April 25 2012 Consumers' willingness to pay for alternative fuel vehicle: comparative analysis between US and Japan Takanori Ida, Kyoto University, Japan Kayo Murakami, Tokyo City University, Japan Makoto Tanaka, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, Japan Lee Friedman, University of California Berkeley, USA
I. Analysis between USA and Japan
Demographics
Survey was conducted via on-line in February of 2012.
Questionnaires
An eco-car is a vehicle that improves fuel economy by using electricity and electric motor power, unlike conventional gasoline-powered vehicles. Fuel economy (The cost for the same distance) The cost for gas and electricity Mileage (Per one charging or fueling) Greenhouse gas emissions Fuel availability Electric Vehicle(EV) Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle(PHEV) EV PHEV Reduced by about 20 to 80 percent Approximately 200 to 1500 km Reduced by about 20 to 80 percent Charging at home Rechargeable at home outlet. Requires overnight or about 8 hours for sufficient charge. Run by a battery and a electric motor with a great fuel economy. Charge needed. Utilizes both power of electric motor and gasoline engine with improved fuel economy. Both fueling and charging is possible with a plug-in function. The price is about 300,000 to 1 million yen higher than the same type of gasoline car (2 million yen) EV only needs charging and PHEV needs charging and fueling Fast charging 80 percent charge in 30 minutes at gas stations with fast charging equipment. Gas station In addition to charging, Fueling is possible at conventional gas stations. The same type of gasoline vehicle and the conventional hybrid vehicle Vehicles run by gasoline engine. The hybrid vehicle uses both a electric motor and a gasoline engine, but cannot be charged since it has no plug-in function. The price is about 2 million yen. Cost per 1 liter of gas 120 to 150 yen per 20 km 700 1000km Reduced about 0 50 percent Fueling Gas station Fueling at gas stations as before.
Conjoint Econometrics
Estimation Results US respondents (all) Coeff. Std.Err. WTP($) <fixed parameter> Purchace Price (US$) -0.0003 0.0000 Constant_No_car -5.1409 0.1200 <mean of random parameter> Fuel cost (% off compared with gasoline vehicles) 0.0037 0.0009 14.04 Range (miles) 0.0015 0.0000 5.85 Emission reduction (% reduction) 0.0163 0.0009 62.69 Fuel station availability (X out of 10 stations have alternative fuel) Home plug-in construction fee (US$1000) 0.0072 0.0006 27.50-0.0065 0.0003-25.16 <s.d. of random parameter> Fuel cost 0.0327 0.0011 Range 0.0016 0.0000 Emission reduction 0.0321 0.0009 Fuel station availability 0.0266 0.0005 Home plug-in construction fee 0.0083 0.0004 Japanese respondents Coeff. Std.Err. WTP(US$) <fixed parameter> Purchase Price (US$) -0.0002 0.0000 Constant_No_car -6.1664 0.13581 <mean of random parameter> Fuel cost (% off compared with gasoline vehicles) 0.0018 0.0011 7.51 Range (miles) 0.0029 0.0001 11.70 Emission reduction (% reduction) Fuel station availability (X out of 10 stations have alternative fuel) Home plug-in construction fee (US$1000) 0.0212 0.0010 86.37 0.0033 0.0007 13.31-0.0049 0.0003-20.02 <s.d. of random parameter> Fuel cost 0.0399 0.0012 Range 0.0042 0.0001 Emission reduction 0.0306 0.0010 Fuel station availability 0.0288 0.0006 Home plug-in construction fee 0.0047 0.0006 Number of obs. 33616 McFadden Pseudo R-squared 0.3301 Log likelihood function -31218.942 Number of obs. 32000 McFadden Pseudo R-squared 0.3849643 Log likelihood function -27283.86
WTP Values for Conjoint Characteristics WTP%for%alterna;ve%fuel%vehicle% US%% Japan% US$%($1= 80) 100.0%% 80.0%% 60.0%% 40.0%% 20.0%% 0.0%% C20.0%% C40.0%% Fuel%cost%% (%%off%compared%with% gasoline%vehicles)% Range%% (miles)% Emission%reduc;on%% (%%reduc;on)% Fuel%sta;on% availability%% (X%out%of%10%sta;ons% have%alterna;ve%fuel)% Home%plugCin% construc;on%fee%% (US$100)% US%% 13.9%% 5.8%% 61.7%% 27.1%% C24.8%% Japan% 7.5% 11.7% 86.4% 13.3% C20.0%
