RVI G R O U P Our Experience is Your Assurance RVI RISK OUTLOOK Quarterly Analysis of Key Issues and Trends in Consumer Leasing September 2017 Forecast at a Glance Key economic indicators signal that the US economy is growing. In the second quarter of 2017, GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.0%, up from 1.2% in the first quarter of 2017. The expansion was caused by an increase in personal consumption expenditures and nonresidential fixed investment that offset negative contributions coming from residential fixed investment, state spending and local government spending. In August, the U.S. unemployment rate came in at 4.4%, a slight increase from 4.3% the previous month, while the labor participation rate was unchanged from July to August. Inflation came in at 1.9% for August, up from 1.7% in July. Light vehicle sales declined to 16.0 million SAAR in August. On a year-over-year basis, light vehicle sales declined by 5.2% in August. The lease penetration rate for the second quarter of 2017 came in at 22.9% of total sales, lower by 0.4% than the second quarter of 2016. Market level incentive activity has continued to grow, increasing to 10.2% of MSRP in August from 9.9% of MSRP in July. In August, the new vehicle CPI decreased by 0.7% on a year-over-year basis but was unchanged from July to August. Real used vehicle prices (seasonally adjusted; 2-5-year-old vehicles) continue to decline on a yearover-year basis. Real used vehicle prices (after adjusting for MSRP) fell by 2.6% in August 2017 when compared to August 2016. Month-over-month real used vehicle prices increased by 0.2%. On a monthover-month basis, about half of the segments saw small gains in used car prices. The increasing supply of used vehicles and steady growth of incentive activity will continue to put downward pressure on used car prices. Even though lease penetration has declined from levels reached in 2016, we expect it to remain near record highs. As the increased supply of off-leased vehicles re-enter the market, we expect to see further declines in used car prices. Used vehicle prices are expected to decline 9.4% from current levels by 2020. Real used vehicle prices in Canada increased in August on a year-over-year basis. In August, the exchange rate was $0.79 USD/CAD, unchanged from July 2017. Canadian GDP grew in the second quarter of 2017 at an annual rate of 4.5%, up from the 3.7% achieved in the first quarter of 2017. New vehicle sales increased, with 2.0 million units (SAAR) sold in the month of July 2017. Real used car prices declined 1.7% in August from July, but are up 0.8% compared to the same time last year. We expect that a stronger Canadian Dollar, along with the growing supply of off-lease vehicles in North America, will continue to put downward pressure on used car prices which are expected to decline by 7.5% from current levels by 2020. Contacts: Rene Abdalah Wayne Westring Josiah Cimino (203) 975-2147 (203) 975-2150 (203) 975-2139 rabdalah@rvigroup.com wwestring@rvigroup.com jcimino@rvigroup.com RVI Group, 201 Broad Street, Sixth Floor, Stamford, CT 06901-2048 www.rvigroup.com US: C O N T E N T S U.S. Economy 2 New Vehicle Market 3 Residual Outlook 4-6 Canadian Outlook 7-9 UPCOMING EVENTS ACVL Conference New Orleans, LA Oct. 8 th -10 th IMPA Test Days Monticello, NY Oct. 17 th -18 th Auto Finance Summit Las Vegas, NY Oct. 25 th -27 th National Remarketing Conference La Quinta, CA Nov. 13 th -17 th LA Auto Show Los Angeles, CA Nov. 28 th -30 th CANADA: 2017 TalkAUTO Toronto, Canada Nov. 8 th September 2017
