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Calculating the total number of passenger cars in use is a pretty tough job, but the number is growing rapidly and some analysts estimate there could already be over a billion light-duty vehicles on the roads. Total new light-duty sales were just under 89 million in 2015, but there are suggestions that annual sales could soar to 122 million by 2035 with the vast majority of this growth expected to come from developing countries in Asia Pacific, especially from China and India. Just 2.5% of vehicles in use in 2035 are expected to be battery electric, plug-in hybrid, or fuel-cell vehicles. Another 8 percent are likely to be hybrid-electric or natural-gas powered - the rest will still use some form of gasoline or diesel fuelled engine. Stop-start systems are projected to grow significantly as a strategy to help OEMs comply with international fuel efficiency standards and could be fitted on more than 45% of all vehicles sold in the next two decades. 2
In Europe, cars are the number one source of mobility, and in 2015 all major markets in the region recorded strong growth, with new passenger car registrations increasing by more than 9% - and, while this is encouraging news, this result is only now passing levels registered in 2010, immediately after the economic crisis. In other words, the trend is positive but, in absolute terms volumes remain low. Looking at the five major European markets, Spain and Italy posted double digit growth in demand during the year, and were followed by France, the UK and Germany, which all posted robust performance. 3
In terms of sales of diesel vehicles in Western Europe, we can see a sharp rise in the diesel share of the market year on year up to 2007 but, since EURO 4, the diesel share seems to have plateaued. 4
Although there are many market players and individual brands, the top five OEM Groups hold more than 60 percent market share in Europe. 70% of the new cars these OEMs produce emit less than 130g of CO 2 per kilometer and an average new car today consumes 15% less fuel per 100km than 10 years ago, but there is still activity to cut these figures further and to reduce other noxious exhaust emissions. 5
The industry has had to work hard to comply with the latest emissions legislation. For light duty diesel cars, while we had an 11 year gap between the introduction of Euro 3 and Euro 5, only 3 years elapsed until the industry was faced with challenge of meeting Euro 6 requirements in 2014. Euro 6 introduced significantly lower NOx limits, which pushed OEMs to consider - on top of the well-known Exhaust Gas Recirculation systems - the introduction of Selective Catalyst Reduction (SCR) or lean NOx trap systems, the later being applied on smaller Euro 6 diesel engines. While Euro 6 was also introduced for gasoline vehicles in 2014, the only change over Euro 5b was the introduction of a particulate number limit. 6
CO2 emissions legislation has also been tightening and from 2015 the law requires that new cars registered in the EU do not emit more than an average of 130 grams of CO2 per kilometre (g CO2/km). This means a fuel consumption of around 5.6 litres per 100 km (l/100 km) of petrol or 4.9l/100 km of diesel. Provisional data from a recent report, indicate that vehicles sold in the European Union in 2014 were, on average, 2.5% more efficient than those sold the previous year with the average CO2 emissions being 123.4 g per kilometre which is significantly below the 2015 target. Of the individual car manufacturers, Renault had the lowest average CO2 emissions (108 g CO2/km) for new passenger vehicles registered in 2014 and the highest percentage of vehicles with emissions below 95g CO2/km which is the next limit change that OEMs must prepare to meet by 2020. The fines for non compliance are very significant particularly from 2019, when every excess gram will incur a 95 euro fine per vehicle which for some OEMs could run to billions of euros per annum. With such large penalties It is hardly surprising that fuel economy improvement is high on the agenda for all OEMs. And although, as we will see later, this is leading to hardware and operational changes lubricant derived fuel economy is also gaining greater attention, which is driving some of the changes to industry and OEM lubricant specifications so lets take a look at some of the main specification changes. 7
The current focus in Europe is the revision to the ACEA European Oil Sequences. We have already mentioned that the availability of the OM646Bio and the new elastomer tests are the rate determining tests for the HD sequences. While these tests also feature in the light-duty sequences, there are more tests in the development pipeline for light-duty, some of which are currently expected to become available at end of the second quarter at the earliest which leaves some uncertainty around the issue date for ACEA 2016. A very active AAA [triple A] discussion is still on-going about the details of the ACEA light-duty specifications, which means the following slides are only a snapshot of the status. 8