Choice Probability Elasticity (Japan) Choice)Probability)elas;city)with)conjoint)characteris;cs)(Japan) EV) PHEV) Gasoline)Car) 2) 1) 0) A1) A2) A3) A4) Purchase)Price)(US$)) Fuel)cost)(%)) Range)(miles)) Japan) Emission)reduc;on) (%)) Fuel)sta;on) availability) Home)plugAin) construc;on)fee)) EV) A3.285) 0.5622) 0.1499) 1.2133) 0.053) A0.1025) PHEV) A2.8601) 0.1421) 1.2183) 0.6334) 0.047) A0.0856) Gasoline)Car) A2.1245) A0.0176) 0.5449) 0.0829) 0.3441) 0)
Choice Probability Elasticity (USA) Choice)Probability)elas;city)with)conjoint)characteris;cs)(USA) EV) PHEV) Gasoline)Car) 2) 1) 0) A1) A2) A3) A4) Purchase)Price)(US$)) Fuel)cost)(%)) Range)(miles)) USA) Emission)reduc;on) (%)) Fuel)sta;on) availability) Home)plugAin) construc;on)fee)) EV) A3.1952) 0.5705) 0.1835) 1.2971) 0.1188) A0.1185) PHEV) A2.9882) 0.2032) 1.1060) 0.6973) 0.1110) A0.1054) Gasoline)Car) A1.7914) 0.0013) 0.4408) 0.0572) 0.3535) 0)
Scenario Analysis Scenario 1 (Realistic) Scenario 2 (Modest innovation) Scenario 3 (Radical innovation) EV PHEV Gas Car No Car EV PHEV Gas Car No Car EV PHEV Gas Car No Car Purchase Price (US$) 30000 30000 20000 0 25000 25000 20000 0 23000 23000 20000 0 Constant_No_car 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 Fuel cost (% off compared with gasoline vehicles) 60 40 10 0 70 50 10 0 80 60 10 0 Range (miles) 200 1200 800 0 300 1300 800 0 400 1400 800 0 Emission reduction (% reduction) 80 60 10 0 90 70 10 0 100 80 10 0 Fuel station availability (X out of 10 stations have alternative fuel) 30 30 100 0 50 50 100 0 70 70 100 0 Home plug-in construction fee (US$100) 10 10 0 0 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
Choice Probability Simulation 1 Scenario 1 (Realistic) EV PHEV Gas Car No Car Japan USA 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% USA Japan EV 2.8% 2.5% PHEV 8.5% 27.7% Gas Car 78.8% 68.7% No Car 9.9% 1.1%
Choice Probability Simulation 2 Scenario 2 (Modest innovation) EV PHEV Gas Car No Car Japan USA 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% USA Japan EV 12.7% 6.4% PHEV 38.9% 70.7% Gas Car 43.0% 22.6% No Car 5.4% 0.4%
Choice Probability Simulation 3 Scenario 3 (Radical innovation) EV PHEV Gas Car No Car Japan USA 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% USA Japan EV 19.7% 7.7% PHEV 60.6% 84.9% Gas Car 17.5% 7.3% No Car 2.2% 0.1%
II. Analysis across US four states
Demographics
Questionnaires
Conjoint Econometrics
Estimation Results US respondents (all) California Texas Michigan New York Coeff. Std.Err. WTP($) Coeff. Std.Err. WTP($) Coeff. Std.Err. WTP($) Coeff. Std.Err. WTP($) Coeff. <fixed parameter> Purchace Price (US$) -0.0003 0.0000-0.0003 0.0000-0.0003 0.0001-0.0003 0.0000-0.0003 0.0000 Constant_No_car -5.1409 0.1200-4.7112 0.2295-5.2604 0.2448-5.6556 0.2455-5.1409 0.1200 <mean of random parameter> Fuel cost (% off compared with gasoline vehicles) 0.0037 0.0009 14.04 0.0099 0.0018 39.40 0.0015 0.0020 5.52-0.0017 0.0019-5.97 0.0037 0.0009 14.04 Range (miles) 0.0015 0.0000 5.85 0.0015 0.0001 6.16 0.0016 0.0008 5.78 0.0017 0.0001 5.90 0.0015 0.0000 5.85 Std.Err. WTP($) Emission reduction (% reduction) 0.0163 0.0009 62.69 0.0166 0.0017 66.40 0.0158 0.0018 58.59 0.0199 0.0017 68.59 0.0163 0.0009 62.69 Fuel station availability (X out of 10 stations have alternative fuel) Home plug-in construction fee (US $100) <s.d. of random parameter> 0.0072 0.0006 27.50 0.0054 0.0012 21.48 0.0088 0.0013 32.74 0.0075 0.0013 25.76 0.0072 0.0006 27.50-0.0065 0.0003-25.16-0.0055 0.0006-21.88-0.0066 0.0006-24.36-0.0077 0.0006-26.39-0.0065 0.0003-25.16 Fuel cost 0.0327 0.0011 0.0277 0.0018 0.0358 0.0023 0.0390 0.0020 0.0327 0.0011 Range 0.0016 0.0000 0.0017 0.0001 0.0018 0.0001 0.0016 0.0001 0.0016 0.0000 Emission reduction 0.0321 0.0009 0.0315 0.0014 0.0329 0.0021 0.0270 0.0016 0.0321 0.0009 Fuel station availability 0.0266 0.0005 0.0235 0.0010 0.0276 0.0011 0.0290 0.0011 0.0266 0.0005 Home plug-in construction fee 0.0083 0.0004 0.0073 0.0009 0.0080 0.0009 0.0084 0.0010 0.0083 0.0004 Number of obs. 33616 8176 8712 8560 8168 McFadden Pseudo R- squared Log likelihood function -31218.94 2 0.3301 0.3066 0.3463 0.3487 0.3301-7858.795 05-7895.573 36-7728.603 67-31218.94 196
