6 5 Q1 213 Q1 214 4 3 2 1 Cherokee 15 Grand Cherokee 25 Patriot Compass Grand Caravan 5L Wrangler Town & Country 31
Top manufacturer* gains and losses by percentage of volume change -4% -3% -2% -1% % 1% 2% 3% Subaru Mitsubishi Chrysler Nissan Daimler Honda Ford VW Volvo Tesla *Average minimum of 1k/month registrations 32
Top 1 new registrations by brand Thousands 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Q1 213 Q1 214 33
Year-over-year brand gains and losses by registration count -3-2 -1 1 2 3 4 5 6 Jeep Nissan Ram Subaru Lexus Volkswagen Honda Chevrolet Dodge Ford Thousands 34
Top 1 models Thousands 14 12 Q1 213 Q1 214 1 8 6 4 2 F15 Camry Altima Silverado 15 Accord Fusion Corolla Civic Escape CR-V 35
F15 versus Camry Thousands 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 F15 Camry 4 Q1 25 Q1 26 Q1 27 Q1 28 Q1 29 Q1 21 Q1 211 Q1 212 Q1 213 Q1 214 36
Top model year-over-year* gains and losses by registration count Thousands 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Q1 213 Q1 214 *Average minimum of 1k/month registrations and where registrations present in prior year 37
Top 5 new models gains* by region 2, 15, 1, 5, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Midwest Region CX-5 15 Rogue Forester Encore West Region Forester Sentra Rogue RAV4 15 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 213 214 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Northeast Region Rogue Forester XV Crosstrek South Region Grand Cherokee RAV4 Cruze Sentra RAV4 Rogue Soul *Not including models not applicable in Q1 213 38
Top 5 new models by region Midwest Region Northeast Region 4, 25, 3, 2, 2, 1, F15 Fusion Escape Silverado 15 Equinox 15, 1, 5, CR-V Accord Escape Rogue Civic Western Region South Region 22, 21,8 21,6 21,4 21,2 21, F15 Accord Civic Corolla Camry 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, F15 Camry Altima Silverado 15 Corolla 39
In summary Overall automotive market size remains the same yet sweet spot shrinks as older vehicle market size continues to grow Powerful and fuel efficient engines gain popularity as do the smaller-sized vehicle segments Sluggish total registrations as used is off 1.2% while new grew 2.3% YOY. With a greater focus on used vehicles, Midwest Region is down 2.8% YOY CUV-Entry Level led the vehicle segments, passing full size pickups and entry level economy cars for the first time in over 1 years. F15 remains in the lead as the number one model. GM continues to lead the market with Chrysler experiencing the most significant YOY registration count and Subaru the largest YOY market share growth 4