OSEA DELEGATES MARKET BRIEFING Tuesday, 29 th November 2016 Oil And Gas Sector In Indonesia OPPORTUNITIES IN A CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT David Braithwaite, MBE President Director PT Q Energy South East Asia Founding Chairman of Britcham Energy Focus Group
UPSTREAM OIL AND GAS
National Oil and Gas Reserves Conventional oil and gas reserves are spread across the country, oil is dominant in West and Gas is more dominant in East Source: IPA/SKK MIGAS
Exploration in Indonesia has Underperformed; The Outlook for Future Activity is Challenging Reserves are declining (especially oil) and less than half of production has been replaced; limited new licensing activity Source: IPA/Wood Mackenzie
Declining Reserves Source: Various sources (PwC Investor Survey of Indonesian Oil and Gas Industry, May 2016)
Indonesia Oil & Gas Production Profile 1985 to 2025 Oil production is past its peak and is in decline and gas production will start to decline post 2020 Source: IPA/SKK MIGAS
Unconventional Oil and Gas Resources (CBM and Shale Hydrocarbons) Significant resources of CBM and Shale Gas but still at an early stage of definition and development Coal Bed Methane (Coal Seam Gas) Resource estimate in basins: 453 Tcf Shale Hydrocarbon Resource estimate in basins: 574 Tcf Resource estimate in existing Working Areas: 112 Tcf 22 WK = 43.601 Tcf 32 WK = 94.362 Tcf Resource estimate in existing Working Areas: Gas: 71.7 Tcf Oil: 4.29 Bbo Source: IPA/SKK MIGAS-August 2015
Growing Shortfall of Domestic Oil and Gas Supply versus Demand This is generating concerns about future energy security Mboe/d 6,000 Projected Indonesian oil and gas supply vs. demand (2000 2030) High-case 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 Mid-case Low-Case 3.9 Mboe/d Undeveloped How to close a gap that could exceed 3Mboe/d by 2030? 1,000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 Supply-demand gap likely to grow Indonesia needs to mobilise all energy resources 2020 2025 Under Development Producing Source: IPA/Boston Consulting Group
Changes in Oil and Gas Production over Next 10 Years Production forecast shows it is moving from oil to gas, from west to east, and from onshore to offshore. New infrastructure is needed to bring gas to markets Production today Production in 2025 East D e e p e r Sources Source: IPA/Rystad Energy BCG Infrastructure to be extended and developed
Upstream Oil and Gas Regulatory Issues Opportunities New exploration incentives: Exempt from: o Import VAT o Import duty o Domestic VAT DMO Holidays Exemption from land and building tax at exploration stage Special treatment for deepwater remote and marginal areas (expected): Longer exploration period Tax and DMO holidays More favourable production split Source: Q Energy
Regulatory Issues Challenges PSC extensions: Regulation issued in 2015 but still uncertainty Fiscal uncertainty (assume and discharge): Prior to 2010 PSContractors did not pay additional taxes and fees Draft revision of Oil and Gas Law: Pertamina likely to have first right of refusal on new acreage Source: Q Energy
DOWNSTREAM OIL
Supply & Demand Forecast: Oil Fuels + Crude Oil (No New Refineries) Imports of oil increasing rapidly 2025 relative to 2013 Oil Fuels / Biofuels Demand Increase = 100% Oil Fuels Imports Increase = 185% Oil Fuels + Crude Oil imports supply 83% of total Oil Fuels demand Source: DEN, ESDM, BPH MIGAS, Pertamina, Synergy DSS/Q Energy
Need to Increase Operational Oil Product Reserves Additional OPR Requirements to Year 2025 +100% All existing Oil Fuels storage will be 100% occupied by year 2017 +260% Existing LPG storage is 100% occupied - CRITICAL SHORTAGE! +100% Existing Crude Oil storage is 100% occupied Source: Synergy DSS/Q Energy
(1) Reserves can be either Crude Oil or Oil Fuels products or a combination of both. Source: Synergy DSS/ Q Energy
Need to Establish Energy Buffer Reserves: Phase 1-30 Days Storage, Reserves and Costs up to 2025 Source: Synergy DSS/ Q Energy