US Economy Chart 1 GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.0% in the 2 nd quarter of 2017, higher than the 1 st quarter of 2017. % Change fromprevious period 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% GDP Growth Chart 2 The unemployment rate in August was 4.4%, slightly higher than July 2017. However, the labor force participation rate was unchanged from July to August. 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 Unemployment Rate (SA) and Labor Force Participation Rate (SA) Unemployment Rate Participation Rate (Right Axis) 68.0 67.0 66.0 65.0 64.0 63.0 62.0 61.0 60.0 Chart 3 On a year-over-year basis, overall CPI increased by 1.9% in August 2017. % Change fromyear earlier 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% Consumer Price Index (not seasonally adjusted) - All Items Chart 4 Consumer sentiment increased to 96.8 in August from 93.4 in July 2017. In August 2016, the index was at 89.8. 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 U. of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment Chart 5 Gas prices increased to $2.49/gallon in August from $2.42/ gallon in July 2017. U.S. economic growth expanded during 2017 Q2. Increases in consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment were among the major drivers for the gains. The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in August from 4.3% in July. Job gains took place in construction, manufacturing, health care, mining, and professional technical services. Gas prices increased by 2.9% from July to August primarily due to the shutdown of platforms and rigs during Hurricane Harvey. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis Bureau of Labor Statistics US Department of Energy University of Michigan $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $ $0.50 U.S. Gas Prices (All Grades & Formulations) September 2017 2
New Vehicle Market Chart 6 Light vehicle sales were 16.0 million units (SAAR) in August, a 3.9% drop from July 2017 and the lowest levels in 3 years. Millions ofunits 20.0 19.0 18.0 17.0 16.0 15.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR) Chart 8 In August, the CPI for new vehicles was unchanged from July 2017. Index (Jan 2001 = 1.0) 1.06 1.04 1.02 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.92 Consumer Price Index (seasonally adjusted)- New Vehicles Chart 7 New vehicle prices in August decreased by 0.7% when compared to August 2016. % Change fromyear earlier 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% Consumer Price Index (not seasonal adjusted)- New Vehicles Chart 9 In August, incentives were 10.2% of MSRP, up from 9.4% in August 2016. Incentive s % MSRP 12.00 1 10.00 9.00 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 Total Incentives (% of MSRP) On average, light vehicle sales continue to be below 2016 levels. New vehicle prices decreased slightly on a year-over-year basis. At the same time, incentive activity continues to grow. In August, incentives reached an average of 10.2% of MSRP, up from 9.5% in August 2016. Sources: Federal Reserve Economic Database Bureau of Labor Statistics Autodata Chart 10 We expect incentive activity to continue growing in the U.S. over the next four years. Our annual average forecast shows market level incentives surpassing 10.3% by 2020. Incentives % MSRP 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 Market Level Incentives % MSRP September 2017 3
