Natural Resources Canada Office of Energy Efficiency 580 Booth Street Ottawa, Ontario

Prepared For: Natural Resources Canada Office of Energy Efficiency 580 Booth Street Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0E4 Prepared By Consultants Inc. 11657 Summit Crescent Delta, BC Canada, V4E 2Z2 Date: March 31, 2009

HER MAJESTY THE QUEEN IN RIGHT OF CANADA 2009

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The GHGenius model has been developed for Natural Resources Canada over the past nine years. It is based on the 1998 version of Dr. Mark Delucchi s Lifecycle Emissions Model (LEM). GHGenius is capable of analyzing the energy balance and emissions of many contaminants associated with the production and use of traditional and alternative transportation fuels. GHGenius is capable of estimating life cycle emissions of the primary greenhouse gases and the criteria pollutants from combustion sources. The specific gases that are included in the model include: Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), Methane (CH 4 ), Nitrous oxide (N 2 O), Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-12), Hydro fluorocarbons (HFC-134a), The CO 2 -equivalent of all of the contaminants above. Carbon monoxide (CO), Nitrogen oxides (NOx), Non-methane organic compounds (NMOCs), weighted by their ozone forming potential, Sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), Total particulate matter. The model is capable of analyzing the emissions from conventional and alternative fuelled internal combustion engines or fuel cells for light duty vehicles, for class 3-7 medium-duty trucks, for class 8 heavy-duty trucks, for urban buses and for a combination of buses and trucks, and for light duty battery powered electric vehicles. There are over 200 vehicle and fuel combinations possible with the model. The recent strategic development plan for GHGenius identified a need for Provincial versions of GHGenius. Some of the provinces wish to develop their own versions of GHGenius so that they can establish the default values for various fuels. This has been accomplished by the addition of a series of default buttons on the Input Sheet. These buttons change the model to the appropriate region, the correct provincial power mix, the appropriate crude oil slate, and the correct petroleum product distribution patterns. Like other default values in the model the user could still overwrite the cell so that no functionality would be lost. There are default values developed for BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. The defaults have been set up for the various commercial fuels, gasoline, diesel, natural gas, LPG, ethanol, and biodiesel. In some cases, reasonable estimates will be made of what is likely to happen in the province with respect to the supply of ethanol and biodiesel. The default buttons are found in row 2 of the Input sheet in columns B to H. The user simply presses button for the province or region that they wish to model and the appropriate default values for all of the fuels discussed previously are installed. The buttons are shown in the following figure. i

Figure ES- 1 Default Buttons The typical results for gasoline for each of the provinces are summarized in the following tables. It can be seen that there are significant variations between regions with the type of crude oil produced and the refinery emissions being the most significant. The distribution scenario has a smaller impact. Table ES- 1 Gasoline Results Provinces 2009 BC Alberta Sask Manitoba Ontario Quebec Atlantic g CO 2 eq/gj Fuel dispensing 24 391 366 27 85 20 135 Fuel distribution and storage 512 708 1,015 655 495 461 960 Fuel production 11,700 11,736 11,741 11,700 12,657 12,590 12,444 Feedstock transmission 87 334 383 75 1,344 905 1,997 Feedstock recovery 11,832 11,861 11,862 11,833 7,147 7,141 4,176 Land-use changes, 33 33 33 33 13 13 1 cultivation Fertilizer manufacture 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Gas leaks and flares 2,655 2,655 2,655 2,655 1,537 1,537 1,681 CO 2, H 2 S removed from NG 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Emissions displaced -186-232 -230-175 -102-113 0 Total 26,658 27,486 27,824 26,804 23,177 22,555 21,393 Combustion 63,814 63,814 63,814 63,814 63,814 63,814 63,814 Grand Total 90,472 91,300 91,638 90,618 86,991 86,369 85,207 ii

TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... I TABLE OF CONTENTS... III LIST OF TABLES...VI LIST OF FIGURES...VII 1. INTRODUCTION... 2 1.1 SCOPE OF WORK... 4 2. CANADA... 5 2.1 CRUDE OIL... 5 2.2 REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS... 6 3. BRITISH COLUMBIA... 9 3.1 CRUDE OIL SUPPLY... 9 3.2 REFINED PRODUCTS DISTRIBUTION... 10 3.3 ELECTRIC POWER... 12 3.4 LPG AND NATURAL GAS... 12 3.5 BIOFUEL PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY... 13 3.5.1 Ethanol... 13 3.5.1.1 Wheat Ethanol... 13 3.5.1.2 Corn Ethanol... 13 3.5.1.3 Sugar Cane Ethanol... 14 3.5.2 Biodiesel... 14 3.5.2.1 Canola Biodiesel... 14 3.5.2.2 Soybean Biodiesel... 14 3.5.2.3 Tallow Biodiesel... 14 3.5.2.4 Yellow Grease... 14 4. ALBERTA... 15 4.1 CRUDE OIL SUPPLY... 15 4.2 REFINED PRODUCTS DISTRIBUTION... 16 4.3 ELECTRIC POWER... 17 4.4 LPG AND NATURAL GAS... 17 4.5 BIOFUEL PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY... 17 4.5.1 Ethanol... 17 4.5.1.1 Wheat Ethanol... 17 4.5.1.2 Corn Ethanol... 18 4.5.1.3 Sugar Cane Ethanol... 18 4.5.2 Biodiesel... 18 4.5.2.1 Canola Biodiesel... 18 4.5.2.2 Soybean Biodiesel... 18 4.5.2.3 Tallow Biodiesel... 18 4.5.2.4 Yellow Grease... 18 5. SASKATCHEWAN... 19 iii

5.1 CRUDE OIL SUPPLY... 19 5.2 REFINED PRODUCTS DISTRIBUTION... 20 5.3 ELECTRIC POWER... 21 5.4 LPG AND NATURAL GAS... 21 5.5 BIOFUEL PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY... 21 5.5.1 Ethanol... 21 5.5.1.1 Wheat Ethanol... 21 5.5.1.2 Corn Ethanol... 22 5.5.1.3 Sugar Cane Ethanol... 22 5.5.2 Biodiesel... 22 5.5.2.1 Canola Biodiesel... 22 5.5.2.2 Soybean Biodiesel... 22 5.5.2.3 Tallow Biodiesel... 22 5.5.2.4 Yellow Grease... 22 6. MANITOBA... 23 6.1 CRUDE OIL SUPPLY... 23 6.2 REFINED PRODUCTS DISTRIBUTION... 23 6.3 ELECTRIC POWER... 25 6.4 LPG AND NATURAL GAS... 25 6.5 BIOFUEL PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY... 25 6.5.1 Ethanol... 25 6.5.1.1 Wheat Ethanol... 25 6.5.1.2 Corn Ethanol... 25 6.5.1.3 Sugar Cane Ethanol... 25 6.5.2 Biodiesel... 26 6.5.2.1 Canola Biodiesel... 26 6.5.2.2 Soybean Biodiesel... 26 6.5.2.3 Tallow Biodiesel... 26 6.5.2.4 Yellow Grease... 26 7. ONTARIO... 27 7.1 CRUDE OIL SUPPLY... 27 7.2 REFINED PRODUCTS DISTRIBUTION... 28 7.3 ELECTRIC POWER... 29 7.4 LPG AND NATURAL GAS... 30 7.5 BIOFUEL PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY... 30 7.5.1 Ethanol... 30 7.5.1.1 Wheat Ethanol... 30 7.5.1.2 Corn Ethanol... 30 7.5.1.3 Sugar Cane Ethanol... 30 7.5.2 Biodiesel... 31 7.5.2.1 Canola Biodiesel... 31 7.5.2.2 Soybean Biodiesel... 31 7.5.2.3 Tallow Biodiesel... 31 7.5.2.4 Yellow Grease... 31 8. QUEBEC... 32 8.1 CRUDE OIL SUPPLY... 32 8.2 REFINED PRODUCTS DISTRIBUTION... 32 8.3 ELECTRIC POWER... 34 8.4 LPG AND NATURAL GAS... 34 iv

8.5 BIOFUEL PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY... 34 8.5.1 Ethanol... 34 8.5.1.1 Wheat Ethanol... 34 8.5.1.2 Corn Ethanol... 35 8.5.1.3 Sugar Cane Ethanol... 35 8.5.2 Biodiesel... 35 8.5.2.1 Canola Biodiesel... 35 8.5.2.2 Soybean Biodiesel... 35 8.5.2.3 Tallow Biodiesel... 35 8.5.2.4 Yellow Grease... 35 9. CANADA EAST... 36 9.1 CRUDE OIL SUPPLY... 36 9.2 REFINED PRODUCTS DISTRIBUTION... 36 9.3 ELECTRIC POWER... 37 9.4 LPG AND NATURAL GAS... 38 9.5 BIOFUEL PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY... 38 9.5.1 Ethanol... 38 9.5.1.1 Wheat Ethanol... 38 9.5.1.2 Corn Ethanol... 38 9.5.1.3 Sugar Cane Ethanol... 38 9.5.2 Biodiesel... 39 9.5.2.1 Canola Biodiesel... 39 9.5.2.2 Soybean Biodiesel... 39 9.5.2.3 Tallow Biodiesel... 39 9.5.2.4 Yellow Grease... 39 10. REGIONAL DEFAULTS... 40 10.1 CANADA WEST... 40 10.2 CANADA CENTRAL... 40 10.3 CANADA EAST... 40 10.4 CANADA AVERAGE... 40 11. OPERATION OF THE MODEL... 42 11.1 RESULTS... 43 12. REFERENCES... 45 v