Here is a closer look at the status of some of the tests, and Jacquie Berryman, Infineum Industry Liaison, gives us an update on their progress. Jacquie Berryman From the outset of ACEA sequence introduction back in 1996 the key drivers for updates has been to improve engine protection whilst increasing fuel economy and reducing emissions and to do this by using hardware that is reflective of current engine designs. ACEA 2016 is no different in this regard as new tests are being developed to replace those whose hardware is coming to the end of its life for example the TU5, a high temperature oxidation test, will come to the end of its life soon and will be replaced in the new sequences by the EP6 test, which assesses piston cleanliness in gasoline engine applications; the DV4 will be replaced by the DV6 and the M271EVO will replace the current non CEC sludge test, which was introduced as a stop gap when the M111 sludge test became unavailable; what is different about the 2016 update though, is that the use of bio diesel needs to be reflected in the sequences; the impact of biofuel on oxidation control, engine wear and deposits is driving the need for new tests to be developed like the L-109 which will replace the GFC oxidation test in the Light Duty sequences and the introduction of the OM646Bio test which addresses piston cleanliness in the presence of biodiesel and which will be common to both the Light and Heavy Duty sequences. Once the tests are available the challenge ahead will be to set appropriate limits. Currently it looks likely that the ACEA Sequences will be ready for release in 2016, 9
leaving ACEA 2012 marketable until at least 2018. However, Industry is already starting to work on the subsequent specification release let s hear from Jacquie once more. Jacquie Berryman I think the real challenge for the industry is to define a process which will allow future ACEA specifications to be introduced in a more efficient manner and to do that within the context of limited industry resources but apart from this it is clear that the industry needs to start working already on the next specification release and assessing the need for replacement of tests which we already know are likely to come to the end of their life during the course of the 2016 specifications, like the OM646, the VW TDi and M111 Fuel Economy to name just three. 9
For the 2016 issue of the light-duty sequences a new C5 mid-saps category with High Temperature High Shear or HTHS from 2.6 to 2.9 will be added. This specification provides the common base for aftertreatment compatible low viscosity fuel economy oils. The focus on fuel economy is reflected by a demanding M111FE fuel economy limit. ACEA has taken time to review the current sequences and has agreed on a first step to remove A1/B1 from ACEA 2016. 10
Looking at OEM fuel economy specifications, we can see a huge fragmentation in their requirements with, NOACK volatilities ranging from less than 10 to more than 13% and a wide range of both SAE grades and high temperature high shear viscosities in play. It is increasingly important to find the right balance between formulation cost and fuel economy gain. 11
Over in North America industry focus is on the new ILSAC GF-6 lubricant specification development. GF- 6A will replace the current ILSAC GF-5 specification, and will be represented by the Starburst/Certification Trademark. It will deliver improvements in fuel economy, fuel economy retention and engine oil robustness along with adjustments to physical limits to allow improved performance while maintaining overall durability. GF- 6B provides the same performance as GF-6A, but with the added aim of lower HTHS to deliver potential further fuel economy benefits. 12
Seven new tests are being developed for GF-6 and with all this activity, the timeline has already slipped and may be prone to further delay. 13
On top of the challenges of introducing GF-6, there is a high probability that five existing tests could become unavailable in 2016. The industry has never faced the situation of more than one test at a time becoming unavailable or out of control. Immediate impacts will be on the new API SN/ resource conserving category and second generation dexos1. Older heavy-duty categories will also be impacted by both the demise of the Sequence IIIG and IIIF, until a ASTM replacement test is available. 14
These are the key dates - the hope is that industry matrices will finish in the next few months leading to ASTM test acceptance of the new tests it is all very tight now. 15
As we have explained, industry specifications define standards that are meant to offer basic protection for common engines under typical usage. For specific engines or a- typical usage that need additional lubricant performance the relevant OEM can more usefully address this requirement via their own in house specifications. One of the highest priorities for OEMs is to capture fuel economy benefits while maintaining engine durability. Another factor driving specification development is the fact that OEMs are global players, and their vehicles must remain reliably in operation even when fuel quality is variable. This is driving the development of more robust engine oils to deal with poor fuel quality and to ensure biofuel compatibility. Clearly all these requirements are increasing the level of complexity involved in developing lubricants for passenger cars. Sabine Fleiss, Senior Engineer at Volvo provides further insight. Sabine Fleiss That challenge has not changed so much in the last 20 years. The efficiency needs to be increased while the requirements in performance rises and no customer is willing to pay more or lose comfort with the next generation of vehicles. As long as a decrease in viscosity will gain friction decrease resulting in fuel economy improvement, while keeping the lubricant performance to an optimum, we will ask for a thinner oil. I don t see any technical limits for lower viscosity today. 16