Residual Outlook The lease penetration rate for 2017 Q2 was 22.9% of total sales. We expect the lease penetration to remain near record highs over the next two years. In August, our lease supply index rose 17.8% when compared to August 2016. Given the high leasing rates over the past 2 years, we expect off-lease supply to continue growing through 2020. Real used vehicle prices increased by 0.2% in August when compared to July 2017. When comparing to August 2016, prices fell by 2.6%. We expect used vehicle prices to continue to soften through 2020. Chart 11 In 2017 Q2, the lease penetration rate was 22.9%. In 2016 Q2 the rate was at 23.3%. Lease Penetration 25% 23% 21% 19% 17% 15% 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% US Lease Penetration Rate (% of Total Sales) Chart 12 In 2017 Q2, most brands saw a decline in their lease penetration rate. Fiat and Volvo saw the largest increase while Audi and Volkswagen saw the largest decrease in lease penetration from 2016 to 2017. Change in Lease Penetration 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Change in Lease Penetration (% of TotalSales) - 2017 vs. 2016 Chart 13 In August, our lease supply index (a measure of off-lease volume in the market) showed an increase of 17.8% when compared to August of 2016. Index(Jan. 01=) 1.60 1.40 1.20 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 RVI Lease Supply Index RVI Analy tical Serv ices Chart 14 In August, real used vehicle prices increased by 0.2% when compared to July. Compared to August 2016, prices fell by 2.6%. Index(Jan2001=1.0) 1.30 1.20 1.10 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 RVI Used Car Price Index - Real RVI Analy tical Serv ices Table 1 By 2020, we expect used vehicle prices (real) to drop by 9.4% from today s levels. Aug-17 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Unemployment 4.4 4.4 4.1 4.0 4.4 4.9 4.9 Gas Prices $2.49 $2.43 $2.40 $2.45 $2.51 $2.57 $2.62 vs Previous Year 7.9% -1.3% 2.3% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% GDP Growth Rate (2017Q2) 2.6 2.4 2.6 1.9 1.4 2.2 2.5 New Vehicle Sales (SAAR 8/1/2017) 16.0 16.8 16.9 16.4 15.9 16.3 17.4 vs Previous Year -4.0% 0.5% -2.7% -2.8% 2.1% 6.7% RVI Used Vehicle Stock Index 0.923 0.918 0.992 1.051 1.080 1.061 0.989 vs Previous Year 6.5% 8.1% 5.9% 2.8% -1.8% -6.8% Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics Moody s Analytics Forecast Department of Energy Bureau of Economic Analysis Federal Reserve Economic Database RVI Analytical Services POLK Automotive Data Autodata RVI Lease Supply Index 1.123 1.102 1.264 1.482 1.510 1.456 1.328 vs Previous Year 20.2% 14.7% 17.2% 1.9% -3.6% -8.8% RVI Competitive Index 0.896 0.898 0.897 0.908 0.937 0.953 0.964 vs Previous Year -1.9% -0.2% 1.3% 3.2% 1.7% 1.1% Market Level Incentives 10.2% 9.8% 10.0% 10.2% 10.4% 10.4% 10.2% RVI UCPI - Real 1.024 1.011 0.989 0.935 0.928 0.962 1.012 vs Previous Year -4.2% -2.2% -5.4% -0.7% 3.6% 5.2% vs Current Levels -3.5% -8.7% -9.4% -6.1% -1.2% September 2017 4