LIST OF TABLES TABLE 3-1 PETROLEUM PRODUCT SALES BC... 9 TABLE 3-2 BC REFINERY CAPACITY... 9 TABLE 3-3 CRUDE OIL PIPELINE TRANSPORTATION DISTANCES... 10 TABLE 3-4 REFINED PRODUCTS PIPELINE TRANSPORTATION... 11 TABLE 3-5 REFINED PRODUCTS RAIL TRANSPORTATION... 12 TABLE 3-6 REFINED PRODUCTS BARGE TRANSPORTATION... 12 TABLE 3-7 LPG TRANSPORTATION SCENARIO... 13 TABLE 4-1 PETROLEUM PRODUCT SALES ALBERTA... 15 TABLE 4-2 ALBERTA REFINERY CAPACITY... 15 TABLE 4-3 CRUDE OIL PIPELINE TRANSPORTATION DISTANCES - ALBERTA... 15 TABLE 4-4 REFINED PRODUCTS PIPELINE TRANSPORTATION - ALBERTA... 16 TABLE 4-5 LPG TRANSPORTATION SCENARIO - ALBERTA... 17 TABLE 5-1 PETROLEUM PRODUCT SALES SASKATCHEWAN... 19 TABLE 5-2 SASKATCHEWAN REFINERY CAPACITY... 19 TABLE 5-3 CRUDE OIL PIPELINE TRANSPORTATION DISTANCES - SASKATCHEWAN.. 19 TABLE 5-4 REFINED PRODUCTS PIPELINE TRANSPORTATION - SASKATCHEWAN... 20 TABLE 5-5 LPG TRANSPORTATION SCENARIO- SASKATCHEWAN... 21 TABLE 6-1 PETROLEUM PRODUCT SALES MANITOBA... 23 TABLE 6-2 CRUDE OIL PIPELINE TRANSPORTATION DISTANCES - MANITOBA... 23 TABLE 6-3 REFINED PRODUCTS PIPELINE TRANSPORTATION - MANITOBA... 24 TABLE 6-4 LPG TRANSPORTATION SCENARIO - MANITOBA... 25 TABLE 7-1 PETROLEUM PRODUCT SALES ONTARIO... 27 TABLE 7-2 ONTARIO REFINERY CAPACITY... 27 TABLE 7-3 CRUDE OIL PIPELINE TRANSPORTATION DISTANCES - ONTARIO... 27 TABLE 7-4 REFINED PRODUCTS RAIL TRANSPORTATION - ONTARIO... 29 TABLE 7-5 REFINED PRODUCTS BARGE TRANSPORTATION - ONTARIO... 29 TABLE 7-6 REFINED PRODUCTS PIPELINE TRANSPORTATION - ONTARIO... 29 TABLE 7-7 LPG TRANSPORTATION SCENARIO - ONTARIO... 30 TABLE 8-1 PETROLEUM PRODUCT SALES QUEBEC... 32 TABLE 8-2 QUEBEC REFINERY CAPACITY... 32 TABLE 8-3 CRUDE OIL PIPELINE TRANSPORTATION DISTANCES - QUEBEC... 32 TABLE 8-4 REFINED PRODUCTS RAIL TRANSPORTATION - QUEBEC... 33 TABLE 8-5 REFINED PRODUCTS BARGE TRANSPORTATION - QUEBEC... 34 TABLE 8-6 LPG TRANSPORTATION SCENARIO - QUEBEC... 34 TABLE 9-1 PETROLEUM PRODUCT SALES ATLANTIC CANADA... 36 TABLE 9-2 ATLANTIC CANADA REFINERY CAPACITY... 36 TABLE 9-3 REFINED PRODUCTS BARGE TRANSPORTATION ATLANTIC CANADA... 37 TABLE 9-4 LPG TRANSPORTATION SCENARIO ATLANTIC CANADA... 38 TABLE 10-1 WEIGHTING FACTORS CANADA WEST... 40 TABLE 10-2 WEIGHTING FACTORS CANADA CENTRAL... 40 TABLE 10-3 WEIGHTING FACTORS CANADA... 41 TABLE 11-1 GASOLINE RESULTS PROVINCES 2009... 43 TABLE 11-2 GASOLINE RESULTS REGIONS 2009... 43 TABLE 11-3 DIESEL RESULTS 2009... 44 TABLE 11-4 DIESEL RESULTS REGIONS 2009... 44 vi

LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1-1 GHGENIUS LIFECYCLE STAGES... 4 FIGURE 2-1 CRUDE OIL PIPELINES... 5 FIGURE 2-2 CANADIAN REFINED PRODUCTS SUPPLY ORBITS... 6 FIGURE 2-3 REFINED PRODUCT PIPELINES WESTERN CANADA... 7 FIGURE 2-4 REFINED PRODUCT PIPELINES CENTRAL CANADA... 7 FIGURE 3-1 BC DISTRIBUTION TERMINALS... 11 FIGURE 4-1 ALBERTA DISTRIBUTION TERMINALS... 16 FIGURE 5-1 SASKATCHEWAN DISTRIBUTION TERMINALS... 20 FIGURE 6-1 MANITOBA DISTRIBUTION TERMINALS... 24 FIGURE 7-1 ONTARIO PRODUCT DISTRIBUTION TERMINALS... 28 FIGURE 8-1 QUEBEC DISTRIBUTION TERMINALS... 33 FIGURE 9-1 EASTERN CANADA DISTRIBUTION TERMINALS... 37 FIGURE 11-1 DEFAULT BUTTONS... 42 vii

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1. INTRODUCTION The GHGenius model has been developed for Natural Resources Canada over the past nine years. It is based on the 1998 version of Dr. Mark Delucchi s Lifecycle Emissions Model (LEM). GHGenius is capable of analyzing the energy balance and emissions of many contaminants associated with the production and use of traditional and alternative transportation fuels. GHGenius is capable of estimating life cycle emissions of the primary greenhouse gases and the criteria pollutants from combustion sources. The specific gases that are included in the model include: Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), Methane (CH 4 ), Nitrous oxide (N 2 O), Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-12), Hydro fluorocarbons (HFC-134a), The CO 2 -equivalent of all of the contaminants above. Carbon monoxide (CO), Nitrogen oxides (NOx), Non-methane organic compounds (NMOCs), weighted by their ozone forming potential, Sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), Total particulate matter. The model is capable of analyzing the emissions from conventional and alternative fuelled internal combustion engines or fuel cells for light duty vehicles, for class 3-7 medium-duty trucks, for class 8 heavy-duty trucks, for urban buses and for a combination of buses and trucks, and for light duty battery powered electric vehicles. There are over 200 vehicle and fuel combinations possible with the model. GHGenius can predict emissions for past, present and future years through to 2050 using historical data or correlations for changes in energy and process parameters with time that are stored in the model. The fuel cycle segments (system boundaries) considered in the model are as follows: Vehicle Operation Emissions associated with the use of the fuel in the vehicle. Includes all greenhouse gases. Fuel Dispensing at the Retail Level Emissions associated with the transfer of the fuel at a service station from storage into the vehicles. Includes electricity for pumping, fugitive emissions and spills. Fuel Storage and Distribution at all Stages Emissions associated with storage and handling of fuel products at terminals, bulk plants and service stations. Includes storage emissions, electricity for pumping, space heating and lighting. Fuel Production (as in production from raw materials) Direct and indirect emissions associated with conversion of the feedstock into a saleable fuel product. Includes process emissions, combustion emissions for process heat/steam, electricity generation, fugitive emissions and emissions from the life cycle of chemicals used for fuel production cycles. 2

Feedstock Transport Direct and indirect emissions from transport of feedstock, including pumping, compression, leaks, fugitive emissions, and transportation from point of origin to the fuel refining plant. Import/export, transport distances and the modes of transport are considered. Includes the energy required to build and maintain the infrastructure. Feedstock Production and Recovery Direct and indirect emissions from recovery and processing of the raw feedstock, including fugitive emissions from storage, handling, upstream processing prior to transmission, and mining. Fertilizer Manufacture Direct and indirect life cycle emissions from fertilizers, and pesticides used for feedstock production, including raw material recovery, transport and manufacturing of chemicals. This is not included if there is no fertilizer associated with the fuel pathway. Land use changes and cultivation associated with biomass derived fuels Emissions associated with the change in the land use in cultivation of crops, including N 2 O from application of fertilizer, changes in soil carbon and biomass, methane emissions from soil and energy used for land cultivation. Carbon in Fuel from Air Carbon dioxide emissions credit arising from use of a renewable carbon source that obtains carbon from the air. Leaks and flaring of greenhouse gases associated with production of oil and gas Fugitive hydrocarbon emissions and flaring emissions associated with oil and gas production. Emissions displaced by co-products of alternative fuels Emissions displaced by co-products of various pathways. System expansion is used to determine displacement ratios for co-products from biomass pathways. Vehicle assembly and transport Emissions associated with the manufacture and transport of the vehicle to the point of sale, amortized over the life of the vehicle. Materials used in the vehicles Emissions from the manufacture of the materials used to manufacture the vehicle, amortized over the life of the vehicle. Includes lube oil production and losses from air conditioning systems. 3

