th International JODI Conference 8 th 10-11 11 th October 2011, Beijing, China Ten Years of JODI Presentations Jean-Yves Garnier Head, Energy Statistics Division International Energy Agency
World Oil Market Data The 5 th Joint Oil Better Data Data Initiative for Better Conference Markets Riyadh, Mexico 10-12 City, 23-25 November May Bali, 2002 2001 Madrid, 5-7 October July 14-15, 2004 2000 What Next for Oil Data Transparency? Mexico - A Major Step Towards The Summit From Mexico to Osaka and Beyond The Joint Oil Data Transparency Initiative The Joint Oil Data Initiative 123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012 345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234 Where Can Data do Quality we stand? be Improved? 567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456 The Road Ahead A Short Background 789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678 901234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890234567890123456789012345678901234567890145678990789012345678 Where do we go from here? Jean-Yves Garnier Head, Energy Jean-Yves Statistics Garnier Division Head, Energy Statistics Division International Jean-Yves Energy Agency Garnier International Energy Agency International Energy Agency
10 Years of Commitment and Hard Work Riyadh Nov 00 Madrid Why a July 00 need for a JODI-like initiative Paris Nov 00 Bangkok Apr 01 Vienna May 01 Riyadh Nov. 01 Mexico May 02 The launch of the initiative Vienna Oct 01 Luxem. Jan 02 Vienna Apr 02 Osaka Sep 02 Paris July 02 Vienna Jan 03 Cairo Oct 03 Paris Dec 03 Amst. May 04 Vienna Jun 04 Bali Oct 04 Riyadh Jan 05 Paris Jul 05 Riyadh Nov 05 The World JODI database Paris Nov 05 Luxem. Jan 06 N York May 06 Rome May 08 Improving quality Riyadh Nov 06 and coverage Doha Paris May 06 Oct 08 Luxem. June 08 Vienna Sep 06 Paris Nov 07 Amst. May 04 Mexico May 02 Paris Dec 03 Quito June 09 Vienna Mar 09 Cancun Mar 10 Riyadh Expanding 11 JODI oil to natural gas and others Paris Dec 10 International Energy Forum Conferences JODI Conferences Beijing Oct 11 N York Sep 11 Inter-Secretariat Working Group Meetings
Why a need for a JODI-like initiative 4000 How 3000 everything 2000 started 1000 Widening gap between global oil supply and demand d Thousand barrels per day Unusually high volatility of oil -1000 Unusually high volatility of oil prices at the end of the 1990s 40 35 30 0 Blame on statistics? -2000-3000 1Q1986 3Q1986 1Q1987 3Q1987 1Q1988 3Q1988 1Q1989 3Q1989 1Q1990 3Q1990 1Q1991 3Q1991 1Q1992 3Q1992 1Q1993 3Q1993 1Q1994 3Q1994 1Q1995 3Q1995 1Q1996 3Q1996 1Q1997 3Q1997 1Q1998 3Q1998 1Q1999 3Q1999 1Q2000 3Q2000 25 20 15 10 5 0 Jan-90 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01