1.2 1.1 5 1.1 1.0 5 1 0.9 5 0.9 0.8 5 0.8 0.7 5 0.7 RVI Risk Outlook Residual Outlook Luxury Small Sedans The supply of used Luxury Small Sedans has grown over the past two years. Looking forward, we expect the supply of used vehicles in this segment to decline in 2019 and 2020 relative to today s levels. Used Luxury Small Sedan prices on a year-over-year basis fell by 4.0% as of August 2017. Compared to a market level drop of 2.6%, this segment is among the worst performing segments. As consumers continue to favor SUVs over sedans, we expect real used vehicle prices for the Luxury Small Sedan segment to decline by 9.6% below current levels by 2020. Chart 15 In 2017 Q2, the lease penetration rate for Luxury Small Sedans increased to 55.8% from 54.8% in 2017 Q1. % of Total Sales 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% Lease Penetration Luxury Small Sedan Chart 16 By 2020, we expect the supply of used vehicles in the Luxury Small Sedan segment to decrease by 21.1% from today s levels. 1.60 1.40 1.20 0.80 0.60 0.40 RVI Used Vehicle Stock Index Luxury Small Sedan RVI Analytical Services Table 2 Roughly half of the segments saw small gains in used car values on a month-over-month basis in August. However, on a year-over-year basis most segments saw declines. RVI USED VEHICLE PRICE INDEX-REAL % Change from RVI_SEGMENT Aug-17 Jul-17 Aug-16 M-to-M Y-to-Y FULL-SIZE SEDAN 0.928 0.919 0.981 1.0% -5.4% SUB-COMPACT 1.245 1.233 1.305 1.0% -4.6% COMPACT 0.900 0.887 0.941 1.5% -4.3% LUXURY SMALL SEDAN 0.930 0.930 0.968-0.1% -4.0% SMALL SEDAN 0.955 0.949 0.995 0.7% -3.9% SPORTY COUPE 0.986 0.982 1.027 0.4% -3.9% LUXURY COUPE 1.050 1.047 1.088 0.2% -3.6% MID-SIZE SUV 1.176 1.180 1.217-0.4% -3.4% SMALL PICKUP 1.275 1.345 1.319-5.2% -3.3% LUXURY FULL-SIZE SEDAN 1.015 1.018 1.050-0.2% -3.3% MID-SIZE SEDAN 0.956 0.943 0.983 1.4% -2.8% LUXURY SUV 1.063 1.065 1.092-0.2% -2.7% SMALL SUV 0.918 0.915 0.939 0.3% -2.3% MINIVAN 1.096 1.073 1.120 2.2% -2.2% FULL-SIZE SUV 1.019 8 1.040 1.0% -2.1% LUXURY MID-SIZE SEDAN 0.942 0.942 0.959 0.0% -1.8% SPORTS CAR 0.918 0.918 0.920-0.1% -0.3% FULL-SIZE PICKUP 1.087 1.098 1.070-1.0% 1.5% FULL-SIZE VAN 1.028 1.034 0.995-0.6% 3.3% Total 1.024 1.022 1.051 0.2% -2.6% Chart 17 Real Luxury Small Sedan prices are expected to decline over the next three years. RVI Used Car Price Index 2001 2006 Luxury Small 2011 Sedan 2016 2021 1.20 1.15 1.10 1.05 0.95 0.930 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 RVI Analytical Services Table 3 By 2020, used car prices in the Luxury Small Sedan segment are expected to drop by 9.6% from today s levels. Aug-17 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 RVI Competitive Index 1.013 4 1.143 1.216 1.233 1.245 1.224 vs Previous Year 6.2% 13.8% 6.4% 1.4% 1.0% -1.7% RVI Used Vehicle Stock Index 1.127 1.107 1.108 0.987 0.889 0.921 0.940 vs Previous Year 29.2% 0.1% -10.9% -9.9% 3.7% 2.1% RVI Used Vehicle Price Index - Real 0.930 0.913 0.887 0.842 0.841 0.864 0.910 vs Previous Year -5.1% -2.8% -5.1% -0.2% 2.8% 5.2% vs Current Levels -1.7% -4.5% -9.4% -9.6% -7.0% -2.1% September 2017 5
RVI Used Vehicle Price Index (Real) Forecast by Segment: USA USA - RVI Used Vehicle Price Index (Real): Forecast by Segment RVI SEGMENT Aug-17 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 SUB-COMPACT 1.245 1.229 1.191 1.144 1.155 1.208 1.272 vs Previous Year -6.8% -3.1% -3.9% 1.0% 4.6% 5.3% vs Current Levels -1.3% -4.3% -8.1% -7.2% -3.0% 2.2% COMPACT 0.900 0.894 0.870 0.829 0.830 0.865 0.913 vs Previous Year -6.4% -2.7% -4.7% 0.1% 4.2% 5.5% vs Current Levels -0.7% -3.4% -7.9% -7.8% -3.9% 1.4% MID-SIZE SEDAN 0.956 0.946 0.922 0.878 0.885 0.923 0.973 vs Previous Year -5.2% -2.5% -4.7% 0.8% 4.3% 5.4% vs Current