Indonesia: Oil Refining Capacity Current status: Big shortfall of oil refining capacity - Last new refinery built >20 years ago - Current capacity: 830,000 bpd = requires 52% of domestic needs to be imported - Forecast demand by 2025: 2,280,000 bpd = requires 64% to be imported Source: Q Energy/Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Directorate General Oil and Gas
Indonesia: Oil Refining Capacity Steps being taken to reduce oil product imports Pertamina upgrading refineries - Cilacap (Central Java) (Saudi Aramco) - Balikpapan (East Kalimantan) - Dumai (Sumatra) (Saudi Aramco??) - Balongan (West Java) (Saudi Aramco??) Pertamina to build new refineries - Bontang (East Kalimantan) - Tuban (East Java) (Rosneft) But progress has been very slow.. Source: Q Energy
Indonesia: Oil Refining Capacity New opportunity for Private Sector (Ministerial Regulation No. 35 of 2016 signed 10 November 2016) - Fiscal and non-fiscal incentives - Crude oil can be sourced from domestic or import - Output prioritized for domestic market - No obligation to partner with Pertamina - No obligation to sell to Pertamina Source: Q Energy
Downstream Oil Regulatory Issues Opportunities Refineries open to private investors Big investment in oil storage needed (for operational and strategic reserves) Challenges Draft revision of Oil and Gas Law: New Oil Aggregator may restrict private sector opportunities Pertamina dominance: Major market share in all oil sectors Source: Q Energy
MIDSTREAM/ DOWNSTREAM GAS
Existing Infrastructure Pipeline (2014) Legend Existing Transmission Pipeline Existing Distribution Pipeline Existing Dedicated Upstream Pipeline Kategori Period I Period II Period III 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 Open Access 3.665 4.165 4.556 4.832 5.032 6.735 6.735 9,315 12,580 Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Directorate General Oil and Gas, Infrastructure Roadmap 2015-2025
Roadmap Pipeline (2025) Legend Existing Transmission Pipeline Existing Distribution Pipeline Existing Dedicated Upstream Pipeline Kategori Trans-Sumatera Pipeline Trans-Jawa Pipeline Period I Period II Period III 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 Open Access 3.665 4.165 4.556 4.832 5.032 6.735 6.735 9,315 12,580 Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Directorate General Oil and Gas, Infrastructure Roadmap 2015-2025
Regasification (Land Based) 2014-2030 Kriteria penentuan lokasi land based: Kota pantai yang masih mengunakan PLTD Pelabuhan-pelabuhan (SPBG/Landbased) Land based: 61 Units Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Directorate General Oil and Gas, Infrastructure Roadmap 2015-2025
Regasification (FSRU) 2014-2030 Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Directorate General Oil and Gas, Infrastructure Roadmap 2015-2025
Virtual Pipeline for Gas Power Plant in Central Part of Indonesia PLTG/MG Minahasa Peaker 150 MW HUB PLTMG Tahuna 10 MW MPP Tobelo 10 MW PLTMG Malifut Peaker 5 MW PLTG/MG Gorontalo Peaker 100 MW MPP Sulbagut (Amurang) 100 MW 978 NM 46 MMSCFD MPP Malut (Ternate) 30 MW MPP Sofifi 10 MW HUB PLTMG Bima 50 MW PLTMG Sumbawa 50 MW MPP Lombok 50 MW PLTGU Lombok Peaker 150 MW MPP Sulsel (Tello) 50 MW PLTGU Makassar Peaker 450 MW PLTGU Sulsel Peaker 450 MW 1.377 NM 140 MMSCFD PLTMG Selayar 10 MW MPP Waingapu 10 MW MPP Kolaka Utara 5 MW MPP Sultra (Kendari) 50 MW MPP Bombana 10 MW PLTMG Bau-Bau 30 MW 990 NM 217.61 MMSCFD PLTMG Maumere Peaker 40 MW MPP Flores 20 MW MPP Wangi-Wangi 5 MW PLTMG Alor 10 MW MPP NTT (Kupang) 30 MW PLTMG Kupang Peaker 40 MW Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Directorate General Oil and Gas, Infrastructure Roadmap 2015-2025
