EV market trends and outlook Shift Up a Gear Colin McKerracher Head of Advanced Transport Bloomberg New Energy Finance @colinmckerrache September 6, 2017
Analysis to help you understand the future of energy and transport Solar Wind Power and Utilities Gas Carbon Markets & Climate Energy Smart Technologies Storage Electric Vehicles Mobility and Autonomous Driving Frontier Power Emerging Technologies Americas Europe, Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific 1 September 06, 2017
Global EV sales by region Thousand units 1,018 We expect passenger EV sales to be just over 1m in 2017 695 21 46 218 448 23 158 283 122 56 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Marklines, automakers, vehicle registration agencies Note: EV sales include BEV and PHEV sales. China data exclude low-speed EV sales and commercial vehicles. 2 September 06, 2017 27 30 206 96 66 29 288 116 96 32 36 115 182 114 209 283 435 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 China Europe US Japan Canada South Korea RoW
Countries where EVs were above 1% of total passenger vehicle sales Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Marklines 3 September 06, 2017
China s vehicle sales according to the recent 2025 plan Millions of vehicles sold 19.3 22.0 23.5 24.6 28.0 0.5 30 2 35 7 19.3 22.0 23.4 24.3 27.5 28 28 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2020e 2025e Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) New Energy Vehicle (NEV) Source: China Automotive Information Net, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 4 September 06, 2017
Electric vehicle model availability Number of models available 250 Examples of automakers stated electrification targets 200 VW Group 2.5 million annual EV sales by 2025 Daimler 15%-25% of annual sales being EVs by 2025 Honda 15% of annual sales being BEVs by 2030 150 100 FCV PHEV BEV 50 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 5 September 06, 2017
BNEF 2016 battery pack price survey results, 2010-2016 ($ per kwh) 1000-20% -20% -7% -10% -35% -22% 800 642 599 540 350 273 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: This includes cells plus pack prices and is an average of BEV and PHEV prices. For years where there were two surveys, the data in this chart is an average for the year. 6 September 06, 2017
The supply chain is maturing Global EV lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity 2017 capacity: 90 GWh/year 2021 planned* capacity: 290 GWh/year Source: BNEF battery manufacturing database. *Planned = announced or under construction 7 September 06, 2017
Metal content of lithium-ion batteries by cathode chemistry, % of total metal content by weight per kwh 2 33 28 26 26 17 8 %Phosphorous 89 73 94 30 36 45 54 72 %Iron %Manganese %Aluminum 60 %Nickel 14 30 27 18 18 9 %Cobalt %Lithium 11 11 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: The numbers associated with NMC represent the ratio of Nickel:Manganese:Cobalt in each particular blend. 8 September 06, 2017 6 7 LCO NCA LMO LFP NMC (111) 12 11 11 11 11 NMC (433) NMC (532) NMC (622) NMC (811)
Annual global light duty vehicle sales million cars per year 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 8% 1% 3% 43% 24% 54% 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 ICE sales, total EV sales, total EV % of new sales Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: ICE sales include traditional hybrids. 9 September 06, 2017
EV forecasts then and now EV fleet size, 2020-40 Million EVs 600 500 400 300 200 100 BNEF 2016 BNEF 2017 BP 2016 BP 2017 Exxon 2016 Exxon 2017 OPEC 2015 OPEC 2016 IEA 2016-2020 25 30 35 40 IEA 2017 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, organization websites. Notes: IEA forecasts to 2030 and BP forecasts to 2035. OPEC has not yet published its 2017 Oil Outlook. Only BNEF and OPEC provide annual data points for EV fleet size. Some data points for BP, ExxonMobil, OPEC and the IEA are estimated based on organization charts, reports and data. BNEF, BP and OPEC forecasts include just BEVs and PHEVs. ExxonMobil and IEA forecasts include BEVs, PHEVs and fuel cell vehicles. For more on the changes between BNEF s 2016 and 2017 long-term EV forecasts, see our July 6, 2017 Research Note Global EV Sales Outlook to 2040 (web terminal). 10 September 06, 2017
Impact of raw material price fluctuations on NMC battery pack costs in % Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Note: NMC chemistry modelled here is NMC (111); NMC battery pack cost is $223/kWh 11 September 06, 2017
What else could derail global EV sales? 12 September 06, 2017
Thank you! Colin McKerracher Cmckerracher@bloomberg.net sales.bnef@bloomberg.net 13 September 06, 2017
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