Yusep K Caryana R & D Center for Oil and Gas Technology LEMIGAS, Indonesia

Yusep K Caryana R & D Center for Oil and Gas Technology LEMIGAS, Indonesia JPEC 6 TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPPINES, 29 31 JANUARY 2008

Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, 29 30 JANUARY 2008 BACKGROUND INDONESIAN ENERGY MIX 2005 GROWTH OF DOMESTIC FUEL CONSUMPTION : TRANSPORTATION POWER PLANT RESIDENTIAL THE INCREASE OF SUBSIDY ALLOCATION ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION PRESSURE

Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, 29 30 JANUARY 2008 PRESIDENTIAL DECREE NO. 5/2006 : ENERGY MIX 2025 Natural Gas, 30% Coal, 33% Liquid Petroleum Fuel, 20 % New & Renewable Energy Resources, 17% Biofuel, 5% Geothermal, 5% Nuclear, wind, hydro, fuel cell, 5 % Coal Liquefaction, 2%

Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, 29 30 JANUARY 2008 GROWTH OF DOMESTIC TRANSPORTATION FUEL CONSUMPTION INDONESIAN TRANSPORTATION FUEL BALANCE 1400 FUEL DEMAND, MBCD 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Diesel Demand Gasoline Demand Diesel Supply Gasoline Supply 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 Y E A R Source : MIGAS, Indonesian Master Plan of Refinery Study, 2003. ed with assumption 5 % GDP Solutions : New Refinery, Import & Fuel Conversion to Natural Gas and Bio Fuel

Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, 29 30 JANUARY 2008 Gas LPG CNG Coal Coal Coal Bed Methane Liquefied Coal Biofuel Geothermal Biomass Nuclear Hydro Sun Wind CBM Fuel Type Coal Briquette New & Renewable Energy ENERGY DIVERSIFICATION Residential and Commercial Transportation tion Industry Power Generation Hydrogen / Fuel Cell Oil Shale Biogenic Gas

Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, 29 30 JANUARY 2008 Effect of Natural Gas for Vehicular Fuel PM10 Emissions and Concentrations Year Emissions (tons/year) Annual Average Concentration (µg/m 3 ) No Proposed Potential CNG Demand No Proposed Potential CNG Demand 1 (2009) 8,540 8,540 8,540 77.8 77.8 77.8 2(2010) 9,350 9,350 9,350 85.2 85.2 85.2 3(2011) 9,680 9,680 9,680 88.2 88.2 88.2 4(2012) 9,990 9,660 9,170 91.0 88.0 83.6 5(2013) 10,230 9,880 9,420 93.2 90.0 85.8 6(2014) 10,500 10,100 9,870 95.6 92.0 89.9 7(2015) 10,760 10,320 10,140 98.0 94.0 92.4 8(2016) 11,120 10,690 10,420 101.3 97.4 94.9 9(2017) 11,390 10,950 10,710 103.7 99.7 97.6 10(2018) 11,650 11,210 10,990 106.1 102.1 100.1 11(2019) 11,930 11,480 11,280 108.7 104.6 102.8 12(2020) 12,180 11,750 11,570 111.0 107.1 105.4 13(2021) 12,540 12,090 11,850 114.2 110.2 108.0 14(2022) 12,800 12,350 12,140 116.6 112.5 110.6 15(2023) 13,060 12,600 12,420 118.9 114.8 113.2 16(2024) 13,310 12,860 12,710 121.3 117.1 115.8 17(2025) 13,570 13,110 12,990 123.6 119.4 118.4 18(2026) 13,830 13,360 13,280 126.0 121.8 121.0 19(2027) 14,080 13,620 13,560 128.3 124.1 123.6 Source : Clean Vehicle Fuel For Blue Skies Environmental Impact Assessment, ADB, 2005

Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, 29 30 JANUARY 2008 Effect of Natural Gas for Vehicular Fuel SO 2 Emissions and Concentrations Year Emissions (tons/year) Annual Average Concentration (µg/m 3 ) No Proposed Potential CNG Demand No Proposed Potential CNG Demand 1 (2009) 4,370 4,370 4,370 19.5 19.5 19.5 2(2010) 5,090 5,090 5,090 22.7 22.7 22.7 3(2011) 5,210 5,210 5,210 23.3 23.3 23.3 4(2012) 5,350 5,020 4,410 23.9 22.4 19.7 5(2013) 5,460 5,090 4,530 24.4 22.7 20.2 6(2014) 5,550 5,130 4,790 24.8 22.9 21.4 7(2015) 5,670 5,170 4,930 25.3 23.1 22.0 8(2016) 5,900 5,410 5,060 26.4 24.2 22.6 9(2017) 6,000 5,490 5,190 26.8 24.5 23.2 10(2018) 6,110 5,600 5,320 27.3 25.0 23.8 11(2019) 6,230 5,720 5,450 27.8 25.5 24.4 12(2020) 6,340 5,830 5,580 28.3 26.0 24.9 13(2021) 6,550 6,030 5,720 29.2 26.9 25.5 14(2022) 6,640 6,120 5,850 29.7 27.3 26.1 15(2023) 6,740 6,210 5,980 30.1 27.8 26.7 16(2024) 6,840 6,310 6,110 30.5 28.2 27.3 17(2025) 6,930 6,400 6,240 31.0 28.6 27.9 18(2026) 7,030 6,490 6,370 31.4 29.0 28.5 19(2027) 7,120 6,590 6,500 31.8 29.4 29.1 Source : Clean Vehicle Fuel For Blue Skies Environmental Impact Assessment, ADB, 2005

Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, 29 30 JANUARY 2008 Effect of Natural Gas for Vehicular Fuel CO Emissions and Concentrations Year Emissions (tons/year) Annual Average Concentration (mg/m 3 ) No Proposed Potential CNG Demand No Proposed Potential CNG Demand 1 (2009) 1,374,000 1,374,000 1,374,000 1.57 1.57 1.57 2(2010) 1,428,000 1,428,000 1,428,000 1.64 1.64 1.64 3(2011) 1,507,000 1,507,000 1,507,000 1.73 1.73 1.73 4(2012) 1,578,000 1,576,000 1,540,000 1.81 1.80 1.76 5(2013) 1,642,000 1,635,000 1,603,000 1.88 1.87 1.84 6(2014) 1,689,000 1,678,000 1,650,000 1.93 1.92 1.89 7(2015) 1,756,000 1,742,000 1,717,000 2.01 2.00 1.97 8(2016) 1,814,000 1,808,000 1,785,000 2.08 2.07 2.04 9(2017) 1,895,000 1,878,000 1,855,000 2.17 2.15 2.12 10(2018) 1,963,000 1,945,000 1,923,000 2.25 2.23 2.20 11(2019) 2,032,000 2,014,000 1,992,000 2.33 2.31 2.28 12(2020) 2,100,000 2,083,000 2,060,000 2.41 2,39 2.36 13(2021) 2,170,000 2,152,000 2,129,000 2.49 2.47 2.44 14(2022) 2,239,000 2,221,000 2,198,000 2.56 2.54 2.52 15(2023) 2,307,000 2,290,000 2,266,000 2.64 2.62 2.60 16(2024) 2,376,000 2,358,000 2,334,000 2.72 2.70 2.67 17(2025) 2,445,000 2,427,000 2,403,000 2.80 2.78 2.75 18(2026) 2,513,000 2,496,000 2,471,000 2.88 2.86 2.83 19(2027) 2,581,000 2,564,000 2,539,000 2.96 2.94 2.91 Source : Clean Vehicle Fuel For Blue Skies Environmental Impact Assessment, ADB, 2005

Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, 29 30 JANUARY 2008 Effect of Natural Gas for Vehicular Fuel NOx Emissions and Concentrations Year Emissions (tons/year) Annual Average Concentration (µg/m 3 ) No Proposed Potential CNG Demand No Proposed Potential CNG Demand 1 (2009) 47,390 47,390 47,390 67.6 67.6 67.6 2(2010) 51,220 51,220 51,220 73.1 73.1 73.1 3(2011) 53,500 53,500 53,500 76.3 76.3 76.3 4(2012) 55,880 55,050 54,760 79.7 78.5 78.1 5(2013) 57,990 57,160 56,900 82.7 81.6 81.2 6(2014) 59,710 58,790 58,740 85.2 83.9 83.8 7(2015) 61,880 60,910 60,950 88.3 86.9 87.0 8(2016) 64,780 64,340 63,180 92.4 91.8 90.1 9(2017) 67,160 66,270 66,080 95.8 94.6 94.3 10(2018) 69,330 68,420 68,300 98.9 97.6 97.4 11(2019) 71,520 70,600 70,540 102.0 100.7 100.6 12(2020) 73,640 72,780 72,770 105.1 103.8 103.8 13(2021) 76,660 75,740 75,570 109.4 108.1 107.8 14(2022) 78,670 77,730 77,670 112.2 110.9 110.8 15(2023) 80,670 79,730 79,770 115.1 113.8 113.8 16(2024) 82,660 81,710 81,860 117.9 116.6 116.8 17(2025) 84,660 83,700 83,960 120.8 119.4 119.8 18(2026) 86,650 85,690 86,050 123.6 122.3 122.8 19(2027) 88,650 87,670 88,140 126.5 125.1 125.7 Source : Clean Vehicle Fuel For Blue Skies Environmental Impact Assessment, ADB, 2005

Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, 29 30 JANUARY 2008 Source : Bio Fuel Indonesia National Team, 2006

Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, 29 30 JANUARY 2008 GROWTH OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND Y e a r Source : Preparing a Gas Sector Development Plan, ADB, 2003

Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, 29 30 JANUARY 2008 GROWTH OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND Source : Preparing a Gas Sector Development Plan, ADB, 2003 Y e a r

Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, 29 30 JANUARY 2008 12.000.000 10.000.000 8.000.000 RESIDENTIAL KEROSINE SUBSTITUTION LPG Volume Biofuel Volume Coal Briquette Volume City Gas Volume (Senji) KL 6.000.000 4.000.000 City Gas Volume (pipeline) Substituted Kerosine Volume Kerosine Volume (BAU) 2.000.000-2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source : Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources, Indonesia, 2007

Yusep K Caryana, Lemigas - Roadmap To Clean Fuel Utilization In Indonesia - JPEC 6TH ASIAN PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM CEBU, PHILIPHINES, 29 30 JANUARY 2008 CONCLUSIONS : IF THERE IS NO REFINERY INVESTOR, CLEAN FUEL CONVERSION WOULD BE SELECTED NATURAL GAS BASED FUEL UTILIZATION WOULD LEAD TO EMISSION REDUCTION IT IS PROPOSED TO ESTABLISH A CLEAN FUEL BALANCE IN ACCORDANCE WITH INDONESIAN ENERGY MIX 2025