CEE & Russian PVC Markets Global Vinyl Council 19-2 October, Saint-Petersburg Sergey Yaremenko, Market Report Company (MRC)
Agenda PVC market in Eastern Europe Balance of PVC production in EE Trends in C&SEE production till 21 Russian PVC market
Eastern Europe: which countries? Belarus Bulgaria Bosnia and Herzegovina Hungary Latvia Lithuania Macedonia Serbia and Montenegro Slovakia Slovenia Ukraine Croatia Czech Rep. Estonia Population 143,5 mln. people 16 countries Population 178 mln. people Poland Russia Romania Turkey Population 72,1 mln. people
Eastern Europe: macroeconomics GDP increase, % Population in Eastern Europe, mln. people 8% 6% 4% 4,1% 3,3% 3,% 4,6% 6,2% 4,% 5,1% 4,9% 4,7% 4,4% 4,3% 2 184 183 179 179 178 178 177 176 175 175 174 1 2% % 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 GDP* per capita in Eastern Europe, USD Construction in Eastern Europe per capita, m 2 8 6 4 2 2 55 2 783 3 197 3 851 4 635 4 992 5 525 6 58 6 59 7 123 7 656 3 2 1 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,6 1,6 1,7 1,8 1,9 1,9 2, 2,1 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 * According to the direct method Source: World Bank, MRC
Eastern Europe: 24 GDP per capita (PPP), ' USD GDP, bln. USD (PPP) 25 Slovenia 42 2 Estonia 16 Czech Rep 181 Hungary 15 1 161 Slovakia 79 Lithuania 42 Croatia 58 Poland 483 Russia 112 5 Bulgaria 63 Romania 176 Ukraine 36 Turkey 616 3 6 9 12 15 Source: World Bank Population, mln. people
Eastern Europe: 24 Per capita, m 2 5 Hungary 46 Living construction market, mln.. m 2 4 Czech Rep 3 Poland 142 3 Eastern Europe 265 2 Lithuania 5 1 Belarus' 4 Romania 3 Ukraine 8 Turkey 94 Russia 49 3 6 9 12 15 18 Source: World Bank Population, mln. people
World PVC consumption 14 12 Market in 24, mln. MT Market in 21, mln. MT +5% per year Source: CMAI 1 8 +1,5% per year 6 +,5% per year 4 +8% per year 2 +5% per year +3% per year North America South America Western Europe Eastern Europe +CIS+Turkey Asia Africa + Middle East
World PVC* consumption, КТ PVC per capita, kg 18 North America 7322 16 14 12 Western Europe 5621 24 1 8 Turkey 588 6 4 2 South America 1173 Eastern Europe 83 Africa 1436 China 6642 in the world 5,6 kg Russia 448-5% % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% * Here and further without compounds Source: Harriman Chemsult Market increase, 99-4, %
World PVC consumption, КТ 18 North America 7 65 16 14 Western Europe 5 68 21 12 Turkey 894 1 8 6 4 China 1 18 Eastern Europe 1 124 South America 1 368 Russia 839 in the world 7, kg 2 Africa 1 95-5% % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% Source: Harriman Chemsult Market increase, 5-1, %
Eastern Europe: PVC consumption, КТ PVC per capita, kg 12 1 Hungary 11 Poland 376 24: consumption per capita made up 4,5 kg 8 Turkey 588 6 4 2 Czech Rep 55 Bulgaria 16 Romania 45 Eastern Europe 83 Slovakia 26 Ex-Yugoslavia 71 Russia 448 Belarus 23 Estonia 3 Lithuania 15 in the world 5,6 kg in China 4,44 kg in Russia 3,2 kg Ukraine 61 % 5% 1% 15% 2% 25% 3% 35% 4% 45% 5% Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC Market increase, 99-4,%
Eastern Europe: PVC consumption, КТ PVC per capita, kg 15 12 9 6 3 Hungary 119 Czech Rep 6 Bulgaria 19 43 Slovakia Poland 472 Ex-Yugoslavia 1 Eastern Europe 1 124 Romania 89 Turkey 894 Estonia 5 Russia 839 Belarus 38 in Western Europe 14,5 kg Ukraine 148 Lithuania 26 21: PVC consumption per capita made up 6,6 kg in the world 7, kg in China 6,7 kg in Russia 5,9 kg % 5% 1% 15% 2% Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC Market increase, 5-1,%
