Trends in clean energy and transportation CAISO Stakeholder Symposium Sacramento Michael Liebreich October 18, 217
Global new clean energy investment and capacity installations 5. 4. 16. 14. 12. 3. 2. 1. $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $25bn $27bn $276bn $317bn $291bn $269bn $315bn 1 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich $349bn $287bn $258bn (estimate).. 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro. 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.
Global new clean energy investment and capacity installations 5. 16. 14. 4. 3. 2. 1. $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $25bn $27bn $276bn $317bn $291bn $269bn $315bn 2 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich $349bn $287bn Approx $29bn $258bn.. 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro. (estimate) 12. $3 billion 1. 8. 6. 4. 2.
Global new clean energy investment and capacity installations 5. 16GW 16. 14. 4. 3. 2. 1.. 2GW $62bn $88bn $128bn $175bn $25bn $27bn 88GW $276bn $317bn $291bn $269bn $315bn 3 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich $349bn $287bn Approx $29bn $258bn 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro. (estimate) 12. $3 billion 1. 8. 6. 4. 2..
Global new clean energy investment and capacity installations 5. Spend the same, get double 16GW 16. 14. 4. 3. 2. 1.. 2GW $62bn Spend more, get more $88bn $128bn $175bn $25bn $27bn 88GW $276bn $317bn $291bn $269bn $315bn 4 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich $349bn $287bn Approx $27bn $258bn 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics). Excludes large hydro. (estimate) 12. $3 billion 1. 8. 6. 4. 2..
New clean energy investment by region EMEA APAC AMER 5 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
New Investment in Clean Energy EMEA 1Q 24 3Q 217 6 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
EU member state coal consumption 2-16 Mt coal per year 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 Germany Poland UK Czech Rep Spain Italy Romania Netherlands Greece 5 8 4 5 8 4 5 8 4 5 8 5 8 5 8 5 8 7 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich 4 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, BP Statistical Review 4 4 4 5 8 4 5 8 4 5 8 Bulgaria 4
UK coal consumption 185-23 (mt/yr) 25 2 15 1 5 BNEF NEO 216 forecast 185 186 187 188 189 19 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 8 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich Source: BEIS, Prof. David Rutledge, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Energiewende impact on Germany CO2 emissions MtCO2e Power sector emissions Source: UBA; BNEF 9 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
New Investment in Clean Energy APAC 1Q 24 3Q 217 1 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
China snapshot China yoy% growth in power demand 25% Thermal capacity factor and RE curtailment 7% 2% 6% 5% Average thermal capacity factor 15% 4% 1% 5% 3% 2% 1% Wind curtailment Solar curtailment % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 Note: Thermal capacity factor includes all fossil fuel-fired thermal capacity. Wind and solar curtailment figures are not national averages, but refer to select provinces which exhibited the worst cases of curtailment nationally over the period Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Electricity Council, National Energy Administration 11 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Price of renewable energy in India The cost of solar power is now cheaper than coal in this country. Image: Twitter Piyush Goyal Minister of State for Power, Coal, New & Renewable Energy and Mines, India 12 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
New Investment in Clean Energy AMER 1Q 24 3Q 217 13 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Trump on climate 1 June 217 The United States will withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord. Donald Trump US President Image: Bloomberg 14 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Trump on climate 17 September 217 The President said he's open to finding those conditions where we can remain engaged with others on what we all agree is still a challenging issue. Rex Tillerson US Secretary of State Image: US Department of Energy 15 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Trump on climate 16 September 217 There has been no change in the United States' position on the Paris agreement. Sarah Huckabee Sanders White House Press Secretary Image: Washington Examiner 16 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
International response to Trump on climate Whatever! \_( ツ )_/ Source: Emojipedia 17 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
US response to Trump on climate > 17 Businesses and investors > 2 cities and counties We re still in! States and tribes Colleges and universities 18 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Making America Great Again Image: White House; EPA 19 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Secretary Perry s Notice of Proposed Rule-Making (NOPR) to FERC As a first step it is particularly urgent to prevent premature retirement of the resources that have these critical attributes* * Huge piles of coal Image: Bloomberg Rick Perry US Secretary of Energy 2 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
