The German Solar Experience and Market Thomas Rudolph, Chairman Communications Working Group Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft e.v. (BSW-Solar)
Agenda 1. German Solar Association 2. German solar and storage market 3. Outlook: Growing market expected 4. Tenders: Overview of pilots, rules as of 2017 5. Tenant Solar: State of play
German Solar Association TASK VISION ACTIVITIES EXPERIENCE REPRESENTS HEADQUARTERS To represent the solar industry in Germany in the thermal and photovoltaic and storage sector A sustainable global energy supply provided by solar (renewable) energy Lobbying, political advice, public relations, market observation, standardization Active in the solar energy sector for over 30 years More than 800 solar producers, suppliers, wholesalers, installers and other companies active in the solar business from all over the world Berlin Equipment Materials System components Wholesale & Distribution Project Development Constructi on O&M
BSW-Solar: Working world wide to improve frameworks for the use of solar energy! Partnerships, business networks Projects, Market reports, esp. Enabling PV both
Agenda 1. German Solar Association 2. German solar and storage market 3. Outlook: Growing market expected 4. Tenders: Overview of pilots, rules as of 2017 5. Tenant Solar: State of play
6 Germany still leads the world in per capita installed solar power capacity, fluctuating energy in the grid TOP 10 Total installed per capita capacity Germany Japan Italy Belgium Greece Australia Czech Republic UK Europe USA Austria Spain France China 56 250 241 209 169 140 132 125 116 107 316 305 344 506 0,0 100,0 200,0 300,0 400,0 500,0 600,0 cumulative installed PV capacity end of 2016 in kwp/1,000 inhabitants * preliminary figures subject to change Source: BSW-Solar calculations, market information nat. solar associations, analyst reports
Photovoltaics in Germany: 41.2 GW capacity PV covers around 6.4 % of gross electricity consumption PV covers 5.9 percent of the total german energy production; this represents a share of 6.4 percent of gross electricity consumption* * background: gross electricity consumption = total energy production minus energy exports
8 PV Investments increase noticably Small on roof and commercial sector are growing
9 Around 40% of new PV systems combined with batteries Declining support rate did not impact growth Number of installed battery storage units/ approved funding applications 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 * 2016 preliminary Sources: KfW, BSW-Solar Installed storage systems (per year) KfW-funded storage systems (per year) 2013 2014 2015 2016* Share of new installed PV systems in combination with home storage systems ~20.000 new stationary battery storage systems (~52.000 batteries installed at the end of 2016) - every third battery is funded by the KfW (banking group) About 40% of the newly installed PV plants (up to 10 kwp) are installed in combination with a storage system 2017: > 25,000 newly installed stationary battery storage systems expected 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: BSW-Solar based on own calculations, as of 1/2017
10 Storage prices decline further Price index battery storage systems by technology - 10 kwh systems and 30 kwh systems 110,0 105,4 104,4 100,0 100,0 90,0 80,0 93,6 96,0 84,3 80,0 77,6 73,2 70,0 60,0 50,0 40,0 1st semester 2013 2nd semester 2013 Source: BSW-Solar, 10/2017 69,2 lithium storage systems (up to 30 kwh) lithium storage systems (up to 10 kwh) 1st semester 2014 2nd semester 2014 Prices for small lithium storage systems have fallen by more than 42 percent since 2013 Large scale systems (up to 30 kwh) more than 50 percent cheaper 72,4 1st semester 2015 Would you like to subscribe to the price index? Contact Marco Tepper for more information: tepper@bsw-solar.de / +49302977788-53 61,1 2nd semester 2015 65,2 61,9 53,0 1st semester 2016 2nd n=33 semester 2016 60,9 47,1 1st semester 2017 57,3 45,8 2nd semester 2017 Note: The price index for respective storage technology is calculated based on average storage unit price (up to 10 kwh).
