CO2 Reduction in Transportation (Automobile) February 13, 2008 Worldwide CO 2 Emissions and Anticipated Levels Drastic reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are necessary for the entire planet. Other 31.8% 4.3% India 4.8% 6.0% Japan Russia Worldwide CO 2 emissions in 2004 7.2 billion t-c (26.5 billion t-co 2 ) 12.8% 22.1% U.S.A. 18.1% China 15 EU countries Prepared by the Ministry of the Environment based on the Handbook of Energy & Economic Statistics in Japan (2007) 25 20 15 10 5 CO 2 emissions (carbon equivalent: 1 billion tons) Anticipated future CO 2 emissions 開発途上国 Developing countries Developed 先進国 countries 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 (Year) Source: Kainuma, et al., 2002: Climate Policy Assessment, Springer, p. 64 2 1
CO2 CO2 Emissions Increase Pattern in in the Road Transport Sector Economic growth Motorization Increase in number of vehicles and travel distance Increase in CO2 emissions 3 CO2 Emission in FY2006 in JAPAN Residential Sector 13% Commercial Sector 20% Others 13% 1.275billion t-co2 Industrial Sector 36% Transportation Sector 20% Automobile 90% Source:Ministry of the Environment 4 2
CO2 CO2 Emissions in in Japan s Road Transport Sector Continue to to Decrease After peaking in 2001, CO2 emissions generated in the road transport sector have been on the decrease. This is mainly attributable to 1) increased fuel efficiency, 2) improved traffic flow, and 3) effective utilization of vehicles. Million tons 270 260 250 250 258 Without any countermeasures 263 265 264 266 265 268 264 262 262 257 9 11 11 254 1)Increased fuel efficiency 2)Improved traffic flow 3) Reduced Mileage (Including effective utilization of vehicles) 240 230 229 233 238 220 210 217 200 1990 1995 2000 2006 Note: About 90% of CO2 emissions generated by Japan s transport sector are caused by road transportation. Source: Ministry of the Environment, JAMA 5 CO2 CO2Reduction Requires integrated Approaches Improving vehicle fuel efficiency alone is not enough to reduce CO2 emissions in the road transport sector. Integrated approaches are required, including development of alternative fuels, improvement of transportation infrastructure by the government and effective utilization of vehicles, which will ultimately make CO2 reduction efforts consistent with economic growth. All stakeholders concerned should define their individual responsibilities and make their best efforts to carry them out in cooperation with each other. Automakers Government Improvement of Fuel Efficiency Diversification of Automobile Energy Government Automakers Fuel suppliers Government Improvement of Traffic Flow Effective Utilization of Motor Vehicles Fleet operators Vehicle users Government 6 3
Average Fuel Efficiency 2010 Targets for Gasoline Vehicles Passenger cars Target : 1990 Performance : Improvement rate 22.8% Trucks (GVW 2.5) Target : 1990 Performance : Improvement rate 13.2% Calculated on the basis of weighted average values of fuel economy performance for the respective vehicle weight categories, assuming the same respective shipment volume ratios for 2010 as those recorded in 1995. Source:METI, MLIT 7 Trend of Average Fuel Efficiency of Gasoline-Powered Passenger Cars Mode fuel efficiency (new vehicle sales basis) 2010 fuel efficiency standard Holding mode fuel efficiency (in use basis) Actual driving fuel efficiency Fuel efficiency target for 2010 was calculated on the bases of weighted average values of fuel efficiency performance for the respective vehicle weight categories, assuming the same respective shipment volume ratios for 2010 as those recorded in 1995. Source:JAMA 8 4
9 Adoption Rates of Major Fuel Economy improvement Technologies Variable valve timing Estimation in 1998 Estimation in 1998 Source:JAMA 10 5
Green Taxation Plan 11 Average Fuel Efficiency 2015 Targets for Vehicles Passenger cars Target : 2004 Performance : Improvement rate 23.5% Trucks (GVW 3.5t) Target : 2004 Performance : Improvement rate 12.6% Buses (11passengers< & GVW 2.5t) Target : 2004 Performance : 8.3km/l Improvement rate 7.2% Calculated on the basis of weighted average values of fuel economy performance for the respective vehicle weight categories, assuming the same respective shipment volume ratios for 2015 as those recorded in 2004. Source:METI, MLIT 12 6