US power sector fuel mix Generation by source Change in generation 27-16 TWh/yr TWh/yr 2,5 8 6 2, 1,5 4 2 Gas +483TWh/yr Renewables +256TWh/yr 1, 5-2 -4 Coal -776TWh/yr Power demand -78TWh/yr -6 199 1995 2 25 21 215-8 Displaced coal Energy efficiency Gas Renewables Source: EIA 21 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Vistra/Luminant s recent Texas retirement announcements Monticello, East Texas 1,88 MW Big Brown, Freestone County 1,15 MW Sandow, Milam County 1,137 MW Images: Luminant; various 22 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Module price scenarios in 219 assuming Suniva s requested tariffs are imposed U.S. cents per watt 8 72. 72. Module floor price impact 6 Cell tariff 4 3. 33. 37.5 Extra module cost 2 3 3 3 3 3 Free market Extra cell cost Free market price US cell, SEA module US cell, US module SEA cell, US module SEA cell, SEA module Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (Chinese PV, New U.S. Tariffs, and the Potential Workarounds) Note: SEA = Southeast Asia; 72 cents is the proposed 219 module price floor 23 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Unsubsidised clean energy world records 215 Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: UAE AQWA January 215 217 US$ 5.84 c/kwh Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: USA Various 215 216 US$ 4.5 c/kwh Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Horns Rev, Denmark Vattenfall Feb 215 217 US$ 12.13 c/kwh Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Images: Siemens; Wikimedia Commons; Electrek 24 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Unsubsidised clean energy world records 216 Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Mexico FRV 216 219 US$ 2.69 c/kwh Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Morocco Enel Green Power 216 218 US$ 3. c/kwh Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Denmark Vattenfall December 215 219 US$ 5.3 c/kwh Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Images: Siemens; Wikimedia Commons; Electrek 25 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Unsubsidised clean energy world records 217 Solar PV Onshore wind Offshore wind Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: Saudi Arabia Masdar 217 219 US$ 1.79 c/kwh* Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Price: India ReNew Power 217 219 US$ 2. c/kwh Country: Bidder: Signed: Construction: Merchant Price: Germany DONG/EnBW 216 224 US$ 4.9 c/kwh * Headline figure only - may include elements of subsidy, price support or price escalation; not final Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance; Images: Siemens; Wikimedia Commons; Electrek 26 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Wind and solar experience curves Wind Solar eur/mwh $/W 1,24 512 256 128 1985 1999 29 1 1 1976 1985 23 28 64 32 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 214 225 1 Learning Learning rate =19% = 19% Learning rate = 24-28% R² =.91 16 1 1, 1, 1, 1,, Cumulative capacity (MW) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 27 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich.1 215 217 (estimate) 1 1 1 1 Cumulative capacity (MW)
Evolution of wind turbine heights and output 3m 13-15 MW 2m 7 MW 9 MW 4 MW 1m 1.2 MW 2 MW 1-12kW.5 MW 19 th C 199 1995 2 25 21 215 225 Sources: Various; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 28 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Tipping point 1: new vs new China $/MWh (real 216) CCGT U.S. $/MWh (real 216) 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 Utility-scale PV Source: Bloomberg New New Energy Energy Finance, NEO 217 Coal 2 Onshore wind 217 22 225 23 235 24 12 1 8 6 4 Utility-scale PV Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance CCGT Coal 2 Onshore wind 217 22 225 23 235 24 29 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Tipping point 2: new vs existing Germany $/MWh (real 216) 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Utility-scale PV Onshore wind Coal CCGT 217 22 225 23 235 24 Source: Bloomberg New New Energy Energy Finance, NEO 217 China $/MWh (real 216) 12 1 8 6 4 2 Utility-scale PV Onshore wind Coal Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance CCGT 217 22 225 23 235 24 3 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Solar and wind attract 6% of new investment in power generating capacity Investment, by technology, 217-24 Investment, by technology, 217-24 ($ trillion - 216 real) Fossil fuels 14% Wind Solar $2.8 $3.3 $1.2 trillion Zerocarbon 86% Nuclear Hydro Gas $.8 $1.1 $1.4 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Coal $.7 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, NEO 217 31 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Coal retires, gas plays an important role in providing flexible capacity Incremental change in gas consumption Bcm/yr 12 8 4-4 -8-12 217-2 221-25 226-3 231-35 236-4 China India Rest of APAC Americas Europe ME & Africa ROW Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Incremental change in generation Δ generation (TWh) 1,2 8 4-4 -8-1,2 221-225 226-23 231-235 236-24 Coal Gas Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 32 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Demand response and batteries meet peak and balance the grid GW 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 212 216 22 225 23 235 24 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Other flexible capacity Demand response Utility-scale batteries Small-scale batteries Top 5 markets in 24 China 343GW U.S. 2GW India 127GW Japan 62GW Germany 3GW 33 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Renewable energy (exc large hydro) proportion of power generation, 26-16 Canada UK 25% China 5% 6% 2% Germany 29% 6% 1% 9% Japan US 3% 9% Spain 3% Italy 7% 12% 13% 25% Lowest 12% India Mid Highest No data 6% Brazil 18% South Africa 4% 6% 3% Australia 12% 1% 3% Note: Excludes large hydro Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 34 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Variable renewables high penetration 13 February 217 SPP 52% wind 25 December 216 Scotland 153% wind 9 July 215 Denmark 14% wind 23 March 217 CAISO 46% wind & solar November 217 ERCOT 45% wind 9 April 217 UK 56% wind & solar November 215 Spain 7% wind May 216 Germany 67% wind & solar 26 December 214 South Australia 61% wind & solar Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, various 35 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Evolving