The main lifecycle stages are shown in the following figure. Figure 1-1 GHGenius Lifecycle Stages 1.1 SCOPE OF WORK The recent strategic development plan for GHGenius identified a need for Provincial versions of GHGenius. Some of the provinces wish to develop their own versions of GHGenius so that they can establish default values for various fuels. This can be easily be accomplished by the addition of a series of default buttons on the Input Sheet. These buttons change the model to the appropriate region, the correct provincial power mix, the appropriate crude oil slate, and the correct petroleum product distribution patterns. Like other default values in the model, the user can still overwrite the cells so that no functionality would be lost. There are default values developed for BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. The defaults have been set up for the various commercial fuels, gasoline, diesel, natural gas, LPG, some ethanol, and some biodiesel. In some cases, reasonable estimates will be made of what is likely to happen in the province with respect to the supply of ethanol and biodiesel. The version of the model that accompanies this report is 3.15. There are other changes that have been made to version 3.15 of the model to incorporate biomethane but these have their own report. 4

2. CANADA GHGenius has previously used average values for Canada for many of the modelling parameters that can be changed in the model. Given the wide variation in production and distribution practices across Canada, these average values do not always reflect the local realities. This model update is designed to provide a better picture of what the local conditions are for the main transportation fuel products used in Canada. In this section of the report and overview of the Canadian situation is provided so that some of the detail in each province can be put into the proper perspective. 2.1 CRUDE OIL Canada is an importer and exporter of crude oil and oil exports are forecast to increase in the future as oil production from the oil sands increases. In the following figure the existing crude oil pipelines are shown as solid lines and the blue dotted lines are proposed expansions. Oil can be exported from Canada through pipelines from BC, Alberta, and Manitoba. Oil can be imported through the Portland, Maine to Montreal pipeline and through pipelines from the US Gulf Coast. Figure 2-1 Crude Oil Pipelines 5

2.2 REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS Within Canada there are four distinct petroleum product supply orbits as shown in the following figure. There is very little overlap between most of the orbits. The western and Atlantic orbits correspond roughly to the western Canada and eastern Canada regions in GHGenius. The combination of the Ontario and Quebec supply orbits is roughly equivalent to central Canada in GHGenius. Figure 2-2 Canadian Refined Products Supply Orbits Within the western Canadian supply orbit products move from the refineries to major distribution terminals by truck, rail and pipeline. Edmonton is the major refining hub of this network with pipelines moving products west, south and east. Refineries in BC and Saskatchewan supplement the Alberta production. The supply orbit is kept in balance with occasional imports through the port of Vancouver and exports through Vancouver, Regina, and Winnipeg. The pipeline network is shown in the following figure. 6

Figure 2-3 Refined Product Pipelines Western Canada p Edmonton Saskatoon Winnipeg SPL Airport Milden TMPL APPL WPPL Enbridge Line 1 Co-op Regina Kamloops TME Vancouver Airport Calgary Gretna Notes: 1) TMPL - ships crude and clean products in the same pipeline (24 inch) 2) Enbridge - Line 1 transports synthetic crude, NGL's and clean products. Products are delivered to terminals at Milden (no truck rack), Regina and Gretna (20 inch). Injections made at Edmonton & Regina. 3) APPL - 100 % clean product pipeline from Edmonton to Calgary (10 inch) 4) SPL- 100 % clean products from Milden to Saskatoon 5) WPPL- 100 % clean products from Gretna to Winnipeg via 2 pipelines ( 8 inch/ 10 inch) The refineries in central Canada are also connected by a pipeline network with refineries in Sarnia and Nanticoke Ontario and Montreal Quebec being connected to distribution terminal throughout the region by several pipeline systems as show in the following figure. Figure 2-4 Refined Product Pipelines Central Canada Ottawa London Sun Canadian North Toronto Sarnia SPPL Belleville Kingston Maitland Mirabel Sun Canadian Toronto Airport Montreal Hamilton TNPL Oakville TNPL TNPL-East Line Cornwall Dorval Nanticoke Notes: 1) Details much more complex than shown in the Toronto and Montreal areas 2) All pipelines only move clean products. 3) Three (3) pipelines originate from Sarnia.Two (2) are operated by Sun Canadian and the 3rd by Imperial Oil. 4) The Trans- Northern Pipeline (TNPL) East line section transports products from Montreal to Ottawa and the Toronto area. Partly owned by Petro-Canada, Shell Canada Products and Imperial Oil The supply system in Atlantic Canada relies on marine distribution of the products rather than on pipeline systems. More details on the logistics systems in each province are described in the following sections of the report. While it is possible to be reasonably accurate with respect to the distances involved in most of the modes of transport, the volumes of products moved by each mode is generally confidential information. We have estimated the volumes based on an understanding of the logistics and the population served by each distribution point. This assumes that the volume of fuel is directly proportional to population, which may not always 7

be the case. After all of the regional data is developed new values for the average of Canada are developed for the model. 8

3. BRITISH COLUMBIA British Columbia refineries produce some transportation fuels but the province is dependent on imports to meet its total transportation fuel requirement. The transportation fuel sales in relation to the total petroleum product sales in BC for 2008 are shown in the following table (Statistics Canada, 2009). This data is only used to provide the BC weighting when calculating the regional or national averages. Table 3-1 Petroleum Product Sales BC Volume, 1,000 cubic metres Gasoline 4,530.0 Diesel Fuel 3,732.1 Low Sulphur Diesel 3,187.9 LPG 69.3 Total Sales all products 11,978.4 3.1 CRUDE OIL SUPPLY There are two refineries operating within British Columbia and together they supply about a third of the refined product demand in the province. The BC refineries process mostly BC crude oil that is shipped by pipeline from the Peace River region to Prince George and Kamloops where it is combined with crude oil from Alberta for the final pipeline leg to Burnaby. The 2008 refinery capacity is shown in the following table (NRCan, 2009). Table 3-2 BC Refinery Capacity Location Capacity (1,000 m 3 /d) Capacity (1,000 m 3 /y) Chevron Burnaby 8.7 3,000 Husky Prince George 1.9 665 Total British Columbia 10.7 3,665 Within GHGenius the crude oil refined can only be broken into three regions and thus the oil refined in BC refineries is assumed to be the same average crude oil refined in western Canada. Crude oil transportation distances for BC must be calculated for both the oil refined in BC and for the refined oil products imported from Alberta. Statistics Canada data on oil refined in BC is not available, as it is included with the data for Saskatchewan in order to protect confidentiality. The assumption will be that one third of the demand is supplied by local refineries and two thirds by imports from Alberta. It is recognized that some petroleum product is imported into BC on an as needed basis. These volumes can fluctuate significantly from year to year. It is possible to include petroleum products imports in GHGenius calculations by entering the import fractions and origins on sheet Z but given that the quality of data for many of these petroleum product exporters (other than the US) is not very high, the BC default scenario will be for products produced in Canada. 9

The transportation distances for the crude oil are summarized in the following table. Table 3-3 Crude Oil Pipeline Transportation Distances % of supply Distance, km Weighted Distance Prince George 7 470 33 Burnaby 28 1250 350 Edmonton 65 400 260 Total 100 643 643 Some crude oil may also be transported by truck from the well to a pipeline receipt point. It will be assumed that the weighted average of this movement is 10 km. 3.2 REFINED PRODUCTS DISTRIBUTION BC has one of the more complex distribution networks for refined petroleum products in Canada. The two BC refineries supply product mostly in their local areas with most of the balance of the BC demand supplied from Edmonton via the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline with shipments to Kamloops and Vancouver and through rail shipments to Prince George, Kamloops, Vancouver and Terrace. Small amounts of products are trucked from Alberta to sites close to the provincial border. As noted earlier some product is also imported as to balance the supply and demand in western Canada. From Vancouver, product is barged to terminals on Vancouver Island and along the coast. The distribution points are shown in the following figure. 10

Figure 3-1 BC Distribution Terminals The Trans Mountain pipeline system moves about 3.8 million cubic metres of products in addition to transporting crude oil. The distance from Edmonton to Kamloops is 820 km and the distance from Edmonton to Burnaby is 1,100 km. The BC refineries do not distribute refined products through the pipelines. The refined products pipeline distances are summarized in the following table. Table 3-4 Refined Products Pipeline Transportation % of supply Distance, km Weighted Distance Edmonton to Kamloops 6 820 49 Edmonton to Burnaby 53 1,100 583 Total 59 1,071 632 Rail is used to transport product from the Edmonton refinery to terminals in Prince George, Terrace, Kamloops, and sometimes to Burnaby. These movements are summarized in the following table. 11

Table 3-5 Refined Products Rail Transportation % of supply Distance, km Weighted Distance Edmonton to Prince George 2.0 740 14.8 Edmonton to Terrace 1.3 1,300 16.9 Edmonton to Kamloops 4.0 820 32.8 Edmonton to Burnaby 2.0 1,100 22.0 Total 9.3 930 86.5 Marine barges are used to transport product from the Burnaby refinery to terminals on Vancouver Island and on the BC Coast. These movements are summarized in the following table. Table 3-6 Refined Products Barge Transportation % of supply Distance, km Weighted Distance Burnaby to Chemainus 4.8 60 2.9 Burnaby to Cowichan 6.0 80 4.8 Burnaby to Nanaimo 6.6 60 4.0 Burnaby to Port Hardy 0.3 300 0.9 Total 17.7 71 12.6 The refined products are finally distributed from the terminals to the retail outlets by truck. Given the large number of terminals in BC, it will be assumed that the trucking distances are relatively short and average 80 km for the province. 3.3 ELECTRIC POWER Electric power production in BC is mostly from hydroelectric power. The use of this power for activities in the province is set by the drop down menu in cell F30 on the Input sheet. Selecting the BC defaults will automatically select the BC electric power mix. Some activities in the model are preset to occur in other provinces so these do not change with the provincial defaults. 3.4 LPG AND NATURAL GAS LPG supply in BC for transportation use is a combination of product from local refineries and product from natural gas production that is railed in from Alberta and Northern BC. The industry prefers the product from gas processing over the refinery supplied product. We have kept the ratio of refinery supply to gas plant supply the same as the default value in the model and adjusted the transportation scenario according. The transportation assumptions are shown in the following table. 12