Policy to to Maximize the Potential for CO2 CO2Reduction Application of legally binding top runner criteria successfully led to remarkable improvements in energy efficiency. In setting a standard for the target year, technological improvement expected in the future is added to the top runner s performance level. Fuel Efficiency (km/l) 16 <Concept of Top Runner Criteria > 18km/L Best efficiency value 17km/L new target Future technology progress 16km/L 15km/L 15km/L average Efficiency improvement New target should be achieved on weighted average. 14km/L 13km/L average 12km/L Standard setting year Target year 13 Source :JAMA 14 7
Average Fuel Efficiency 2015 Targets for Heavy Duty Vehicles (GVW 3.5) Trucks Target : 2002 Performance : Improvement rate 12.2% Buses Target : 2002 Performance : Improvement rate 12.1% Calculated on the basis of weighted average values of fuel economy performance for the respective vehicle weight categories, assuming the same respective shipment volume ratios for 2015 as those recorded in 2002. Source:METI, MLIT 15 16 8
Improving Traffic Flow CO2 emission NOx emission Comparison of CO2 emission Comparison of CO2 emission Average Vehicle speed Average Vehicle speed Source :JARI 17 Source : MLIT 18 9
Source : MLIT 19 Source : MLIT 20 10
Source : MITI 21 22 11
Accelerate gently/slow down by decelerating (km/l) 20 Result of road test Fuel efficiency 18 16 14 17.2 17.7 17.9 15.4 15.6 15.5 Normal Eco Driving 12 Over 10% increase 10 Monitor A Monitor B Monitor C (Accelerate gently) (Slow down by decelerating) Source :Foundation for Promoting Personal Mobility and Ecological Transportation 23 Effects of of Eco-Driving Approximately 130 million tons of CO2 were emitted from private passenger cars in 2002. 1% increase in fuel efficiency 5% increase in fuel efficiency CO2 reduction: 1.3 million tons CO2 reduction: 6.5 million tons Huge reduction in CO2 emissions overall Source :JAMA 24 12
Source :JAMA 25 Diversification of of Automobile Energy Technologies Fuel-cell development was regarded as the most favorable scenario in the past. Diversified technologies have been promoted recently, including electric vehicles, diesel vehicles, and alternative fuels. Fuel-sell vehicles (FCV) Gasoline & Diesel Electric vehicles (EV) Hybrid vehicles (HV) Commuter EV Plug-in HV EV vehicles Diesel vehicles Clean diesel vehicles Diesel HV Alternative fuels Gasoline Diesel Bioethanol BDF, GTL, etc. Source :JAMA 26 13
Japan s Policy on on Biomass Fuel Governmental Target As an effort to reduce CO 2 emissions, 500,000 kiloliter (crude oil equivalent) of biomass fuel will be introduced for transport use by 2010. (Decided by the Cabinet on April 28, 2005 in Kyoto Protocol Target Achievement Plan.) Commitment Made by the Petroleum Association of Japan - Of the 500,000 kiloliter, 210,000kl (360,000kl as gasoline equivalent) will be replaced with ethanol by 2010. - Ethanol has to be made into ETBE before mixing with gasoline. - Under the Act on the Evaluation of Chemical Substances and Regulation of Their Manufacture, etc., ETBE is regarded as Class ⅡSpecified Chemical Substance. Necessary measures, including risk assessment, should be taken accordingly. Note) Demand for gasoline: 60.5 million kiloliter in 2006 In April 2007, test marketing of regular gasoline mixed with ETBE was started at 50 service stations in the Metropolitan area. 27 JAMA s Position on on Biomass Fuel It is necessary to actively promote the use of biomass fuel as part of energy diversification to curb global warming. Widespread use of bioethanol requires technological breakthroughs. In consideration of CO2 reduction effects, competition with the demand as food and water resource problems, development of cellulosic bioethanol production technology is considered most important. From the viewpoint of cost effectiveness, it is more desirable to promote the use of biomass fuel of low concentration level in broad areas than to introduce high concentrations in limited areas if the same amount is supplied. In response to the global trend toward biomass fuel use, development of E10 is promoted as automobile technology. 28 14