Levels -1.1% -3.5% -8.1% -7.4% -3.4% 1.8% FULL-SIZE SEDAN 0.928 0.915 0.901 0.863 0.871 0.910 0.976 vs Previous Year -6.1% -1.5% -4.2% 0.9% 4.5% 7.2% vs Current Levels -1.4% -2.9% -7.0% -6.2% -1.9% 5.1% SPORTY COUPE 0.986 0.971 0.963 0.923 0.918 0.946 0.993 vs Previous Year -5.2% -0.9% -4.1% -0.6% 3.1% 4.9% vs Current Levels -1.5% -2.4% -6.4% -7.0% -4.1% 0.6% SPORTS CAR 0.918 0.909 0.974 0.960 0.945 0.964 3 vs Previous Year -1.5% 7.1% -1.4% -1.5% 2.0% 4.0% vs Current Levels -0.9% 6.1% 4.6% 3.0% 5.1% 9.3% LUXURY COUPE 1.050 1.043 1.014 0.959 0.938 0.959 1.018 vs Previous Year -2.2% -2.8% -5.4% -2.2% 2.2% 6.2% vs Current Levels -0.7% -3.4% -8.6% -10.6% -8.7% -3.0% LUXURY SMALL SEDAN 0.930 0.913 0.887 0.842 0.841 0.864 0.910 vs Previous Year -5.1% -2.8% -5.1% -0.2% 2.8% 5.2% vs Current Levels -1.7% -4.5% -9.4% -9.6% -7.0% -2.1% LUXURY MID-SIZE SEDAN 0.942 0.927 0.919 0.881 0.872 0.900 0.946 vs Previous Year -3.9% -0.9% -4.1% -1.0% 3.1% 5.2% vs Current Levels -1.5% -2.4% -6.5% -7.4% -4.5% 0.5% LUXURY FULL-SIZE SEDAN 1.015 4 0.960 0.903 0.897 0.938 1.022 vs Previous Year -3.2% -4.4% -5.9% -0.7% 4.6% 8.9% vs Current Levels -1.1% -5.5% -11.0% -11.7% -7.6% 0.6% SMALL PICKUP 1.275 1.313 1.229 1.128 1.090 1.129 1.181 vs Previous Year -2.9% -6.4% -8.2% -3.3% 3.5% 4.6% vs Current Levels 3.0% -3.6% -11.6% -14.5% -11.5% -7.4% FULL-SIZE PICKUP 1.087 1.063 1.053 0 1 1.042 1.099 vs Previous Year 0.3% -0.9% -5.0% 0.1% 4.0% 5.5% vs Current Levels -2.2% -3.1% -8.0% -7.9% -4.2% 1.1% MINIVAN 1.096 1.068 1.069 1.029 1.029 1.066 1.119 vs Previous Year -3.6% 0.1% -3.8% 0.0% 3.5% 5.0% vs Current Levels -2.5% -2.4% -6.1% -6.1% -2.7% 2.1% FULL-SIZE VAN 1.028 0.992 0 0.949 0.940 0.973 1.021 vs Previous Year -1.6% 0.8% -5.1% -1.0% 3.5% 5.0% vs Current Levels -3.5% -2.7% -7.7% -8.6% -5.4% -0.6% SMALL SUV 0.918 0.918 0.877 0.826 0.811 0.835 0.876 vs Previous Year -4.9% -4.5% -5.8% -1.7% 2.9% 4.9% vs Current Levels 0.1% -4.4% -10.0% -11.6% -9.1% -4.6% MID-SIZE SUV 1.176 1.153 1.128 1.057 1.057 1.109 1.176 vs Previous Year -4.7% -2.2% -6.3% 0.0% 5.0% 6.0% vs Current Levels -1.9% -4.1% -10.1% -10.1% -5.7% 0.0% FULL-SIZE SUV 1.019 0.992 0.983 0.920 0.882 0.904 0.955 vs Previous Year -3.7% -0.9% -6.5% -4.1% 2.5% 5.5% vs Current Levels -2.7% -3.5% -9.7% -13.4% -11.2% -6.3% LUXURY SUV 1.063 1.055 1.019 0.957 0.941 0.964 6 vs Previous Year -3.9% -3.4% -6.1% -1.7% 2.4% 4.3% vs Current Levels -0.7% -4.1% -9.9% -11.4% -9.3% -5.3% Market Level 1.024 1.011 0.989 0.935 0.928 0.962 1.012 vs Previous Year -4.2% -2.2% -5.4% -0.7% 3.6% 5.2% vs Current Levels -1.3% -3.5% -8.7% -9.4% -6.1% -1.2% September 2017 6
Canadian Outlook Chart 18 GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.5% in the 2 nd quarter of 2017. 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% % Change fromprevious period10.0% GDP Growth - Canada Chart 21 The US to Canadian exchange rate was unchanged in August 2017, remaining at $0.79 USD/CAD. As of September 25, 2017, the exchange rate was at $0.82 USD/CAD. $US per $Can 1.20 1.10 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 Exchange Rate Chart 19 Unemployment decreased to 6.2% in August from 6.3% in July 2017. 