WTP Values for Conjoint Characteristics WTP%for%alterna;ve%fuel%vehicle% California% Texas% Michigan% New%York% 80.0%% US$%($1= 80) 60.0%% 40.0%% 20.0%% 0.0%% C20.0%% C40.0%% Fuel%cost%% (%%off%compared%with% gasoline%vehicles)% Range%% (miles)% Emission%reduc;on%% (%%reduc;on)% Fuel%sta;on% availability%% (X%out%of%10%sta;ons% have%alterna;ve%fuel)% Home%plugCin% construc;on%fee%% (US$100)% California% 39.4% 6.2% 66.4% 21.5% C21.9% Texas% 5.5% 5.8% 58.6% 32.7% C24.4% Michigan% C6.0% 5.9% 68.6% 25.8% C26.4% New%York% 14.0% 5.8% 62.7% 27.5% C25.2%
USA California Texas Choice Probability Elasticity Purchase Price (US$) Fuel cost (%) Range (miles) Emission reduction (%) Fuel station availability Home plug-in construction fee EV -3.1952 0.5705 0.1835 1.2971 0.1188-0.1185 PHEV -2.9882 0.2032 1.106 0.6973 0.111-0.1054 Gasoline Car -1.7914 0.0013 0.4408 0.0572 0.3535 0 Purchase Price (US$) Fuel cost (%) Range (miles) Emission reduction (%) Fuel station availability Home plug-in construction fee EV -2.9594 0.6212 0.1843 1.2266 0.094-0.103 PHEV -2.7083 0.275 1.0626 0.6401 0.091-0.092 Gasoline Car -1.9212 0.0351 0.513 0.0565 0.3751 0 Purchase Price (US$) Fuel cost (%) Range (miles) Emission reduction (%) Fuel station availability EV -3.2046 0.5846 0.1792 1.2918 0.1431-0.1223 PHEV -3.008 0.1825 1.1533 0.6986 0.1315-0.1085 Gasoline Car -1.7234-0.0094 0.4255 0.0546 0.3626 0 Michigan Purchase Price (US$) Fuel cost (%) Range (miles) Emission reduction (%) Fuel station availability EV -3.6395 0.6597 0.2157 1.3578 0.1246-0.149 PHEV -3.2482 0.1493 1.1959 0.7396 0.1064-0.1288 Gasoline Car -1.8265-0.0255 0.4588 0.081 0.3416 New York Purchase Price (US$) Fuel cost (%) Range (miles) Emission reduction (%) Fuel station availability EV -3.1952 0.5705 0.1835 1.2971 0.1188-0.1185 PHEV -2.9882 0.2032 1.106 0.6973 0.111-0.1054 Gasoline Car -1.7914 0.0013 0.4408 0.0572 0.3535 0
Scenario Analysis Scenario 1 (Realistic) Scenario 2 (Modest innovation) Scenario 3 (Radical innovation) EV PHEV Gas Car No Car EV PHEV Gas Car No Car EV PHEV Gas Car No Car Purchase Price (US$) 30000 30000 20000 0 25000 25000 20000 0 23000 23000 20000 0 Constant_No_car 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 Fuel cost (% off compared with gasoline vehicles) 60 40 10 0 70 50 10 0 80 60 10 0 Range (miles) 200 1200 800 0 300 1300 800 0 400 1400 800 0 Emission reduction (% reduction) 80 60 10 0 90 70 10 0 100 80 10 0 Fuel station availability (X out of 10 stations have alternative fuel) 30 30 100 0 50 50 100 0 70 70 100 0 Home plug-in construction fee (US$100) 10 10 0 0 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
Choice Probability Simulation 1 Scenario 1 (Realistic) EV PHEV Gas Car No Car NY MIC TEX CAL 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% CAL TEX MIC NY EV 4.7% 2.0% 1.7% 2.8% PHEV 13.0% 6.6% 6.4% 8.5% Gas Car 70.0% 82.0% 82.4% 78.8% No Car 12.2% 9.4% 9.6% 9.9%
Choice Probability Simulation 2 Scenario 2 (Modest innovation) EV PHEV Gas Car No Car NY MIC TEX CAL 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% CAL TEX MIC NY EV 16.7% 10.4% 9.8% 12.7% PHEV 45.9% 35.1% 37.6% 38.9% Gas Car 31.8% 48.9% 47.2% 43.0% No Car 5.6% 5.6% 5.5% 5.4%
Choice Probability Simulation 3 Scenario 3 (Radical innovation) EV PHEV Gas Car No Car NY MIC TEX CAL 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% CAL TEX MIC NY EV 22.9% 17.6% 16.4% 19.7% PHEV 63.1% 59.2% 63.1% 60.6% Gas Car 11.9% 20.9% 18.3% 17.5% No Car 2.1% 2.4% 2.1% 2.2%