Table 3-7 LPG Transportation Scenario Distance Shipped, km Fraction Shipped by Mode Rail 1,000 0.86 Domestic water 100 0.10 International water 0 0.0 Pipeline 0 0.0 Truck 80 1.0 There is little regionalization that can be done for the natural gas pathway in GHGenius at the present time. LNG could be regionalized but there currently is little commercial application of this fuel in the transportation sector. 3.5 BIOFUEL PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY Relatively minor amounts of biofuels are produced in BC. This is not likely to change in the near future even though their use will be mandated in 2010. The biofuel scenarios are therefore based on imported product. 3.5.1 Ethanol Both wheat ethanol from the Canadian Prairies and corn ethanol from the US Midwest are potential supply options for BC. In both cases, the product would likely be railed in to the distribution terminals and then blended with gasoline. We have assigned a standard feedstock trucking distance of 100 km (farm to plant) to all biofuel scenarios unless there is a special circumstance that would require a different distance. Sugar cane ethanol could also be used in BC but the user will have to input the distribution assumptions for this pathway, as they are not installed with the default values. 3.5.1.1 Wheat Ethanol The wheat production and ethanol parameters are based on the western Canada average but the source of electric power is set to be Saskatchewan. It is assumed that wheat ethanol would be shipped by rail from Saskatchewan to Vancouver. This distance is 1,700 km. The only other mode that is used is the local distribution, which is set to the same 80 km as gasoline. 3.5.1.2 Corn Ethanol It is assumed that the corn ethanol is produced in the US Midwest and is shipped 2,700 km by rail. The corn producing region is set to US Central. The electric power for ethanol production is set to Saskatchewan, since this is close to the US power mix. This is a fuel pathway that is difficult to run with a single run of the model since most of the production systems happen in one country but the fuel is used in a different country. The defaults that will be installed for this system will underestimated the GHG emissions since many of the important parameters (e.g. fertilizer production) have higher emission factors in the US than in Canada. For more accurate results, users should run the model twice, first for BC to install the correct transportation assumptions and then for the US Central region to get the results for all of the activities that occur in the US. One would then merge the two data sets 13

according to which portion of the lifecycle takes place in the US and which portion is in Canada (just the fuel dispensing stage). 3.5.1.3 Sugar Cane Ethanol It is assumed that sugar cane ethanol would be shipped 200 km from the production plant to port in Brazil and then shipped 15,700 km by ship to the Port of Vancouver where it would be blended with gasoline. It would then be shipped with the gasoline the additional 80 km to the retail stations. 3.5.2 Biodiesel The modelling scenarios for the four most likely sources of biodiesel are summarized below. 3.5.2.1 Canola Biodiesel It is assumed that the canola biodiesel is produced in Alberta from western Canadian produced canola and shipped by rail to Vancouver. This transportation distance has been set to 1,100 km. The local distribution by truck is set the same as it is for diesel fuel. The use of electricity in the biodiesel production process can not be set to a different producing region than consuming region as the model is currently configured so when the BC model is selected for a fuel produced in Alberta, it will use the BC power mix and thus slightly underestimated the GHG emissions associated with biodiesel production. Multiple model runs could be undertaken by the user and the results sets merged according to the location that the activity takes place in. 3.5.2.2 Soybean Biodiesel It is assumed that soybean biodiesel will come from the US Midwest so the same 2,700 km rail distance is used. The same issues that are present for US corn ethanol apply to soybean biodiesel but because of the lower input requirements the differences between Canada and the US are not as large as they are for corn. 3.5.2.3 Tallow Biodiesel Tallow biodiesel could be produced in BC so the model has been set up for local production. The carcass transportation distance is set to 100 km by truck. The tallow is transported another 40 km to the biodiesel plant and the biodiesel is transported a total of 120 km by truck after it is produced (the 80 km after it is blended and 40 km from the biodiesel plant to the blending location). 3.5.2.4 Yellow Grease The yellow grease transportation parameters are set the same as the tallow parameters. 14

4. ALBERTA Alberta is the centre of the refining industry in western Canada. The province not only supplies all of its own transportation fuel requirements, it is also a major supplier to the rest of the provinces in the GHGenius western region in. The transportation fuel sales in relation to the total petroleum product sales in Alberta for 2008 are shown in the following table (Statistics Canada, 2009). This data is only used to provide the Alberta weighting when calculating the regional or national averages. Table 4-1 Petroleum Product Sales Alberta Volume, 1,000 cubic metres Gasoline 5,708.1 Diesel Fuel 7,008.6 Low Sulphur Diesel 5,905.4 LPG 480.3 Total sales all products 18,127.5 4.1 CRUDE OIL SUPPLY There are three full refineries operating within Alberta plus the Suncor synthetic oil upgrader that produces some diesel fuel, and together they supply all of the refined product demand in the province. The Alberta refineries process mostly Alberta crude oil that is shipped by pipeline from the producing fields to the Edmonton refineries. Table 4-2 Alberta Refinery Capacity Location Capacity (1,000 m 3 /d) Capacity (1,000 m 3 /yr) Imperial Oil Edmonton 29.7 10,400 Petro-Canada Edmonton 19.9 6,965 Shell Scotford 15.9 5,565 Suncor Ft. McMurray 3.2 1,120 Total Alberta 1,068.7 25,050 Within GHGenius the crude oil refined can only be broken into three regions and thus the oil refined in Alberta refineries is assumed to be the same average crude oil refined in western Canada. Crude oil transportation distances for Alberta are the same as assumed for the BC product that is refined in Alberta. The transportation distances for the crude oil are summarized in the following table. Table 4-3 Crude Oil Pipeline Transportation Distances - Alberta % of supply Distance, km Weighted Distance Edmonton 100 400 400 Total 100 400 400 Some crude oil may also be transported by truck from the well to a pipeline receipt point. It will be assumed that the weighted average of this movement is 10 km. 15

4.2 REFINED PRODUCTS DISTRIBUTION Alberta has a relatively simple distribution network for refined petroleum products compared to BC. Each Edmonton refineries supplies product in their local areas and they ship product from the Edmonton area to two terminals in Calgary, a distance of 330 km. This pipeline operates at full capacity during parts of the year and thus some product is trucked from Edmonton to locations between Edmonton and Calgary when pure economic suggest that it should be pipelined to Calgary and trucked from there. The capacity of the pipeline is not publicly available. The population distribution of Alberta would suggest that 50% of the petroleum products in Alberta would be pipelined between Edmonton and Calgary but given the higher level of industrial activity in northern Alberta it is assumed that only 33% of the products are pipelined. The Alberta distribution terminals are shown in the following figure. Figure 4-1 Alberta Distribution Terminals The pipeline modelling parameters are shown in the following table. Table 4-4 Refined Products Pipeline Transportation - Alberta % of supply Distance, km Edmonton to Calgary 33 330 16

Rail and marine are modes of transportation that are not significant in Alberta. The refined products are finally distributed from the terminals to the retail outlets by truck. Over 50% of the population in Alberta live in the cities of Calgary and Edmonton and thus are relatively close to the major transportation fuel distribution facilities. Another 30% of the population live in smaller urban communities and the remaining 20% live in rural areas. It will be assumed that the average trucking distance for petroleum products in Alberta is 120 km. 4.3 ELECTRIC POWER The electric power supply in Alberta is a mixture of coal, natural gas, wind, hydro and biomass. It is relatively carbon intensive. The use Alberta power mix is selected by the drop down menu in cell F30 on the Input sheet. This is done automatically when the Alberta model is chosen. 4.4 LPG AND NATURAL GAS LPG supply in Alberta for transportation use is a combination of product from local refineries and product from natural gas production. The industry prefers the product from gas processing over the refinery supplied product. We have kept the ratio of refinery supply to gas plant supply the same as the default value in the model (0.86). It is assumed that all of the LPG is trucked from the refineries and gas plants to the point of use. The same transportation distance as is used for the truck movement of gasoline and diesel is used as shown in the following table. Table 4-5 LPG Transportation Scenario - Alberta Distance Shipped, km Fraction Shipped by Mode Truck 120 1.0 There is little regionalization that can be done for the natural gas pathway in GHGenius at the present time. LNG could be regionalized but there currently is little commercial application of this fuel in the transportation sector. 4.5 BIOFUEL PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY Some biofuels are currently produced in Alberta. This may increase in the future as new programs are put into place to encourage supply and demand. The default scenarios are a combination of local production and imported products. 4.5.1 Ethanol Both wheat ethanol from the Alberta and corn ethanol from the US Midwest are potential supply options for Alberta. In both cases the product would likely be trucked or railed in to the distribution terminals and then blended with gasoline. 4.5.1.1 Wheat Ethanol The wheat production and ethanol parameters are based on the western Canada average but the source of electric power is set to be Alberta. It is assumed that wheat ethanol would be shipped by truck from the Alberta production plant to terminals in Edmonton or Calgary. 17