Eastern Europe: PVC consumption PVC consumption in Eastern Europe, KT PVC consumption in EE per capita, kg 1 2 8 58 558 675 712 83 873 934 99 139 184 1124 8 6 4 3,2 3,1 3,8 4, 4,5 5, 5,3 5,7 6, 6,4 6,6 4 2 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 PVC consumption in Eastern Europe, 24 PVC consumption in Eastern Europe, 21 Baltic States 2% Czech Rep 7% Ukraine 8% Slovakia 3% Romania 6% Macedonia 1% Croatia 1% Belarus 3% Slovenia 3% Bulgaria 2% Serbia and Montenegro 4% Hungary 13% Poland 46% Belarus 2% Baltic States 2% Bulgaria 2% Czech Rep 6% Ex-Yugoslavia Ukraine 11% 14% Hungary 11% Slovakia 4% Romania 6% Poland 42% Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC
Eastern Europe: PVC trade Eastern Europe. PVC market, KT PVC import by countries, KT 1 8 6 4 Production Import Export 832 849 791 788 622 638 654 584 496 445 377 391 932 564 725 6 5 4 3 2 Byelarus' Bulgaria Ex-Yugoslavia Hungary Baltic States Poland Romania Slovakia Ukraine Czech Rep 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 21 22 23 24 PVC export by countries, KT PVC import into Turkey, KT 8 6 Byelarus' Bulgaria Ex-Yugoslavia Hungary Baltic States Poland Romania Slovakia Ukraine Czech Rep 8 6 435 478 498 547 596 645 694 4 2 4 2 264 218 286 343 2 21 22 23 24 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC
CEE: balance of PVC production 15 12 9 131 1454 PVC/VCM capacities, 24, KT PVC VCM 12 1 8 832 743 PVC/VCM production, KT PVC production 791 77 937 788 849 81 VCM production 173 932 966 123 6 6 3 33 325 3 36 25 23 16 15 152 12 8 1 132 4 Total Borsodchem Anwil Oltchim NCHZ Petkim Kalush Spolana 4 2 2 21 22 23 24 25 Market of chlorine, KT Market of caustic, KT 1 4 1 2 1 1 132 Production Import Export 1 6 1 11 1 241 1 18 1 4 1 2 1 1 258 Production Import Export 1 346 1 383 1 234 1 147 8 6 4 2 8 12 13 139 174 187 18 112 19 116 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 8 6 4 2 429 538 494 381 423 244 267 267 236 227 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC
CEE: balance without Kalush VCM capacities utilization in CEЕ, % PVC/VCM production, KT 1% 8% 88% 89% 9% 96% 95% 96% 97% 99% 98% 99% 98% 1 8 825 PVC 788 784 734 699 69 VCM 845 764 929 955 837 839 6% 6 4% 4 2% 2 % 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 2 21 22 23 24 25 VCM deliveries from Kalush, 24 (223 КТ) VCM deliveries from Kalush, 25 (184 КТ) Slovakia 7% Poland 11% Greece 1% Turkey 3% Portugal 3% Romania 28% Greece 1% Slovakia 4% Poland 7% Turkey 4% Portugal 3% Romania 44% Hungary 47% Hungary 28% Source: MRC
Poland: PVC consumption PVC consumption in Poland, KT PVC consumption in Poland per capita, kg 5 4 3 291 268 35 328 376 399 418 437 45 461 472 15 1 7,6 7, 8, 8,6 9,8 1,5 11, 11,5 11,8 12,1 12,4 2 5 1 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 5 4 3 2 PVC-S consumption by markets, KT pipes films/sheets cable profile 3 2 1 274 146 129 Poland. PVC market, KT Production Import Export 268 249 256 24 226 198 174 159 126 132 116 117 1 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC
Poland: balance of PVC production Production, КТ 24 6 Caustic 434 5 Chlorine 394 4 3 Plock: ethylene capacities increase from 36 КТ up to 66 КТ HDPE capacities increase by 25 КТ VCM 254 PVC 268 2 1 Ethylene 123 Compounds 68 % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Source: MRC Capacities utilization,%
Hungary: PVC consumption PVC end consumption in Hungary, KT PVC consumption per capita, kg 2 15 15 1 96 98 11 13 14 96 97 98 99 1 11 1 9,4 9,6 9,9 1,2 1,3 9,5 9,6 9,7 9,8 9,9 1, 5 5 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 PVC-S consumption by markets, KT Hungary. PVC market, KT 9 pipes films/sheets Coatings Profiles 3 Production Import Export 264 267 275 268 272 212 229 219 233 216 6 2 3 1 44 49 58 59 63 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 2 21 22 23 24 Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC
Hungary: balance of PVC production Capacities, КТ 4 27 PVC 4 КТ 3 VCM 35 КТ 2 Tiszaújváros Ethylene: 62 КТ LDPE: 12 КТ / HDPE: 4 КТ Caustic 23 КТ Ethylene 15 КТ Chlorine 21 КТ 1 VCM 5 КТ Kalush VCM? Compounds 5 КТ Finished articles 4 КТ % 2% 4% 6% 8% 1% Capacities utilization,% Source: MRC
Romania: balance of PVC market PVC end consumption in Romania, KT PVC consumption per capita, kg 1 5 36 39 42 5 54 56 6 68 76 83 89 5 4 3 2 1,6 1,7 1,9 2,3 2,5 2,6 2,8 3,2 3,6 4, 4,3 1 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 Romania. PVC market, KT Profile consumption, КТ 25 2 15 1 Production Import Export 185 163 145 132 136 135 115 96 225 197 7 6 5 4 3 24 31 36 41 49 56 61 5 9 11 14 15 17 2 21 22 23 24 2 1 15 1 6 7 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 Source: Harriman Chemsult, MRC
Romania: ethylene shortage Capacities, КТa 2 21 22 23 24 25 21 Chlorine 186 186 186 186 186 186 186 VCM 16 16 16 16 16 2 36 PVC 17 17 17 225 225 25 35 Caustic soda 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 VCM to buy 1 1 1 65 65 59-1 Ethylene to buy 72 72 72 72 72 9 162 Production of Petrom, KT Ethylene Polyethylene Acrylonitrile Propylene Source: Oltchim, Petrom, MRC 5 4 3 2 1 2 21 22 23 24 25
Dioki: the VCM plan Production of Dioki, KT Capacities of Dioki, KT 25 LDPE (Okiten) LDPE (Dinalen) HI & GP PS EPS 6 LDPE HI & GP PS PVC Ethylene VCM 2 5 15 4 3 1 2 5 1 2 21 22 23 24 25 plan 2 21 22 23 24 25 plan Source: Dioki
Petkim: without changes up to 28 Source: Petkim
Kalush: will PVC project be realized? Source: MRC Product VCM Export 24, MT 222 958 Propylene 16 992 HDPE 94 963 Benzene 39 895 Ethylene 25 776 Caustic 23 62 3 2 28 Ethylene, KT 227 234 2 3 15 12 173 VCM, KT 236 195 15 75 7 Caustic, KT 82 118 +91 15 94 75 62 Chlorine, KT 73 14 +8 91 1 22 23 24 25 22 23 24 25 22 23 24 25 22 23 24 25
Russian market: Consumption and Prices LDPE market HDPE market KT 6 + USD 41* USD 12 KT 6 + USD 151* USD 13 4 2 6 4 2 65 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 KT 6 Polypropylene market Polystyrene market USD KT + USD 94* 13 3 - USD 1** USD 14 4 2 65 15 7 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 * Russia: H1 Domestic prices free of VAT compared to H1 26 WE prices (CMAI) ** Russian and WE prices for GPPS Source: MRC
Russia: PVC consumption 7 KT 25-28, AAGR - 12% 6 5 Source: MRC 4 3 1999-24, AAGR - 24% 2 1 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Russia: drivers of PVC market growth 35 175 Import of finished articles from PVC, KT 317 181 23 215 235 Import of finished articles from PVC, 24,% other profiles 11% sheets, films 11% pipes 5% others 3% flooring 27% 21 22 23 24 25 films 2% window profiles 23% 8 Import of equipment for PVC processing, items 1 Investments into processing of PVC, mln. USD 96 4 686 634 578 417 252 339 2 21 22 23 24 25 5 89 73 63 23 17 2 21 22 23 24 25 Source: MRC
Investments into processing of PVC 14 KT /EUR 3 mln. November 25 15 KT /EUR 1 mln. 14 KT /EUR 13 mln. 12 KT/ EUR 11 mln. Total: 65 KT/ EUR 74 mln. 1 KT /EUR 1 mln. Source: MRC
Russia: PVC market till 212 КТ 11 1 9 Bashim? Lukoil? Sayansk? Sibur? Nikos? + 28 КТа Consumption 8 Capacities 2 КТ 7 6 3 КТ Postponed demand 5 4 1 КТ 3 2 Domestic PVC Import PVC Imported goods from PVC 1 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 * PVC capacities utilization in 25-98% Source: MRC * Current additional margin of PVC producer - USD15
Thank you! Sergey Yaremenko, Managing Director, Market Report Company syaremenko@market-cis.com; www.mrcchemical.com Moscow +7 495 543 91 94; Kiev +38 44 24 82 35