Moving Forward On Vehicle Pollution Control In China May 12, 2010 Ray Minjares Michael P. Walsh International Council on Clean Transportation 1
International Council on Clean Transportation The goal of the ICCT is to dramatically reduce conventional pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from personal, public and goods transportation in order to improve air quality and human health, and mitigate climate change. http://www.theicct.org/ Slide 2
Air Pollution Causes Serious Health WHO Concludes ~ 800,000 Premature Deaths Each Year From Urban PM; Most in Asia Numerous Studies in Europe & US Consistently Link PM With Premature Deaths, Hospital Admissions, Asthma Attacks, Etc. No Evidence of a Threshold PAPA Project Indicates Similar Effects in Asian Cities Ozone, NO 2, Various Toxics Also Serious Health Concerns Concerns 3
Health Impacts of Air Pollution Premature Deaths Cancer Developmental Effects Hospitalization Asthma Attacks and Bronchitis 4
Health Impacts Clearly Linked To Traffic Over the past decade, dozens of studies from all over the world have shown that spending time in close proximity to heavy traffic is associated with a wide range of morbidity effects, as well as increased mortality
For Example: Traffic Associated Decreases in Lung Function (1500 children followed 8 years) Percent Decrease (FEV 1 ) 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6-7 18 years of age Difference after 8 years growth * * * Freeway Distance <500 m 500-1000 m 1000-1500 m *Statistically significant (p<.05) Gauderman, et al. (2007) Lancet, 369: 571-577.
PM Air Pollution: A Problem Worldwide Ambient Levels of Particulate Matter Exceed Current WHO Air Quality Guidelines Especially in Some Asian (and Chinese) Countries ASIA World Health Organization 2006
Increased Risk of Premature Mortality Due To 10µg/m 3 PM PM2.5 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% All Causes Pulmonary Lung Cancer 2% 1% 0% Journal of American Medical Association, March 2002 8
China Has Acted: Key Milestones In Mobile Source Emission Control In China 1983: First motor vehicle exhaust emissions standards adopted 1987: Enactment of the China Clean Air Law (CCA) Provided legislative basis for mobile source emissions control but authority to regulate vehicular emissions is dispersed 1995: Revision of the CAA State Council given the authority to regulate mobile source emissions 1999: Beijing and Shanghai implemented emission standards comparable to Euro 1/I Unleaded gasoline supply to Beijing 2000: Revision of the CCA Clear MEP authority to set emission standards; city/regional standards must be more stringent and be approved by MEP Emission limits set based on ambient air quality as well as economic and technological considerations Required in-use vehicles to meet emissions standards 2000: Leaded gasoline phase out nationwide LDV and HDV China1/I standards went into effect 2003: Motorcycles/moped Euro 1 standard went into effect 2004: LDV and HDV China 2/II standards went into effect 2005: Roadmap for LDV Euro 3 & 4 standards and HDV China III, VI, V standards announced; Rural vehicles and in-use testing emissions limits and testing methods announced. 2007: China 3/III standards went into effect for all LDVs and diesel HDVs Nonroad China I and II standards and MC China III standards announced
Vehicle Standards Implementation Timeline HDV emission standards production, sales and registration LDV emission standards production, sales and registration Motorcycle emission standards production, sales and registration
Fuel Standards Implementation Timeline Onroad diesel fuel sulfur content (ppm) * Sulfur limits for super, premium and regular diesel fuel ** No intermediate local standard was announced before the advanced implementation of China III (50-ppm sulfur) diesel standard in Shanghai in 2009; but diesel sulfur content should have come down to below 2000 ppm (probably around 1000 ppm or less) a few years before 2009. Onroad gasoline fuel sulfur content (ppm) Slide 11
China Has Made Great Progress Trends in Passenger Car Exhaust Emissions Standards NOx Emissions Standards Grams/Kilometer 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 USA EU China Beijing 0 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
Premature Deaths Prevented By Current Vehicle Pollution Control Program (thousands) 120 110 100 80 60 40 30 20 6.3 0 2000 2005 2010
Because of the Current and Anticipated High Growth China Must Do Much More To Constrain Vehicle Pollution CHINA DAILY, December 8, 2009 China Leads The World in Auto Sales, Production Glo b a l Tr e n d s In Mo t o r Ve h icle (Ca r s, Tr u ck s & Bu se s)p r o d u ct io n Millions 60 50 40 30 20 10 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 R-square = 0.951 # pts = 53 y = -1.8e+009 + 9.28e+005x 14
The Most Serious Challenge Climate Change
China Has Also Acted on Fuel Economy (And in effect Carbon Dioxide) ACTUAL FLEET AVERAGE GHG EMISSIONS DATA THROUGH MY2008 AND NEAREST TARGETS ENACTED OR PROPOSED THEREAFTER BY REGION GRAMS CO2 PER KILOMETER (NEDC TEST CYCLE) 270 250 230 210 190 170 150 130 110 CHINA AUSTRALIA Solid dots and lines: actual data Hollow dots and dashed lines: nearest targets enacted Smaller hollow dots and dotted lines: proposed targets UNITED STATES CALIFORNIA SOUTH KOREA JAPAN EUROPEAN UNION 90 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Carbon Dioxide is Not The Whole Story!
Diesel Vehicles and Engines are Ideal Candidates for Black Carbon Control Very high ratio of Black Carbon to Organic Carbon Ubiquitous Control Technology Exists Substantial Health Co- Benefits
The Solution Exists: Diesel Particulate Filters (DPFs) Trapped Soot Cell Plugs Exhaust Out (CO 2, H 2 O) Exhaust In (PM, CO, HC) *Removes 90+% BC, PM; also HC and CO *Requires Ultralow Sulfur Diesel (ULSD) 19
Dealing With Existing Vehicles
Potential For Cleaning Up Existing Diesel Vehicles Vehicles Covered On Road 1994 to 2006 model year medium and heavy trucks off road diesels at 75 horsepower or higher and meeting at least Tier 2 emissions standards Reduce Black Carbon Emissions (assuming a 100 year GWP of 680) by about 30 million metric tons CO2Eq in 2020 at a total cost of about $69 billion. Over the 20 year period from 2010 to 2030, about 360 million tons of CO2Eq Black Carbon would be eliminated by this effort. Much Greater CO2Eq Using 20 Year GWP Health Benefits Outweigh Costs
China Efforts To Clean Up Existing Diesels Beijing Retrofitted ~ 8000 Vehicles Scrapped 104,000 Light and Heavy Duty Vehicles in 2009; Aiming for 40K More by May, 2010 Estimate ~ 50% Really Scrapped National MEP Wants to Scrap All Pre Euro III Diesels by 2015
Three Scrappage Scenarios For Heavy Trucks and Large Buses Were Analyzed Scenario #1 15% scrappage and replacement of yellow sticker vehicles in Year 1 Replacement Vehicles Meet China III Emissions Scenario #2 Scrap and replace all yellow sticker vehicles by 2015 Replacement Vehicles Meet China III Emissions The same percentage of vehicles are scrapped every year Scenario #3 Scrap and replace all yellow sticker vehicles by 2015 Replacement Vehicles Meet China IV Emissions The same percentage of vehicles are scrapped every year
Emissions Reductions From Scrappage Options (Metric Tons) NOx Thousands PM Thousands 2000 1500 524422 1536694 664528 800 700 600 500 1000 500 0 NOx PM 41655 29972 496914 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 400 300 200 100 0
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