9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 Unemployment Rate (Seasonally Adjusted) Chart 22 Canadian gas prices increased to $1.13/liter in August from $1.09/liter in July. When compared to August 2016, gas prices are up by 9.2% Canadian Cents Per Liter 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 Regular Gas Prices - Canada Chart 20 Prices (CPI) have increased by 1.2% from July 2016. % Change fromyear earlier 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% Consumer Price Index (seasonally adjusted) - All Items Chart 23 Light vehicle sales were 2.0 million SAAR in July, a 3.1% increase from July of 2016. Millions ofunits 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 Canadian Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR) 1.2 Sources: Statistics Canada. Kent Group Ltd. September 2017 7
Canadian Outlook (Cont d) Chart 24 In July 2017, new vehicle prices saw an increase of 3.2% from July 2016. Chart 25 For our Canadian forecast, we focus on the supply of offlease vehicles in the North American market. For August 2017, our Lease Supply Index increased by 14.0% when compared to August 2016. Table 4 Among higher volume segments, Mid-Size Sedan prices increased the most on a year-over-year basis. Meanwhile, Sub-Compact Cars prices decreased 8.9% on a year-over-year basis. RVI USED VEHICLE PRICE INDEX-REAL % Change from RVI_SEGMENT Aug-17 Jul-17 Aug-16 M-to-M Y-to-Y FULL-SIZE VAN 0.819 0.819 0.958-0.1% -14.5% SUB-COMPACT 0.762 0.815 0.837-6.5% -8.9% FULL-SIZE SEDAN 0.914 6 0.988-9.1% -7.5% FULL-SIZE SUV 0.846 0.923 0.894-8.4% -5.4% MINIVAN 0.905 0.914 0.934-0.9% -3.1% FULL-SIZE PICKUP 1.042 1.053 1.073-1.0% -2.9% SMALL SUV 0.888 0.940 0.904-5.6% -1.8% MID-SIZE SUV 1.060 1.088 1.071-2.6% -1.0% SPORTY COUPE 0.876 0.937 0.874-6.5% 0.2% LUXURY SMALL SEDAN 0.958 0.978 0.956-2.0% 0.3% LUXURY MID-SIZE SEDAN 1.117 1.074 1.112 3.9% 0.4% SMALL SEDAN 0.773 0.786 0.767-1.7% 0.8% COMPACT 0.934 0.932 0.907 0.2% 2.9% LUXURY SUV 1.044 1.067 1.011-2.2% 3.2% MID-SIZE SEDAN 0.990 0.937 0.891 5.7% 11.2% LUXURY FULL-SIZE SEDAN 1.020 0.941 0.861 8.4% 18.5% LUXURY COUPE 1.283 1.099 0.912 16.7% 40.7% SMALL PICKUP 1.264 1.458 0.851-13.3% 48.4% Total 0.947 0.963 0.939-1.7% 0.8% *Low volume vehicle segments highlighted in gray Table 5 Due to a growing supply of used vehicles (including many offlease vehicles), and a stronger projected exchange rate, we expect Canadian used car prices to decline by 7.5% by 2020, relative to current levels. Aug-17 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Unemployment 6.2 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.7 Gas Prices (CAN$ / L) $ 1.13 $ 1.10 $ 1.07 $ 1.01 $ 1.02 $ 1.07 $ 1.07 vs Previous Year 8.5% -2.8% -5.7% 1.0% 4.8% 0.4% GDP Growth Rate (2017Q1) 4.50 3.26 2.25 1.82 1.79 2.04 2.30 Exchange Rates (US$ per CAN$) 0.79 0.76 0.77 0.83 0.85 0.83 0.84 Chart 26 In August, used car prices decreased 1.7% when compared to July. On a year-over-year basis, real used vehicle prices increased by 0.8%. New Vehicle Sales (SAAR 7/1/2017) 1.96 2.00 1.96 1.92 1.91 1.92 1.92 vs Previous Year 3.2% -1.9% -1.8% -0.7% 0.4% 0.2% RVI Competitive Index 0.918 0.921 0.920 0.927 0.932 0.938 0.936 vs Previous Year -4.7% -0.1% 0.7% 0.5% 0.7% -0.2% RVI Lease Supply Index (North America) 1.020 0.998 1.154 1.334 1.361 1.325 1.243 vs Previous Year 20.4% 15.6% 15.6% 2.0% -2.7% -6.1% RVI Used Vehicle Stock Index 0.919 0.915 0.954 0.991 1.018 1.021 5 vs Previous Year 3.7% 4.3% 3.9% 2.7% 0.3% -1.6% RVI UCPI - Real 0.947 0.943 0.928 0.884 0.875 0.886 0.896 vs Previous Year -0.1% -1.6% -4.7% -1.0% 1.2% 1.1% vs Current Levels -0.4% -2.0% -6.6% -7.5% -6.5% -5.4% Sources: Statistics Canada Moody s Analytics Forecast RVI Analytical Services Kent Group Ltd September 2017 8
