Hybrid and Electric Buses and Taxis 2013-2023: Forecasts, Opportunities, Players With suppliers, manufacturers and technology appraisal Dr Peter Harrop IDTechEx www.idtechex.com
Contents Page 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 1 1.1. Definitions 1 1.2. Manufacturing buses and taxis 2 1.3. Hybrids are key for now 3 1.4. Advantages of electric buses 9 1.5. Basis for forecasting global bus sales by region 15 1.6. Demand and production in China 17 1.7. Adoption of electric buses vs electric cars 18 1.8. Taxis 25 1.9. Electric bus design is ahead of cars 36 1.10. Radically different bus powertrains 39 1.11. ABB intermittent overhead charging 41 1.12. Bus statistics 47 1.12.1. e-bus and bus backup information 47 1.12.2. Preference for hybrid 47 1.12.3. Total bus sales 48 1.12.4. Production and Sales of China Light Bus Market in November 2013 49 1.12.5. Production and Sales of China Medium Bus Market in November 2013 50 1.12.6. Production and Sales of China Large Bus Market in November 2013 51 2. INTRODUCTION 53 2.1. Electric vehicles in general 53 2.2. Advantages of electric buses 54 2.3. Highlights 2011-2021 57 2.4. Definitions and trends 57 2.5. Modest success of electric microbuses 59 2.6. Convergence of hybrid and pure electric buses. 67 2.7. Convergence of trolley buses and free running electric buses 68 2.8. CNG Preferred for Los Angeles Buses 76 3. ELECTRIC BUS MANUFACTURERS AND TECHNOLOGIES 77 3.1. History of electric buses 77 3.2. Main components of hybrid bus power trains 97 3.3. Superbus 108 3.4. Fuel cells rescued by batteries 109 3.5. OLEV technology for Korean buses in 2013 113 3.6. New pure electric school bus in USA 114
4. PROFILES OF SOME INTERESTING SUPPLIERS 115 4.1. Alexander Dennis UK 115 4.2. Anhui Ankai Automobile Company China 116 4.3. BredaMenarinibus Vivacity Italy 118 4.4. BYD China 118 4.5. Daimler Germany 119 4.6. Hino Motors and parent company, Toyota Japan 122 4.7. IVECO Italy 123 4.8. ISE Corp, USA 124 4.9. MAN hybrid bus Germany: supercapacitor not battery 125 4.10. Navistar USA 126 4.11. New Flyer Industries Canada 126 4.12. Nova Bus Canada 127 4.13. Optare UK 128 4.14. Proterra 129 4.15. Ryobi Bus Japan 130 4.16. TATA India 130 4.17. Volvo Sweden 132 4.18. Wrightbus UK 134 4.19. Yutong Group 134 4.20. Zhongtong Bus Holding Co., Ltd, China 137 5. BUS DRIVE TRAINS 139 5.1. Adura Systems USA 139 5.2. Allison Transmission USA 140 5.3. Azure Dynamics USA 143 5.4. BAE Systems UK, USA 143 5.5. BLK China 145 5.6. Eaton USA 146 5.7. ISE Corporation 146 5.8. SIM Drive Corporation Japan 147 5.9. SR Drives UK, Green Propulsion Belgium 148 5.10. ThunderVolt USA 150 6. ELECTRIC TAXI MANUFACTURERS AND TECHNOLOGIES 151 6.1. Electric taxi projects in US, UK, Europe, China, Japan and Mexico 152 6.1.1. China 152 6.1.2. Mexico 155 6.1.3. USA 159 6.2. Mitsubishi taxi rollout in Japan 159 6.2.1. Mitsubishi MiEV taxi 160 6.3. Beijing China 161 6.4. Changsha China 161
6.5. Changping District in Beijing China 161 6.6. Dalian China 162 6.7. Langfeng, Hebei China 162 6.8. Huge order in the Philippines in 2013 162 6.9. Range-extended electric London cabs to be trialled in 2014 165 7. TRACTION BATTERIES, FUEL CELLS, RANGE EXTENDERS 169 7.1. Traction batteries 169 7.2. Who is winning in traction batteries and why 171 7.2.1. The needs have radically changed 171 7.2.2. It started with cobalt 176 7.2.3. Great variety of recipes 176 7.2.4. Other factors 177 7.2.5. Check with reality 177 7.2.6. Lithium winners today and soon 177 7.2.7. Reasons for winning 178 7.2.8. Lithium polymer electrolyte now important 178 7.2.9. Winning chemistry 179 7.2.10. Titanate establishes a place 179 7.2.11. Laminar structure 180 7.2.12. Niche winners 180 7.2.13. Fluid situation 180 8. FUEL CELLS 187 8.1. Trials of fuel cell powered vehicles 187 8.2. Fuel cell 2000 summary of fuel cell bus trials to 2010 191 8.3. Range extenders 199 8.4. US DOE Grant Sept 2013 199 9. MARKET STATISTICS AND FORECASTS 201 9.1. Past trends 201 9.1.1. Commercial vehicles 201 9.2. Buses historical trends 202 9.3. School buses North America 205 9.4. Past trend in bus production by country 206 9.5. US population of buses by type 207 9.6. Transport modes in India 209 9.7. Motor vehicle production by leading producers 209 9.8. Global electric bus deliveries to start of 2011 214 9.9. Forecasts to 2023 214 9.9.1. Global demand for electric buses and taxis 214 9.9.2. Manufacturing buses and taxis 214
9.10. Technology future 215 9.10.1. Hybrids are key for now 215 9.11. Future leading manufacturers 217 9.11.1. Today s leading electric bus manufacturer 217 9.11.2. Future leading user nation 217 9.11.3. Buses and taxis a good launch pad for new technologies 218 9.11.4. Global conventional and electric bus demand 2010-2021 218 9.11.5. Advantages of electric buses 221 9.12. Decade of the hybrid 222 9.13. Liberty Electric Cars 227 9.14. Basis for forecasting global bus sales by region 229 9.15. Conventional and electric bus demand and production in China 230 9.16. Adoption of electric buses vs electric cars 231 9.17. Global electric vehicle manufacturers by application 232 9.18. Chinese manufacturers of electric vehicles by application 233 9.18.1. Taxis 237 9.19. Adoption of green taxis 245 9.20. Electric vehicles in East Asia 248 9.21. Total change 249 APPENDIX 1: IDTECHEX PUBLICATIONS AND CONSULTANCY 253 APPENDIX 2: INTRODUCTION TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES 271