Taking a closer look at the drive for fuel economy improvements, many OEMs have already moved from 3.5 HTHS to 2.9 and most OEMs are working towards their optimum fuel economy objective of 2.6 HTHS although Honda has already launched it s SAE 0W-16 Green Oil with an HTHS of 2.3. This move to lower HTHS is challenging for soot producing diesel engines where abrasive wear can be an issue, and meeting 2.6 HTHS may be difficult to achieve. The huge fragmentation in OEM fuel economy specifications at different SAPS levels and with different viscometrics mean it is much more difficult to achieve all claims in a single lubricant, making logistics far more complex. Another complexity comes from the limited backward compatibility of lower HTHS oils with current 3.5 HTHS products which means the number of products in the market place is growing - increasing the potential for misapplication. Sabine Fleiss The way soot can limit the ability to decrease HTHSV is an issue we need to work on from all aspects. It is not enough to set a safe limit for HTHSV for Diesel engines. Oil volume, filter technology, crank case ventilation, variable oil cooling as well as the lubricant as such need to be improved and pushed to the limits. 17
Clearly it s not all about the lubricant. OEMs are also making hardware changes to conventional gasoline and diesel engines to ensure they meet emissions and fuel economy targets. To cut emissions we have seen the introduction of Exhaust gas recirculation, oxidation catalysts, diesel particulate filters and selective catalytic reduction and we are already seeing the introduction of Gasoline particulate filters to meet Euro 6. The innovations regarding fuel economy improvement are too numerous to mention, but start stop systems, the use of smaller, turbocharged engines, advances to timing and combustion and the use of new materials to make the engine lighter are just some of the measures OEMs are adopting. In these smaller, more complex systems, todays lubricants must work much harder to keep engines clean for longer, while protecting the latest engine and aftertreatment technologies and contributing to fuel economy performance. 18
Although not a new phenomenon, LSPI has become more common with the increased use of turbocharging in downsized gasoline direct-injected engines. Let s hear more from Infineum s Anne Young. Anne Young Low speed pre-ignition or LSPI is one of the new tests that will be part of the upcoming GF-6 specification. LSPI is an abnormal combustion event that can lead to severe engine damage such as broken pistons and can also be heard as a knocking sound. This is a recording of a multi-cycle LSPI event. OEMs are taking a variety of steps to address and suppress LSPI including engineering solutions such as the use of cooled EGR, increased crevice volume and higher ring tension - and via engine management strategies. However, there is an associated increase in the cost of engineering and a sacrifice of on-the-road fuel economy performance. In our view, a smartly formulated lubricant which reduces LSPI events within the context of a given fuel; can add significant value for both the lubricant marketer and the OEM. 19
As we have already seen, OEMs are making significant changes to hardware to meet fuel economy and emissions regulations and lubricant formulations must keep pace. The advancement of engine technology through downsizing and the introduction of direct injection gasoline engines present a challenging environment for the engine oil. These hardware changes mean higher specific power density and lubricant temperatures, - and at the same time - reduced oil volumes mean the lubricant resides in the piston zone for longer and is exposed to NOx at higher temperatures. These changes mean that we see four main lubrication challenges. Today s lubricants must be formulated to keep engines cleaner over longer drain intervals and to offer thermal stability in these smaller hotter engines, they must also prevent oil degradation to enable extended drains while ensuring enhanced engine protection and as we have already discussed lubricants must contribute to fuel economy improvement while protecting the engine from wear. 20
As we have seen in this section, fuel economy and emissions reduction are the two key drivers for change in the passenger car market. New requirements and test redundancy have driven the development of new industry specifications on both sides of the Atlantic to ensure lubricants continue to offer acceptable performance to all stakeholders. Now, as OEMs work on new technologies to meet the tightening environmental targets, lubricant protection and performance requirements beyond those delivered by the industry specifications must be defined in their own in-house specifications. With these hardware changes come new challenges and it is now essential todeliver lubricant technologies that will allow OEMs to operate in engine regimes which can deliver improved fuel consumption and reduced CO 2 emissions. In our view, as complexity and cost continue to increase, it is time for the industry to stop and challenge the status quo for industry specifications and this is something we will examine in more detail after the next section on heavy duty diesel engines. 21