RVI Used Vehicle Price Index (Real) Forecast by Segment: Canada Canada - RVI Used Vehicle Price Index (Real): Forecast by Segment RVI_SEGMENT Aug-17 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 SUB-COMPACT 0.762 0.816 0.789 0.747 0.717 0.722 0.735 0.743 vs Previous Year 0.0% -3.3% -5.3% -4.0% 0.7% 1.8% 1.1% vs Current Levels 7.1% 3.5% -2.0% -5.8% -5.2% -3.5% -2.4% COMPACT 0.934 0.888 0.917 0.915 0.862 0.854 0.876 0.890 vs Previous Year 0.0% 3.3% -0.2% -5.8% -0.9% 2.6% 1.6% vs Current Levels -4.9% -1.7% -2.0% -7.7% -8.5% -6.1% -4.6% MID-SIZE SEDAN 0.990 0.927 0.946 0.975 0.929 0.923 0.940 0.952 vs Previous Year 0.0% 2.1% 3.1% -4.8% -0.6% 1.9% 1.2% vs Current Levels -6.4% -4.4% -1.5% -6.2% -6.8% -5.0% -3.9% FULL-SIZE SEDAN 0.914 0.899 0.955 0.895 0.856 0.860 0.877 0.895 vs Previous Year 0.0% 6.2% -6.3% -4.3% 0.4% 2.0% 2.0% vs Current Levels -1.6% 4.5% -2.1% -6.3% -5.9% -4.0% -2.1% SPORTY COUPE 0.876 0.855 0.893 0.863 0.814 0.811 0.838 0.853 vs Previous Year 0.0% 4.4% -3.4% -5.6% -0.4% 3.4% 1.8% vs Current Levels -2.4% 1.9% -1.6% -7.1% -7.4% -4.3% -2.6% LUXURY COUPE 1.283 1.262 1.249 1.254 1.192 1.183 1.186 1.192 vs Previous Year 0.0% -1.1% 0.4% -4.9% -0.8% 0.3% 0.5% vs Current Levels -1.6% -2.6% -2.2% -7.0% -7.8% -7.5% -7.1% LUXURY SMALL SEDAN 0.958 0.953 0.939 0.926 0.869 0.853 0.861 0.873 vs Previous Year 0.0% -1.5% -1.4% -6.1% -1.9% 0.9% 1.4% vs Current Levels -0.6% -2.1% -3.4% -9.3% -11.0% -10.2% -8.9% LUXURY MID-SIZE SEDAN 1.117 1.100 1.109 1.088 1.033 1.029 1.043 1.052 vs Previous Year 0.0% 0.8% -1.9% -5.0% -0.4% 1.4% 0.9% vs Current Levels -1.5% -0.7% -2.5% -7.5% -7.8% -6.6% -5.8% LUXURY FULL-SIZE SEDAN 1.020 0.945 0.989 1 0.953 0.928 0.937 0.983 vs Previous Year 0.0% 4.6% 1.2% -4.8% -2.6% 1.0% 4.9% vs Current Levels -7.3% -3.1% -1.9% -6.6% -9.0% -8.1% -3.6% SMALL PICKUP 1.264 1.271 1.310 1.246 1.173 1.125 1.114 1.126 vs Previous Year 0.0% 3.0% -4.9% -5.8% -4.2% -0.9% 1.1% vs Current Levels 0.6% 3.6% -1.4% -7.2% -11.0% -11.8% -10.9% FULL-SIZE PICKUP 1.042 1.059 1.048 1.030 2 0.989 0.982 0.991 vs Previous Year 0.0% -1.1% -1.7% -2.7% -1.3% -0.7% 0.9% vs Current Levels 1.6% 0.5% -1.2% -3.9% -5.1% -5.8% -4.9% FULL-SIZE VAN 0.819 0.833 0.787 0.805 0.765 0.757 0.768 0.771 vs Previous Year 0.0% -5.5% 2.2% -5.0% -1.0% 1.4% 0.4% vs Current Levels 1.8% -3.8% -1.7% -6.6% -7.5% -6.2% -5.8% MINIVAN 0.905 0.904 0.887 0.884 0.863 0.871 0.875 0.882 vs Previous Year 0.0% -1.8% -0.4% -2.3% 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% vs Current Levels -0.2% -2.0% -2.4% -4.7% -3.8% -3.3% -2.6% SMALL SUV 0.888 0.939 0.914 0.867 0.819 0.812 0.827 0.836 vs Previous Year 0.0% -2.7% -5.1% -5.5% -0.9% 1.9% 1.1% vs Current Levels 5.8% 3.0% -2.3% -7.7% -8.6% -6.9% -5.8% MID-SIZE SUV 1.060 1.101 1.066 1.037 0.983 0.976 0.993 8 vs Previous Year 0.0% -3.2% -2.7% -5.2% -0.7% 1.7% 1.6% vs Current Levels 3.9% 0.6% -2.1% -7.3% -7.9% -6.3% -4.9% FULL-SIZE SUV 0.846 0.925 0.882 0.836 0.801 0.774 0.768 0.777 vs Previous Year 0.0% -4.6% -5.3% -4.1% -3.4% -0.8% 1.2% 9.4% 4.3% -1.2% -5.3% -8.5% -9.3% -8.1% LUXURY SUV 1.044 1.017 1.040 1.022 0.969 0.950 0.954 0.960 vs Previous Year 0.0% 2.3% -1.7% -5.2% -2.0% 0.5% 0.6% vs Current Levels -2.6% -0.3% -2.1% -7.1% -9.0% -8.6% -8.0% Market Level 0.947 0.944 0.943 0.928 0.884 0.875 0.886 0.896 vs Previous Year 0.0% -0.1% -1.6% -4.7% -1.0% 1.2% 1.1% vs Current Levels -0.3% -0.4% -2.0% -6.6% -7.5% -6.5% -5.4% September 2017 9