This distance is assumed to be 200 km. The only other mode that is used is the local distribution, which is set to the same 120 km as gasoline. 4.5.1.2 Corn Ethanol It is assumed that the corn ethanol is produced in the US Midwest and is shipped 1,900 km by rail. The corn producing region is set to US Central. The electric power for ethanol production is set to Alberta, since this is close to the US power mix. This is a fuel pathway that is difficult to run with a single run of the model since most of the production systems happen in one country but the fuel is used in a different country. The defaults that will be installed for this system will underestimated the GHG emissions since many of the important parameters (e.g. fertilizer production) have higher emission factors in the US than in Canada. Users should run the model twice, once for Alberta and once for the US Central region and merge the two data sets according to which portion of the lifecycle takes place in the US and which portion is in Canada. 4.5.1.3 Sugar Cane Ethanol It is assumed that sugar cane ethanol would be shipped 200 km from the production plant to port in Brazil and then shipped 15,700 km by ship to the Port of Vancouver where it would be loaded into rail cars and shipped an additional 1100 km to the gasoline blending point. It would then be shipped with the gasoline the additional 120 km to the retail stations. 4.5.2 Biodiesel The modelling scenarios for the four most likely sources of biodiesel are summarized below. 4.5.2.1 Canola Biodiesel It is assumed that the canola biodiesel is produced in Alberta from western Canadian produced canola and shipped by truck to Calgary or Edmonton. This transportation distance has been set to 200 km. The local distribution by truck is set the same as it is for diesel fuel (120 km). 4.5.2.2 Soybean Biodiesel It is assumed that soybean biodiesel will come from the US Midwest so the same 1,900 km rail distance is used. The same issues that are present for US corn ethanol apply to soybean biodiesel but because of the lower input requirements the differences between Canada and the US are not as large as they are for corn. 4.5.2.3 Tallow Biodiesel Tallow biodiesel could be produced in Alberta so the model has been set up for local production. The carcass transportation distance is set to 100 km by truck. The tallow is transported another 50 km to the biodiesel plant and the biodiesel is transported a total of 160 km by truck after it is produced (the 120 km after it is blended and 40 km from the biodiesel plant to the blending location). 4.5.2.4 Yellow Grease The yellow grease transportation parameters are set the same as the tallow parameters. 18

5. SASKATCHEWAN Saskatchewan is similar to BC in that it produces a portion of its refined products needs and imports some from Alberta. The transportation fuel sales in relation to the total petroleum product sales in Saskatchewan for 2008 are shown in the following table (Statistics Canada, 2009). This data is only used to provide the Saskatchewan weighting when calculating the regional or national averages. Table 5-1 Petroleum Product Sales Saskatchewan Volume, 1,000 cubic metres Gasoline 2,275.9 Diesel Fuel 2,163.0 Low Sulphur Diesel 2,035.9 LPG 81.1 Total sales all products 5,263.6 5.1 CRUDE OIL SUPPLY There is one refinery operating within Saskatchewan and it supplies about one half of the provincial demand for transportation fuels. Table 5-2 Saskatchewan Refinery Capacity Location Capacity (1,000 m 3 /d) Capacity (1,000 m 3 /yr) Federated Co-op Regina 15.9 5,565 Within GHGenius the crude oil refined can only be broken into three regions and thus the oil refined in Saskatchewan refinery is assumed to be the same average crude oil refined in western Canada. Crude oil transportation distances for Saskatchewan must be calculated for both the oil refined in Saskatchewan and for the refined oil products imported from Alberta. The assumption will be that the local refinery supplies one half of the demand and half is supplied by imports from Alberta. The oil for refining in Saskatchewan could be Alberta or Saskatchewan crude oil. It is assumed that the transportation distance for this crude oil is 600 km. The transportation distances for the crude oil are summarized in the following table. Table 5-3 Crude Oil Pipeline Transportation Distances - Saskatchewan % of supply Distance, km Weighted Distance Edmonton 50 400 200 Regina 50 600 300 Total 100 500 500 Some crude oil may also be transported by truck from the well to a pipeline receipt point. It will be assumed that the weighted average of this movement is 10 km. 19

5.2 REFINED PRODUCTS DISTRIBUTION The Edmonton refineries also distribute product to terminals in Saskatoon and Regina via Enbridge s Line 1. Almost half of Saskatchewan s product supply is shipped into the province from Edmonton. Consumers Co-operative Refinery located in Regina supplies the remainder of Saskatchewan s petroleum product demand from their Regina refinery. The distribution terminals are shown in the following figure. Figure 5-1 Saskatchewan Distribution Terminals The pipeline modelling parameters are shown in the following table. Table 5-4 Refined Products Pipeline Transportation - Saskatchewan % of supply Distance, km Weighted Distance, km Edmonton to Saskatoon (via Milden) 30 580 174 Edmonton to Regina 20 704 141 Total 50 630 315 Rail and marine are modes of transportation that are not significant in Saskatchewan. 20

The refined products are finally distributed from the terminals to the retail outlets by truck. About 40% of the population in Saskatchewan live in the cities of Regina and Saskatoon and thus are relatively close to the major transportation fuel distribution facilities. Another 25% of the population live in smaller urban communities and the remaining 35% live in rural areas. It will be assumed that the average trucking distance for petroleum products in Saskatchewan is 150 km. 5.3 ELECTRIC POWER The electric power supply in Saskatchewan is a mixture of coal, natural gas, wind, hydro and biomass. It is relatively carbon intensive. The use Saskatchewan power mix is selected by the drop down menu in cell F30 on the Input sheet. This is done automatically when the Saskatchewan model is chosen. 5.4 LPG AND NATURAL GAS LPG supply in Saskatchewan for transportation use is a combination of product from local refineries and product from natural gas production. The industry prefers the product from gas processing over the refinery supplied product. We have kept the ratio of refinery supply to gas plant supply the same as the default value in the model (0.86). It is assumed that all of the LPG is trucked from the refineries and gas plants to the point of use. The same transportation distance as is used for the truck movement of gasoline and diesel is used as shown in the following table. Table 5-5 LPG Transportation Scenario- Saskatchewan Distance Shipped, km Fraction Shipped by Mode Truck 150 1.0 There is little regionalization that can be done for the natural gas pathway in GHGenius at the present time. LNG could be regionalized but there currently is little commercial application of this fuel in the transportation sector. 5.5 BIOFUEL PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY Saskatchewan is a significant producer of wheat ethanol and produces some biodiesel. This province has the largest agricultural area of any province in Canada and could be a significant supplier to other regions in Canada. 5.5.1 Ethanol The local market is supplied by wheat ethanol produced in Saskatchewan but the imported corn ethanol pathway is set up as a comparison. 5.5.1.1 Wheat Ethanol The wheat production and ethanol parameters are based on the western Canada average but the source of electric power is set to be Saskatchewan. It is assumed that wheat ethanol would be shipped by truck from the producing plant to terminals in Regina or Saskatoon. This distance is set to 250 km. The only other mode that is used is the local distribution, which is set to the same 150 km as gasoline. 21

5.5.1.2 Corn Ethanol It is assumed that the corn ethanol is produced in the US Midwest and is shipped 1,100 km by rail. The corn producing region is set to US Central. The electric power for ethanol production is set to Saskatchewan, since this is close to the US power mix. This is a fuel pathway that is difficult to run with a single run of the model since most of the production systems happen in one country but the fuel is used in a different country. The defaults that will be installed for this system will underestimated the GHG emissions since many of the important parameters (e.g. fertilizer production) have higher emission factors in the US than in Canada. Users should run the model twice, once for Saskatchewan and once for the US Central region and merge the two data sets according to which portion of the lifecycle takes place in the US and which portion is in Canada. 5.5.1.3 Sugar Cane Ethanol It is assumed that sugar cane ethanol would be shipped 200 km from the production plant to port in Brazil and then shipped 15,700 km by ship to the Port of Vancouver where it would be loaded into rail cars and shipped an additional 1700 km to the gasoline blending point. It would then be shipped with the gasoline the additional 150 km to the retail stations. 5.5.2 Biodiesel The modelling scenarios for the four most likely sources of biodiesel are summarized below. 5.5.2.1 Canola Biodiesel It is assumed that the canola biodiesel is produced in Saskatchewan from western Canadian produced canola and shipped by truck to terminals in Regina and Saskatoon. This transportation distance has been set to 250 km. The local distribution by truck is set the same as it is for diesel fuel. 5.5.2.2 Soybean Biodiesel It is assumed that soybean biodiesel will come from the US Midwest so the same 1,100 km rail distance is used. The same issues that are present for US corn ethanol apply to soybean biodiesel but because of the lower input requirements the differences between Canada and the US are not as large as they are for corn. 5.5.2.3 Tallow Biodiesel Tallow biodiesel could be produced in Saskatchewan so the model has been set up for local production. The carcass transportation distance is set to 100 km by truck. The tallow is transported another 50 km to the biodiesel plant and the biodiesel is transported a total of 190 km by truck after it is produced (the 150 km after it is blended and 40 km from the biodiesel plant to the blending location). 5.5.2.4 Yellow Grease The yellow grease transportation parameters are set the same as the tallow parameters. 22