Why a need for a JODI-like initiative Crude Oil and NGL Production Madrid, 14-15 15 July 2000 World Oil Market Data Better Data for Better Markets Oil Demand Share(%) OPEC APEC OLADE OECD China 6.4 Russia 3.3 India 2.7 Share(%) OPEC APEC OLADE Brazil OECD 2.6 Saudi Arabia 12.4 Saudi Arabia 1.7 Russia 8.8 Iran 1.4 Iran 5.1 Indonesia 1.3 Venezuela 4.7 Chinese Taipei 1.1 China 4.6 Thailand 0.9 Iraq 3.6 Singapore 0.8 UAE 2.9 Egypt 0.8 Nigeria 2.9 Kuwait 2.8 Libya 1.9 Indonesia 1.8 Algeria 1.7 Oman 1.3 Colombia 1.2 Egypt 1.2 India 1.1 Angola 1.1 Malaysia 11 1.1 Qatar 0.9 Kazakhstan 0.9 OECD 28.6 Total 90.3 Venezuela 0.7 Malaysia 0.7 Argentina 0.6 South Africa 0.6 Iraq 0.6 Pakistan 05 0.5 Ukraine 0.5 UAE 0.4 Libya 0.3 OECD 63.4 Total 91.4 Positive response from participants to a proposal to gather international organisations to discuss oil data issues
Why a need for a JODI-like initiative The conjunction of both political and technical concerns paved the way to the Bangkok meeting Technical Heads of Statistics in Paris Political Paris 13-14 Nov. 2000 There are many problems with definitions, units, methodology Organisation can solve some of the problems Involvement of countries is essential Ministers at the 7th IEF Meeting Riyadh 17-19 Nov. 2000 Bangkok k 2-3 April 2001
The launch of the initiative Bangkok, 2-3 April 2001 Russia Korea Malaysia Germany Netherlands APERC EUROSTAT China Thailand UK US South Africa UN Improving Oil Data Transparency IEA/ OECD Japan Australia Saudi Arabia OPEC Iran Nigeria Algeria Brazil OLADE Argentina Mexico Criticisms and needs from oil analysts, industry, policy makers Agreement to launch a six-month joint oil data exercise. Problems encountered by countries and organisations JODE which later became JODI was born. What needs to be done? What can be done? How to go about it?
The launch of the initiative Countries and Organisations decided to keep the Exercise as simple as possible JOINT APERC/EUROSTAT/OECD-IEA/ OLADE/OPEC/UN DATA EXERCISE A Simple Format (42 data points) : Month: Unit: Crude Oil Month -1 and Month -2 Production Imports Refinery Output Imports LPG Petroleum Products Gasoline Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Fuel Oil Choice of units left to organisations Total Oil Exports Exports Stocks Closing Change Stocks Closing Change Refinery Intake Demand Simple Definitions
The launch of the initiative The interest in participating in JODE grew very quickly. Within one year participation went from a few percents to over 90%. ALGERIA CHINESE TAIPEI GREECE KUWAIT PHILIPPINES THAILAND ANGOLA COLOMBIA HONDURAS LIBYA POLAND TURKEY ARGENTINA COSTA RICA HONG KONG LUXEMBOURG PORTUGAL UNITED KINGDOM AUATRALIA CZECH REPUBLIC HUNGARY MALAYSIA QATAR UNITED STATES AUSTRIA DENMARK ICELAND MEXICO RUSSIA URUGUAY BELGIUM DOM. REPUBLIC INDIA NETHERLANDS SAUDI ARABIA YEMEN BOLIVIA ECUADOR INDONESIA NEW ZEALAND SLOVAKIA BRAZIL EGYPT IRAN NIGERIA SOUTH AFRICA BRUNEI DARUSSALAM FINLAND IRELAND NORWAY SPAIN CANADA FRANCE ITALY PAPUA NEW GUINEA SWEDEN CHILE GABON JAPAN PARAGUAY SWITZERLAND CHINA GERMANY KOREA PERU SYRIA 70 participating countries as of May 2002 Riyadh 70% Production 91% Mexico 83% Consumption 93% The initial 90% target was met APEC 20/21 OECD 26/30 OLADE 17/26 OPEC UN JODE became JODI. And organisations were under strong 7/11 pressure to build a database and to open it widely 6/9
The World JODI database And what now?