structure of power supply - Germany Past winter Current winter Future winter 8 8 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 2-2 -2-2 -4 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday -4 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday -4 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday 8 Past summer 8 Current summer 8 Future summer 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 2-2 -2-2 -4-4 -4 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Peaking fossil Baseload fossil Nuclear CHP Hydro Baseload RE Solar Wind Pumped hydro generation/storage Imports Exports/curtailment/DR 36 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Evolving structure of power supply - California Huge ramp rates up and down First week of May 212 (actual) First week of May 217 (actual) First week of May 23 (modelled) No more baseload Source: CAISO OASIS; CEC proposed IRP; LM Power; CESA; Bloomberg New Energy Finance 37 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich Lots of DR, storage and export - or curtailment
BEV model availability, 28-2 SUVs/Trucks Sports cars Sedans Hatchbacks Runabouts Small vans Land Rover Defender Mahindra everito SAIC E-Lavida CODA EV Toyota RAV4 Fiat 5e Mitsubishi i-miev Venturi Fetish Honda Clarity BAIC EU26 JAC iev4 Renault Fluence BYD e5 Kia Ray Hyundai BMW i3 BlueOn M-B E-Cell VW e-golf Chevy Spark Honda Fit Ford Focus Nissan Leaf Renault Zoe ZE BMW mini e Kandi Panda Smart Renault Twizy ForTwo Ford Transit Nissan NV2 Peugeot Partner M-B B-Class Hyundai Ioniq Tata IRIS BYD e6 Renault DeZir ChangAn Eado Smith Edison M-B Vito Trumpchi GS4 Qianto Q5 Renault Kangoo Tesla Roadster Tesla Model S M-B SLS edrive Aston Martin GLM G4 NIO EP9 RapidE Exagon Furtive Geely Emgrand VW e-up Seat Mii* Mahindra e2o Bollore Bluesummer BYD T3 VW Budd-e ChangAn EM8 Jaguar I-Pace Mitsubishi ex Tesla Model Y* Mullen 7e NIO ES8* Tesla Model 3 VW e-bulli Chevy Bolt Audi E-tron Sportback Nissan Leaf 2* Tesla VW I.D.* pickup* BMW i5 Tesla Model X Chehejia SUV* VW I.D. LeEco LeSEE Audi R8 E-tron 28 29 21 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 22 211 VW I.D. BUZZ VW I.D. CROZZ Volvo 4.2* M-B EQ Audi E-tron Quattro Porsche E-sport Tesla Roadster* NIO EVE Lucid Air Faraday FF91 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Images various. Notes: Not exhaustive. (*) Range is estimate 5 1 15 2 25 3 35+ miles range per charge 38 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Lithium-ion EV battery pack prices, historical and forecast $/kwh 1, 9 8 7 6 BNEF observed values: annual lithium-ion battery price index 21-16. BNEF observed values 5 4 3 2 1 225 average lithiumion battery price: $19/kWh 23 average lithium-ion battery price: $73/kWh 21 212 214 216 218 22 222 224 226 228 23 Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Prices are an average of BEV and PHEV batteries and include both cell and pack costs. Cell costs alone will be lower. Historical prices are nominal, future ones are in real 216 U.S. dollars. 39 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich 19% learning rate Unsubsidized sticker-price crossover with ICE 225-229
Electric vehicle outlook to 24 Annual global light duty vehicle sales million vehicles 14 12 1 54% 8 43% 6 24% 4 2 8% 3% 215 22 225 23 235 24 ICE sales EV sales Global light duty vehicle fleet million cars on road 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 8 33% 6 19% 4 7% 2 1% 2% 215 22 225 23 235 24 ICE fleet EV fleet Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance EVO 217 4 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
IIoT players by product and applications focus Broad Application focus Specific Integrated IIoT systems Networks and communications Data analytics Cloud providers Applications software Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, company websites Note: Application focus describes the industries the company targets. A broad focus indicates cross-industry collaboration and solutions, specific means a focus on one or two industries, such as transport or energy. 41 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Investment by majors in energy software companies Smart grid Home energy management Opus One Solutions $1m volumes undisclosed REstore $8m Advanced Microgrid Solutions $19m Autogrid $42m Sunverge $54m Enbala Power Networks $48m Smarter Grid Solutions $15m 28 '9 '1 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Note: (1) Logos indicate strategic investors only. (2) The thickness of lines indicates cumulative disclosed investments. (3) Diamonds indicate new investments. 42 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
Digitization technologies Existing technologies driving digitization Emerging technologies driving digitization Batteries Behind the meter generation Machine learning and AI DERMS Cloud storage Big data Internet of Things Blockchain Home energy management Smart data Smart grid Edge processing Demand response Electric vehicles Virtual power plants Cyber security Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 43 October 18, 217 CAISO Stakeholder Symposium, Sacramento @mliebreich
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Coverage. Renewable Energy Power & Utilities Gas Carbon Markets & Climate Negotiations Energy Smart Technologies Storage Electric Vehicles Mobility and Autonomous Driving Frontier Power Emerging Technologies sales.bnef@bloomberg.net about.bnef.com @BloombergNEF Michael Liebreich michael@liebreichassociates.com Bloomberg New Energy Finance is a research firm that helps energy professionals generate opportunities. With a team of experts spread across six continents, BNEF provides independent analysis and insight, enabling decision-makers to navigate change in an evolving energy economy. BNEF research and analysis is accessible via web and mobile platforms, as well as on the Bloomberg Terminal.