RVI G R O U P Our Experience is Your Assurance RVI Group offers a broad portfolio of specialty insurance products, financial solutions and analytical services. With our sophisticated underwriting, risk analysis and asset valuation expertise; we deliver a wide range of benefits to clients worldwide. RVI Group s two insurance companies are the world s leading providers of residual value insurance. For over 25 years, our solutions have brought financial, regulatory and accounting benefits to clients who are active worldwide in leasing, asset-based finance, and asset securitization. Residual value insurance helps clients manage asset value risk by guaranteeing that a properly maintained asset will have a specified value at a future date. It is an enormously flexible tool with benefits that range from simple risk mitigation to complex financial objectives such as capital and expense optimization. Residual value insurance has applicability in three major asset areas: Passenger Vehicles, Commercial Equipment and Aircraft, and Commercial Real Estate. RVI Analytical Services, Inc. provides residual value analysis of passenger vehicle portfolios for leasing companies and car manufacturers. RVIAS also offers a number of services to help clients manage risk at different stages of a lease term. These services include econometric risk modeling, portfolio value forecasting and end-of-term exposure analysis. Our offices located in Stamford, Connecticut, Hamilton, Bermuda and Scarsdale, New York serve the need of our clients in the United States, Canada, Europe, and Asia. Passenger Vehicles Our core expertise is residual risk assessment based on deep industry knowledge and sophisticated analytics. Our insurance solutions are underwritten utilizing proprietary modeling and residual value forecasts. Residual Value Insurance is utilized to a) manage residual risk exposure against unforeseeable market fluctuations, and b) optimize lease accounting by creating a financial asset which improves efficiency ratios. We work closely with clients to understand their business objectives, so that each insurance policy is custom designed to precisely match the client s needs. Each client is supported by a dedicated account team to provide RVI s best-in-class customer service. We serve a wide range of lessors and lenders: banks, captive finance companies, independent lessors, credit unions, and fleet management companies. New Residual Value Products to provide added confidence to dealers as they stock, trade and sell vehicle inventory and reduce uncertainty and limit risk for consumers in automobile transactions: Market Value Protection (MVP): short-term (30-90 day) residual value insurance providing coverage on the value of vehicles bought or sold in the wholesale market. MVP mitigates a dealer s risk to shifts in market values. Trade Value Protection (TVP): TVP offers a marketing advantage to dealers by allowing them to provide protection to a consumer in connection with the tradein of a purchased vehicle within a 2-4-year timeframe. TVP enhances customer loyalty by providing protection only upon return to the same dealer or OEM for the next vehicle purchase. *This is not a solicitation of business. These materials are provided for information purposes only and are provided on an as is, as available basis. 201 Broad Street Stamford, CT 06901-2048 Tel. 203.975.2100 Fax 203.975.2199 www.rvigroup.com