6. MANITOBA Manitoba is one of only two provinces in Canada that does not have it s own refining industry. In the late 1970 s and early 1980 s two small refineries were closed and since then all refined products have been shipped from Alberta and Saskatchewan. Table 6-1 Petroleum Product Sales Manitoba Volume, 1,000 cubic metres Gasoline 1,465.5 Diesel Fuel 1,147.6 Low Sulphur Diesel 885.4 LPG 0.6 Total sales all products 3,059.9 6.1 CRUDE OIL SUPPLY We have assumed that all of the refined product will come from Alberta and thus the crude oil supply distances are the same as those modelled for Alberta as shown in the following table. Table 6-2 Crude Oil Pipeline Transportation Distances - Manitoba % of supply Distance, km Weighted Distance Edmonton 100 400 400 Total 100 400 400 The crude oil slate is the same as that refined in the rest of western Canada. 6.2 REFINED PRODUCTS DISTRIBUTION Two terminals located in Winnipeg supply the entire province of Manitoba. Products are shipped from the Edmonton and Co-op refineries down Enbridge s Line 1 to Gretna. The terminal at Gretna contains breakout tanks, which allow product to be injected into the Winnipeg Products Pipeline (WPPL). A small truck loading rack also provides the capability to export products to nearby American communities. The location of the terminals is shown in the following figure. 23

Figure 6-1 Manitoba Distribution Terminals The Manitoba product pipeline modelling parameters are shown in the following table. Table 6-3 Refined Products Pipeline Transportation - Manitoba % of supply Distance, km Weighted Distance, km Edmonton to Winnipeg 100 1,365 1,365 The Winnipeg terminals are equipped with rail loading facilities that are used to ship product into northern Ontario. In the summer months, the Winnipeg terminals supply the majority of the product demand in markets between Winnipeg and Thunder Bay. During the winter months, when barge traffic on the Great Lakes is curtailed, all products in this area are supplied out of Winnipeg. The rail mode is generally not used for shipments to Manitoba communities except perhaps to some in the far north. Some of this is also supplied from Regina. About 50% of the population of Manitoba lives in Winnipeg, with the remainder being found in smaller cities and rural communities in the southern portion of the province. It is assumed that the average truck transportation distance for the refined products is 120 km. 24

6.3 ELECTRIC POWER Electric power production in Manitoba is almost all hydro-electric power and thus has a very low carbon intensity. The use Manitoba power mix is selected by the drop down menu in cell F30 on the Input sheet. This is done automatically when the Manitoba model is chosen. 6.4 LPG AND NATURAL GAS LPG supply for Manitoba is supplied by pipeline from Alberta and then distributed locally by truck. The pipeline distance will be assumed to be the same 1,365 km as the products pipeline and the trucking distance will be the same 120 km as the petroleum products. Table 6-4 LPG Transportation Scenario - Manitoba Distance Shipped, km Fraction Shipped by Mode Pipeline 1,365 1.0 Truck 120 1.0 6.5 BIOFUEL PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY Manitoba is a producer of both ethanol and biodiesel and it is a producer of corn and soybeans as well as wheat and canola. All of the defaults have been set to model local production. 6.5.1 Ethanol Both wheat and corn ethanol from the Canadian Prairies are potential supply options for Manitoba. In both cases the product would likely be trucked to the distribution terminals and then blended with gasoline. 6.5.1.1 Wheat Ethanol The wheat production and ethanol parameters are based on the western Canada average but the source of electric power is set to be Manitoba. It is assumed that wheat ethanol would be shipped by truck from the Manitoba production facility to the Winnipeg terminals. This distance is 200 km. The only other mode that is used is the local distribution, which is set to the same 120 km as gasoline. The total distance is therefore 320 km. 6.5.1.2 Corn Ethanol It is assumed that the corn ethanol is produced in Manitoba. Since the producing region and the consuming region are the same many of the issues that were identified for corn ethanol in the other western provinces don t occur. It is assumed that corn ethanol would be shipped by truck from the Manitoba production facility to the Winnipeg terminals. This distance is 200 km. The only other mode that is used is the local distribution, which is set to the same 120 km as gasoline. 6.5.1.3 Sugar Cane Ethanol It is assumed that sugar cane ethanol would be shipped 200 km from the production plant to port in Brazil and then shipped 15,700 km by ship to the Port of Vancouver where it would be 25

loaded into rail cars and shipped an additional 2300 km to the gasoline blending point. It would then be shipped with the gasoline the additional 120 km to the retail stations. 6.5.2 Biodiesel The modelling scenarios for the four most likely sources of biodiesel are summarized below. 6.5.2.1 Canola Biodiesel It is assumed that the canola biodiesel is produced in Manitoba from western Canadian produced canola and shipped by truck to Winnipeg. This transportation distance has been set to 200 km. The local distribution by truck is set the same as it is for diesel fuel. 6.5.2.2 Soybean Biodiesel It is assumed that soybean biodiesel will come from Manitoba production and shipped by truck to Winnipeg. This transportation distance has been set to 200 km. The local distribution by truck is set the same as it is for diesel fuel. 6.5.2.3 Tallow Biodiesel Tallow biodiesel could be produced in Manitoba so the model has been set up for local production. The carcass transportation distance is set to 100 km by truck. The tallow is transported another 50 km to the biodiesel plant and the biodiesel is transported a total of 160 km by truck after it is produced (the 120 km after it is blended and 40 km from the biodiesel plant to the blending location. 6.5.2.4 Yellow Grease The yellow grease transportation parameters are set the same as the tallow parameters. 26

7. ONTARIO Ontario is now a net importer of petroleum products as some of the provincial refineries have been closed in recent years. The shortfall between provincial production and demand is met by imports from Quebec refineries and from the United States. The transportation fuel sales in relation to the total petroleum product sales in Ontario for 2008 are shown in the following table (Statistics Canada, 2009). This data is only used to provide the Ontario weighting when calculating the regional or national averages. Table 7-1 Petroleum Product Sales Ontario Volume, 1,000 cubic metres Gasoline 15,772.3 Diesel Fuel 6,976.9 Low Sulphur Diesel 6,379.0 LPG 92.9 Total sales all products 33,043.9 7.1 CRUDE OIL SUPPLY The four Ontario refineries are supplied both by oil from western Canada, and from imported oil. The Ontario refineries and their capacity are shown in the following table. It would appear that about one third of the demand in the province is supplied by refineries outside the province. Table 7-2 Ontario Refinery Capacity Location Capacity (1,000 m 3 /d) Capacity (1,000 m 3 /yr) Imperial Oil Sarnia 18.3 6,400 Imperial Oil Nanticoke 17.8 6,200 Suncor Sarnia 11.0 3,900 Shell Sarnia 11.4 4,000 Total Ontario 58.5 21,500 The oil supply in GHGenius is regionalized and the central Canada region comprises both Ontario and Quebec. While there are three or more refineries in each province, and we know that no western Canadian oil is processed in Quebec, it is possible to be more specific with the crude oil slates in Ontario and Quebec. However since a significant portion of the gasoline and diesel fuel supply in Ontario comes from the Quebec refineries we have retained the regional crude oil supply data. We have used Ontario specific data for the pipeline transportation component of the model as shown in the following table. Table 7-3 Crude Oil Pipeline Transportation Distances - Ontario % of supply Distance, km Weighted Distance Alberta to Sarnia 65 3,200 2,080 Portland Maine to Sarnia 35 1,220 427 Total 100 2,507 2,507 27

7.2 REFINED PRODUCTS DISTRIBUTION Petroleum products distribution in Ontario is a mixed modal system. Much of the product in southern Ontario is moved by pipeline from the refineries to distribution terminals as shown in Figure 2-4. Northern Ontario is supplied from the Sault Ste Marie, Thunder Bay, and Sudbury terminals. Only one terminal exists in Thunder Bay operated by Petro-Canada. Other refiners bring their product into the market through the Petro-Canada facility. Petro- Canada and Shell supply product by rail from Winnipeg year round and Imperial Oil supplies product in summer by marine from Sarnia and in the winter from Winnipeg. At Sault Ste Marie, there are three (2) terminals (Shell, and Imperial Oil). Shell provides product by rail from Montreal and Imperial Oil and Sunoco supply product year round by marine movements from Sarnia. In Sudbury, Imperial Oil operates a terminal, which is supplied by rail from their Nanticoke refinery. The location of the Ontario terminals and refineries are shown in the following figure. Figure 7-1 Ontario Product Distribution Terminals As noted above, rail is used to transport product to Thunder Bay, Sault Ste Marie, and Sudbury. These movements are summarized in the following table. 28