Indonesia Gas Balance 2015-2030 MMSCFD DESCRIPTION 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 I. DEMAND A. CONTRACTED DEMAND DOMESTIC Lifting and Own Used 571 512 486 437 451 418 389 167 167 157 174 170 173 169 141 110 Fertilizer and Petrochemical 916 887 799 575 369 287 169 105 58 58 49 29 14 5 1 0 Electricity 1,687 1,255 1,228 1,113 859 657 553 553 398 391 357 175 172 172 130 126 Industry 1,616 1,461 1,383 1,134 1,149 1,043 983 931 849 417 417 410 410 120 20 20 Transportation 30 25 20 12 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 City Gas 6 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EXPORT 2,786 2,561 2,464 2,010 2,041 1,975 1,606 1,614 1,311 1,006 948 857 786 777 562 562 TOTAL 7,612 6,705 6,382 5,282 4,871 4,380 3,700 3,370 2,783 2,029 1,945 1,641 1,555 1,243 854 818 B. COMMITTED DEMAND DOMESTIC Lifting and Own Used 11 75 83 113 124 144 171 391 391 388 388 388 388 388 389 390 Fertilizer 8 30 283 508 623 887 1,004 1,069 1,116 1,116 1,125 1,145 1,159 1,169 1,157 1,158 Electricity 641 930 1,024 1,038 1,385 1,485 1,581 1,577 1,714 1,698 1,724 1,899 1,904 1,879 1,922 1,902 Industry 431 787 843 1,168 1,269 1,356 1,454 1,481 1,563 1,994 1,994 2,001 1,995 1,988 2,021 2,019 Transportation 12 37 51 59 68 70 72 75 78 80 83 86 89 92 96 99 City Gas 4 4 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 13 TOTAL 1,107 1,863 2,291 2,894 3,478 3,951 4,292 4,603 4,872 5,286 5,324 5,529 5,545 5,526 5,596 5,581 C. POTENTIAL DEMAND Electricity Potential for 35,000 MW 52 307 497 859 902 1,053 1,049 1,049 1,057 1,058 1,060 1,063 1,063 1,063 1,063 1,063 Industry Potential Demand 150 242 286 348 393 691 726 829 914 1,003 1,094 1,156 1,261 1,371 1,501 1,616 TOTAL 202 549 783 1,207 1,295 1,744 1,775 1,878 1,971 2,061 2,154 2,219 2,324 2,434 2,564 2,679 TOTAL A + B 8,719 8,568 8,673 8,176 8,349 8,331 7,992 7,973 7,655 7,315 7,269 7,170 7,100 6,769 6,450 6,399 TOTAL A + B + C 8,921 9,117 9,456 9,383 9,644 10,075 9,767 9,851 9,626 9,376 9,423 9,389 9,424 9,203 9,014 9,078 II. SUPPLY A. EXISTING SUPPLY 6,578 6,705 6,227 5,529 5,026 4,500 4,222 3,914 3,584 2,920 2,268 2,035 2,030 1,719 1,548 1,167 B. TOTAL PROJECT SUPPLY 327 933 1,769 2,211 2,446 2,864 3,092 3,412 3,333 3,108 4,099 3,889 3,319 3,025 2,753 2,407 C. POTENTIAL SUPPLY 2 17 47 44 237 247 264 250 261 318 313 137 1,103 1,079 1,057 1,042 TOTAL A + B 6,905 7,638 7,996 7,740 7,472 7,364 7,314 7,326 6,917 6,028 6,367 5,924 5,349 4,744 4,301 3,574 TOTAL A + B + C 6,907 7,655 8,043 7,784 7,709 7,611 7,578 7,576 7,178 6,346 6,680 6,061 6,452 5,823 5,358 4,616 D. IMPORT 0 0 0 0 1,777 2,263 2,226 1,902 1,920 2,374 2,304 2,988 2,363 2,601 2,610 3,267 Source: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Indonesia Gas Balance 2015-2030
Midstream/Downstream Gas Regulatory/Policy Issues Opportunities Small scale LNG for distributed power Big expansion in gas infrastructure needed (to connect remote fields to markets) Gas seen as being a transition fuel from high carbon-emitting fuels (coal and oil) to renewable energy Source: Q Energy
Midstream/Downstream Gas Regulatory/Policy Issues Challenges Draft revision of Oil and Gas Law: New Gas Aggregator may limit private sector opportunities LNG import uncertainty: No licences issued yet and process not defined Gas pricing: Current pricing highly regulated and unpredictable Source: Q Energy
SUMMARY: CHALLENGES Oil and Gas Upstream Oil Downstream Gas Midstream/ Downstream - PSC extensions - Fiscal uncertainty - Oil and Gas Law revision - Pertamina dominance - Oil and Gas Law revision - LNG imports - Pricing - Oil and Gas Law revision Source: Q Energy
SUMMARY: OPPORTUNITIES Oil and Gas Upstream Oil Downstream Gas Midstream/ Downstream - New Incentives: - Exploration - Deepwater - Remote - Marginal - CBM, Shale - New Refineries - Oil Storage - Small scale LNG - Gas infrastructure - Transition fuel Source: Q Energy
For further information (to explore the opportunities or assess the challenges) Please contact: David Braithwaite President Director PT. Q Energy South East Asia UOB Plaza, 30 th Floor, Unit 02 Jl. M. H. Thamrin Kav. 8 10, Jakarta 10230 Indonesia P: +62 21 3000 7814 F: +62 21 3000 7813 E: davidjb@cbn.net.id / davidjbraithwaite@gmail.com W: www.qenergy.org