Agenda 1. German Solar Association 2. German solar and storage market 3. Outlook: Growing market expected 4. Tenders: Overview of pilots, rules as of 2017 5. Tenant Solar: State of play
12 Optimistic business climate in PV sector High index levels in 2017 160 Business climate index "Photovoltaics" 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 129,3 120,6 115,9 109,3 104,5 96,1 132,6 127,7 132,2 124,2125,6 127,1 110,1 106,3 117,3 115,4 96,7 97,2 89,9 79,2 112,8 106,6 78,7 57,3 64,9 61,9 65,2 59,0 55,7 50,9 95,9 90,7 70,3 68,0 52,2 52,0 35,5 40,8 122,4 124,8 111,1 95,9 83,8 0 2005 2005 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 2016 2016 2017 2017 Business climate index moving average (6Q) Measurements since 2005; 2011 = 100 As of Q4/2011 BSW-Solar internal calculations, previously EuPD, Control sample: Companies from value chain stages production, commerce and installation Business climate index continues increase relative to previous years Jump by nearly 27 index points to an index level of 111 points (compared with 3/2016) Increase carried by situation index and expectation index; positive development through storage market and decreasing prices (storage/pv-systems)
13 Success factors, trends for the German Market Atractive Self Consumption New Business Models with Tennant Solar New Market Actors Real Estate Companies, Municipallities Sinking System Prices Falling Prices for Solar Batteries Trend towards E-Mobility
14 Solar Battery Market continues to grow Noticable increas expected in coming years Number of home storage systems 200.000 150.000 100.000 50.000 installations per year (BSW-Solar scenario) cumulative storage market (BSW-Solar scenario) 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017* 2018* 2019* 2020* * Growth scenario BSW-Solar; 2017 >25.000 home storage systems expected ** BSW-Solar scenario based on industy survey Aggregated installations Yearly installations Until autumn 2017 around 75.000 battery systems installed in residential buildings Installation of more than 25.000 new systems expected for 2017 Every other pv system in the residential sector will come with a solar battery
15 2017: Positive outlook, but government targets missed Increasing installations expected (up to +30 percent) Newly installed capacity in MW 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 Government targets 1000 500 0 2014 2015 2016 2017* * Expected installation in 2017: 1.600 up to 1.800 MWp Source: BNetzA, BSW-Solar 9/2017 2016 =1,53 GWp installed vs.1,46 GWp in 2015 Growing installed capacity in the commercial sector Government target (2,500 MW) will still not be reached
16 Agenda 1. German Solar Association 2. German solar and storage market 3. Outlook: Growing market expected 4. Tenders: Overview of pilots, rules as of 2017 5. Tenant Solar: State of play
17 Pilot tender phase in Germany (finished) Tenders for ground-mounted systems the first six tender rounds High demand: All rounds were oversubscribed several fold. For a total of 910 MW, 679 bids with a volume of 3,108 MW were submitted. Volume of awarded bids is decreasing: From an average of 9.17 ct/kwh in the first round to 6.90 ct/kwh in the sixth round Areas: For the first time in 2016, ten projects on so-called underdeveloped agricultural areas have been permitted. Contracts were awarded in full in the first tender round of the year Increasing rate of completion: So far, around 60 systems with 304 MWp have become operational (of 171 awarded contracts) Rates of realization: First round reached 94 percent, high quotas expected Oversubscription shows high demand and potential, larger tender volumes needed
18 Pilot tenders: High rates of realization to be expected Expected quotas: 90 percent and up; 1 st round 99 percent
19 Tenders in the EEG 2017 these rules apply now Applied from: January 1st 2017 Three auction rounds: February 1st, June 1st and October 1st Volume of auctions: 600MW (200MW in each round) All systems over 750kWp are now involved Including roof-top, disposal sites, industrial sites, sealed surfaces, periphery of traffic areas (110 meters), conversion areas and less favored agricultural area (limited to 10 tender projects per year) Additionally, the federal states are able to open further auctions for less favored agricultural and grass areas by granting a state land access provision Auction mode: pay-as-bid Duration of payment: 20 years (without adding on the year of system installation) Weighted average auction price 1 st auction round 2017: 6,58 Cent/kWh 2 nd auction round 2017: 5,66 Cent/kWh 3 rd auction round 2017: 4,91 Cent/kWh
20 1. German Solar Association 2. German solar and storage market 3. Outlook: Growing market expected 4. Tenders: Overview of pilots, rules as of 2017 5. Tenant Solar: State of play
21 Federal Ministry for Energy drafts Tenant supply act Market potential of the neighbor supply model considerable Potential users of the neighbor supply model are: Private tenants in multi-family houses Real Estate Companies Commercial tenants Number of multi-family houses: approximately 21 million apartments; About 3 to 4 million of these (up to 20 percent) are eligible for the supply model (estimation by BSW-Solar) If the potential is fully exploited, consumption of approx. 3 to 4 TWh. Participating households can usually cover 25 up to 35 percent of their own electricity requirements via the PV system
22 BSW wants to open the market for tenant supply, an important, new, and profitable business field MARKET POTENTIAL POLITICAL FRAME in the three-digit megawatt area annually in the mid to long-term, around 3 5 TWh is currently markedly improving: German state (Länder) support program for tenant solar energy supply implemented in, among others, Hesse, Thuringia, North Rhineland-Westphalia and in Baden-Württemberg (coalition agreement). Inclusion of delegated legislation on tenant supply act in the EEG (Renewable Energy Sources Act) in 2017. Legal initiative for support of tenant supply with solar energy at a federal level, still expected in this legislative period FURTHER INFO www.sonne-teilen.de (among others, free guidelines)
23 Thank you for your attention Thomas Rudolph Speaker BSW-Solar Communications Working Group German Solar Association 24/01/2013 Source: Solarmarkt