Table 7-4 Refined Products Rail Transportation - Ontario % of supply Distance, km Weighted Distance Winnipeg to Thunderbay 1.5 700 10.5 Montreal to Sault Ste Marie 1.5 980 14.7 Nanticoke to Sudbury 1.5 500 7.5 Total 4.5 725 32.7 Marine barges are used to transport product from Sarnia to terminals at Thunder Bay and Sault Ste Marie. These movements are summarized in the following table. Table 7-5 Refined Products Barge Transportation - Ontario % of supply Distance, km Weighted Distance Sarnia to Thunder Bay 0.5 1,100 5.5 Sarnia to Sault Ste Marie 1.5 600 9.0 Total 2.0 725 14.5 The southern Ontario region is served by a number of pipelines from the refineries to product terminals. The system is quite complex and the primary facilities are summarized in the following table. Table 7-6 Refined Products Pipeline Transportation - Ontario % of supply Distance, km Weighted Distance, km Sarnia to London 10 100 10.0 Sarnia to Hamilton 10 225 22.5 Sarnia to Toronto 20 270 54.0 Nanticoke to Toronto 20 145 29.0 Montreal to Oakville 5 580 29.0 Montreal to Ottawa 7 190 13.3 Montreal to Toronto 15 540 81.0 Montreal to Cornwall 1.5 115 1.7 Montreal to Maitland 1.5 200 3.0 Montreal to Kingston 1.5 290 4.4 Montreal to Belleville 1.5 360 5.4 Total 93 272 253.3 The refined products are finally distributed from the terminals to the retail outlets by truck. Given the large number of terminals in Ontario, it will be assumed that the trucking distances are relatively short and average 80 km for the province. 7.3 ELECTRIC POWER Electric power production in Ontario is quite diverse with thermal fossil generation, nuclear, and hydro electric all making significant contributions to the supply. The Ontario power mix is selected by the drop down menu in cell F30 on the Input sheet. This is done automatically when the Ontario model is chosen. 29

7.4 LPG AND NATURAL GAS LPG supply for Ontario is supplied both by pipeline from Alberta and from Ontario refineries. It is then distributed locally by truck. The pipeline distance will be assumed to be the same 3,200 km as the crude oil pipeline and the trucking distance will be 150 km. This is larger than the petroleum products as there is not the same pipeline system in place from the refineries to the distribution terminals. It is assumed that 80% of the supply is from western Canada. Table 7-7 LPG Transportation Scenario - Ontario Distance Shipped, km Fraction Shipped by Mode Pipeline 3,200 0.8 Truck 150 1.0 7.5 BIOFUEL PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY Ontario is a significant biofuel producer with a number of corn ethanol plants and a mulitfeedstock biodiesel plant in operation. 7.5.1 Ethanol Both wheat ethanol from the Canadian Prairies and corn ethanol from Ontario are supply pathways for Ontario. 7.5.1.1 Wheat Ethanol The wheat production and ethanol parameters are based on the western Canada average but the source of electric power is set to be Saskatchewan. It is assumed that wheat ethanol would be shipped by rail from Saskatchewan to Toronto. This distance is 2,700 km. The only other mode that is used is the local distribution by truck, which is set to the same 80 km as gasoline. 7.5.1.2 Corn Ethanol It is assumed that the corn ethanol is produced in Ontario and is shipped 200 km by truck to the blending terminal and then another 80 km from the terminal to the retail outlet. The corn producing region is set to Canada Central. Ontario is a net importer of corn so the transportation distance from the farm to the ethanol plant has been set to 250 km by truck to account for larger shipping distances than would normally be found with a biofuel plant. The electric power for ethanol production is set to Ontario. 7.5.1.3 Sugar Cane Ethanol It is assumed that sugar cane ethanol would be shipped 200 km from the production plant to port in Brazil and then shipped 10,240 km by ship to the Port of Montreal where it would be loaded into trucks and shipped an additional 350 km to the gasoline blending point. It would then be shipped with the gasoline the additional 80 km to the retail stations. 30

7.5.2 Biodiesel The modelling scenarios for the four most likely sources of biodiesel are summarized below. 7.5.2.1 Canola Biodiesel It is assumed that the canola biodiesel is produced in Saskatchewan from western Canadian produced canola and shipped by rail to Toronto. This transportation distance has been set to 2,700 km. The local distribution by truck is set the same as it is for diesel fuel. The use of electricity in the biodiesel production process can not be set to a different producing region than consuming region as the model is currently configured so when the Ontario model is selected for a fuel produced in Saskatchewan, it will use the Ontario power mix and thus slightly underestimated the GHG emissions associated with biodiesel production. Multiple model runs could be undertaken by the user and the results sets merged according to the location that the activity takes place in. 7.5.2.2 Soybean Biodiesel It is assumed that soybean biodiesel will come from Ontario so the same 200 km truck distance for corn ethanol is used to model the transportation distances from the biodiesel plant to the terminal. This is augmented by an additional transportation component of 50 km to allow for the fact that the soybean oil production and the biodiesel production may not happen at the same location. 7.5.2.3 Tallow Biodiesel Tallow biodiesel is produced in Ontario so the model has been set up for local production. The carcass transportation distance is set to 100 km by truck. The tallow is transported another 50 km to the biodiesel plant and the biodiesel is transported a total of 120 km by truck after it is produced (the 80 km after it is blended and 40 km from the biodiesel plant to the blending location. 7.5.2.4 Yellow Grease The yellow grease transportation parameters are set the same as the tallow parameters. 31

8. QUEBEC Quebec is an importer of crude oil and petroleum products and is an exporter of petroleum products to Ontario and Atlantic Canada. The transportation fuel sales in relation to the total petroleum product sales in Quebec for 2008 are shown in the following table (Statistics Canada, 2009). This data is only used to provide the Quebec weighting when calculating the regional or national averages. Table 8-1 Petroleum Product Sales Quebec Volume, 1,000 cubic metres Gasoline 8,997.5 Diesel Fuel 4,759.9 Low Sulphur Diesel 4,603.5 LPG 344.7 Total sales all products 22,426.9 8.1 CRUDE OIL SUPPLY The crude oil supply in Quebec is composed of over 90% imported crude oil with the remainder supplied by Canadian offshore crude oil. We have used the average for all of eastern Canada in the model for Quebec and this produces a slight extra weighting towards Canadian crude oil. Table 8-2 Quebec Refinery Capacity Location Capacity (1,000 m 3 /d) Capacity (1,000 m 3 /yr) Ultramar St-Romuald 41.3 14,455 Shell Montreal 19.2 6,720 Petro-Canada Montreal 20.6 7,210 Total Quebec 28,385 The crude oil for Quebec refineries is delivered directly to the St Romuald refinery and the Montreal refineries receive crude oil by pipeline via the import terminal in Portland, Maine. The pipeline data for the model is summarized in the following table. Table 8-3 Crude Oil Pipeline Transportation Distances - Quebec % of supply Distance, km Weighted Distance Portland Maine to Montreal 55 380 209 Total 55 380 209 8.2 REFINED PRODUCTS DISTRIBUTION Ultramar is currently planning a product pipeline that will run from their refinery in St- Romuald to Montreal. This pipeline would have an initial capacity of 16,000 cubic metres per day with the possibility of expansion with the addition of further pumping facilities. Until this pipeline is completed the primary modes of transportation are rail, barge and truck. The location of the refineries and product terminals are shown in the following figure. 32

Figure 8-1 Quebec Distribution Terminals Table 8-4 Refined Products Rail Transportation - Quebec % of supply Distance, km Weighted Distance Quebec to Montreal 10 250 50 Marine barges are used to transport product from Quebec City to terminals at Rimouski, Matane, Baie-Comeau, Gaspe and three small communities in Northern Quebec. These movements are summarized in the following table. 33

Table 8-5 Refined Products Barge Transportation - Quebec % of supply Distance, km Weighted Distance Quebec to Montreal 10 250 25 Quebec to Rimouski 1 300 3 Quebec to Matane 1 400 4 Quebec to Baie-Comeau 1 400 4 Quebec to Gaspe 1 700 7 Quebec to Sept Isle 1 600 6 Quebec to Northern Communities 1 2,000 20 Total 16 430 69 The refined products are finally distributed from the terminals to the retail outlets by truck. Given the large number of terminals in Quebec, it will be assumed that the trucking distances are relatively short and average 80 km for the province. 8.3 ELECTRIC POWER Electric power production in Quebec is almost all hydro-electric power and thus has a very low carbon intensity. The use Quebec power mix is selected by the drop down menu in cell F30 on the Input sheet. This is done automatically when the Quebec model is chosen. 8.4 LPG AND NATURAL GAS LPG supply for Quebec is supplied from Quebec refineries. It is then distributed locally by truck. Table 8-6 LPG Transportation Scenario - Quebec Distance Shipped, km Fraction Shipped by Mode Truck 150 1.0 8.5 BIOFUEL PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY Quebec is a producer of corn ethanol and tallow and waste grease biodiesel. These supplies could be augmented with imports of wheat ethanol and canola biodiesel form western Canada. 8.5.1 Ethanol Both wheat ethanol from the Canadian Prairies and corn ethanol from Quebec are potential supply options for Quebec. 8.5.1.1 Wheat Ethanol The wheat production and ethanol parameters are based on the western Canada average but the source of electric power is set to be Saskatchewan. It is assumed that wheat ethanol would be shipped by rail from Saskatchewan to Montreal. This distance is 2,900 km. The only other mode that is used is the local distribution, which is set to the same 80 km as gasoline. 34