The World JODI database Pros and Pros and Cons of Releasing the JODI World Database The final database step still towards contains transparency a lot of holes an answer to the Minister s call of the 7 th, 8 th and 9 th IEF The quality is not necessarily there we are uncertain about the The data result from some of three participating years p work. countries JODI was launched in 2001 so it has now been running for three years it is time that the results were The data visible update for some countries are not on a regular enough basis It will promote and create publicity for the project The critics will shoot the project down immediately if the The quality missing of the and data low is not quality good data: enough will it incite those countries to improve timelines and accuracy of the data they submit, if they All sorts know of it other will be criticism: publicly conversion available? factor, units, definitions Will From it a create technical a higher perspective: commitment we have of the distributed participating the JODI countries? world database with Beyond 20/20 if it is taken over by the IEFS, will Increased the same software publicity be around used? the If JODI not, for will the create users a it larger may interest, not look therefore very good maybe if a change new participation is made after six months
The World JODI database The decision was taken to release the database: On 19 November 2005, King Abdullah launched the JODI Database in front of 70 Ministers
The World JODI database The JODI database Not only data points but also some indication on data quality
The World JODI database 2005: A pivotal year with the arrival of the IEF Secretariat as a coordinator for the initiative F1 A1 A2 A3 F2 E2 JODI Database B1 B2 E1 B3 D1 D2 D3 C1 C2
Improving quality and coverage Performance assessment and educative tools
Improving quality and coverage Performance assessment and educative tools 2009 Programme of Training October 2009, hosted by Turkey 3 rd Training for MENA Caspian Sea countries 23-26 October 2007 in Algiers 1 st JODI Training ------ 14-19/08/06 ------ OLADE IEFS IEA OPEC UNSD IMF Caracas Bogota Algiers 2010 Programme of Training i July, hosted by Columbia Johannesburg 2 nd JODI Training ------ 29/01-2/02/07 ------ IEFS Eurostat IEA OPEC IMF APEC++ 4th JODI Training ------ 2008 ------ IEFS APEC IEA OPEC IMF 2009 Programme of Training December 2009 Internship also available
Expanding JODI oil to natural gas and others A triple development Joint Oil Data Initiative Organisations: APEC, Eurostat, IEF, IEA, OLADE, OPEC, UNSD, (GECF for gas)
Expanding JODI oil to natural gas and others Moving to an extended questionnaire Crude Oil LPG Petroleum Products Gasoline Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Fuel Oil Total Oil Production Imports Exports Refinery Output Imports Exports Stocks Closing Change Stocks Closing Change Refinery Intake Demand NGL Naphtha Product transfers Statistical Difference
JODI is much more than a database The JODI Database The Database is only the visible part of the iceberg InterEnerStat 6 Organisations + the IEFS Harmonisation + co-ordinationordination 90+ Countries Enormous progress in many countries Oil Companies Oil Analysts Strengthening of the links between companies, countries and analysts OECD/IEA, 2007
So, yes, we can all be proud of what we have achieved so far in increasing transparency, developing cooperation and strengthening the producer-consumer consumer dialogue
But there are remaining issues No major problems Crude Oil LPG Petroleum Products Gasoline Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Fuel Oil Delays Total Oil Confidentiality Production Refinery Output Imports Imports Exports Stocks Closing Change Exports Crude Oil Stocks Closing Change LPG Petroleum Products Gasoline Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Fuel Oil Total Oil Refinery Intake Production Demand Refinery Output Imports Exports Imports Crude Oil Exports LPG Petroleum Products Gasoline Kerosene Gas/Diesel Oil Fuel Oil Total Oil Closing Production Stocks Change Imports Refinery Intake Exports Stocks Demand Closing Refinery Output Change Imports Exports Stocks Closing Change Stocks Closing Change Refinery Intake Demand
The timeliness vs. quality issue 6% ation Quality - Devi 1% 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Quality=fn(time) M-1 M-2 M-3 M-4 M-5 M-6 M-7 M-8 M-9 M-1 Quality
Transparency: JODI will have achieved full transparency only if all Flows and Products are reported by all Countries flows products
95+ countries now in a position to report M-2 oil statistics compared to only 40 10 years ago 70 countries now in a position to report M-1 oil statistics compared to less than 10 10 years ago Transparency has improved Definitions of flows and products have been internationally harmonised Several organisations have harmonised their annual questionnaires Cooperation between organisations have been strengthened The profile of energy statistics and statisticians has been raised There is still volatility but blame is not anymore on bad statistics 4 3 2 Cairo 1 Mexico Riyadh Bangkok 5 Bali 7 6 Quito Riyadh Beijing And now, what do we want to achieve? Full transparency?