8.5.1.2 Corn Ethanol It is assumed that the corn ethanol is produced in Quebec and is shipped 100 km by truck. The corn producing region is set to Canada Central. The electric power for ethanol production is set to Quebec. The corn supply distance is set to 100 km by truck. 8.5.1.3 Sugar Cane Ethanol It is assumed that sugar cane ethanol would be shipped 200 km from the production plant to port in Brazil and then shipped 10,240 km by ship to the Port of Montreal where it would be blended with gasoline. It would then be shipped with the gasoline the additional 80 km to the retail stations. 8.5.2 Biodiesel The modelling scenarios for the four most likely sources of biodiesel are summarized below. 8.5.2.1 Canola Biodiesel It is assumed that the canola biodiesel is produced in Saskatchewan from western Canadian produced canola and shipped by rail to Montreal. This transportation distance has been set to 2,900 km. The local distribution by truck is set the same as it is for diesel fuel. 8.5.2.2 Soybean Biodiesel It is assumed that soybean biodiesel will come from Quebec so the same 100 km truck distance is used to model the transportation distances for corn ethanol is used from the biodiesel plant to the terminal. This is augmented by an additional transportation component of 50 km to allow for the fact that the soybean oil production and the biodiesel production may not happen at the same location. 8.5.2.3 Tallow Biodiesel Tallow biodiesel could be produced in Quebec so the model has been set up for local production. The carcass transportation distance is set to 100 km by truck. The tallow is transported another 50 km to the biodiesel plant and the biodiesel is transported a total of 120 km by truck after it is produced (the 80 km after it is blended and 40 km from the biodiesel plant to the blending location). 8.5.2.4 Yellow Grease The yellow grease transportation parameters are set the same as the tallow parameters. 35

9. CANADA EAST The Canada East region in the model has not be broken down further into specific provinces as in many cases there are confidentiality issues with the data when considered on a provincial rather than regional basis. The transportation fuel sales in relation to the total petroleum product sales in Atlantic Canada for 2008 are shown in the following table (Statistics Canada, 2009). This data is only used to provide the Atlantic Canada weighting when calculating the national averages. Table 9-1 Petroleum Product Sales Atlantic Canada Volume, 1,000 cubic metres Gasoline 3,174.9 Diesel Fuel 2,415.0 Low Sulphur Diesel 1,891.6 LPG 154.0 Total sales all products 9,946.2 9.1 CRUDE OIL SUPPLY The supply of crude oil for the three refineries in the region is mostly imported crude oil supplemented by a small amount of offshore Canadian crude oil. As can be seen from the comparison of Tables 9-1 and 9-2, the region is a significant exporter of refined products. Table 9-2 Atlantic Canada Refinery Capacity Location Capacity (1,000 m 3 /d) Capacity (1,000 m 3 /yr) Irving Oil Saint John, NB 39.7 13,900 North Atlantic Refining Come By Chance, NF 18.3 6,400 Imperial Oil Dartmouth, NS 14.1 4,950 Total Atlantic Canada 72.1 25,250 All of the crude oil that is supplied to the regions refined is shipped by water and thus the model automatically calculates the distances that the product is shipped. There is no movement of crude oil by a mode other than water and thus the other modes are all zeroed out. 9.2 REFINED PRODUCTS DISTRIBUTION The three refineries move most of their product to the final consumer through distribution terminals that are supplied by barge from the refineries. These terminals are shown in the following figure. 36

Figure 9-1 Eastern Canada Distribution Terminals The barge distances and estimated volume fractions are summarized in the following table. It is estimated that 50% of the product for the region is moved by barge, with the remainder moving by truck direct from the refineries. Table 9-3 Refined Products Barge Transportation Atlantic Canada % of supply Distance, km Weighted Distance Saint John to Miramichi 10 1,600 160 Saint John to Charlottetown 2.5 1,250 31 Saint John to Sidney 7 800 56 Halifax to Yarmouth 7 290 20 Halifax to Sidney 7 420 29 Halifax to Charlottetown 2.5 800 20 Come by Chance to Nfld terminals 10 300 30 Come by Chance to Labrador term 4 800 32 Total 50 756 378 The refined products are finally distributed from the terminals to the retail outlets by truck. Given the large number of terminals in Atlantic Canada, it will be assumed that the trucking distances are relatively short and average 80 km for the region. 9.3 ELECTRIC POWER The regions electric power mix has a diverse supply base with fossil thermal, nuclear, and hydro electricity all playing a role. The Atlantic Canada power mix is selected by the drop down menu in cell F30 on the input sheet. 37

9.4 LPG AND NATURAL GAS LPG supply for Atlantic Canada is supplied from refineries in the region. It is then distributed locally by barge and truck. Table 9-4 LPG Transportation Scenario Atlantic Canada Distance Shipped, km Fraction Shipped by Mode Truck 150 1.0 Marine barge 500 0.5 9.5 BIOFUEL PRODUCTION AND SUPPLY Atlantic Canada is unlikely to be a significant producer of biofuels from agricultural feedstocks so the scenarios that have been set for the provincial defaults are based on imported products except for the tallow and yellow grease biodiesels. 9.5.1 Ethanol Both wheat ethanol from the Canadian Prairies and corn ethanol from the US Midwest are potential supply options for Atlantic Canada. In both cases the product would likely be railed in to the distribution terminals and then blended with gasoline. 9.5.1.1 Wheat Ethanol The wheat production and ethanol parameters are based on the western Canada average and the source of electric power is set to be Saskatchewan. It is assumed that wheat ethanol would be shipped by rail from Saskatchewan to Saint John. This distance is 3,800 km. The only other mode that is used is the local distribution, which is set to the same 80 km as gasoline. 9.5.1.2 Corn Ethanol It is assumed that the corn ethanol is produced in the US Midwest and is shipped 3,200 km by rail. The corn producing region is set to US Central. The electric power for ethanol production is set to Saskatchewan, since this is close to the US power mix. This is a fuel pathway that is difficult to run with a single run of the model since most of the production systems happen in one country but the fuel is used in a different country. The defaults that will be installed for this system will underestimated the GHG emissions since many of the important parameters (e.g. fertilizer production) have higher emission factors in the US than in Canada. Users should run the model twice, once for Atlantic Canada and once for the US Central region and merge the two data sets according to which portion of the lifecycle takes place in the US and which portion is in Canada. 9.5.1.3 Sugar Cane Ethanol It is assumed that sugar cane ethanol would be shipped 200 km from the production plant to port in Brazil and then shipped 8,950 km by ship to the refinery in the maritimes where it would be blended with gasoline. It would then be shipped with the gasoline the additional 80 km to the retail stations. 38

9.5.2 Biodiesel The modelling scenarios for the four most likely sources of biodiesel are summarized below. 9.5.2.1 Canola Biodiesel It is assumed that the canola biodiesel is produced in Saskatchewan from western Canadian produced canola and shipped by rail to Saint John. This transportation distance has been set to 3,800 km. The local distribution by truck is set the same as it is for diesel fuel. The use of electricity in the biodiesel production process can not be set to a different producing region than consuming region as the model is currently configured so when the Atlantic Canada model is selected for a fuel produced in Saskatchewan, it will use the Atlantic Canada power mix. The user could undertake multiple model runs and the results sets merged according to the location that the activity takes place in. 9.5.2.2 Soybean Biodiesel It is assumed that soybean biodiesel will come form the US Midwest so the same 3,200 km rail distance is used. The same issues that are present for US corn ethanol apply to soybean biodiesel but because of the lower input requirements the differences between Canada and the US are not as large as they are for corn. 9.5.2.3 Tallow Biodiesel Tallow biodiesel could be produced in Atlantic Canada so the model has been set up for local production. The carcass transportation distance is set to 100 km by truck. The tallow is transported another 40 km to the biodiesel plant and the biodiesel is transported a total of 120 km by truck after it is produced (the 80 km after it is blended and 40 km from the biodiesel plant to the blending location). 9.5.2.4 Yellow Grease The yellow grease transportation parameters are set the same as the tallow parameters. 39

10. REGIONAL DEFAULTS In addition to the default values described for each of the provinces and regions in Canada the same basic data is used to develop default values for the three regions, Canada West, Canada Central, and Canada East. Canada average is then calculated from the three regions. The approach is briefly described below. 10.1 CANADA WEST The Canada West region in GHGenius includes BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The default values are calculated by taking the total petroleum products weighted average sales for the four provinces. The weighting values are summarized in the following table. Table 10-1 Weighting Factors Canada West Province Weighting Factor BC 0.31 Alberta 0.48 Saskatchewan 0.13 Manitoba 0.08 Total 1.00 10.2 CANADA CENTRAL The Canada Central region includes Ontario and Quebec. The regional defaults are calculated in the same manner by using the petroleum products weighted sales for each of the provinces to arrive at the defaults for the region. The weighting values are summarized in the following table. Table 10-2 Weighting Factors Canada Central Province Weighting Factor Ontario 0.60 Quebec 0.40 Total 1.00 10.3 CANADA EAST The Canada East values are the same as described in section 9 of the report. 10.4 CANADA AVERAGE The Canada average values are calculated based on the sales weighted average for each of the three regions as summarized in the following table. 40

Table 10-3 Weighting Factors Canada Region Weighting Factor Canada West 0.36 Canada Central 0.54 Canada East 0.10 Total 1.00 41

11. OPERATION OF THE MODEL The default buttons are found in row 2 of the Input sheet in columns B to H. The user simply presses button for the province or region that they wish to model and the appropriate default values for all of the fuels discussed previously are installed. The buttons are shown in the following figure. Figure 11-1 Default Buttons The user can overwrite any of the default values that are automatically installed if they wish to model a specific scenario rather than a regional average. The default values are the best estimate of average conditions for a province or a region but within each region there could be specific scenarios that are different from the default values. It must also be remembered that in some cases the regional data could not be better defined at the provincial level. For example, the Canadian crude oil that is assumed to be refined in Central Canada is the average for the region and not provincial specific, so since some bitumen and synthetic oil is used in the central region that is also the assumption that is made for each of the provinces. While we know this is not the case for Quebec, the current structure of the model does not allow for further refinement to be done automatically. Users can make further detailed inputs on sheet Z, but this will overwrite the default values for the region. 42